Data : Why Scoring Goals is more important than Conceding Less

[Skills]

Disclaimer - I am not a statistician. Some nerd on here would do most likely do a much better job than my attempt.

Outside of the obvious reason that you need to score a goal to win a game, and winning a game gives you three points which is worth more than 0 or 1 points.

This data is from seasons 12/13 through to seasons 18/19:

All I've done is plot the number of goals scored (blue) and goals conceded (orange) on the y-axis vs the the number of points a team gained over the course of a season on the x-axis. Then using my friend excel I found the R2 of each of those data-sets.

For the entire PL (between 12/13 and 18/19) the data indicates

• a stronger correlation between goals scored and points scored
• than between goals conceded and points scored.
• The difference between the R2s is even bigger if you look at the data for the Top 7 only (i.e. Champions League contenders/pretenders).

Now what I've done here is I've normalised the number of points scored/goals scored/goals conceded in each season. I thought this would account for seasons where points totals are lower, and compare goal scored/conceded with the position you will finish.

Basically for each season the team that scored the most points is assigned 1, the team conceding the least is assigned 1 and the team that scored the most goals is assigned 1. Then Points/GF/GA just become ratio.

I.e. 1st place got 100 points = 1. Another team got 80 points = 0.8 etc. Top scoring team scored 100 goals = 1. Another team got 80 goals = 0.8

Long story short - the trend seams to be the same.

• a stronger correlation between goals scored and how high you will finish
• weaker correlation between goals conceded and how high you will finish
• Holds true for the top 7 too.

Anyways, re-iterating my disclaimer at the top. I am not a statistician, feel free to critique my poor stat work.

 

[simonhch]

You're not a statistician.
Good analysis though.

 

[Crashoutcassius]

possible that the successful teams in this period have been attacking teams?

 

[Samid]

Cheers Michael Owen.

 

[R.N7]

I like the plasmic nature of your data modelling, nice!

 

[The Cat]

Nice one let's get Bale on loan.

 

[Annihilate Now!]

Is it true that scoring more goals then the opposition wins you games?

 

[AaronRedDevil]

Look at Leicester. They won by out scoring everyone. Even Uniteds defence was pretty good at the early stages of Ole's reign. Because they attacked like crazy. Better the attack the better the defence will be.

 

[Snow]

Look at Leicester. They won by out scoring everyone. Even Uniteds defence was pretty good at the early stages of Ole's reign. Because they attacked like crazy. Better the attack the better the defence will be.

Tottenham and City scored more than Leicester that season. Spurs even had the best goal difference and finished 3rd.

 

[Random Task]

"I am a firm believer that if you score one goal, the other team has to score two to win"

By Howard Wilkinson.

 

[edcunited1878]

3 points are worth more than a draw or a loss

 

[MalcolmTucker]

I like the plasmic nature of your data modelling, nice!

Just like to use this post to acknowledge this reference

 

[montpelier]

I wanted to score this excellent piece of analysis 10/10, but unfortunately had to deduct 5 marks because of the 'less' in the thread title.

Good effort, though. Very interesting.

And nice graphs. I like the graphs.

 

[Physiocrat]

It would be interesting if someone did this when it was two points for a win. I imagine the correlations would be much closer between scoring and conceding.

 

[CallyRed]

Pretty sure this was my dissertation

 

[JPRouve]

Is it true that scoring more goals then the opposition wins you games?

It's actually a myth.

 

[Keeps It tidy]

You can always score more goals you can not hold teams to less than zero.

 

[MalBot]

Hmm. So the solution to finishing higher is to concentrate more on scoring goals than conceding them?

 

[Skills]

You can always score more goals you can not hold teams to less than zero.

True. That gets accounted for though, when I normalised the data?

Hmm. So the solution to finishing higher is to concentrate more on scoring goals than stopping the opposition from scoring ?

Fixed and correct.

 

[Skills]

Tottenham and City scored more than Leicester that season. Spurs even had the best goal difference and finished 3rd.

Yup. Us and Spurs had conceded the least goals that season and we finished 5th.

I don't think you can try and fit individual cases to data like this though. The point of this is to just highlight a general trend.

