[BenitoSTARR]

How many points has he won us?

This is a good question. Of which I don’t have the answer as I haven’t analysed all 120 shots against him. Anyone know?

What I will say is he’s not won us enough points this season as indicated by his XGA. He’s saving what he should but not pulling off on average a world class level. Especially when compared with his outstanding performances of previous seasons.

His issue for me has not been mistakes but that he is not meeting the very high standards we expect of him. His performances have absolutely dropped below his peak WC level the question is what should an acceptable level be for our GK?

I personally don’t believe his drop has lost us many points and we have been good defensively 2nd best in the league so it’s hard to be overly critical. These fine margins however are the difference between champions and also rans

What's causing you issues isn't my concern. This thread isn't about Henderson either.

I appreciate that but why not offer some insights yourself than making silly comments.

Id be interested to know what level you’d expect Our GK to be at. What would you class as good XGA?

I've watched every game. It's clear it is an issue, one that used to be masked by his extraordinary saving ability. The issue he faces is that that is no longer cancelling out the other.

Whether Henderson is any better i dont know.

I think we’ll agree to disagree I too have watched them all. He stays on his line more than more modern GKs but most of our shots conceded and goals aren’t from positions where rushing out would have been advantageous.

Or do you mean coming for crosses? I agree he’s been shocking at that this season.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

100% this, not only that, how deep our defence have to drop because he won't play the role of sweeper-keeper and come out of his area when we're on the attack. The gap between our midfield and defence is criminal sometimes, we just invite pressure when we lose the ball and give the opposition an easy long ball option.

This is a good question too. And I do believe a sweeper keeper would help us press higher up the pitch. I believe we have averaged a higher press this season of about 2m up the pitch (I posted this in the Matic thread)

Henderson isn’t a sweeper keeeper though so we would have to look externally for this.

Any suggestions?

Deano is a puncher. His aerial ability is decent. Don't expect him to be super commanding and catch them confidently like VDS, he is actually similar to De Gea in many ways but is also very brave coming off his line, sometimes a bit too much and gets caught out. But thats what the loan is for.

Henderson is more proactive than De Gea in coming for crosses but yeah he punches regularly. He’s dropped more than De Gea too 4 drops v 1 drop.

 

[Adnan]

This is a good question. Of which I don’t have the answer as I haven’t analysed all 120 shots against him. Anyone know?

What I will say is he’s not won us enough points this season as indicated by his XGA. He’s saving what he should but not pulling off on average a world class level. Especially when compared with his outstanding performances of previous seasons.

His issue for me has not been mistakes but that he is not meeting the very high standards we expect of him. His performances have absolutely dropped below his peak WC level the question is what should an acceptable level be for our GK?

I personally don’t believe his drop has lost us many points and we have been good defensively 2nd best in the league so it’s hard to be overly critical. These fine margins however are the difference between champions and also rans


I appreciate that but why not offer some insights yourself than making silly comments.

Id be interested to know what level you’d expect Our GK to be at. What would you class as good XGA?

I think we’ll agree to disagree I too have watched them all. He stays on his line more than more modern GKs but most of our shots conceded and goals aren’t from positions where rushing out would have been advantageous.

Or do you mean coming for crosses? I agree he’s been shocking at that this season.

What was the silly comment I made?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

True so perhaps the issue with XG lies elsewhere but it is not in a handful of mistakes comparable to Henderson’s.

Now you are asking really good questions what is Henderson doing to have a better XGA than De Gea this is an excellent question to look into.

The problem is the answer isn’t straightforward but people don’t like that.

It is straight forward though, those stats judge his performance against the average of his peers for all shots over the course of the season so far. It's highly contextualised. It says that Henderson has been an excellent shot stopper overall whilst DDG has been average.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

2. Against SHU away, their third should have been stopped. Arguably the second too. Not clear errors but not the best keeping.

@BenitoSTARR

This is why xG data is so good. It eliminates subjective bias and judges a keeper against the average in similar situation. It tells you how likely a forward is to score from there and how likely the keeper is to stop it. You may think these were not errors but xG data can put an objective value on that.

 

[Stacks]

Little Glace of his mistakes this season. Some cost us valuable points

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Damn. This is hard to watch. Looks like I am watching someone else

 

[midnightmare]

@BenitoSTARR

This is why xG data is so good. It eliminates subjective bias and judges a keeper against the average in similar situation. It tells you how likely a forward is to score from there and how likely the keeper is to stop it. You may think these were not errors but xG data can put an objective value on that.

Yeah. Boils down to the law of averages when it comes to xG. Sure, you can say "striker may not have hit it cleanly" but equally, in some cases, there may have been ridiculously good shots from low-probability areas. If the body of data is large enough, this gets averaged out. This is why xG / xGA numbers for a game / short run aren't really something I take seriously, but over a season, you absolutely can draw conclusions. I won't go into the details, but you could tell from 2017-18's xG / xGA numbers where things were headed. Similarly, this season, look at DdG's numbers over the season and you can tell the tale.

Normalizing for goals conceded, Henderson is way ahead of DdG in terms of gap between xGA and GA (+14.4 vs +1.1). That's a ridiculous amount and save % just doesn't tell the tale. The metric of "quality of shots faced" for example, has DdG facing shots of much lower quality on average. This will not get reflected in save % but will show up in the xGA vs GA gap.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

What was the silly comment I made?

Saying Henderson isn’t the only GK.

Also are you deliberately ignoring all the other points now?

It is straight forward though, those stats judge his performance against the average of his peers for all shots over the course of the season so far. It's highly contextualised. It says that Henderson has been an excellent shot stopper overall whilst DDG has been average.

