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2019-20 Performances


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5.8 Season Average Rating
Appearances
43
Clean sheets
15
Goals
0
Assists
0
Yellow cards
2
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midnightmare

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You don’t get averages, huh?
He's right, though, isn't he? Not sure why you'd say he doesn't get average. "Averages" would require you to consider the probability of penalties being scored - which is high. I think a penalty has an xG of .76 or something. As such, on average, 76% of penalties are scored. This would include some where the striker misses the target. So, on average 2.4 of 10 penalties really should be saved. Now, you could consider that this xG may include (I don't know if it does) stats from shootouts and from poorer quality leagues. As such, you could reasonably assume that the xG should be higher for league games where you only face guys that are designated takers and therefore more likely to score. If so, you're down to what he's said - 1 or 2 per 10.

Note: A penalty not being a random event / game of chance does not have a 50% probability of being scored (the simplistic view of "given that there are only 2 possible outcomes, each has a 50% probability"). The nature of the event is such that one outcome is far likelier than the other. As such, the average here will be weighted towards the outcome that is more likely. Hence, the average is not 50%, but very skewed.
 

Buchan

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This xG noncery as a metric for judging players simply has to stop. No two shots are ever the same when considering the players involved, the conditions and the context. Yet people are using the ‘data’ to completely write off or overrate players.

It’s absolutely mental.
 

BenitoSTARR

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This xG noncery as a metric for judging players simply has to stop. No two shots are ever the same when considering the players involved, the conditions and the context. Yet people are using the ‘data’ to completely write off or overrate players.

It’s absolutely mental.
No Alisson must be sold! And replaced with Henderson. And we should buy Lloris.
 

Classical Mechanic

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https://www.skysports.com/football/...nce-is-a-massive-problem-says-jamie-carragher

This is the most up to date data too!

Alisson out! Liverpool won’t win anything with such a poor GK based on XGA!
Thanks for the link. It is surprising but Liverpool have been weak at the back recently. If you're judging Allison and De Gea though you're looking at one complete goalkeeper in terms of attributes and one extremely limited keeper. That DDG has become such an average shot stopper is the take away from those stats because it means that we now have a poor goalkeeper.
 

midnightmare

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https://www.skysports.com/football/...nce-is-a-massive-problem-says-jamie-carragher

This is the most up to date data too!

Alisson out! Liverpool won’t win anything with such a poor GK based on XGA!
A number of points:
1. Not able to see the data on Understat, but even if assuming this is true, you have to consider nuances. Liverpool and Allison have been very poor after sealing the title. As such, it would be unsurprising. DdG however, has been poor with the pressure on
2. Allison offers a heck of a lot more than DdG does. DdG only stops shots. His distribution is poor and he can't sweep or collect crosses much (witness the numerous posts expressing surprise at his claiming the simplest of crosses last night)

Finally, another note. Caballero is better than Kepa. Should Chelsea keep him? It's mental to not see the context and make comparisons that are irrelevant. We're not here to compare individual metrics, but to discuss DdG's performances for Man United - with the question here simply being "Is he good enough to retain as #1 for next season?"
As many (including me) have highlighted, DdG only offers shot-stopping as his value-add. In such a case, you can't dismiss issues in this parameter since a dip here makes him a liability.

Again though, if you have made up your mind, then all data and discussion is pointless.
 

BenitoSTARR

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Assuming it’s true haha :lol: :lol: :lol:

Agendas out in force today.

Alisson has had a worse season than De Gea based on this metric which we are using to criticise De Gea yet no one criticises Alisson for letting in easy goals and still Liverpool won the league?

Almost like it doesn’t matter as much as others make out.

I agree if you’ve made up your mind all data and discussion is pointless because any data and discussion I provide is dismissed while anyone moaning about De Gea’s XG is fine.

Double standard and revisionism is at play at the moment from the lot of you.

Admit you’re butt hurt at his mistakes and saw the BBC game and made up your mind.
 

midnightmare

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Assuming it’s true haha :lol: :lol: :lol:

Agendas out in force today.

Alisson has had a worse season than De Gea based on this metric which we are using to criticise De Gea yet no one criticises Alisson for letting in easy goals and still Liverpool won the league?

