Darwin Núñez / signs for Liverpool

[Adam-Utd]

It's true that they are against tougher teams but that's a better matrix to judge him by. Furthermore, the eye test shows he struggles in the build-up too. I think he's a good player and would do a job but how long before people are on his back.



His domestic report backs this up.

Just because Benfica don't use him to build up, doesn't mean he struggles at it.

He also prefers to ball carry. He will pull into the channel, get the ball to feet and take his man on rather than drop deep to play a 5 yard pass.

He's quite simply a work horse target man with great finishing. Is he the type of striker to play tiki taka football? no probably not.

If you put him on the end of a cross or a through ball will he finish it for you? yes.

Ten Hags direct style of football is well suited to this type of forward.

 

[Giggsyking]

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[Widow]

If you put him on the end of a cross or a through ball will he finish it for you? yes

Like Ronaldo? Yes. Like Lakaku? Yes.

We lack a forward that activity helps in the build up. Nunez has 26 league goals with an XG of 15.7, For context, Salah scored 22 with an XG of 23.3, Kane, 16 from an XG of 19.98, Mbappe 26 from 21 XG. Massively out performing your XG isn't usually sustainable, especially in a tougher league.

This is a break out season for him, he has underwhelmed before now. Maybe due to his age but he still managed 44 appearances scoring just the 6 league goals and 14 in total last season.

It appears A Madrid are interested going on the morning reports but if we did sign him I hope he'd prove me wrong.

 

[Adam-Utd]

Like Ronaldo? Yes. Like Lakaku? Yes.

We lack a forward that activity helps in the build up. Nunez has 26 league goals with an XG of 15.7, For context, Salah scored 22 with an XG of 23.3, Kane, 16 from an XG of 19.98, Mbappe 26 from 21 XG. Massively out performing your XG isn't usually sustainable, especially in a tougher league.

This is a break out season for him, he has underwhelmed before now. Maybe due to his age but he still managed 44 appearances scoring just the 6 league goals and 14 in total last season.

It appears A Madrid are interested going on the morning reports but if we did sign him I hope he'd prove me wrong.

You're comparing old teams with an old style.

Under Ten Hag with proper build up play we won't need a striker to be involved to get the ball moving forward up the pitch.

As you say yes it's been a great year for him. He's obviously improved from previous years, that isn't unusual for a young striker. Whether this is a permanent improvement or a flash in the pan is what the scouts are paid for.

Personally, from what I've seen of him he is consistent enough in what he does that yes he is worth taking the risk on.

He isn't just a goal scorer, he works damn hard for the team. He is constantly running, whether off or on the ball. Defensively he's closing down and tracking runners, offensively he's running the channel and carrying the ball, taking on players 1v1.

He isn't anything like Lukaku in that sense, who prefers to stand and ball watch until the ball gets close to him in the box.

I've watched his goal compilation for over the past year and only a few of those finishes are long range or something out of the norm. Most of his goals are finishing off crosses, getting shots away inside the box etc.

I get why people might be reluctant from his 'passing stats' but a lot of that is usually out of context anyway, for me that isn't important as a striker. From what I've seen of him it doesn't look that untidy anyway. A few loose passes here and there but nothing that screams out awful. The big test for me was the 2 liverpool matches and IMO he showed he is more than capable of playing in this league. He was a fawn to the Liverpool defence more than most players i've seen against them this year.

That is a truer test for me than any stat website.

 

[SAF is the GOAT]

That will be a hard deal to do now that Atletico moved Suarez on and they need a replacement for him.

I would imagine that PSG will want him too instead of Mbappe

 

[Uniquim]

If this is the guy we want for the striker position, we should move in quickly and decisively, but most reports say that our Ten Hag meetings so far haven't been focused on recruitment. It seems Benfica expect him to leave, have a value expected for him (reportedly around €60m), and have identified his replacement, as per Ornstein.

Really eager to set how we operate in the transfer market this summer. Hopefully we're done with the dilly-dallying of not completing deals until the last day.

 

[RkkMan]

That will be a hard deal to do now that Atletico moved Suarez on and they need a replacement for him.