They don’t tell you how he is doing it. Or what he is doing that De Gea isn’t. My point is we need to look at what Henderson is doing that means he’s better. The number proves he’s doing something better we need to then look at what that something is.

It’s also possible to build up 8+ from a culmination of lots of 0.3XGs etc.

So we need to establish is he making lots of slightly above average saves where the XG is positive but not high or is he pulling off the odd high XG save?

@BenitoSTARR

This is why xG data is so good. It eliminates subjective bias and judges a keeper against the average in similar situation. It tells you how likely a forward is to score from there and how likely the keeper is to stop it. You may think these were not errors but xG data can put an objective value on that.

I agree it’s really good and really useful I’ve never claimed otherwise.

But a mistake leading to a goal is different to not saving an XG.

 

[crossy1686]

It doesn't really matter what any of us think anyway, if he loses the confidence of the defence in front of him, he's finished. It's easier to replace him than it is to replace a whole back 4 that trust him again.

 

[Raven]

I really don't envy him. The pressure he's feeling must be immense. It's the first time I've seen (or at least properly noticed) a professional footballer get spooked.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Yeah. Boils down to the law of averages when it comes to xG. Sure, you can say "striker may not have hit it cleanly" but equally, in some cases, there may have been ridiculously good shots from low-probability areas. If the body of data is large enough, this gets averaged out. This is why xG / xGA numbers for a game / short run aren't really something I take seriously, but over a season, you absolutely can draw conclusions. I won't go into the details, but you could tell from 2017-18's xG / xGA numbers where things were headed. Similarly, this season, look at DdG's numbers over the season and you can tell the tale.

Normalizing for goals conceded, Henderson is way ahead of DdG in terms of gap between xGA and GA (+14.4 vs +1.1). That's a ridiculous amount and save % just doesn't tell the tale. The metric of "quality of shots faced" for example, has DdG facing shots of much lower quality on average. This will not get reflected in save % but will show up in the xGA vs GA gap.

So do we think Henderson is capable of doing what no other GK has in the history of the PL and put up similar numbers next season?

Id confidently say no.

 

[Based Adnan]

I agree with everything you say, but I dont think that mistskes come from a general decline in form. If it was him not getting to that spectacular shots he used to save I would agree, but we are talking about brain farts here.

Completely mistakes, and those dont have anything to do with the strenght or speed of a keeper declining, those are totally mental. Lack of concentration.

General decline in form results in a lack of confidence. It was never going to be a case of he only starts letting in the spectacular shots he would otherwise save and the rest of his game is fine.

 

[11101]

Deano is a puncher. His aerial ability is decent. Don't expect him to be super commanding and catch them confidently like VDS, he is actually similar to De Gea in many ways but is also very brave coming off his line, sometimes a bit too much and gets caught out. But thats what the loan is for.

I think we’ll agree to disagree I too have watched them all. He stays on his line more than more modern GKs but most of our shots conceded and goals aren’t from positions where rushing out would have been advantageous.

Or do you mean coming for crosses? I agree he’s been shocking at that this season.

He doesn't need to be rushing out for 1v1s, he's long ago shown he is just as good sitting on his line using his reactions.

His weakness in coming out for crosses is one of the two big issues. It's not just that he misses the occasional one, it's that attackers know they are free to attack the ball and he will never be there. Catch or punch, strikers knew it was risky to challenge for crosses when Schmeichel was nearby and often didn't bother.

The other one is how he relies on our defenders to drop right back to our own goalline to help him out on the ball. It would make a huge difference to have a keeper who would allow our defenders to push up the field more especially now we finally have defenders who can do it.

 

[Adnan]

Saying Henderson isn’t the only GK.

Also are you deliberately ignoring all the other points now?

They don’t tell you how he is doing it. Or what he is doing that De Gea isn’t. My point is we need to look at what Henderson is doing that means he’s better. The number proves he’s doing something better we need to then look at what that something is.

It’s also possible to build up 8+ from a culmination of lots of 0.3XGs etc.

So we need to establish is he making lots of slightly above average saves where the XG is positive but not high or is he pulling off the odd high XG save?


I agree it’s really good and really useful I’ve never claimed otherwise.

But a mistake leading to a goal is different to not saving an XG.

Saying Henderson isn't the only Goalkeeper we can bring in is a silly point..

I couldn't care about the rest of your points. I responded to another poster by writing 'this' in response to a post which I agreed with. Then you respond to me about Henderson not being better etc, when Henderson has feck all to do with what I and another poster were in agreement with.

 

[Idxomer]

Damn. This is hard to watch. Looks like I am watching someone else

I went and watched his 17/18 saves and holy shit the contrast in the level is astronomical.

How did he decline that much in less than a year?

 

[midnightmare]

So do we think Henderson is capable of doing what no other GK has in the history of the PL and put up similar numbers next season?

Id confidently say no.

What's your point? Seriously, please establish your contention first before being so condescending. Let me outline my positions and see how you react:

1. DdG is below required standards and has been for 2 years now; also, the regression is accelerating
Basis: Errors and performances. He's losing us points and routinely getting "done". Apart from the obvious blunders, the number of shots beating him at the near post tells a tale too. From an outstanding +15.5 out-performance in the league in 2017/18 (xGA vs GA), he's now at +1.1.

2. Henderson absolutely is better
Henderson has conceded 36 goals vs 35 for DdG as things stand.
He's made 96 saves vs 91 for DdG which would also imply that he's actually faced far better striker opportunities than DdG.
xGA for DdG stands at 36, whereas it stands at 50.4 for Henderson.
From a very similar number of shots therefore, Henderson has had to save better opportunities (higher xG), so yes, he's saving better than DdG

Your point of whether Henderson can put up similar numbers to DdG's 2017-18 numbers is absolutely irrelevant by the bye.
Can DdG match what van der Sar did? How is that even relevant? What's relevant is (in order) the following:

1. Is DdG good enough to be our starter next season? Nope. Poor for 2 years and probably causing loss of confidence in the defenders ahead of him. Can't be trusted.
2. Is Dean Henderson a better option? Yup. Absolutely is.
3. Is Dean good enough for what we aspire to be?

