Elliot Anderson | Athletic: United's main target

[neverdie]

Gladly we dodged the bullet, but it is there.

Don't think that's right. I'd say should sign both but maybe with a 20-40m cut on one of them. The start price for Baleba, which was 60/70m was reasonable, it was the 100m figure that wasn't and was only for timing and difference between valuations which didn't allow it to happen. i.e., not sure it's a bullet dodged when he wasn't a 100m player in evaluation to begin with.

but i'd sign both. Baleba will be back again and the price will go higher. Anderson is as certain as it gets for that position given age and fees being spoken of (outside of the likes of certain absolute best in the world players at similar ages).

 

[neverdie]

I am very skeptical about the 100m price. I think he is like a 60-70 player.

- He is below average for CMs in goal contributions.

- He is good defensively but below the elite players

- Passing is good but not elite

- Best part of his game is probably carries and take-ons.

While he is a good all round CM, he is not elite in creativity or in stopping the opposition. For comparisons to Rice or Caicedo. Rice is 94% for NP Goals and 95% for assists. Caicedo has 93% pass completion and 75% progressive passing and is genuinely elite as a DM.

Overall a good solid CM who will improve us significantly but not deserving of 100m price tag.

In an era of stats which are important it's easy to overwhelm or distort.

With midfielders, I go to stats usually secondary beyond the usual most commonly used. I want to see if they pass the eye test and this lad does. Which sounds almost 1980s in method but it's more reliable to me, historically, regarding any player I've ever formed opinions on, with stats, than stats alone. Style of play is excellent and he can boss games in the right side (consider how shite NF are this season).

On stats, I just mean someone else can easily flood the place with counter stats and it's only interesting, at that level of statistical trade off, imo, if you haven't seen the player play (for me).

 

[Baneofthegame]

I’d pay 60+addons for him, no way he’s a 100+ player imo.

 

[neverdie]

I’d pay 60+addons for him, no way he’s a 100+ player imo.

Here's the thing. If he goes in the summer and United even announce they aren't in for him, he'll go for something like 100m given 1) ability, 2) English, and 3) inflated market prices for 1 and 2.

The sheer volume of players I've seen in the past three years where I've thought "this is clearly not A yM pound player" (but from an era where Zidane broke the record -- and if that's the standard, which held relatively well in market terms until the past decade or so, then most fail it).

There'll be a bidding war unless he has his own preference. That'll make the 100m easily enough.

 

[Mcking]

Caicedo had the It-factor for me and you could see that not only was he shining then, but that he has more gears to go up. I was fanboying in his transfer threads because he was an exceptional player in the making for me.

As I say, with Anderson, I just hope you guys are right and me being underwhelmed for the price point is down to not seeing his best performances.

You'll probably see more of him as his name keeps coming up. He absolutely stands out in midfield most games. Showing up for the ball, dropping into the defensive line, turning on the ball, on the front-foot, driving forward, passing between the lines, switching play, and generally influential in possession.

Defensively, you feel like he's everywhere at the same time. He is comfortable in a holding position, covers plenty of ground, is strong in duels, and wins back possession more than every other player in the league. I don't know what else to look for from a defensive midfielder. He reminds me of Thiago Silva in the sense that he covers every aspect of his position. Not that he's at Silva's best level yet, but he shows the same all-round ability for a midfielder.

 

[Hernandez - BFA]

He’s a no brainer target for how he’s playing and the type of player he is. Hopefully Forest don’t take the piss and hopefully he’d like to join us as I’m sure he’ll have suitors queuing for him.

 

[The Boy]

I'd be amazed if forest agreed to sell in January, he is the heart of that team.

 

[B20]

They basically just took a fair valuation and doubled it, didn't they?

 

[The Boy]

They basically just took a fair valuation and doubled it, didn't they?

Not really if Rice and Caicedo both moved for 100M plus, they probably want the same.

 

[RedSky]

Rice had several seasons worth of PL football no?

 

[The Boy]

Rice had several seasons worth of PL football no?

Rice had 6 seasons playing regularly for west ham, at the end of this season Anderson will have had 4 playing for Newcastle and Forest.

 

[Santos J]

Rice had 6 seasons playing regularly for west ham, at the end of this season Anderson will have had 4 playing for Newcastle and Forest.

Playing regularly is pushing it a bit for him at Newcastle, 22/23 he made 3 starts and played 390 minutes total

 

[Trigestis]

Rice had several seasons worth of PL football no?

No time to waste. If we don't get him, someone else will, and we can all ask what we were doing like we did with Rice. Caicedo played a season with Brighton, Enzo Fernandez played 17 games for Benfica. They cost over £200m total.