Almost like it doesn’t matter as much as others make out.

I agree if you’ve made up your mind all data and discussion is pointless because any data and discussion I provide is dismissed while anyone moaning about De Gea’s XG is fine.

Double standard and revisionism is at play at the moment from the lot of you.

Admit you’re butt hurt at his mistakes and saw the BBC game and made up your mind.
Where's the agenda barring the one you are beating the drum for?
Seriously - you're grasping at straws here.

1. Firstly, as I mentioned, Allison's errors have come late. Allison is -1.14 from July 1 onwards. He's -1.5 from July 15 onwards. Know what's changed? Oh yeah, no pressure! Title done.
2. The comparison is incomplete - because for Allison, distribution is a key strength alongside shot-stopping and also sweeping. DdG scores very poorly in 2 of those 3 areas. Care to compare those? Those defending DdG would be wise to avoid those areas altogether

The only double standard here is the one where you're studiously avoiding addressing the clear and simple fact that DdG has endured a sustained dip over his admittedly exceptional peak in the one and only area where he excels. The comparisons to Henderson are because Henderson is an obvious alternative. Henderson also is more amenable to comparison on the same metric as he and DdG have the same strengths (and weaknesses).

If you can't comprehend how to segment and compare, the discussion is moot.
 

BenitoSTARR

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Where's the agenda barring the one you are beating the drum for?
Seriously - you're grasping at straws here.

1. Firstly, as I mentioned, Allison's errors have come late. Allison is -1.14 from July 1 onwards. He's -1.5 from July 15 onwards. Know what's changed? Oh yeah, no pressure! Title done.
2. The comparison is incomplete - because for Allison, distribution is a key strength alongside shot-stopping and also sweeping. DdG scores very poorly in 2 of those 3 areas. Care to compare those? Those defending DdG would be wise to avoid those areas altogether

The only double standard here is the one where you're studiously avoiding addressing the clear and simple fact that DdG has endured a sustained dip over his admittedly exceptional peak in the one and only area where he excels. The comparisons to Henderson are because Henderson is an obvious alternative. Henderson also is more amenable to comparison on the same metric as he and DdG have the same strengths (and weaknesses).

If you can't comprehend how to segment and compare, the discussion is moot.
So what you’re saying is Alisson is unprofessional?

I’m not ignoring it I’ve said many times he’s not been as good recently you just can’t cope with a nuanced view that doesn’t condemn him to the scrap heap.

#DonthateDeGeaHateDaGame
 

passing-wind

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I don't think Alison traditionally is a world class goalkeeper but in terms of the modernization of the position he suits Liverpool tactically which allows them to dictate the play and organises the area of the box excellently. It's no different to a defender they need to excel at being competent on the ball and being able to put in a tackle. The two traits now need to contrast one another.

If Smalling was playing in the 90's he would receive a far much greater reputation for his defensive contribution but when you consider how compressed a game of football has become he's nullified as being poor because he's awful in possession. No different to De Gea he was a world class shot stopper (emphasis on was) but he has no command of his area, he's weak to attack the ball on crosses, his distribution is worse compared to his time at A Madrid. De Gea is regressing as a professional with no immediate circumstances as to why, we need to get rid of him.
 

midnightmare

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Liverpool is expected to concede 39.23 and they actually concede 32; we are expected to concede 37.30 and we actually concede 36.
https://understat.com/league/EPL
Allison missed games. Understat has team stats not Allison’s.



So what you’re saying is Alisson is unprofessional?

I’m not ignoring it I’ve said many times he’s not been as good recently you just can’t cope with a nuanced view that doesn’t condemn him to the scrap heap.

#DonthateDeGeaHateDaGame
What part of pressure do you not get? He’s not unprofessional. He’s just made errors in a period where the pressure has eased after an incessant and relentless intensity. And this too after, as has been repeatedly stressed, it’s not the core skill he brings to his team.

Nobody hates DdG. Also, your comparing his numbers to Allison is like a strawman argument. It’s not answering the point or addressing the criticism.