This third question is something for our coaches and manager to answer and if the answer to this is "No", it only means we need to get in a keeper that is good enough. It's not to go back to DdG.

 

[arthurka]

Before anyone bash him completely I just want to say a couple of thIngs.
He’s a club legend with over 400 games and 2 POTY awards and should be treated with respect. Regardless of salary.

13 clean sheets last 19 games.

Don’t get me wrong. He’s performances been shaky for some time now and maybe it’s time to move on. But at least treat him with some respect.

Well no.. A legend that has threatened to leave the club again and again and has never had a status of a serial winner since he came. He looked great in a piss poor team and we were getting hammered, I could give you a bunch of keepers who look good in these kind of teams but aren't good enough to play top flight. I've said this here for a while now he shouldn't be starting games for Utd anymore. He has way to many flaws as a keeper. He never relieves pressure, his passing game is ok at best and if you add him making mistakes every other game now that has to be the final straw. He cost us CL football last year and is doing his best now to keep that trend going. Give it to Romero till the end and let Henderson show his ability next season. DDG is finished as a top tier (if he ever was one, best shot stopper in the planet yes but not even close as a complete package) keeper and has been for a while now.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

He doesn't need to be rushing out for 1v1s, he's long ago shown he is just as good sitting on his line using his reactions.

His weakness in coming out for crosses is one of the two big issues. It's not just that he misses the occasional one, it's that attackers know they are free to attack the ball and he will never be there. Catch or punch, strikers knew it was risky to challenge for crosses when Schmeichel was nearby and often didn't bother.

The other one is how he relies on our defenders to drop right back to our own goalline to help him out on the ball. It would make a huge difference to have a keeper who would allow our defenders to push up the field more especially now we finally have defenders who can do it.

So who do you suggest?

Saying Henderson isn't the only Goalkeeper we can bring in is a silly point..

I couldn't care about the rest of your points. I responded to another poster by writing 'this' in response to a post which I agreed with. Then you respond to me about Henderson not being better etc, when Henderson has feck all to do with what I and another poster were in agreement with.

It’s like saying water is wet. Silly we all know.

I give up with you.

What's your point? Seriously, please establish your contention first before being so condescending. Let me outline my positions and see how you react:

1. DdG is below required standards and has been for 2 years now; also, the regression is accelerating
Basis: Errors and performances. He's losing us points and routinely getting "done". Apart from the obvious blunders, the number of shots beating him at the near post tells a tale too. From an outstanding +15.5 out-performance in the league in 2017/18 (xGA vs GA), he's now at +1.1.

2. Henderson absolutely is better
Henderson has conceded 36 goals vs 35 for DdG as things stand.
He's made 96 saves vs 91 for DdG which would also imply that he's actually faced far better striker opportunities than DdG.
xGA for DdG stands at 36, whereas it stands at 50.4 for Henderson.
From a very similar number of shots therefore, Henderson has had to save better opportunities (higher xG), so yes, he's saving better than DdG

Your point of whether Henderson can put up similar numbers to DdG's 2017-18 numbers is absolutely irrelevant by the bye.
Can DdG match what van der Sar did? How is that even relevant? What's relevant is (in order) the following:

1. Is DdG good enough to be our starter next season? Nope. Poor for 2 years and probably causing loss of confidence in the defenders ahead of him. Can't be trusted.
2. Is Dean Henderson a better option? Yup. Absolutely is.
3. Is Dean good enough for what we aspire to be?

This third question is something for our coaches and manager to answer and if the answer to this is "No", it only means we need to get in a keeper that is good enough. It's not to go back to DdG.

1. No GK in world football has ever come close to repeating that kind of season it is impossible and unfair to use that as a barometer of decline. He’s cost us 6 points this season which is comparable to other GKs and his stats are better this season then last.
2. I agree Henderson has been better but he’s still made the same errors that you would slate De Gea for. It’s not irrelevant De Gea at his best was better stats wise than any GK in PL history for XGA. Unless you believe one outstanding year isn’t indicative of actual ability in which case how is Henderson definitely better?
3. De Gea had better stats than VDS
4. De Gea is good enough to start next season if he wasn’t we would not have the 2nd best goals against in the league and have gone unbeaten for 19 games with 13 clean sheets.
5. You have no basis for saying confidently Henderson is a better De Gea has more experience, has shown a higher ability and has done so under intense pressure and scrutiny. Henderson has had one good PL season.
6. Henderson isn’t what a lot of people want in a GK but he’s got a lot of promise. The fact is he needs to do a lot more to displace on of the PL’s greatest ever GKs.
7. Who would you suggest we have instead?

 

[midnightmare]

Well no.. A legend that has threatened to leave the club again and again and has never had a status of a serial winner since he came. He looked great in a piss poor team and we were getting hammered, I could give you a bunch of keepers who look good in these kind of teams but aren't good enough to play top flight. I've said this here for a while now he shouldn't be starting games for Utd anymore. He has way to many flaws as a keeper. He never relieves pressure, his passing game is ok at best and if you add him making mistakes every other game now that has to be the final straw. He cost us CL football last year and is doing his best now to keep that trend going. Give it to Romero till the end and let Henderson show his ability next season. DDG is finished as a top tier (if he ever was one, best shot stopper in the planet yes but not even close as a complete package) keeper and has been for a while now.