I would imagine that PSG will want him too instead of Mbappe

Di Marzio already said he's heading to the PL.

 

[AltiUn]

If the price is too high just get Richarlison.

He doesn’t score anywhere near enough goals.

 

[VinzentFTW]

60m euroes sounds about right for him.

 

[sullydnl]

He doesn’t score anywhere near enough goals.

In his two best seasons for Everton he returned 13 league goals. Bearing in mind the scale of Nunez' overperformance this season as highlighted by @Widow above, how many more league goals than that would you realistically expect from Nunez here?

Not that I want Richarlison particularly but I don't think anyone we've been linked with for the CF position is a goals monster and I wouldn't put that great an expectation on any of them in that sense, Nunez included. What's important is what they add as an overall package.

 

[SAF is the GOAT]

60m euros is pretty much 43m pounds + 8.5m in add ons - that's a decent price especially after the figures we've heard before(70-80m euros)

 

[AltiUn]

In his two best seasons for Everton he returned 13 league goals. Bearing in mind the scale of Nunez' overperformance this season as highlighted by @Widow above, how many more league goals than that would you realistically expect from Nunez here?

Not that I want Richarlison particularly but I don't think anyone we've been linked with for the CF position is particularly a goals monster and I wouldn't put that great an expectation on any of them in that sense, Nunez included. What's important is what they add as an overall package.

I don’t really want Nunez either.

 

[golden_blunder]

Re richarlison, mane wasn’t a goal machine either at Southampton. But with better players and a better system, richarlison is a player who could be ready to step up

 

[yamo123x]

Just hope we are decisive in the summer market for once, long drawn out sagas are not what we need.

 

[STaphouse]

Richarlison cost Everton the best part of £50m. People are acting like he'd be a cheap alternative.

 

[Blood Mage]

I still don't want him. Flash in the pan. A player outperforming their xG is always a red flag.

 

[KiD MoYeS]

Without knowing much about him as a player, isn't he more of a target man than a pressing forward? It looks like Ronaldo is staying next season so not sure this signing is massively important.

 

[sullydnl]

I still don't want him. Flash in the pan. A player outperforming their xG is always a red flag.

It is definitely a red flag but you also have to consider the level he'd be regressing to.

Imagine if instead of scoring 26 league goals from 15.7 xG he had scored a more sustainable 16 league goals. If we thought he'd be able to replicate that in the PL (big if) while also being a workhorse up front, that's still not bad.

16 goals would currently put him as the joint fourth highest goalscorer in the league, on par with Kane and ahead of the likes of Mane, Jota, KDB, Sterling, etc. If you told me he'd get 14-16 league goals next season while also suiting ETH's system then I'd take it. Especially as at 22 he has scope to keep improving.

This season's overperformance is only a problem if we're depending on that inflated level of returns continuing or paying an exorbitant price off the back of them.

 

[FrankDrebin]

Without knowing much about him as a player, isn't he more of a target man than a pressing forward? It looks like Ronaldo is staying next season so not sure this signing is massively important.

Ronaldo's 37 and our only forward. We need a striker and a long term one at that.

 

[Adam-Utd]

I still don't want him. Flash in the pan. A player outperforming their xG is always a red flag.

Posts like this always make me laugh. if he was under performing his xG would you want him then?

 

[MattofManchester]

If he joins Atletico, I'm more interested in what happens to Felix with Griezmann and Nunez being the main men.

Posts like this always make me laugh. if he was under performing his xG would you want him then?

Posts like this always make me laugh given it's not really that difficult to understand. If a player vastly outperforms their xG, it means the level isn't sustainable. An example would be Son and Kane at Spurs under Mourinho. They vastly overperformed their xG in the early parts, but once it started balancing out to a more reasonable level, Spurs stopped scoring goals.
He is having a huge season, but it's doubtful that he will be able to replicate it, and even then, he looks a very limited footballer who works hard and has a good finish, but is horrible on the ball. If he's not scoring, he would offer nothing in a match, which is a trait that our current forwards already have.