Midfielders like him with such a vast skill set performing like he is in Premier League at his age is just rare. Add the fact that we are in a tight situation where we need a midfield overhaul, we should do everything we can to get him.

 

[Bilbo]

Hes a must buy. We can't afford to let him go elsewhere

 

[The Boy]

Playing regularly is pushing it a bit for him at Newcastle, 22/23 he made 3 starts and played 390 minutes total

I just glanced at wiki which said he made 27 appearances in that season, no mention of minutes.

 

[DWelbz19]

I just glanced at wiki which said he made 27 appearances in that season, no mention of minutes.

3 starts in 2022/23 like Santos J says. 10 starts and 11 sub appearances in 2023/24. Last year was his first full and proper season

 

[V.O.]

Looks the beating heart of that team whenever I see them. Prices being thrown around are crazy, but they always are now.

Newcastle fans must be sick knowing he was sold only to fiddle the books a bit.

 

[DWelbz19]

I like Anderson, he clearly has a decent skill set and was a big part of Forest’s successes last year. His stats and the eye test come out pretty well. However, becomes an obvious question of juice being worth the squeeze if they start banding £100m+ figures out like this.

I always think (somewhat seriously and somewhat flippantly) — surely there’s some Spanish geezer pinging it about somewhere who might be available for half the fee? Normally can’t go wrong with Spanish central midfielders. Zubimendi at Arsenal has turned out to be a huge upgrade on HMPartey — averaging 60+ passes a game on the regular with most of them being progressive. Nico Gonzalez is now starting to find his footing at City doing similar sorts of things etc.

 

[AngeloHenriquez]

Everybody clamored over Baleba last year and this is Anderson's first season properly in the league, so many players drop off 2nd season (See Mainoo for us) I'd want another season to see how he does before dropping that sort of money on him, I'd have him below Rice, Caicedo, Gravenberch, Guimares, Tonali, Rodri etc so I'd cautiously wait.

 

[Santos J]

Everybody clamored over Baleba last year and this is Anderson's first season properly in the league, so many players drop off 2nd season (See Mainoo for us) I'd want another season to see how he does before dropping that sort of money on him, I'd have him below Rice, Caicedo, Gravenberch, Guimares, Tonali, Rodri etc so I'd cautiously wait.

It isn't, he played all but 1 game in the league for Forest last season

 

[userman]

Everybody clamored over Baleba last year and this is Anderson's first season properly in the league, so many players drop off 2nd season (See Mainoo for us) I'd want another season to see how he does before dropping that sort of money on him, I'd have him below Rice, Caicedo, Gravenberch, Guimares, Tonali, Rodri etc so I'd cautiously wait.

What do you mean its his first season? He played 37 matches in the PL last season, and in total he has 92 PL-appearances...

 

[Trigestis]

Everybody clamored over Baleba last year and this is Anderson's first season properly in the league, so many players drop off 2nd season (See Mainoo for us) I'd want another season to see how he does before dropping that sort of money on him, I'd have him below Rice, Caicedo, Gravenberch, Guimares, Tonali, Rodri etc so I'd cautiously wait.

And he would probably have continued his form if he got his wish to join us. His head has evidently been completely turned, and he is probably thinking about what could have been et cetera. It is not like he lost his abilities and skill set immediately during the summer. He is not some one season wonder. He dominated top midfielders in the league on several occasions.

The question is if we want to follow up our interest in someone like that, because some would consider that mentally fragile. But he is a young man who may have witnessed a once-in-a-lifetime experience vanish in front of his eyes, purely because his club put up a ridiculous price tag on him, and he knows it. He may be really resentful towards them, even if it is their right to do so. @The Boy probably has some more knowledge on this than me.

 

[AngeloHenriquez]

It isn't, he played all but 1 game in the league for Forest last season

What do you mean its his first season? He played 37 matches in the PL last season, and in total he has 92 PL-appearances...

And he would probably have continued his form if he got his wish to join us. His head has evidently been completely turned, and he is probably thinking about what could have been et cetera. It is not like he lost his abilities and skill set immediately during the summer. He is not some one season wonder. He dominated top midfielders in the league on several occasions.

The question is if we want to follow up our interest in someone like that, because some would consider that mentally fragile. But he is a young man who may have witnessed a once-in-a-lifetime experience vanish in front of his eyes, purely because his club put up a ridiculous price tag on him, and he knows it. He may be really resentful towards them, even if it is their right to do so. @The Boy probably has some more knowledge on this than me.

Fair points, I didn't realise this was his second season - I'm not an expert on the lad so can't comment on the price but 100m for anyone is something Ineos have said before they want to avoid.

 

[FlawlessVictory88]

I am very skeptical about the 100m price. I think he is like a 60-70 player.