Very interesting point. DdG has been absolutely outstanding when playing behind weak defences. But behind better defences (when he first arrived and then again this season) for the club and for Spain (Ramos-Pique is strong!), he looks poor way too often. My own hypothesis is because better defenders would want a keeper that can command the area, be organized and most importantly, be predictable and positionally secure whereas DdG is the type to stay on the line, leave the defence to "do their stuff" and react on instinct, reflexes and agility. The Casillas comparison again springs to mind.

 

[midnightmare]

So who do you suggest?

It’s like saying water is wet. Silly we all know.

I give up with you.

1. No GK in world football has ever come close to repeating that kind of season it is impossible and unfair to use that as a barometer of decline. He’s cost us 6 points this season which is comparable to other GKs and his stats are better this season then last.
2. I agree Henderson has been better but he’s still made the same errors that you would slate De Gea for. It’s not irrelevant De Gea at his best was better stats wise than any GK in PL history for XGA. Unless you believe one outstanding year isn’t indicative of actual ability in which case how is Henderson definitely better?
3. De Gea had better stats than VDS
4. De Gea is good enough to start next season if he wasn’t we would not have the 2nd best goals against in the league and have gone unbeaten for 19 games with 13 clean sheets.
5. You have no basis for saying confidently Henderson is a better De Gea has more experience, has shown a higher ability and has done so under intense pressure and scrutiny. Henderson has had one good PL season.
6. Henderson isn’t what a lot of people want in a GK but he’s got a lot of promise. The fact is he needs to do a lot more to displace on of the PL’s greatest ever GKs.
7. Who would you suggest we have instead?

So effectively, you have consigned all data to the dustbin just to stoutly and resolutely stick to a point? Ridiculous.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

So effectively, you have consigned all data to the dustbin just to stoutly and resolutely stick to a point? Ridiculous.

How the you reached that conclusion?

I agree Henderson has had a better season this season compared to De Gea I’ve even argued in favour of XGA being a good barometer of points saved.

You’re just being lazy in not responding to my points now which is ridiculous.

 

[arthurka]

Very interesting point. DdG has been absolutely outstanding when playing behind weak defences. But behind better defences (when he first arrived and then again this season) for the club and for Spain (Ramos-Pique is strong!), he looks poor way too often. My own hypothesis is because better defenders would want a keeper that can command the area, be organized and most importantly, be predictable and positionally secure whereas DdG is the type to stay on the line, leave the defence to "do their stuff" and react on instinct, reflexes and agility. The Casillas comparison again springs to mind.

It's also a concentration issue, having better defence means you are less involved and you won't be shot into a hot streak and full concentration. This has been my feeling with DDG that he is a bit of a hot streak keeper who loves being stretched right left and center for the cameras. I know it's DDG open season now but the writing has been in the wall for a while now and without the shot stopping ability he is nothing more than a ordinary nothing special keeper. Schmeichel made errors and so did VdS but they had something more to give then just shot stopping. Both had great passing games, commanding and could organise a defense and keep them on their toes. Both knew not to overstay their welcome when the top form wasn't there anymore. He should have been dropped after last season but Ole chose to stick with him, he can't make the same mistake again.

 

[11101]

So who do you suggest?

I'm not suggesting anybody. Just stating that De Gea has been out of form for a while now, to the point where you start to wonder if it is just form or something more permanent. Henderson is one option and if we are honest is the one the club should be looking at as an eventual replacement, just maybe not right now.

 

[midnightmare]

How the you reached that conclusion?

I agree Henderson has had a better season this season compared to De Gea I’ve even argued in favour of XGA being a good barometer of points saved.

You’re just being lazy in not responding to my points now which is ridiculous.

Quite simply you said "nobody will match the levels shown by DdG" and I just highlighted that Henderson this season is already very close to that level; and this is without considering that he's faced better shot quality than DdG has done (on average) this season and even in 2017/18.

It's bizarre to contend that we should persist with a keeper who has ensured the following:
1. Missing out on CL last season (big contributor)
2. Being in 5th as opposed to 2nd (max 3rd)
3. Being out of CL in 2017/18 (his error led to the Sevilla goal; we overlook it because of Mou's rant and the attacking deficiencies)
4. Being out of CL last season (look at that opener)
5. Being out of FAC this season

Now, which goalkeeper for any top club "boasts" of such achievements? And which of them has been given this many lives? DdG has been living on the fumes of 2017/18 for ages now. Henderson would need to have an absolute stinker to be worse.

All this is data-driven - so if you say you disagree, either you disagree with the data or have formed an opinion that you will stick to regardless of all data. Ergo, my point that you are just simply ignoring all data.

PS:
Yes, Henderson has made errors. Every keeper makes the odd error. The issue is, DdG is making too many and also, DdG offers virtually nothing apart from shot-stopping. Henderson isn't the best at claiming crosses, but is leagues ahead on this count. He's also statistically ahead on 1v1 situations. DdG without infallible shot-stopping is a below-average keeper as he scores well below any other peer on every other metric - marshaling the defence, commanding the area, claiming crosses, sweeping and distribution.

 

[midnightmare]

It's also a concentration issue, having better defence means you are less involved and you won't be shot into a hot streak and full concentration. This has been my feeling with DDG that he is a bit of a hot streak keeper who loves being stretched right left and center for the cameras. I know it's DDG open season now but the writing has been in the wall for a while now and without the shot stopping ability he is nothing more than a ordinary nothing special keeper. Schmeichel made errors and so did VdS but they had something more to give then just shot stopping. Both had great passing games, commanding and could organise a defense and keep them on their toes. Both knew not to overstay their welcome when the top form wasn't there anymore. He should have been dropped after last season but Ole chose to stick with him, he can't make the same mistake again.

