Darwin Núñez / signs for Liverpool

[foolsgold]

It's a lot of money for a reasonably unproven player and not a chance that we could afford to take.

We certainly need another forward as a Greenwood / Martial replacement but it's less important than midfield and defence. Hopefully we can get some value in the market somewhere

 

[romufc]

Imaging spending £85m on a striker that wont start every game when we have so many holes in our team.

We desperately need starting CB/CM/RW so, I am glad we did not get into a bidding war and sign or attempt to get him at that price.

 

[el_loco_bielsa]

There is a very clear rationale to this purchase. He's been bought because simply put, his shots to goals conversation rate over the last 12 months is unparalleled. It's better than haaland, salah, mbappe, vlahovic, lewandowski, benzema, nkunku - he's the best finisher bar none in world football right now according to the numbers - albeit whilst playing in an arguably weaker league than some of the others.

Couple that to the fact that he's only 22, probably has a great deal of further developing to do, is fully suited to this league due to his pace/strength, is a better presser than the likes of haaland and lewandowski and it becomes very clear why with the data team and the transfer strategy we have in place we feel it's a calculated risk to spend this much on this player.

Shots to goals conversion rate
Darwin Núñez - 31%
Erling Braut Haaland - 28%
Son Heung Min - 27%
Patrik Schick- 27%
Christopher Nkunku - 24%
Ciro Immobile - 23%
Robert Lewandowski - 22%
Karim Benzema - 21%
Sébastien Haller - 21%
Dušan Vlahović - 20%
Kylian Mbappé - 19%
Mohamed Salah - 19%
Lautaro Martínez - 18%
Cristiano Ronaldo - 16%
Victor Osimhen - 15%

Further to this, I suspect if we'd got over the line in either the league against city or in the CL against madrid, we might have been seeing a cheaper, safer option being brought in. As it is, klopp is basically buying himself a goalscorer. The rationale is clear - we made dozens of chances against madrid and also in our multitude of league-ending draws last season - put a finisher in there and convert just a couple or three of those chances in the league and CL final and you've got a completely different outcome to the season. It's the same thinking pep's employing.

 

[RobinLFC]

There is a very clear rationale to this purchase. He's been bought because simply put, his shots to goals conversation rate over the last 12 months is unparalleled. It's better than haaland, salah, mbappe, vlahovic, lewandowski, benzema, nkunku - he's the best finisher bar none in world football right now according to the numbers - albeit whilst playing in an arguably weaker league than some of the others.

Couple that to the fact that he's only 22, probably has a great deal of further developing to do, is fully suited to this league due to his pace/strength, is a better presser than the likes of haaland and lewandowski and it becomes very clear why with the data team and the transfer strategy we have in place we feel it's a calculated risk to spend this much on this player.

Shots to goals conversion rate
Darwin Núñez - 31%
Erling Braut Haaland - 28%
Son Heung Min - 27%
Patrik Schick- 27%
Christopher Nkunku - 24%
Ciro Immobile - 23%
Robert Lewandowski - 22%
Karim Benzema - 21%
Sébastien Haller - 21%
Dušan Vlahović - 20%
Kylian Mbappé - 19%
Mohamed Salah - 19%
Lautaro Martínez - 18%
Cristiano Ronaldo - 16%
Victor Osimhen - 15%

I don't think a lot of people question that he'll score goals for us, he will walk into one of the best attacks in the world. My biggest question mark surrounding him is that he'll be able to contribute in the build-up, holds up well, is able to connect with others in tight spaces, ... Basically whether he's technically gifted enough to operate without much room, because teams tend to sit back against us and defend in their own box.

I think if we need our #9 to drop back into midfield, receive the ball and contribute towards the general attacking play, Firmino is still the way to go untill Nunez proves he has it in him to do so as well.

 

[Offsideagain]

He’s gone to Liverpool anyway. Funny how they take a risk on an upriver player and finish a point behind City. Point is, our dithering Board will miss out on all the quality players whilst the other teams steam in and seal the deal, again.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[NicolaSacco]

It's a lot of money for a reasonably unproven player and not a chance that we could afford to take.

We certainly need another forward as a Greenwood / Martial replacement but it's less important than midfield and defence. Hopefully we can get some value in the market somewhere

Not for this thread really but it’s astonishing how little Utd have tried to improve that central midfield position. You could argue that they’ve genuinely tried (even if they’ve been unsuccessful) in the defensive positions; there are 5 or 6 players who came in for decent fees.

 

[Ole'sattheWheel]

God they’re even reporting his salary after tax to bring the price down. 120k euros a week apparently
Whenever we sign someone it’s always “450k pw”.
Of course they’re all pre-tax figures, with their signing fee, agent fee, goal bonuses etc all spread across the entirety of the contract

 

[Tavern in the town]

God they’re even reporting his salary after tax to bring the price down. 120k euros a week apparently
Whenever we sign someone it’s always “450k pw”.
Of course they’re all pre-tax figures, with their signing fee, agent fee, goal bonuses etc all spread across the entirety of the contract

Foreign press always report salaries after tax.

