Dusan Vlahovic

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We all agree that he's a good player and an even better finisher, but his goal output is heavily inflated by Fiorentina winning more penalties (5 and him taking all of them) than normal and him outscoring his xG by 58% this season, which is not sustainable in the long run. With sustainable, world class, finishing (outscoring his xG by around 25%) and Fiorentina winning a normal amount of penalties (2 or 3 in 17 games) he would sit on 9 or 10 goals and this season being the penalty taker for his team. His pricetag and international attention would obviously not be the same. If he doesn't improve in the areas mentioned, because he will almost garanteed be considered a flop for the club he goes to if he delivers the same npxG and xA numbers there. I would at least not expect him to hit the ground running if he goes to a top club now...

Other examples of players getting overrated when overperforming and/or getting to take an unnormal amount of penalties:

Ings 19/20 season: Scored 22 PL goals, outscoring his npxG with 49% and fooling a lot of people to think he is better than a 8-12 goals a season striker in the PL. His second best season: 12 goals.

Dybala 17/18 (and partly 15/16): Scored 22 (and 19), outscoring his npxG with 103%!! and taking penalties made him look a lot better than he really was. In 15/16 he scored 6 penalties. Maintained his npxG and xA through the Ronaldo-era, but scored 4, 11 and 5 goals in each of the following seasons and sits on 5 goals this season.

Paco 18/19 season for Dortmund: Scored 18 in 1181 minutes for Dortmund, outscoring his npxP with 79%. Scored 33 league goals in 6222 minutes before that and has scored 15 league goals in 3433 minutes since and pretty much scoring on par with his npxG.

Lacazette 14/15, 15/16 and 16/17 seasons for Lyon: Fooled Arsenal into thinking they bought a gem by scoring 76 league goals in those 3 seasons, scoring 20 penalties (10 penalties in 16/17 alone) and outscoring his npxG with 28%. Arsenal bought a 10-15 goals a season striker for 50M£

Pepe 18/19 season: Scored 22 goals for Lyon, with 9 of them from the penalty spot. Arsenal payed 72M£ for him, he's scored 15 league goals in 2,5 seasons since he arrived, delivering similar npxG and xA as he did in France. Pepe is 3rd in the picking order for penalties in Arsenal....

Our own Martial 19/20 season: Scored 17 and asssited 6 in 19/20 making us think that he might be the answer to our #9 issues. He outscored his npxG with 36% and played to 0,42 npxG/90 and 0,16 xA/90.
Same man the very next season: Scored 4 and assisted 4, making words like sheit, crap etc. trend his Performance-thread. He underperformed his npxG with 46%, but was actually slighty more involved than the last season when he played. His npxG was actually higher than the season before with 0,45 npxG/90 and he his xA was the same (0,16 xA/90).

Over his career he has outscored his npxG with around 15% which actually makes him a very good finisher, but his goalthreat is not very frightening since he doesn't find himself in good scoring positions often enough to make that 20+ goalscorer. With an npxG of under 0,5/90 you will never be a 20+ goals a season striker exept maybe an odd season or two in your career if you are lucky.
Greenwood is another example: Has outscored his npxG in PL with 54% so far in his career. His problem is also that he finds himself in good scoring positions way too seldom with 0,3 npxG/90. 21 PL goals in 77 (4105 minutes) games while outscoring your xG by 54% is unfortunately not sustainable and will probably drop if he doesn't improve his movement and anticipation.
I think you miss understand my point because I am not even speculating whether or not he is overrated or whether or not you can tell if a player might be going through a purple patch if you analyse their numbers over a long period of time.

I'm just saying, and it's the only thing I am saying that the team the player plays in and how they are asked to play, has an effect on said statistics and this needs to be taken into consideration
 

Dave Smith

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One concern I would have with him coming the the PL is his pace, it Italy he seems to get away from players, but only just. In the PL he would be caught easily.

Equally, he isn't, imo in the Cavani or Ibra category of close control or technical skill. He seems a lot more like Harry Kane to me.