Finally someone saying what I've been saying for years on these points.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

I'm not suggesting anybody. Just stating that De Gea has been out of form for a while now, to the point where you start to wonder if it is just form or something more permanent. Henderson is one option and if we are honest is the one the club should be looking at as an eventual replacement, just maybe not right now.

So then logically we stick with De Gea until we have a clearly superior replacement in mind.

Quite simply you said "nobody will match the levels shown by DdG" and I just highlighted that Henderson this season is already very close to that level; and this is without considering that he's faced better shot quality than DdG has done (on average) this season and even in 2017/18.

To contend that a keeper who has ensured the following:
1. Missing out on CL last season (big contributor)
2. Being in 5th as opposed to 2nd (max 3rd)
3. Being out of CL in 2017/18 (his error led to the Sevilla goal; we overlook it because of Mou's rant and the attacking deficiencies)
4. Being out of CL last season (look at that opener)
5. Being out of FAC this season

Now, which goalkeeper for any top club "boasts" of such achievements? And which of them has been given this many lives? DdG has been living on the fumes of 2017/18 for ages now. Henderson would need to have an absolute stinker to be worse.

All this is data-driven - so if you say you disagree, either you disagree with the data or have formed an opinion that you will stick to regardless of all data. Ergo, my point that you are just simply ignoring all data.

Where is the data to suggest he’s faced better shot quality to 2017/18 De Gea? I’d appreciate a link.

How is De Gea responsible for Missing out on CL? What data is this based on?

What data suggests De Gea has cost us 2nd by my count even without his mistakes that cost points we’d be on 68 points still 10 shy of City. We have the same goals conceded as them too so actually it seems attack has been the bigger issue.

So he was part of a wider issue? That’s not data btw that’s your opinion.

So De Gea is responsible for CL too?

I agree his mistakes knocked us out of the FA Cup this season.

I would like to see your evidence for the rest please.

Henderson would just need to have an ok season to be worse. Statistically De Gea has been average in some aspects and above average in others.

If you evidence your points now with correct and relevant data to support those points then you can make that claim and I’ll consider my position. However if you cannot or do not provide that data then you are a pot calling the kettle black. I’ve evidenced my points (my only one really being De Gea isn’t making costly mistakes compared to Henderson)

 

[midnightmare]

So then logically we stick with De Gea until we have a clearly superior replacement in mind.

Where is the data to suggest he’s faced better shot quality to 2017/18 De Gea? I’d appreciate a link.

How is De Gea responsible for Missing out on CL? What data is this based on?

What data suggests De Gea has cost us 2nd by my count even without his mistakes that cost points we’d be on 68 points still 10 shy of City. We have the same goals conceded as them too so actually it seems attack has been the bigger issue.

So he was part of a wider issue? That’s not data btw that’s your opinion.

So De Gea is responsible for CL too?

I agree his mistakes knocked us out of the FA Cup this season.

I would like to see your evidence for the rest please.

Henderson would just need to have an ok season to be worse. Statistically De Gea has been average in some aspects and above average in others.

If you evidence your points now with correct and relevant data to support those points then you can make that claim and I’ll consider my position. However if you cannot or do not provide that data then you are a pot calling the kettle black. I’ve evidenced my points (my only one really being De Gea isn’t making costly mistakes compared to Henderson)

Do you watch anything at all?
1. DdG in 2017/18 made 115 saves (PL) and had an xGA - GA of +15.4
Henderson this season has made 96 saves and has an xGA - GA of +14.4
Do the math for yourself now

2. Your "assessment" clearly is off. DdG has cost us heavily in loads of games. Watford, Everton (H&A), SHU away, Palace (H), Soton (H) are just a few that spring to mind. When a keeper concedes the opener with a gaffe like against Watford, scratching it off "because we lost 2-0" is to ignore the impact that the opener had on the game. We'd be a very comfortable third at the very least without his errors.

3. CL - you must be kidding me if you want me to justify the CL exits:
- Sevilla: Just look at DdG letting the damn ball through his hands. That goal cost us. Badly. Blame the attack, but that was an absolute blunder and it cost us the tie
- Barca: Sure, maybe they'd have rolled us over anyway, but look at the opener (again, the opener) trickling under him. A shot that even schoolboys would save without breaking sweat. Again, it's the opener.
- FAC: Doesn't need justification

So yeah, DdG has cost us very heavily. For ages, this stuff has been ignored. Circumstances, agendas against Pogba, Jose, Martial, Rashford, Smalling, Maguire etc. and our own bizarre "reacher complex" with DdG have seen him escape censure for a load of errors. But objectively, he's been dropping the ball for ages and let's be clear. Under Fergie, he'd have been long gone.

PS:
Which aspect has DdG been above-average in apart from shot-stopping since the time he entered the club? He's ONLY a shot-stopper par excellence and deeply average at best in every other aspect - and below average in several.