 

[GledTheRed]

Richarlison cost Everton the best part of £50m. People are acting like he'd be a cheap alternative.

Is his contract expiring?

 

[yumtum]

Is his contract expiring?

2024 - signed a new one in December 2019.

 

[Adam-Utd]

If he joins Atletico, I'm more interested in what happens to Felix with Griezmann and Nunez being the main men.


Posts like this always make me laugh given it's not really that difficult to understand. If a player vastly outperforms their xG, it means the level isn't sustainable. An example would be Son and Kane at Spurs under Mourinho. They vastly overperformed their xG in the early parts, but once it started balancing out to a more reasonable level, Spurs stopped scoring goals.
He is having a huge season, but it's doubtful that he will be able to replicate it, and even then, he looks a very limited footballer who works hard and has a good finish, but is horrible on the ball. If he's not scoring, he would offer nothing in a match, which is a trait that our current forwards already have.

The point is people wouldn't mention it if he was underperforming his xG you plum.

Whether he over performs it 1 year or underperforms it next year, is really quite irrelevant. As long as he is a consistent finisher that gets into goal scoring chances regularly, that's all that matters.

The fact you say he would offer nothing if he's not scoring shows you don't know much about him. He isn't a goal hanger that does zero off the ball work.

He definitely doesn't look limited either. Nowhere near to the extend you guys try to make out that's for sure. I've seen worse strikers in the PL already.

Using Son and Kane is a pretty poor example. Players go in and out of form. Does that mean they are not good players if they stopped over performing?.

Suddenly once Mourinho left and Conte joined they're back to smashing in goals and assists left right and centre. Almost as if they're still decent players? good job they didn't sell him once they xG fell off

 

[Widow]

If he joins Atletico, I'm more interested in what happens to Felix with Griezmann and Nunez being the main men.


Posts like this always make me laugh given it's not really that difficult to understand. If a player vastly outperforms their xG, it means the level isn't sustainable. An example would be Son and Kane at Spurs under Mourinho. They vastly overperformed their xG in the early parts, but once it started balancing out to a more reasonable level, Spurs stopped scoring goals.
He is having a huge season, but it's doubtful that he will be able to replicate it, and even then, he looks a very limited footballer who works hard and has a good finish, but is horrible on the ball. If he's not scoring, he would offer nothing in a match, which is a trait that our current forwards already have.

Spot on

 

[Teja]

If he joins Atletico, I'm more interested in what happens to Felix with Griezmann and Nunez being the main men.


Posts like this always make me laugh given it's not really that difficult to understand. If a player vastly outperforms their xG, it means the level isn't sustainable. An example would be Son and Kane at Spurs under Mourinho. They vastly overperformed their xG in the early parts, but once it started balancing out to a more reasonable level, Spurs stopped scoring goals.
He is having a huge season, but it's doubtful that he will be able to replicate it, and even then, he looks a very limited footballer who works hard and has a good finish, but is horrible on the ball. If he's not scoring, he would offer nothing in a match, which is a trait that our current forwards already have.

Son has always wildly overperformed his xG though.

	Perf	Expe
Season	Gls	xG
2017-2018	12	10.4
2018-2019	12	7.6
2019-2020	11	8.9
2020-2021	17	10.3
2021-2022	21	14.5
Tott	91	51.7

[thead] [/thead]

And I'm not being nitpicky - there are some freaks of nature like Messi who just have insane finishing ability.

 

[Tavern in the town]

Posts like this always make me laugh. if he was under performing his xG would you want him then?

Depends on a whole load of factors but yes, why not? If he’s a young player then there’s every chance he sorts out his finishing and becomes a real goalscorer. Jota heavily underperformed xG at Wolves, Liverpool took a punt and now he’s a goal machine.

 

[Sarni]

Is xG for a striker not more indicative of team's general performance rather than that player's ability? Obviously you need to find yourself in position to score but it's going to be heavily impacted by creativity of other players.

 

[Tavern in the town]

Is xG for a striker not more indicative of team's general performance rather than that player's ability? Obviously you need to find yourself in position to score but it's going to be heavily impacted by creativity of other players.