For me, I think he is quite hard to evaluate due to the nature/standard of Serie A and his age. If he was in the category of £40m-£60m I would probably be on board, at £70m-£80m I edge to against.

That said, I have always struggled with finding Harry Kane a great player, although I appreciate he is highly effective in front of goal.
 

MackRobinson

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The way he bullies defenders in Italy won't happen in the PL. Some of the defending in the video looked Championship level.
 

Bebestation

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The way he bullies defenders in Italy won't happen in the PL. Some of the defending in the video looked Championship level.
Plenty of fans don't think playing in a different league is really a good indicator of a players ability to be honest. Some however do. I'm waiting to see him in the PL or somewhere else before I decide if he is a good player or not.
 

Rolaholic

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MackRobinson

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Plenty of fans don't think playing in a different league is really a good indicator of a players ability to be honest. Some however do. I'm waiting to see him in the PL or somewhere else before I decide if he is a good player or not.
I'm just talking about the physical ability of defenders he dominating against. Sure there are good defenders in Serie A, but they don't seem to have the same physicality as PL defenders. I can't see him consistently shrugging off PL defenders in his hold-up play.
 

Udmaster

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He lacks pace, and the italian league is a slow paced league.
I have watched him severally, he will flop in England
 

Bosnian_fan

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I really think his lack of pace is overstated. If anything, he's well above average in terms of pace for his size.
 

ThatsGreat

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Seen Arsenal linked with him for 80m or something. Would want to spend that much only on bonafide talent like Haaland. Would be a good purchase if we can get him for 40m.
 

unplayable

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Seen Arsenal linked with him for 80m or something. Would want to spend that much only on bonafide talent like Haaland. Would be a good purchase if we can get him for 40m.
Only one year left on his contract in the summer. No chance he goes for 80m.
 

::sonny::

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One concern I would have with him coming the the PL is his pace, it Italy he seems to get away from players, but only just. In the PL he would be caught easily.

Equally, he isn't, imo in the Cavani or Ibra category of close control or technical skill. He seems a lot more like Harry Kane to me.

For me, I think he is quite hard to evaluate due to the nature/standard of Serie A and his age. If he was in the category of £40m-£60m I would probably be on board, at £70m-£80m I edge to against.

That said, I have always struggled with finding Harry Kane a great player, although I appreciate he is highly effective in front of goal.
Agreed
 

SAFMUTD

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Only one year left on his contract in the summer. No chance he goes for 80m.
No chance he goes for 40M either, there's a lack of strikers currently and at least he'll have 5-10 top teams interested in him. He's basically everybody's choice of they can't get Haaland.
 

ThierryHenry14

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Seen Arsenal linked with him for 80m or something. Would want to spend that much only on bonafide talent like Haaland. Would be a good purchase if we can get him for 40m.
you can't even get a good left back for that price, let alone the #1 goal scorer in Serie A.
 

ThatsGreat

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you can't even get a good left back for that price, let alone the #1 goal scorer in Serie A.
Its still Serie A, the last top scorer from there is riding the bench. And anyway, it doesn't look like he wants to come to Arsenal.
 

pascell

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He lacks pace, and the italian league is a slow paced league.
I have watched him severally, he will flop in England
Pace isn't needed if you have the right instincts and movement, which he has. Kane also isn't blessed with pace and apart from the start of this season, has fared more than we'll.
Seen Arsenal linked with him for 80m or something. Would want to spend that much only on bonafide talent like Haaland. Would be a good purchase if we can get him for 40m.
You're not getting him period, he's rejected you, you had a €85m bid accepted but he's only open to teams in the CL and challenging.
 

pocco

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He lacks pace, and the italian league is a slow paced league.
I have watched him severally, he will flop in England
At least he doesn't rely on pace then :lol:

Unlike Haaland who feasts on those high lines prevalent in Bundesliga. I've got questions over him myself, not sure he'd score as many facing these packed defences in the PL. If anything Vlahovic might be more used to that type of test.
 

giorno

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Its still Serie A, the last top scorer from there is riding the bench. And anyway, it doesn't look like he wants to come to Arsenal.
Ooooh, stealth burn :lol:

Too bad it's not true
 

ThatsGreat

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Pace isn't needed if you have the right instincts and movement, which he has. Kane also isn't blessed with pace and apart from the start of this season, has fared more than we'll.