 

[mancan92]

Right time to put an end to so much bull that has been spouted in this thread. David De Gea this season:

1. De Gea has faced 120 shots this season on target
2. He’s saved 87
3. 72.5% success rate (6th best)
4. He has cost us 6 points from 7 mistakes this season (Cost points only if the mistake resulted in win->draw or draw->loss)
5. He also cost us FA Cup progression

For context Dean “The Second Coming of Christ” Henderson this season:

1. Face 126 shots on target
2. Saved 96
3. 76.2% success rate (for context if De Gea saves 4 more he’d have an equal rate)
4. He has cost Sheffield United 5 points
5. He also cost them FA Cup progression

https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats

And if you want to do you own analysis of mistakes

Good effort but you forgot one major thing. Henderson actually does the other aspects of keeping pretty well whereas de gea is horrible at them. If Henderson is performing better than de gea at the one thing de gea is supposed to be top class in then its curtains for him.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Do you watch anything at all?
1. DdG in 2017/18 made 115 saves (PL) and had an xGA - GA of +15.4
Henderson this season has made 96 saves and has an xGA - GA of +14.4
Do the math for yourself now

2. Your "assessment" clearly is off. DdG has cost us heavily in loads of games. Watford, Everton (H&A), SHU away, Palace (H), Soton (H) are just a few that spring to mind. When a keeper concedes the opener with a gaffe like against Watford, scratching it off "because we lost 2-0" is to ignore the impact that the opener had on the game. We'd be a very comfortable third at the very least without his errors.

3. CL - you must be kidding me if you want me to justify the CL exits:
- Sevilla: Just look at DdG letting the damn ball through his hands. That goal cost us. Badly. Blame the attack, but that was an absolute blunder and it cost us the tie
- Barca: Sure, maybe they'd have rolled us over anyway, but look at the opener (again, the opener) trickling under him. A shot that even schoolboys would save without breaking sweat. Again, it's the opener.
- FAC: Doesn't need justification

So yeah, DdG has cost us very heavily. For ages, this stuff has been ignored. Circumstances, agendas against Pogba, Jose, Martial, Rashford, Smalling, Maguire etc. and our own bizarre "reacher complex" with DdG have seen him escape censure for a load of errors. But objectively, he's been dropping the ball for ages and let's be clear. Under Fergie, he'd have been long gone.

PS:
Which aspect has DdG been above-average in apart from shot-stopping since the time he entered the club? He's ONLY a shot-stopper par excellence and deeply average at best in every other aspect - and below average in several.

1. Where does this prove Henderson faced better shot quality than 2017/18 De Gea?
2. How much has it actually cost us. Tell me how many points you feel he is solely responsible for us losing. I believe it’s 6. Can you be specific and give me a figure. I agree we would be comfortably third if De Gea made no mistakes. Has any GK in the PL not made any point costing mistakes to make it w worthy criticism?
3. It’s a factor but not the ultimate reason. The attack was the bigger issue. However I take your point of it having impacts on the matches
4. I agree FA Cup does not need justifying he is responsible

I agree he has cost us but in order to say heavily you need to decide on what you’d expect a GK to give away points wise. Henderson has given away 5 for example is that a heavy cost?

I agree his only stand out quality is shot stopping I also believe we need to be making steps to plan for his successor.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Good effort but you forgot one major thing. Henderson actually does the other aspects of keeping pretty well whereas de gea is horrible at them. If Henderson is performing better than de gea at the one thing de gea is supposed to be top class in then its curtains for him.

Please note I’m not trying to prove anything other than De Gea alone hasn’t cost us more than 6 points and Henderson 5.

Henderson has been the better keeper this season except in distribution which has been poor.

 

[midnightmare]

@BenitoSTARR - here you go with some comparisons across Europe as of the end of Feb (not too long ago, and actually ignores DdG's worst spell of the season).
https://www.marca.com/en/football/international-football/2020/02/25/5e5506ef22601d02078b4568.html

This considers post-shot xGA, which actually therefore considers the xGA based on the quality of the shot (thereby addressing the issue of "he faced easier shots").
If you still contend that Dean Henderson would be worse despite:
1. Being well ahead on xGA - GA
2. Being well ahead on PSxGA - GA
3. This being across a very similar number of shots
4. Having this with a nearly identical number of GA
5. Playing in an inferior team

Well, if you still think that, then I really have nothing to say because then you are choosing to ignore literally every relevant stat just because you are wedded to your viewpoint.

PS: https://www.footballcritic.com/feat...c-manchester-unitedcs-goalkeeping-dilemma/965
This page shows the quality of shot faced by DdG was actually marginally lower in 2017/18 than this season. As such, it is but obvious that if DdG has faced poorer quality shots this season than Henderson, the same holds for 2017/18.
Again, either prove your points statistically, OR accept you are just not bothered about the data.
Right now, I am the only one talking with numbers.

 

[ottosec]

I still have faith that he will be back to his best, but if it's true and he's doing badly in training too, we should start Romero instead.

I've been reading an interesting interview a few days ago with our previous GK coach Emilio Alvarez, who happened to be one of DDG's best friends too when he was here. He claimed they had a big fallout over DDG's new contract. Seems to fit the timeline of DDG becoming unreliable, but who knows.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

@BenitoSTARR - here you go with some comparisons across Europe as of the end of Feb (not too long ago, and actually ignores DdG's worst spell of the season).
https://www.marca.com/en/football/international-football/2020/02/25/5e5506ef22601d02078b4568.html

This considers post-shot xGA, which actually therefore considers the xGA based on the quality of the shot (thereby addressing the issue of "he faced easier shots").
If you still contend that Dean Henderson would be worse despite:
1. Being well ahead on xGA - GA
2. Being well ahead on PSxGA - GA
3. This being across a very similar number of shots
4. Having this with a nearly identical number of GA
5. Playing in an inferior team

Well, if you still think that, then I really have nothing to say because then you are choosing to ignore literally every relevant stat just because you are wedded to your viewpoint.

PS: https://www.footballcritic.com/feat...c-manchester-unitedcs-goalkeeping-dilemma/965
This page shows the quality of shot faced by DdG was actually marginally lower in 2017/18 than this season. As such, it is but obvious that if DdG has faced poorer quality shots this season than Henderson, the same holds for 2017/18.
Again, either prove your points statistically, OR accept you are just not bothered about the data.
Right now, I am the only one talking with numbers.

