No longer at risk of being mistaken for a Scouser
- Oct 2, 2013
I think you miss understand my point because I am not even speculating whether or not he is overrated or whether or not you can tell if a player might be going through a purple patch if you analyse their numbers over a long period of time.We all agree that he's a good player and an even better finisher, but his goal output is heavily inflated by Fiorentina winning more penalties (5 and him taking all of them) than normal and him outscoring his xG by 58% this season, which is not sustainable in the long run. With sustainable, world class, finishing (outscoring his xG by around 25%) and Fiorentina winning a normal amount of penalties (2 or 3 in 17 games) he would sit on 9 or 10 goals and this season being the penalty taker for his team. His pricetag and international attention would obviously not be the same. If he doesn't improve in the areas mentioned, because he will almost garanteed be considered a flop for the club he goes to if he delivers the same npxG and xA numbers there. I would at least not expect him to hit the ground running if he goes to a top club now...
Other examples of players getting overrated when overperforming and/or getting to take an unnormal amount of penalties:
Ings 19/20 season: Scored 22 PL goals, outscoring his npxG with 49% and fooling a lot of people to think he is better than a 8-12 goals a season striker in the PL. His second best season: 12 goals.
Dybala 17/18 (and partly 15/16): Scored 22 (and 19), outscoring his npxG with 103%!! and taking penalties made him look a lot better than he really was. In 15/16 he scored 6 penalties. Maintained his npxG and xA through the Ronaldo-era, but scored 4, 11 and 5 goals in each of the following seasons and sits on 5 goals this season.
Paco 18/19 season for Dortmund: Scored 18 in 1181 minutes for Dortmund, outscoring his npxP with 79%. Scored 33 league goals in 6222 minutes before that and has scored 15 league goals in 3433 minutes since and pretty much scoring on par with his npxG.
Lacazette 14/15, 15/16 and 16/17 seasons for Lyon: Fooled Arsenal into thinking they bought a gem by scoring 76 league goals in those 3 seasons, scoring 20 penalties (10 penalties in 16/17 alone) and outscoring his npxG with 28%. Arsenal bought a 10-15 goals a season striker for 50M£
Pepe 18/19 season: Scored 22 goals for Lyon, with 9 of them from the penalty spot. Arsenal payed 72M£ for him, he's scored 15 league goals in 2,5 seasons since he arrived, delivering similar npxG and xA as he did in France. Pepe is 3rd in the picking order for penalties in Arsenal....
Our own Martial 19/20 season: Scored 17 and asssited 6 in 19/20 making us think that he might be the answer to our #9 issues. He outscored his npxG with 36% and played to 0,42 npxG/90 and 0,16 xA/90.
Same man the very next season: Scored 4 and assisted 4, making words like sheit, crap etc. trend his Performance-thread. He underperformed his npxG with 46%, but was actually slighty more involved than the last season when he played. His npxG was actually higher than the season before with 0,45 npxG/90 and he his xA was the same (0,16 xA/90).
Over his career he has outscored his npxG with around 15% which actually makes him a very good finisher, but his goalthreat is not very frightening since he doesn't find himself in good scoring positions often enough to make that 20+ goalscorer. With an npxG of under 0,5/90 you will never be a 20+ goals a season striker exept maybe an odd season or two in your career if you are lucky.
Greenwood is another example: Has outscored his npxG in PL with 54% so far in his career. His problem is also that he finds himself in good scoring positions way too seldom with 0,3 npxG/90. 21 PL goals in 77 (4105 minutes) games while outscoring your xG by 54% is unfortunately not sustainable and will probably drop if he doesn't improve his movement and anticipation.
I'm just saying, and it's the only thing I am saying that the team the player plays in and how they are asked to play, has an effect on said statistics and this needs to be taken into consideration