EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.

[711]

I suspect the Governor of the Bank of England doesn't think a referendum is a good idea:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32733033

Personally I have been waiting for one for years, hoping to clean up big-style in the betting markets. Trouble is though, now it is actually coming I am no longer sure of the result. If it were just down to economics I would expect a resounding 'Stop In', but the immigration issue makes it a whole different matter. If the UK does stop in, then it will have no control over immigration, and an awful lot of people might vote against that, I think.

 

[Ubik]

Is there a majority of anti-immigration sentiment, though? I'm not so sure. The economy is usually the driver in this kind of decision making, and as you say, in that department the "Stay" campaign has most of the arguments won already, just a case of making sure they're embedded in the minds of the electorate. It'll be a case of everyone vs UKIP and a faction of the Tories.

 

[Simbo]

I do like Mark Carney, he comes across as the kind of fella you wish were running your country but wouldn't because it'd limit his earnings potential too much.

ON the EU Referendum I kinda feel like it'll be an overwhelming "stay" result, but yeh it is about getting the message across to the electorate.

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

Did he just call British workers lazy in general?

Spoiler: Lazy

British productivity is awful and has been for years.

Take computerised lathes, hi-tech equipment that costs hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy. You might think that British and German workers with such a piece of kit would make the same number of widgets or car parts or whatever.

But they don't. Experts tell me there are two main reasons. German workers are more highly trained, so get more out of the machine. The second is that when it breaks down or needs reprogramming, they can do it themselves. British workers turn off the lathe and wait for an expert to come and fix it.

Just one example of a much wider problem that explains why a German, French or US worker can produce as much as a British one and still take every Friday off.

 

[Ubik]

Nope, just the fact that our productivity as an objective measure is one of the prime factors holding our economy back. As it even says in the quote you've given, it's a factor of education and training rather than effort in this case.

 

[711]

Did he just call British workers lazy in general?

Spoiler: Lazy

British productivity is awful and has been for years.

Take computerised lathes, hi-tech equipment that costs hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy. You might think that British and German workers with such a piece of kit would make the same number of widgets or car parts or whatever.

But they don't. Experts tell me there are two main reasons. German workers are more highly trained, so get more out of the machine. The second is that when it breaks down or needs reprogramming, they can do it themselves. British workers turn off the lathe and wait for an expert to come and fix it.

Just one example of a much wider problem that explains why a German, French or US worker can produce as much as a British one and still take every Friday off.

Not true in the car industry though, where British workers can compete with any in the world. With Japanese management instead of the class-based twits that were there before, anyway.

 

[Member 5225]

I'd vote out.

 

[soap]

I'm almost definitely voting in, but I'm glad were having a referendum just to put the issue to bed. My intuition tells me the turnout will be low, am I correct in thinking this?

 

[711]

The 1975 referendum turnout was 67%, a bit less than the general elections of that era, but not by that much.

 

[saivet]

I'll probably be voting to remain in the EU. I imagine that the majority of the country will do too. Plus Cameron and I imagine many newspapers will be encouraging people to vote to remain.

 

[Pexbo]

A huge majority will vote to stay in. Nearly 80% I reckon.

 

[sun_tzu]

There is a number of issues to sort out even beyond the timing and these apparent concessions dc thinks he can get.
Who will be able to vote? Bits living abroad, non UK passport holders living in the UK?
What will the exact wording of the question be.
Will there be advertising caps / limits
Will there be TV debates (potentially several leaders vs farrage)
What happens if say Scotland votes to stay in by a massive percentage but the whole of the uk votes to come out?
What happens if the uk votes to stay in but England votes to come out then Scotland leaves the union
Will we still be eligable for the American and Chinese trade agreements.
Will 16 year old get the vote like in the Scottish referendum
Will all European footballers require work permits if we leave... I want us to stay but so many issues to clarify before its time to vote... And I suspect a weak £ in the meantime

 

[sun_tzu]

I'm almost definitely voting in, but I'm glad were having a referendum just to put the issue to bed. My intuition tells me the turnout will be low, am I correct in thinking this?

Look what happened in Scotland... I suspect it could be a very high turnout

 

[sun_tzu]

Personally I have been waiting for one for years, hoping to clean up big-style in the betting markets.

On odds checker
Stay in 1/10 (odds on)
Come out 11/2

 

[711]

On odds checker
Stay in 1/10 (odds on)
Come out 11/2

I was dredging up memories of many years ago, when the odds were quite different. Boring for now, sorry. I've noticed people saying the newspapers will be for staying in, which surprises me. Guardian and Independent maybe, but aren't the rest anti-immigrant and anti-EU?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I was dredging up memories of many years ago, when the odds were quite different. Boring for now, sorry. I've noticed people saying the newspapers will be for staying in, which surprises me. Guardian and Independent maybe, but aren't the rest anti-immigrant and anti-EU?