 

[RobinLFC]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

No one is really saying that anymore though, are they? And even then, the Alisson and Van Dijk fees were outliers supported by the Coutinho sale. Since the summer of 2018 we haven't really splashed cash for any deal apart form Núñez now imo.

Those "of all time" rankings of transfer fees are somewhat irrelevant or skewed as well given how they have increased compared to twenty or even ten years ago, and taking into account inflation. I don't think anyone believes Klopp has no money to acquire players at Liverpool, but it's also still a far cry from City's approach where they can basically buy whoever they want, of course. And Klopp has done very well during his seven years at the club so he himself has made sure there's more funds available to further strengthen the squad. FSG are generally quite tight with their money still.

 

[Kramer]

I am absolutely delighted we have not spent 100 M euros on this guy.

With his technical flaws and pressure of stepping up from the Portuguese to Premier League, he is a very high risk signing. Very likely he will fail miserably. At the very least, will come nowhere close to justifying his price tag. Very few players who go for that much actually do.

Pool were due a signing like this for a long while. They’ve been too spot on with each signing it’s been painful to watch. Adding Nunez, losing 100 M euros and losing Mane to Bayern will def weaken them.

City on the other hand just signed Haaland who will score goals for fun in that team. Only way that turns out poorly is if he has a bad injury record or if he upsets the dressing room dynamics with his salary.

 

[B20]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Wow. That is a bit of a shit club to join. Hope he does better than the other five on that list.

 

[sullydnl]

There is a very clear rationale to this purchase. He's been bought because simply put, his shots to goals conversation rate is unparalleled. It's better than haaland, salah, mbappe, vlahovic, lewandowski, benzema, nkunku - he's the best finisher bar none in world football right now according to the numbers - albeit whilst playing in an arguably weaker league than some of the others.

Couple that to the fact that he's only 22, probably has a great deal of further developing to do, is fully suited to this league due to his pace/strength, is a better presser than the likes of haaland and lewandowski and it becomes very clear why with the data team and the transfer strategy we have in place we feel it's a calculated risk to spend this much on this player.

Shots to goals conversion rate
Darwin Núñez - 31%
Erling Braut Haaland - 28%
Son Heung Min - 27%
Patrik Schick- 27%
Christopher Nkunku - 24%
Ciro Immobile - 23%
Robert Lewandowski - 22%
Karim Benzema - 21%
Sébastien Haller - 21%
Dušan Vlahović - 20%
Kylian Mbappé - 19%
Mohamed Salah - 19%
Lautaro Martínez - 18%
Cristiano Ronaldo - 16%
Victor Osimhen - 15%

Well, that's certainly one way to spin the numbers.

The other is that you've spent big money on a player off the back of one season of massive overperformance on his underlying stats and will be hoping it doesn't prove to be an anomaly.

The key difference with someone like Haaland being that City sign Haaland knowing he's maintained his extremely high conversion rates for 4+ years. Whereas just last season Nunez converted at around 11% in the league I believe?

Now it may well be that Liverpool's scouts (who don't rely on just stats) can see that he actually has suddenly developed into one of the best finishers in Europe this season and will continue to be so going forward rather than reverting heavily.

But from a purely statistical POV, if I was signing a player I'd be looking for the much more crucial skill of generating high xG and hoping he can finish above it to a sustainable degree rather than looking for the typically less repeatable skill of massive finishing overperformance.

 

[el_loco_bielsa]

I don't think a lot of people question that he'll score goals for us, he will walk into one of the best attacks in the world. My biggest question mark surrounding him is that he'll be able to contribute in the build-up, holds up well, is able to connect with others in tight spaces, ... Basically whether he's technically gifted enough to operate without much room, because teams tend to sit back against us and defend in their own box.

I think if we need our #9 to drop back into midfield, receive the ball and contribute towards the general attacking play, Firmino is still the way to go untill Nunez proves he has it in him to do so as well.

My feeling is that we'll see some variation in the formations we play next season, depending on the opposition. You could argue it's counterproductive to be playing an all-seasons-whatever-opposition 433 whether you're facing man city or wolves.

The season was skewered by the draws against top 6 opposition despite creating loads of chances, the draws/losses against mid and bottom of the table teams at the turn of the year again despite creating loads of chances, and the inability to covert a half dozen point blank chances vs courtois.