Thank you really great post and mostly well supported. I appreciate it’s hard to find up to date stats so despite De Geas upturn since Feb Ill accept the Marca poi

I mean this with the highest respect and praise that I can you are the first poster who has backed up the crux of their argument clearly so you have my respect for this too.

You haven’t yet evidenced point 2 and 3 the cost of De Geas mistakes compared to others costs and also you’re being subjective in your CL assessment as the losses are not his sole responsibility.

Ive never said Henderson has been worse than De Gea this season my point is that it would not be reasonable to say his performance would be easily transferred to United as no GK in PL history has managed this.

I’m not wedded to my viewpoint. I’m intrigued what do you actually think my viewpoint is?

 

[mancan92]

Thank you really great post and mostly well supported. I appreciate it’s hard to find up to date stats so despite De Geas upturn since Feb Ill accept the Marca poi

I mean this with the highest respect and praise that I can you are the first poster who has backed up the crux of their argument clearly so you have my respect for this too.

You haven’t yet evidenced point 2 and 3 the cost of De Geas mistakes compared to others costs and also you’re being subjective in your CL assessment as the losses are not his sole responsibility.

Ive never said Henderson has been worse than De Gea this season my point is that it would not be reasonable to say his performance would be easily transferred to United as no GK in PL history has managed this.

I’m not wedded to my viewpoint. I’m intrigued what do you actually think my viewpoint is?

Because people have given you fact after fact after fact and you come back with completely padantic points.

 

[Turnip]

Dave has been pretty much my favourite thing about United for some years now, but he's got to be dropped. Whatever his problem is, playing through it clearly isn't helping, so whether its for his good or the team's good its time for Romero to get his well earned chance.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Because people have given you fact after fact after fact and you come back with completely padantic points.

It’s not pedantic to want justification for opinions.

Equally many of the facts presented do not counter the only argument I’ve made which is De Gea isn’t costing any more point s compared to others.

Everyone on here expects me to justify so I expect the same back. If you can’t justify it you need to either find the evidence or accept you maybe just have an opinion that isn’t evidence based.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

Really hope we go with Romero tonight.

We've given De Gea enough chances to turn things around and he's still making horrendous and stupid mistakes.

I think he's in terminal decline but maybe being dropped will be the final wake up call he needs?

 

[midnightmare]

You haven’t yet evidenced point 2 and 3 the cost of De Geas mistakes compared to others costs and also you’re being subjective in your CL assessment as the losses are not his sole responsibility.

Let's put it this way. Fergie famously said (and wrote) that for him, his keepers had to be infallible. They also needed to have the air of infallibility. Take our famous win against Barca in the CL. Would we have that win if Edwin wasn't absolutely perfect? We parked the bus in a way Jose never could against that Barca side and kept out the "best side in the world" for 180 minutes. Yes, our attack against Sevilla and Barca could have done more. At the same time, if DdG had just made that most routine of saves, we'd go past Sevilla and we'd have been level with Barca at a time when we were riding on that "Given Paris, we can expect miracles" mindset. Instead, we were a goal down to a Barca side and then there was only one way we were headed as we could no longer sit deep and hope to keep it tight while hitting them on the break.

Is it his sole responsibility? Of course not! But, and this is the crux, the concessions weren't to great goals. They were because of crap keeping. And that is not good enough irrespective of all else. Should we have retained Alexis, Lingard and the likes as starters just because "our goals conceded were to keeping errors. Keep them out and we'd actually do better"? Nope. The attackers were patently not good enough. We must assess players for each position on their own performances irrespective of performances in other areas. Can't go the way of saying, "Yeah, he's not good enough, but he's not as bad as ..."

Ive never said Henderson has been worse than De Gea this season my point is that it would not be reasonable to say his performance would be easily transferred to United as no GK in PL history has managed this.

Firstly, that's untrue. vdS immediately came in and was great. No random faffing around. He was also our only intra-PL keeper transfer. So, bringing in Dean would make Dean the second and going by your logic of precedent, he should be doing great. (Edwin came from Fulham so again, low-profile club).
Secondly, Dean comes across as extremely confident, knows all that United is about given he's from the Academy and would have to endure an almighty dip to be worse than de Gea has been this season.
I therefore disagree that it would be a great risk.
Thirdly, who then would one get in? Nobody ever? At some stage, one has to say, "This keeper is not cutting it; we need to get in a replacement".

I’m not wedded to my viewpoint. I’m intrigued what do you actually think my viewpoint is?

Quite simply, I think you have - like a lot of our fans - forgotten what we were like. Brutal and ruthless with failure. Aiming for the best and grateful but not beholden to players for their past contributions. We aren't like the obese loser dating a supermodel who will put up with just about anything as long she condescends to date. We're not the reachers in our relationship with de Gea. And replacing him does not mean we do not respect and thank him for his contributions. It's just that as the club moves forward, either players contribute to that process or they get left behind.

Too often, there is the temptation to "stick to the known devil" and also, with de Gea, I presume you're guilty of thinking "he's got his prime years ahead of him". This ignores:
1. Hard data showing a slide
2. The fact that de Gea is more like Rooney - rose early and will fade early given his reliance on specific physical attributes

In summary, I believe you think:
1. De Gea will recover - somehow
2. We should be grateful to him and show it by standing by him
3. Dean Henderson may fail - so why risk it?

Neither of those aligns with how Fergie saw things. And when that's the case, you should know that you're in the wrong.