You're not getting him period, he's rejected you, you had a €85m bid accepted but he's only open to teams in the CL and challenging.
He's shite, don't want him.
 

Markolan

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Its still Serie A, the last top scorer from there is riding the bench. And anyway, it doesn't look like he wants to come to Arsenal.
?? Cristiano Ronaldo is a regular starter and he's done well so far. He single-handedly carried Manchester United to the UCL KO stage with his goals.
About "it's still Serie A", don't forget that one of your best player come from Bologna.
He was bang average in Serie A last season (His Gazzettadellosport rating for example: 5,98). No decent italian team wanted to sign in the summer, moved to Arsenal on deadline day and has been fantastic for you since then.
----
About Vlahovic (to remain in topic).. I've the feeling he'll stay at Fiorentina until the end of the season and then move to Juventus for about € 50 million (Juve will most likely sell De Ligt next summer).
€ 50 million is fair price for someone who has only 1 year left on his contract
 
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SportingCP96

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I feel he has flop written all over him when he moves on to bigger waters.

Just a hunch and nothing really to back it up.
 

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He Looks great, i remember him bullying Ruben Diaz in the away game for Serbia in Lisbon, he toyed with the portuguese.

I can see him going to Juve, i don't think he will end up in the PL, unless it's City who buys him... due to his price.
I can understand why he rejected Arsenal, no major improvement from Fiorentina to Arsenal right now, both don't play CL football, and i think he wants european football.
 

LuckyScout78

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I really like his guts, energy and determination. Definitely good enough for top 4 in the biggest 5 league.

Same for Patrich Schick for Bayer Leverkusen.

Two really good upcoming left foot CF. Beside Haaland. Alternatives
 

TheRedHearted

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This guy looks the real deal to me. I said in the summer that, if I was at Spurs, I'd have let Kane go and brought this guy in, probably making a good profit in the process.
Didn’t they try? With Conte now if they tried again I could see it happening, if Kane stays or goes it’s sort of a win win for Conte in my eyes. Either he gets the transfer money or he keeps Kane who will still be useful
He Looks great, i remember him bullying Ruben Diaz in the away game for Serbia in Lisbon, he toyed with the portuguese.

I can see him going to Juve, i don't think he will end up in the PL, unless it's City who buys him... due to his price.
I can understand why he rejected Arsenal, no major improvement from Fiorentina to Arsenal right now, both don't play CL football, and i think he wants european football.

Im certain Chelsea or city will buy this guy this winter window. They’re both so desperate for a striker
 

RedSemiPro

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A qoute from the Fiorentina Fangpage refering to Vlahovics performance yesterday:

"Surprise, surprise, the Serbian is the highest rated player once again. He didn’t get on the scoresheet but was absolutely instrumental in the Tanino equalizer. Held the ball up well all day long and set up teammates on more than one occasion to score. Probably could’ve had a goal himself, but it wasn’t to be today. He may be as good as gone but that hasn’t stopped him from giving his heart and soul every game. Very mature from the young Serb."