The facts remain simple:
1. DdG isn’t the keeper he was at his peak. Not even close
2. He’s not been close to that level for 2+ years now. Not even there in patches
3. He’s regressing and making more and more errors that are costing his team
4. He doesn’t compensate for errors by excelling in other aspects of the game

Props for completely ignoring all data and instead bringing in a completely irrelevant comparison. Nice try.
 

BenitoSTARR

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Allison missed games. Understat has team stats not Allison’s.




What part of pressure do you not get? He’s not unprofessional. He’s just made errors in a period where the pressure has eased after an incessant and relentless intensity. And this too after, as has been repeatedly stressed, it’s not the core skill he brings to his team.

Nobody hates DdG. Also, your comparing his numbers to Allison is like a strawman argument. It’s not answering the point or addressing the criticism.

The facts remain simple:
1. DdG isn’t the keeper he was at his peak. Not even close
2. He’s not been close to that level for 2+ years now. Not even there in patches
3. He’s regressing and making more and more errors that are costing his team
4. He doesn’t compensate for errors by excelling in other aspects of the game

Props for completely ignoring all data and instead bringing in a completely irrelevant comparison. Nice try.
So he makes more mistakes under less pressure to perform so he’s unprofessional.

De Gea has cost the team 6 points. Not the end of the world. Think about how many chances our attackers miss.

Not ignoring any data if you read my posts I’ve acknowledged the data you keep peddling.

When I provide other data though you say it’s not relevant because you have an agenda.

I’m allowed to agree with you but heaven forbid you acknowledge any other argument then your own
 

hmchan

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Allison missed games. Understat has team stats not Allison’s.
You're right. Now I remove the games that Alisson has missed and the conclusion is the same.

xGaGoals Conceded
Original
39.23​
32​
v Southampton (A)
2.14​
1​
v Arsenal (H)
0.99​
1​
v Burnley (A)
0.62​
0​
v Newcastle (H)
0.29​
1​
v Chelsea (A)
1.23​
1​
v Sheffield (A)
1.17​
0​
v Leicester (H)
0.10​
1​
v Everton (H)
1.76​
2​
v Bournemouth (H)
1.30​
1​
Total:​
29.63
24

And I'm not the only one who's skeptical to the stats from Skysports. They are contradicting to almost every source you can find on the Internet, which suggests Alisson is one of the best in terms of saving expected goals in the league, certainly not negative. I understand different institutions have different models calculating xG but it's interesting to see they come up with completely different conclusions (assuming Skysports hasn't misquoted the data). I guess Skysports extracts those stats from Opta and I would like to see the original data.
 

midnightmare

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So he makes more mistakes under less pressure to perform so he’s unprofessional.

De Gea has cost the team 6 points. Not the end of the world. Think about how many chances our attackers miss.

Not ignoring any data if you read my posts I’ve acknowledged the data you keep peddling.

When I provide other data though you say it’s not relevant because you have an agenda.

I’m allowed to agree with you but heaven forbid you acknowledge any other argument then your own
I’ve already highlighted that the “6 points” thing you cling to is incorrect. Yet again, you ignore. What’s the point, then? Your arguments seem to assume that if not DdG, we’ll have some child in diapers in goal. Mind, that diaper clad kid may stop a few more penalties than DdG...

You're right. Now I remove the games that Alisson has missed and the conclusion is the same.

xGaGoals Conceded
Original
39.23​
32​
v Southampton (A)
2.14​
1​
v Arsenal (H)
0.99​
1​
v Burnley (A)
0.62​
0​
v Newcastle (H)
0.29​
1​
v Chelsea (A)
1.23​
1​
v Sheffield (A)
1.17​
0​
v Leicester (H)
0.10​
1​
v Everton (H)
1.76​
2​
v Bournemouth (H)
1.30​
1​
Total:​
29.63
24

And I'm not the only one who's skeptical to the stats from Skysports. They are contradicting to almost every source you can find on the Internet, which suggests Alisson is one of the best in terms of saving expected goals in the league, certainly not negative. I understand different institutions have different models calculating xG but it's interesting to see they come up with completely different conclusions (assuming Skysports hasn't misquoted the data). I guess Skysports extracts those stats from Opta and I would like to see the original data.
Thanks. I didn’t go into this but yes, this seems far likelier to be true than Sky data - which, as is the norm doesn’t cite sources and is clearly misaligned with all sources that share data transparently.
 