 

[LiquidSnake]

I like your analysis but it would be cool if you changed your pool of data, to have a bit of perspective :

1) Could you do the same thing in another league... Let's say La Liga. For example this year I feel like defensive records are better than ever while goalscoring (besides Barça) was absolutely dreadfull. Some teams like Getafe or Valencia might end up in UCL while not scoring better than half the team in the bottom 8 or so.

2) Could you do the same in a league when there was 2pts win ?

Also not quite the same, but how does that work for relegation. You did top 7, but I would like to see, let's say for bottom 5.

It might take you hell of a time to do it anyway

 

[montpelier]

You can always score more goals you can not hold teams to less than zero.

Or less fewer than they have already scored.

 

[Skills]

Or less fewer than they have already scored.

Lesser

 

[Skills]

I like your analysis but it would be cool if you changed your pool of data, to have a bit of perspective :

1) Could you do the same thing in another league... Let's say La Liga. For example this year I feel like defensive records are better than ever while goalscoring (besides Barça) was absolutely dreadfull. Some teams like Getafe or Valencia might end up in UCL while not scoring better than half the team in the bottom 8 or so.

2) Could you do the same in a league when there was 2pts win ?

Also not quite the same, but how does that work for relegation. You did top 7, but I would like to see, let's say for bottom 5.

It might take you hell of a time to do it anyway

I have that data I just didn't bother posting it. It's all a mess for the relegation fodder, I'll post it tonight.

 

[Adam-Utd]

Hmm. So the solution to finishing higher is to concentrate more on scoring goals than conceding them?

I'd imagine Bournemouth are a good source for that.

When they lose, they lose by a lot of goals. When they win, they score plenty. Rarely do they get a 1-0.

Compare them to say Brighton who have concentrated on trying to achieve 1-0's and they come out on top.

 

[Adisa]

I think the adage that defence wins titles is outdated.

 

[Skills]

I think the adage that defence wins titles is outdated.

I don't think it's been true since wins became worth 3 points.

 

[Sylar]

I think the adage that defence wins titles is outdated.

Yeah, esp for champions League. Look at the overall scorelines for the semis and even the quarters. It's been all about scoring goals
And has been for the last few seasons too

I reckon inter under Jose was the last time defending meant more than attacking (might be wrong as I reckon Chelsea also did this but they also had loads of luck haha)

 

[Hammerfell]

I don't remember Data saying that.

 

[Rory 7]

Eh. Ok. Professor Keegan.

 

[Skills]

Eh. Ok. Professor Keegan.

Keegan's Newcastle never outscored United. Did have a better defensive record in one of the seasons

 

[Dutsey]

Who would have thought it scoring more and conceding less gets you more points.

 

[Skills]

Who would have thought it scoring more and conceding less gets you more points.

And who'd have thought one of those two things is definitively more effective than the other!

 

[Treble]

Defences win you points, attacks win you titles.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I wonder how this data would stack up if you assumed each team started with a one goal lead. Would going all out for additional goals be more important than shutting up shop to avoid conceding?

 

[Dutsey]

Defences win you points, attacks win you titles.

Not quite true, look at our foes Liverpool the signing of One Defender and goalkeeper elevated that team. Ferguson always said attacks win you games defences win you titles.

 

[afrocentricity]

Erm.... Obviously?

 

[Rooney in Paris]

Wait - this is a real thread?

 

[Skills]

Not quite true, look at our foes Liverpool the signing of One Defender and goalkeeper elevated that team. Ferguson always said attacks win you games defences win you titles.

I think that was just to fool his rivals into investing in their defenses, while he constantly stacked his attacks and won title after title. His answer to winning the title in his last season was to buy RVP, and he stuck with a defense which cost him a title by conceding 4 against Everton and 6 against City.

 

[Treble]

Not quite true, look at our foes Liverpool the signing of One Defender and goalkeeper elevated that team. Ferguson always said attacks win you games defences win you titles.

Well, City's attack trumped Liverpool's defence, even though only marginally. City lost 4 games and Liverpool only 1, but City's quality in attack secured them more wins and points. Fergie might have been right back then but probably not now.