This is exactly why I personally think we should go for him. Maybe he won't keep up to the so called "xG", maybe he won't produce the same numbers as Haaland (which, as I already mentioned, will fortunately unfortunately never be a United player), but he'll make our overall attack better, he'll make our wingers better, he'll constantly drag two defenders and most important thing he'll leave his heart on the pitch. Don't expect him to put his head down, when things go downhill or he is going through a goalless patch - he seems to be the type of player, who will work even harder to get back on the line of success (Lukaku, cough, cough).
 

troylocker

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A qoute from the Fiorentina Fangpage refering to Vlahovics performance yesterday:

"Surprise, surprise, the Serbian is the highest rated player once again. He didn’t get on the scoresheet but was absolutely instrumental in the Tanino equalizer. Held the ball up well all day long and set up teammates on more than one occasion to score. Probably could’ve had a goal himself, but it wasn’t to be today. He may be as good as gone but that hasn’t stopped him from giving his heart and soul every game. Very mature from the young Serb."

This is exactly why I personally think we should go for him. Maybe he won't keep up to the so called "xG", maybe he won't produce the same numbers as Haaland (which, as I already mentioned, will fortunately unfortunately never be a United player), but he'll make our overall attack better, he'll make our wingers better, he'll constantly drag two defenders and most important thing he'll leave his heart on the pitch. Don't expect him to put his head down, when things go downhill or he is going through a goalless patch - he seems to be the type of player, who will work even harder to get back on the line of success (Lukaku, cough, cough).
Why in the world would you go for a striker that won't score as much or assist as much before the train definitely has left the station for the player that will score that much and assist that much? The battle for Haalands signature hasn't even started yet, and going for another striker now would mean we are out of that battle. A hard no!

Some stat comparisons with Haaland that tells a lot about what kind of players they both are and qualities they possess from Serie A and Bundesliga this season:

Possession:
Dusan has 34 touches on the ball per 90 on average, Erling has 35.
Dusan carries the ball on average 21,8 times per game, Erling averages on 18,6.
Out of those carries 8,3% is progressive for Dusan, while 17,7% of Erlings carries is progressive.
Of these carries Dusan enters the last third with the ball 0,69 times per game, Erling enters the last third 1,1 times per game.
Of these carries Dusan enters the penalty area with the ball 0,32 times per game, Erling enters the penalty area with the ball 1,8 times per game!!
Dusan is dispossessed while carrying the ball 2,93 times per game, Erling is dispossessed while carrying the ball 0,9 times per game.

Pressing:
Dusan presses 9 times per 90, Erling presses 12,3 times per 90
Dusan presses 5,4 times per 90 in the final 3rd, Erling presses 8,3 times per 90 in the final 3rd.

They are both targets for high longballs:
Dusan has participated in 4,7 aerial duels per game and won 44,9% of them, Erling has participated in 4,4 aerial duels per game and won 68,2% of them.

Passing:
Dusan has 69,9% pass completion, Erling has 70%
Dusan completes 1,1 progressive pass per 90, Erling completes 1,9 progressive passes per 90
Dusen completes 0,59 passes into the penalty area per 90, Erling completes 1,3 passes into the penalty area per 90.
Dusan's xA per 90 = 0,10 , Erling's xA per 90 = 0,31

Goals and contribution:
Dusan has scored or assisted 0,69 non-penalty goals per 90 this season
Erling has scored or assisted 1,5 non-penalty goals per 90 this season

Erling is ultra fast, while Dusan is not.

If we give Haaland a good go and miss out on him, then we should have a plan B ready, but until then he should be plan A.
 

Nou_Camp99

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He will go to Dortmund I reckon in the summer to replace Haaland. That would be a good next step for him too.
 

::sonny::

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Why in the world would you go for a striker that won't score as much or assist as much before the train definitely has left the station for the player that will score that much and assist that much? The battle for Haalands signature hasn't even started yet, and going for another striker now would mean we are out of that battle. A hard no!

Some stat comparisons with Haaland that tells a lot about what kind of players they both are and qualities they possess from Serie A and Bundesliga this season:

Possession:
Dusan has 34 touches on the ball per 90 on average, Erling has 35.
Dusan carries the ball on average 21,8 times per game, Erling averages on 18,6.
Out of those carries 8,3% is progressive for Dusan, while 17,7% of Erlings carries is progressive.
Of these carries Dusan enters the last third with the ball 0,69 times per game, Erling enters the last third 1,1 times per game.
Of these carries Dusan enters the penalty area with the ball 0,32 times per game, Erling enters the penalty area with the ball 1,8 times per game!!
Dusan is dispossessed while carrying the ball 2,93 times per game, Erling is dispossessed while carrying the ball 0,9 times per game.