- He is below average for CMs in goal contributions.

- He is good defensively but below the elite players

- Passing is good but not elite

- Best part of his game is probably carries and take-ons.

While he is a good all round CM, he is not elite in creativity or in stopping the opposition. For comparisons to Rice or Caicedo. Rice is 94% for NP Goals and 95% for assists. Caicedo has 93% pass completion and 75% progressive passing and is genuinely elite as a DM.

Overall a good solid CM who will improve us significantly but not deserving of 100m price tag.

Here is Anderson last season Vs Caicedo in his season at Brighton before spent 120m on him: https://ibb.co/gbGhHSP9

Caicedo is considerably worse in all things attacking.

I think I need to see a lot more of him because he doesn’t impress me to the extent of being some marquee signing and he’s miles off what Caicedo was, which prompted the bidding war. Not sure he even looks like Rice’s level before he moved.

Wharton’s fitness is starting to become a worry, however.

If we do land him, I hope you guys singing his praises are spot on because he feels overrated to me at the moment.

Except that we have clear evidence that he's in fact not at all off what Caicedo was. Above I posted Anderson last season vs Caicedo in his last season at Brighton before he moved for 100m+

Here's Anderson Vs Caicedo in the league so far this season:https://ibb.co/XrcvSyqG

I've also posted comparisons of Anderson Vs Rice before he moved and Anderson was to the surprise of no one who actually bases their opinion on facts rather than eye test and vibes as good if not better.

In an era of stats which are important it's easy to overwhelm or distort.

With midfielders, I go to stats usually secondary beyond the usual most commonly used. I want to see if they pass the eye test and this lad does. Which sounds almost 1980s in method but it's more reliable to me, historically, regarding any player I've ever formed opinions on, with stats, than stats alone. Style of play is excellent and he can boss games in the right side (consider how shite NF are this season).

On stats, I just mean someone else can easily flood the place with counter stats and it's only interesting, at that level of statistical trade off, imo, if you haven't seen the player play (for me).

Please give me examples of distorted stats?

 

[IRN-BRUno]

Nobody knew about Gibbs-White's release clause until Spurs activated it so there's the possibility that he has one too.

You feel with Marinakis that not getting on the wrong side of him is as important as anything else when it comes to dealing with Forest. Trying to sign him in January when they're not going to sell won't help, anyone looking to unsettle him with a low initial offer or tap him up is also less likely to get a deal agreed. We've done a few transfers with them in recent years (Garner and Henderson loans, Elanga) so maybe there's a decent relationship there to start things off.

 

[neverdie]

Please give me examples of distorted stats?

Consider his passing overall. It's basically excellent but I know this from two things. Watching him play and then passing accuracy.

Overkill, to me, will be the isolation of certain statistics (en masse) to obscure the above two facts regarding his overall play in a not-so-good NF team. It's more a general critique than anything aimed at anyone.

 

[ron86]

Its a fair point. West Ham were 14th in that season vs NF in CL spots most of last season?

The main point I was making was that I am not seeing a WC player from a goal threat, creativity or defending perspective. More of a ack of all trades with top quality press resistance.

I'd argue thats exactly what we need in this formation

 

[BuzzKillington]

Nobody knew about Gibbs-White's release clause until Spurs activated it so there's the possibility that he has one too.

You feel with Marinakis that not getting on the wrong side of him is as important as anything else when it comes to dealing with Forest. Trying to sign him in January when they're not going to sell won't help, anyone looking to unsettle him with a low initial offer or tap him up is also less likely to get a deal agreed. We've done a few transfers with them in recent years (Garner and Henderson loans, Elanga) so maybe there's a decent relationship there to start things off.

Maybe, but Marinakis approach to premier league survival seems to hinge on signing swarms of players at a fairly low amount. £60-£70m in forests pocket may allow them to bring in some players for the new manager which may keep them up.

 

[Solius]

When I picture him in my head he has Ross Barkley’s face.

 

[FlawlessVictory88]

Consider his passing overall. It's basically excellent but I know this from two things. Watching him play and then passing accuracy.

Overkill, to me, will be the isolation of certain statistics (en masse) to obscure the above two facts regarding his overall play in a not-so-good NF team. It's more a general critique than anything aimed at anyone.

If someone is criticising his passing with an isolated stat then you can easily debunk it with more complete analysis. Anderson is among the bets in the league for line breaking passes, if the criticism is overall passes made then that's just a result of him being in a Nottingham Forrest team that was among the lowest in the league for possession, so you can adjust for possession.

Almost any bad argument made using stats can be debunked with a more in depth breakdown.

I will say it's funny seeing the Adam Wharton fanboys complain about Anderson passing totals before they realise he's in the bottom half of the league for passes attempted.