I see nunez killing those games because he's an instinctive finisher - playing in a 4231 rather than a 433. The numbers bear this out, and so does the eye test - if he didn't keep getting thwarted by marginal offside decisions against the best one on one keeper in the world and one of the top two or three defences in the world he'd have put six goals past VVD/konate/alisson over two legs looking at how many times he had the ball in the back of the net.

His touch needs refining, some of his general play needs refining, but what you can't teach is the instinctive first touch finishing with either foot or his head and the movement which allows him to repeatedly find space and a split second to get his shot or header away. And once he does, the numbers show he more often than not scores. I'd assume klopp thinks he can refine the touch and passing considering he's still a kid at 22.

 

[Banat]

As someone said, it's Coutinho money so it doesn't really count

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Andycoleno9]

That being said I think he will be a nightmare for defenders and will score goals

I am curious why do you think that? He is not bulky to bully defenders. He is not quick, he doesn't have some amazing technique and he is not involved much in build up of attacks.
Good attacker but that is it. He doesn't standout in anything

 

[el_loco_bielsa]

Well, that's certainly one way to spin the numbers.

The other is that you've spent big money on a player off the back of one season of massive overperformance on his underlying stats and will be hoping it doesn't prove to be an anomaly.

The key difference with someone like Haaland being that City sign Haaland knowing he's maintained his extremely high conversion rates for 4+ years. Whereas just last season Nunez converted at around 11% in the league I believe?

Now it may well be that Liverpool's scouts (who don't rely on just stats) can see that he actually has suddenly developed into the best finisher in Europe this season and will continue to be so going forward rather than reverting heavily.

But from a purely statistical POV, if I was signing a player I'd be looking for the much more crucial skill of generating high xG and hoping he can finish above it to a sustainable degree rather than looking for the typically less repeatable skill of massive finishing overperformance.

Indeed. The transfer philosophy dictates that you pick up the player either on the cusp of his breakout season or just after his breakout season, otherwise you end up massively overpaying and/or losing out to madrid. It's what we did with salah, diaz, mane - and what we didn't do with tchouameni last season. Nunez's fee currently is £64m rising to £85m if he fulfils all the targets.

You can bet your bottom dollar if he achieves his trajectory or even manages one more season like the one he's just had you're looking at benfica demanding £120m+ next year and madrid looking at him seriously to replace benzema. That's what it boils down to. They feel it's a calculated risk which is more likely to pay off than not, and if it pays off then you're looking at someone with potentially the profile of a cavani or an aguero. Time will tell.

 

[Trex]

Close thread

 

[Andycoleno9]

My feeling is that we'll see some variation in the formations we play next season, depending on the opposition. You could argue it's counterproductive to be playing an all-seasons-whatever-opposition 433 whether you're facing man city or wolves.

The season was skewered by the draws against top 6 opposition despite creating loads of chances, the draws/losses against mid and bottom of the table teams at the turn of the year again despite creating loads of chances, and the inability to covert a half dozen point blank chances vs courtois.

I see nunez killing those games because he's an instinctive finisher - playing in a 4231 rather than a 433. The numbers bear this out, and so does the eye test - if he didn't keep getting thwarted by marginal offside decisions against the best one on one keeper in the world and one of the top two or three defences in the world he'd have put six goals past VVD/konate/alisson over two legs looking at how many times he had the ball in the back of the net.

His touch needs refining, some of his general play needs refining, but what you can't teach is the instinctive first touch finishing with either foot or his head and the movement which allows him to repeatedly find space and a split second to get his shot or header away. And once he does, the numbers show he more often than not scores. I'd assume klopp thinks he can refine the touch and passing considering he's still a kid at 22.

You are Rawk through and through

 

[golden_blunder]

I am curious why do you think that? He is not bulky to bully defenders. He is not quick, he doesn't have some amazing technique and he is not involved much in build up of attacks.
Good attacker but that is it. He doesn't standout in anything

Did you not see him against Liverpool with arguably the best CB in the world struggling?
He scored 4 that day. Though 2 were disallowed he gave them a complete run around

now hopefully that is the exception and most times the ball bounces off him but I do worry

 

[el_loco_bielsa]

You are Rawk through and through

Says the guy who started a thread stating the following -

'Lindelof and Harry are so criticized here. As a pair and as individuals (i don't deny, i slated Harry often too). But when you look closely, who have better defensive duo? For which duo you would trade our duo? Not one of them, i am talking two for two trade.

For me only Dias and Laporte (not Stones) are better. Other central pairs are not even close to our guys.'

Excuse me whilst I spend the next half an hour laughing until I wee myself.

 

[KiD MoYeS]

Is Michael Edwards still at Liverpool, or is this their first post-Edwards signing?

 

[Redcy]

Honestly a high risk strategy and one that maybe Liverpool can pull off. He could either turn out to be the next haaland or the next Lukaku/Morata. With very little other options in the market maybe Liverpool think they need to gamble to win the league.