Pressing:
Dusan presses 9 times per 90, Erling presses 12,3 times per 90
Dusan presses 5,4 times per 90 in the final 3rd, Erling presses 8,3 times per 90 in the final 3rd.

They are both targets for high longballs:
Dusan has participated in 4,7 aerial duels per game and won 44,9% of them, Erling has participated in 4,4 aerial duels per game and won 68,2% of them.

Passing:
Dusan has 69,9% pass completion, Erling has 70%
Dusan completes 1,1 progressive pass per 90, Erling completes 1,9 progressive passes per 90
Dusen completes 0,59 passes into the penalty area per 90, Erling completes 1,3 passes into the penalty area per 90.
Dusan's xA per 90 = 0,10 , Erling's xA per 90 = 0,31

Goals and contribution:
Dusan has scored or assisted 0,69 non-penalty goals per 90 this season
Erling has scored or assisted 1,5 non-penalty goals per 90 this season

Erling is ultra fast, while Dusan is not.

If we give Haaland a good go and miss out on him, then we should have a plan B ready, but until then he should be plan A.
Different leagues, the Italian is hardest for strikers
 

VP89

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From the articles above he's sounding a bit like a young Cavani :cool:
 

Remember the geese

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Why in the world would you go for a striker that won't score as much or assist as much before the train definitely has left the station for the player that will score that much and assist that much? The battle for Haalands signature hasn't even started yet, and going for another striker now would mean we are out of that battle. A hard no!

Some stat comparisons with Haaland that tells a lot about what kind of players they both are and qualities they possess from Serie A and Bundesliga this season:

Possession:
Dusan has 34 touches on the ball per 90 on average, Erling has 35.
Dusan carries the ball on average 21,8 times per game, Erling averages on 18,6.
Out of those carries 8,3% is progressive for Dusan, while 17,7% of Erlings carries is progressive.
Of these carries Dusan enters the last third with the ball 0,69 times per game, Erling enters the last third 1,1 times per game.
Of these carries Dusan enters the penalty area with the ball 0,32 times per game, Erling enters the penalty area with the ball 1,8 times per game!!
Dusan is dispossessed while carrying the ball 2,93 times per game, Erling is dispossessed while carrying the ball 0,9 times per game.

Pressing:
Dusan presses 9 times per 90, Erling presses 12,3 times per 90
Dusan presses 5,4 times per 90 in the final 3rd, Erling presses 8,3 times per 90 in the final 3rd.

They are both targets for high longballs:
Dusan has participated in 4,7 aerial duels per game and won 44,9% of them, Erling has participated in 4,4 aerial duels per game and won 68,2% of them.

Passing:
Dusan has 69,9% pass completion, Erling has 70%
Dusan completes 1,1 progressive pass per 90, Erling completes 1,9 progressive passes per 90
Dusen completes 0,59 passes into the penalty area per 90, Erling completes 1,3 passes into the penalty area per 90.
Dusan's xA per 90 = 0,10 , Erling's xA per 90 = 0,31

Goals and contribution:
Dusan has scored or assisted 0,69 non-penalty goals per 90 this season
Erling has scored or assisted 1,5 non-penalty goals per 90 this season

Erling is ultra fast, while Dusan is not.

If we give Haaland a good go and miss out on him, then we should have a plan B ready, but until then he should be plan A.
Have you ever met Amadaeus? I reckon you'd get on great.
 

BorisManUtd

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He will go to Dortmund I reckon in the summer to replace Haaland. That would be a good next step for him too.
Yeah, that would be wise move for him probably, just like it was for Haaland. He'll be 22 in January so very young still, no urgent need to move to top club/team asap.