 

[luke511]

Is it me or has he stopped using his legs to save? I don't recall anywhere near as many leg saves as he used to do.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Let's put it this way. Fergie famously said (and wrote) that for him, his keepers had to be infallible. They also needed to have the air of infallibility. Take our famous win against Barca in the CL. Would we have that win if Edwin wasn't absolutely perfect? We parked the bus in a way Jose never could against that Barca side and kept out the "best side in the world" for 180 minutes. Yes, our attack against Sevilla and Barca could have done more. At the same time, if DdG had just made that most routine of saves, we'd go past Sevilla and we'd have been level with Barca at a time when we were riding on that "Given Paris, we can expect miracles" mindset. Instead, we were a goal down to a Barca side and then there was only one way we were headed as we could no longer sit deep and hope to keep it tight while hitting them on the break.

Is it his sole responsibility? Of course not! But, and this is the crux, the concessions weren't to great goals. They were because of crap keeping. And that is not good enough irrespective of all else. Should we have retained Alexis, Lingard and the likes as starters just because "our goals conceded were to keeping errors. Keep them out and we'd actually do better"? Nope. The attackers were patently not good enough. We must assess players for each position on their own performances irrespective of performances in other areas. Can't go the way of saying, "Yeah, he's not good enough, but he's not as bad as ..."


Firstly, that's untrue. vdS immediately came in and was great. No random faffing around. He was also our only intra-PL keeper transfer. So, bringing in Dean would make Dean the second and going by your logic of precedent, he should be doing great. (Edwin came from Fulham so again, low-profile club).
Secondly, Dean comes across as extremely confident, knows all that United is about given he's from the Academy and would have to endure an almighty dip to be worse than de Gea has been this season.
I therefore disagree that it would be a great risk.
Thirdly, who then would one get in? Nobody ever? At some stage, one has to say, "This keeper is not cutting it; we need to get in a replacement".



Quite simply, I think you have - like a lot of our fans - forgotten what we were like. Brutal and ruthless with failure. Aiming for the best and grateful but not beholden to players for their past contributions. We aren't like the obese loser dating a supermodel who will put up with just about anything as long she condescends to date. We're not the reachers in our relationship with de Gea. And replacing him does not mean we do not respect and thank him for his contributions. It's just that as the club moves forward, either players contribute to that process or they get left behind.

Too often, there is the temptation to "stick to the known devil" and also, with de Gea, I presume you're guilty of thinking "he's got his prime years ahead of him". This ignores:
1. Hard data showing a slide
2. The fact that de Gea is more like Rooney - rose early and will fade early given his reliance on specific physical attributes

In summary, I believe you think:
1. De Gea will recover - somehow
2. We should be grateful to him and show it by standing by him
3. Dean Henderson may fail - so why risk it?

Neither of those aligns with how Fergie saw things. And when that's the case, you should know that you're in the wrong.

I think you’re being subjective and incredibly harsh picking him out for performances where he didn’t cost us the game. He was far from the problem on those nights and most people on the night of it happening wouldn’t have picked De Gea at fault. In fact if you take a look back to the match thread at the time I’m sure you’d see my point. The team cost us not De Gea and I believe you are rewriting the narrative of those games to suit this agenda.

What I mean is that I do not see Henderson or any other PL GK repeating two seasons at that far end of outperforming average metrics. Not that a keeper can’t come in and do well. But there is zero chance Henderson walks in and does as good a job this season.

You can disagree but the same mistakes we fear in De Gea are present in Dean. He might appear confident but he’s not infallible and nowhere near Van Der Sarr’s level who was an incredibly experienced GK at the time not someone in their first season in a major league he had already won the Champions League and won an award for being the best GK in Europe before joining United. It’s a complete joke to compare him to Henderson coming to United Id expect better of you.

Dean Henderson has never had to deal with the negative media spotlight. Look at Pickford for England for example. Great season some great performances and all of a sudden the spotlight is on and he crumbled he’s a confident lad and even he struggled. It’s not as clear cut as you’d like to make out.

If you read my actual views you’d note I’m very happy to replace De Gea. I’ve said several times he’s been ok this season but below expectation but again rather than acknowledge my actual views it’s easier to try to paint me as a De Gea lover or someone who has forgotten Ferguson which is also a complete joke.

We weren’t so brutal as to remove a player without a plan to replace them. That’s just stupid and currently Henderson hasn’t proven he’s ready to replace De Gea. He is getting there but not quite.

De Gea hasnt contributed nothing this season or we would not have the second best defence in the league with an impressive recent form of 19 games unbeaten with many a clean sheet.

It’s not a case of stick with the devil you know but a case of you need a WC Gk. Henderson isn’t that. If you suggested Oblak it would be no contest and I’d pay for De Gea’s flights. Players have bad seasons and sometimes a bit of faith is better than casting everyone aside for the next and shinier toy.

Now for what I actually believe:

1. De Gea is performing ok he’s not outstanding and this would concern me if we were losing lots of points because of him or if our defensive record was poor. As it’s not I don’t see a huge issue giving him one more season while Henderson develops.

2. I think a lot of wishful thinking about Henderson has been going on in here and nobody has sought to criticise any of his mistakes yet people are actively pursuing De Gea for things that happened two years ago. I don’t think this is a fair narrative to pursue even if I don’t think De Gea has been good enough compared to his best.

3. Dean Henderson has had one season of top flight football. This does not fill me with confidence that he has the experience to lead and deal with the pressure, scrutiny and craziness of being our GK. Another season like this or a solid performance as our No2 next season and he’d be in a much better position to stake a solid claim.

4. Of course I’m grateful to De Gea for previous seasons aren’t you? But that doesn’t mean I’ll blindly support him if there is a serious issue. I don’t believe the issue is pressing enough to focus on when we need a RW and CB far more than we need to worry about a GK.

Dont talk as if you know the mind of Sir Alex he we the one who signed De Gea and kept faith in him whilst he made mistakes.