They are more pro rich London than anything else.

It was funny seeing Farage on Question Time last night saying that he wants a cap on what the Tories can spend on promoting a stay in vote.

 

[Sassy Colin]

I think it would be pretty disastrous for the country to be out of Europe.

 

[sun_tzu]

It was funny seeing Farage on Question Time last night saying that he wants a cap on what the Tories can spend on promoting a stay in vote.

He also does not think it will be a full and fair referendum unless the the question is something like
"Do you wish to be a free, independent sovereign democracy?’’

whilst the current proposal is (I think)
"Should the UK remain a member of the European Union?" (Which Farrage thinks is unfair apparently)

He also wants the vote in 2015 (with no renegotiation first)
He thinks EU citizens living here should be banned from having a vote (not sure if we wants UK citizens living in Europe (or elsewhere in the world) to be allowed to vote or not?
Plus the caps you mention on spending (presumably as he knows big business will back the in vote)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...ere-my-German-wife-is-banned-from-voting.html

 

[sun_tzu]

I was dredging up memories of many years ago, when the odds were quite different. Boring for now, sorry. I've noticed people saying the newspapers will be for staying in, which surprises me. Guardian and Independent maybe, but aren't the rest anti-immigrant and anti-EU?

the daily racist (mail) will probably openly call for us to be out of europe - many will sit on the fence though because many of their major advertisers (Banks, car companies, mobile phone companies, life assurers etc who can buy full pages regularly) want to stay in Europe and probably wouldn't want to buy full page adverts next to something opposed to that

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Committed Eurosceptic that i am, i can't help thinking that the No Campaign would benefit from some additional faces. The lower profile Farage of several years ago had broader appeal, whereas the present vintage is damaged from the election and its fallout. I believe that the case for leaving can be won on its merits, provided that there are no unnecesseary hindrances.

 

[Flying_Heckfish]

Hopefully, the referendum will give everyone time to consider why we are in the EU and what our role actually is.

I believe we should stay in it, but also that we should have more power within it - as a country and as individuals. There needs to be more direct interaction between the Euro government and those who live in the EU. It just seems so disconnected from us that it's little wonder people feel like it is all a big con.

 

[devilish]

If the UK remains in the Eu then they should consider voting for farage out of there

 

[ThierryHenry]

I'm worried by the possibility of the Pro-EU side making the exact same errors that the 'Better Together' campaign did. Tristam Hunt on QT yesterday was doing exactly that, scaring people with nonsense about the country crumbling without the EU.

Clegg would be an ideal front-man for the campaign if he wasn't such a toxic brand.

 

[Shamwow]

Not true in the car industry though, where British workers can compete with any in the world. With Japanese management instead of the class-based twits that were there before, anyway.

That's because the Japanese are extremely good at manufacturing management. Anyone who has studied mechanical engineering has probably done a module on Taichi Onho's teachings at Toyota.

 

[Shamwow]

I was dredging up memories of many years ago, when the odds were quite different. Boring for now, sorry. I've noticed people saying the newspapers will be for staying in, which surprises me. Guardian and Independent maybe, but aren't the rest anti-immigrant and anti-EU?

The papers will do what their advertisers tell them to do in this case.

 

[Zarlak]

I'm worried by the possibility of the Pro-EU side making the exact same errors that the 'Better Together' campaign did. Tristam Hunt on QT yesterday was doing exactly that, scaring people with nonsense about the country crumbling without the EU.

Clegg would be an ideal front-man for the campaign if he wasn't such a toxic brand.

It's important to note that the Anti-EU often paint the same picture, of the country crumbling with the EU. It depends on the opinion of the person painting the picture.

 

[peterstorey]

I think it would be pretty disastrous for the country to be out of Europe.

£50Bn/year off GDP they reckon.

 

[Tyrion]

A huge majority will vote to stay in. Nearly 80% I reckon.

You'd be a brave man to put money on that. Every poll I've seen has either favoured the 'Leave EU' side or had a tiny lead for the 'Stay' side.

I think if the argument was purely about the economy then it would probably be that result, and that margin, but immigration, a Eurosceptic press and (understandable) resentment over the way the EU has developed recently will make any result very tight imo.