 

[Andycoleno9]

Says the guy who started a thread stating the following -

'Lindelof and Harry are so criticized here. As a pair and as individuals (i don't deny, i slated Harry often too). But when you look closely, who have better defensive duo? For which duo you would trade our duo? Not one of them, i am talking two for two trade.

For me only Dias and Laporte (not Stones) are better. Other central pairs are not even close to our guys.'

Excuse me whilst I spend the next half an hour laughing until I wee myself.

That season Harry and Lindelof were very good. And i stand what i said then.
Things change in football, you know? And they were kids then. 25, 26 years old. Hot prospects....by Rawk criteria

 

[Solius]

Hopefully we're moving swiftly on to the next target. If we don't have anything lined up then we'll be fecked for another season.

A club aspiring to be at the very top needs plans in place for everything. We should have lists of players for every single position to be ready for any scenario. We should even continue keeping tabs on managers because you just never know. I'm sure City and Liverpool have manager candidates already in mind for when Pep and Klopp go.

 

[el_loco_bielsa]

Is Michael Edwards still at Liverpool, or is this their first post-Edwards signing?

Our second post-edwards signing. The first one was luis diaz. It's Julian Ward in charge now, he was responsible for the diaz signing too. He was Edward's second in command for the last few years, and previous to that our main iberian scout - so I expect not much will change with the transfer setup.

 

[OmarUnited4ever]

Is Michael Edwards still at Liverpool, or is this their first post-Edwards signing?

Their new DoF Julian Ward negotiated this deal.

 

[::sonny::]

They can’t afford all this signings, I’m going to find where the bluff is

 

[Adam-Utd]

They can’t afford all this signings, I’m going to find where the bluff is

CL run literally paid for it.

 

[el_loco_bielsa]

Did you not see him against Liverpool with arguably the best CB in the world struggling?
He scored 4 that day. Though 2 were disallowed he gave them a complete run around

now hopefully that is the exception and most times the ball bounces off him but I do worry

Sums up what I've been saying upthread. Klopp was stood five yards away watching him put six past alisson across two legs from a series of difficult angles with two disallowed due to marginal offsides. He gave our defence and keeper a harder time than any other forward has this season.

The only other players that our midfield/defence/keeper have struggled against to this extent this season are de bruyne and possibly foden, and neither produced anywhere near as much end product across two legs as nunez did.

He's done the same in terms of producing the goods against all high profile sides he's played (bayern, barca, ajax) even if you ignore his conversion rate in his league.

 

[Devil may care]

I think the words used are not correct. It shouldn’t be “add-ons” , it should state “fee paid in stages”.

Yeah, that would make more sense as €15M should be added by the end of the season.

 

[RobinLFC]

Yeah, that would make more sense as €15M should be added by the end of the season.

More likely €5m - if he surpasses 60 games though I'll happily take that as it would mean deep runs in the CL and another cup competition.

 

[F-A-C-T-S]

Does this guy have blistering pace or not? It would be nice for them to lose some of the frightening speed they had up front with Mané going.

 

[Rolaholic]

Does this guy have blistering pace or not? It would be nice for them to lose some of the frightening speed they had up front with Mané going.

Definitely has got pace to burn

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

His acceleration looks explosive in the clips I've seen

 

[RVN1991]

Wow. That is a bit of a shit club to join. Hope he does better than the other five on that list.

Hope he reaches the dizzying heights the others on the list did.

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

Insane money. Now I know I would not want to buy him for that sum if we take that money from other transfers. I also think the money we spent on Sancho was too high.

For a player from a weaker league it is really far too much, but he is young and if he turns into a top player it can be worth it.

I feel though it is more Liverpool having a lot of money and wanting to spend it to replace Mane rather than him being worth so much.

 

[KiD MoYeS]

Although I'm sure he'll play 98% of Liverpool games next season with no fitness issues, I do wonder what happens if he does get an injury with Liverpool presumably shifting the style to accommodate a more traditional number nine.

 

[KirkDuyt]

It's amazing how much money Portuguese clubs get for their players even though said clubs have been average for years.

How is this Vivianne Miedema look-a-like worth 100 million.

 

[RedorDead21]

I am curious why do you think that? He is not bulky to bully defenders. He is not quick, he doesn't have some amazing technique and he is not involved much in build up of attacks.
Good attacker but that is it. He doesn't standout in anything

I always think that about Kane…but he improved massively at everything under dubious managers at spurs…this lad is young and people saying it’s going to fail is odd given klopp is one of the worlds best coaches.

 

[Cnaiür urs Skiötha]

Liverpool are in a completely different situation compared to us. For them it’s about strengthening a few positions while we need a whole new spine.
Spending a big part of our budget on a striker who shows great potential but still needs to proof he is worth the hype would not have been a wise idea.