Mcking

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So he makes more mistakes under less pressure to perform so he’s unprofessional.

De Gea has cost the team 6 points. Not the end of the world. Think about how many chances our attackers miss.

Not ignoring any data if you read my posts I’ve acknowledged the data you keep peddling.

When I provide other data though you say it’s not relevant because you have an agenda.

I’m allowed to agree with you but heaven forbid you acknowledge any other argument then your own
You desperately want the Sky Sports stats to be correct.
 

UnitedSofa

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https://www.manutd.com/en/club/jobs/permanent-and-temporary-opportunities

De Gea on the way out?

BIG OOF.

JOB TITLE: First Team Recruitment Analyst
ACCOUNTABLE TO: Technical Chief Scout


Purpose:
To contribute to the continued expansion and development of the recruitment analysis team at Manchester United Football club, with the specific purpose of identifying players who demonstrate the potential to play for the first team.
The Role:

The key responsibilities of the post are:
  • To contribute toward the administration and delivery of a comprehensive performance analysis service with a specific emphasis on goalkeepers.
  • To code and analyse the playing performance of potential scouting targets in specific countries and regions.
 

BenitoSTARR

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https://www.manutd.com/en/club/jobs/permanent-and-temporary-opportunities

De Gea on the way out?

BIG OOF.

JOB TITLE: First Team Recruitment Analyst
ACCOUNTABLE TO: Technical Chief Scout


Purpose:
To contribute to the continued expansion and development of the recruitment analysis team at Manchester United Football club, with the specific purpose of identifying players who demonstrate the potential to play for the first team.
The Role:

The key responsibilities of the post are:
  • To contribute toward the administration and delivery of a comprehensive performance analysis service with a specific emphasis on goalkeepers.
  • To code and analyse the playing performance of potential scouting targets in specific countries and regions.
That’s a massive oof to both De Gea and Henderson!
 

bsCallout

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Fantastic and mature words by Kasper Schmeichel about De Gea and more importantly the punditry and the responsibility they have.

Punditry isn't an easy job but half of them sure don't take their responsibility very seriously, it's not a podcast which some seem to treat it like.
 

The Irish Connection

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Certainly stepped up and actually controlled his area, did not look affected by his recent errors.
Yep. I think we should bring Henderson back though and let him play the cup games and if de Gea keeps faltering, give Henderson his shot. Might need to sell Romero which would be a shame because he has been a great backup and never complains.
 

Alemar

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Fantastic and mature words by Kasper Schmeichel about De Gea and more importantly the punditry and the responsibility they
But it isn’t surprising - of course, being his father’s son, he is unlikely to openly speak bad about Man Utd and it’s players.

Yet, definitely it is a sign of maturity on behalf of Kasper.
 

Based Adnan

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Terrible today. Almost dropped a clanger for Vardy to tap in.

Not to mention all of the crosses floated in that he was too scared to come out for. Just adds pressure on to the defence due to his unwillingness to come off his line.

If we have any sense we'll replace him - whether that's with Henderson or someone we buy it doesn't matter. Bench him if no-one will take him.
 

mu4c_20le

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I know he made at least one point blank save when both our cbs lost their man. Clean sheet, cant ask for more
 

Van Piorsing

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He better train hard before Europa matches, we can still win it and he can still be our keeper, but I feel Henderson will push harder every season and something big might happen in GK department.
 

Marcelinho87

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Terrible today. Almost dropped a clanger for Vardy to tap in.

Not to mention all of the crosses floated in that he was too scared to come out for. Just adds pressure on to the defence due to his unwillingness to come off his line.

If we have any sense we'll replace him - whether that's with Henderson or someone we buy it doesn't matter. Bench him if no-one will take him.
I think people need to realise this when blaming the defence all the time. They don't have a keeper behind them leading the line or shouting the odds.

If PS or VDS was in goal our defence would be regarded as one of the best imo because of their ability to lead the defenders ahead of them and can dominate their box... It's always been a weakness of DDG.
 
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