I hope the UK votes to stay in and resolves to really lead the EU and help improve it. Unfortunately, I think the latter is impossible. The EU is going in the direction of a closer and closer union. The UK won't be a part of that imo. It will either leave eventually or awkwardly stand aside while the other countries integrate further (as has happened with the Euro).

Irish economic interests, the situation in Northern Ireland (and the potential trouble a Brexit might cause there) and my support of the EU and belief that it is better with the UK in it means I really hope it stays in but I have no idea how they'll vote.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Clegg would be an ideal front-man for the campaign if he wasn't such a toxic brand.

Could say the same thing about Hitler, if he wasn't dead of course.

 

[Bury Red]

Could say the same thing about Hitler, if he wasn't dead of course.

I'm not sure, with the current state of British politics I'd reckon Hitler would poll higher in the UK than Cleggy, even in his dead state.

 

[Jippy]

Could get messy if the stay in campaign focuses on the economy while the no lot drag it down to a straight immigration argument.

Dodgy that you can go to jail for nine months and not lose you MEP seat.
May 15, 2015

MOTE: JAIL SENTENCE BECKONS FOR THE BENT UKIP MEP
ALTON A former Ukip MEP who plundered almost £500,000 from the public purse by bending the rules 'slightly in my favour from time to time' is facing jail today (fri). Ashley Mote, 79, was previously jailed for nine months at Portsmouth Crown Court after being found guilty of a £65,000 benefit fraud following a four-week trial in 2007. The scandal-hit scrounger was kicked out of Nigel Farage's party but kept his parliamentary seat as only convicts handed 12 months or more are disqualified from the European Parliament. Benefit cheat Mote went on to pocket hundreds of thousands of pounds in Parliamentary Assistance Allowance, said to be for political research and legal and constitutional advice.

- See more at: http://www.courtnewsuk.co.uk/newsgallery/#sthash.PEBA18p2.dpuf

 

[rcoobc]

£50Bn/year off GDP they reckon.

But how much would they save!?!

Dont we give £100bn a year to the EU?

No we dont

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

National sovereignty and liberty for the people vs greed and an insidious political organisation. Trade and economic ties, yes; attempts at mastery from Brussels or Berlin, no.

Well, that's the narrative i'd like to see adopted anyway.

The way i've heard it described, some of the northern European countires wish the UK to remain for its economic agenda, whilst Poland and the eastern states appreciate our foreign policy and stance toward Russia. Britain lacks the necessary support amongst the larger nations to drive forward those policies however, so...

 

[peterstorey]

But how much would they save!?!

Dont we give £100bn a year to the EU?

No we dont

That's supposed to be the net.

 

[711]

National sovereignty and liberty for the people vs greed and an insidious political organisation. Trade and economic ties, yes; attempts at mastery from Brussels or Berlin, no.

Well, that's the narrative i'd like to see adopted anyway.

The way i've heard it described, some of the northern European countires wish the UK to remain for its economic agenda, whilst Poland and the eastern states appreciate our foreign policy and stance toward Russia. Britain lacks the necessary support amongst the larger nations to drive forward those policies however, so...

Lacks necessary support? You could say that. The last time Cameron put any great effort into getting his own way he lost 26:2.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/27/david-cameron-loses-jean-claude-juncker-vote-eu

Every chance of success in the coming re-negotiation then.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Can't make my mind up which way to vote on this. Some months its stay in some months its leave. I don't normally dither on issues but there is nothing really selling the EU to me at the moment. I can't think of anything it does well and as an economic zone its been a disaster for growth.

 

[Baxter]

Don't know why anyone would want out personally.

 

[sun_tzu]

You'd be a brave man to put money on that. Every poll I've seen has either favoured the 'Leave EU' side or had a tiny lead for the 'Stay' side.

I.

The last you gov polls not only showed a lead for the stay vote but by the biggest margin in the 10 years they have been conducting the poll
Also bookies odds tend to give a clue and on oddschecker yesterday it was 1/10 odds on to stay
I don't think it would be 80% but given the odds and polls it certainly favours the stay campaign at the moment

 

[sun_tzu]

No eu nationals living in the UK can vote
UK citizens living abroad (for less than 15 years) can vote
16 and 17 year old can't...
Does this change things at all

 

[Stookie]

It's interesting that before Cameron was voted in and the possibility of a referendum, there were no deals to be offered from the EU regarding Britains place in it. Now that he is in and a referendum is on the cards (and with it the possibility of leaving), all of a sudden there might be possible deals on the table. Britain is one of the biggest contributors towards the EU and it would be a disaster for them if we left. Plus it could start a worrying trend with some other countries.