Partly but I think people put too much emphasis on service. Someone like Ronaldo has been getting into great positions for us this season and has reasonably good xG numbers despite playing in an absolute shit show of a team. Aubameyang had a 30 goal season for an awful Arsenal team. Ferran Torres didn’t have great xG numbers in a City team that creates chances for fun. Good movement and penalty box instincts will always show imo.

 

[Widow]

Son has always wildly overperformed his xG though.

	Perf	Expe
Season	Gls	xG
2017-2018	12	10.4
2018-2019	12	7.6
2019-2020	11	8.9
2020-2021	17	10.3
2021-2022	21	14.5
Tott	91	51.7

[thead] [/thead]

And I'm not being nitpicky - there are some freaks of nature like Messi who just have insane finishing ability.

Apart from this year and arguably last, I wouldn't say that's wildly over performing.

 

[Widow]

Is xG for a striker not more indicative of team's general performance rather than that player's ability? Obviously you need to find yourself in position to score but it's going to be heavily impacted by creativity of other players.

XG is calculated by comparing it to thousands of shots recorded earlier based on factors such as distance, position of defenders, type and speed of pass, type of shot, shot angles and various other aspects. It's more about the finish than the setup.

 

[Adam-Utd]

Depends on a whole load of factors but yes, why not? If he’s a young player then there’s every chance he sorts out his finishing and becomes a real goalscorer. Jota heavily underperformed xG at Wolves, Liverpool took a punt and now he’s a goal machine.

This is what i'm trying to say though. People using xG as a reason to sign or not sign a player is just bonkers.

Greenwood went way over his xG in his first season, then dipped again the next. Did that make him a bad player? or just a bit out of form?

I don't think any club will be using this as part of their decision to sign a player. There are MANY different things that are more important to take notice of first IMO.

Football stats can only be used in combination with context of real life footage.

 

[Teja]

Apart from this year and arguably last, I wouldn't say that's wildly over performing.

Why break it down by season? He has 91G from 51.7xG. That is pretty insane.

 

[roonster09]

Apart from this year and arguably last, I wouldn't say that's wildly over performing.

Convert that into percentage and you will see how much he is outperforming his xG.

 

[zaafi]

Gone are the days where you only rely on your strikers to score goals. Look at City - 96 goals in Premier League with one game left, and they don't even play with a striker. If Ten Hag wants Núñez, there is probably a reason for it. And his movement and physicality would drag defenders onto him, making way for our other forwards (or Bruno) to score goals, which is a huge part of a striker's game. If he can even score 17-18 goals next season, create space for our other forwards to score goals AND work his socks off every game, that would be an absolutely massive acquisition. We don't want another Lukaku who just sits in offside position and wait for the ball.

 

[Adam-Utd]

Son has always wildly overperformed his xG though.

	Perf	Expe
Season	Gls	xG
2017-2018	12	10.4
2018-2019	12	7.6
2019-2020	11	8.9
2020-2021	17	10.3
2021-2022	21	14.5
Tott	91	51.7

[thead] [/thead]

And I'm not being nitpicky - there are some freaks of nature like Messi who just have insane finishing ability.

So would this make you sign Son? or would you say his luck is about to run out

 

[Widow]

This is what i'm trying to say though. People using xG as a reason to sign or not sign a player is just bonkers.

This is modern football and XG is used by the top teams when scouting.

 

[Widow]

Why break it down by season? He has 91G from 51.7xG. That is pretty insane.

He is an insane player though, right?

 

[Widow]

So would this make you sign Son? or would you say his luck is about to run out

Who mentioned luck?

Yes, this would make me buy Son over Nunez. Son has years of stats to fall back on, Nunez has one.

 

[Widow]

Why break it down by season? He has 91G from 51.7xG. That is pretty insane.

Looking at his stats in full....



Son has 102 goals from an XG of 72 it's shorter but still insane. The argument is backed up by the stats though. Son has out performed over many seasons showing he's class, we all accept that, right? Nunez has had one great season. I accept Nunez is a lot younger and naturally he won't have the years Son has but history tells us that over performing xG at this level isn't usually sustainable.