 

[Remember the geese]

When I picture him in my head he has Ross Barkley’s face.

It's not too far off.

 

[goldenboy]

I always think (somewhat seriously and somewhat flippantly) — surely there’s some Spanish geezer pinging it about somewhere who might be available for half the fee? Normally can’t go wrong with Spanish central midfielders. Zubimendi at Arsenal has turned out to be a huge upgrade on HMPartey — averaging 60+ passes a game on the regular with most of them being progressive. Nico Gonzalez is now starting to find his footing at City doing similar sorts of things etc.

You kind of answered your own question there - Arsenal and Man City have already jumped ahead of United for a couple of the more obvious potential Spanish CM signings about. There aren't infinite numbers of top-drawer and gettable Spanish CMs at a given time.

Chema Andres at Stuttgart looks like a very promising Rodri-type DM and potential long-term Casemiro replacement who could be gettable for maybe a 40-50mil fee. However, Real Madrid have a cheap buy-back clause they could well exercise, and even if he was gettable he's still only 20 so might need a season or two to get up to speed in the PL.

 

[Mcking]

If someone is criticising his passing with an isolated stat then you can easily debunk it with more complete analysis. Anderson is among the bets in the league for line breaking passes, if the criticism is overall passes made then that's just a result of him being in a Nottingham Forrest team that was among the lowest in the league for possession, so you can adjust for possession.

Almost any bad argument made using stats can be debunked with a more in depth breakdown.

I will say it's funny seeing the Adam Wharton fanboys complain about Anderson passing totals before they realise he's in the bottom half of the league for passes attempted.

You don't even have to go there. He has completed the most passes among midfielders in the Premier League this season. Only Virgil van Dijk, Lewis Dunk, and Paul van Hecke (all centre backs) have completed more passes than him in the Premier League this season.

 

[FlawlessVictory88]

You don't even have to go there. He has completed the most passes among midfielders in the Premier League this season. Only Virgil van Dijk, Lewis Dunk, and Paul van Hecke (all centre backs) have completed more passes than him in the Premier League this season.

Exactly although I think his volume was that high due to Ange coming in trying to cosplay as Pep with high volume possession. I expect over a larger sample size with Dyche it'll look closer to Nuno but that's guessing on my part.

 

[nickm]

Looks the beating heart of that team whenever I see them. Prices being thrown around are crazy, but they always are now.

We need someone who controls the tempo of our play, as Carrick did and as Keane did. I think Anderson can perform that role for us.

 

[DWelbz19]

You kind of answered your own question there - Arsenal and Man City have already jumped ahead of United for a couple of the more obvious potential Spanish CM signings about. There aren't infinite numbers of top-drawer and gettable Spanish CMs at a given time.

Chema Andres at Stuttgart looks like a very promising Rodri-type DM and potential long-term Casemiro replacement who could be gettable for maybe a 40-50mil fee. However, Real Madrid have a cheap buy-back clause they could well exercise, and even if he was gettable he's still only 20 so might need a season or two to get up to speed in the PL.

Probably right, yeah. I’ve seen a few tactico tweets about Andres who looks good on the stats, could be an interesting option if we keep Casemiro an additional year and rotate him around…

 

[Zumbi]

I like Anderson, he clearly has a decent skill set and was a big part of Forest’s successes last year. His stats and the eye test come out pretty well. However, becomes an obvious question of juice being worth the squeeze if they start banding £100m+ figures out like this.

I always think (somewhat seriously and somewhat flippantly) — surely there’s some Spanish geezer pinging it about somewhere who might be available for half the fee? Normally can’t go wrong with Spanish central midfielders. Zubimendi at Arsenal has turned out to be a huge upgrade on HMPartey — averaging 60+ passes a game on the regular with most of them being progressive. Nico Gonzalez is now starting to find his footing at City doing similar sorts of things etc.

If there is, then we should get them as well. We need two signings at CM anyway, and it makes sense for one of them to be Prem proven which will come at a premium.

Ugarte is nowhere near good enough, Mainoo hasn’t been able to produce what we need in a midfield two, and the clock is ticking for Casemiro.

 

[Tallis]

I'd argue thats exactly what we need in this formation

I agree. I had actually written another sentence in my post saying the same thing (which I deleted). My argument is not against the player but just the price.

 

[gaffs]

He will be a £90mil player, at least. More if he is signed after a good World Cup.
No chance Forest let him go in January.

 

[andersj]

They basically just took a fair valuation and doubled it, didn't they?

Maybe they saw what Wirtz went for?

I think Dyche could put down his valuation. Playing for a Dyche team will not get the best out of him. Of that, I am quite confident.