Bloody hell how boring is that
it's not so much the difficulty of the tie, more so how painfully dull it is to get a PL side when there's literally so many other possibilities.FA Cup 2021/22 | Quarter Finals (March 19-20)
- Thread starter Samid
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it's not so much the difficulty of the tie, more so how painfully dull it is to get a PL side when there's literally so many other possibilities.This coming from someone who has Chesterfield at home, talk about difference in levels of opposition
In comparison to that list above the third round we've had it better for sure. But we haven't had anything below Championship from round 4 onwards for many years (compared to you lot who have had such five times in six years going by that list), ironically the last time we did we lost.
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Yeah that was 2012, we won 3-2 at The Etihad in the third round, however lost 2-1 at Anfield in the fourth round. I was at the scousers game ugh bad day.
Treble year was Boro, Liverpool, Fulham, Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle… 5 PL sides, all ended top.13 of that seasons league.
We never used to give a feck. We won’t let this slip….
That used to happen all the time on PES 5. I'm sure it was a bug
I know Arsenal are shite now but that’s no reason not to bold them.Third rounds only
2014: Swansea City (H) (Premier League)
2015: Yeovil Town (A) (League One)
2016: Sheffield United (H) (League One)
2017: Reading (H) (Championship)
2018: Derby County (H) (Championship)
2019: Reading (H) (Championship)
2020: Wolves (A) (Premier League)
2021: Watford (H) (Championship)
Fourth Rounds only:
2014: Didn't Qualify
2015: Cambridge United (A) (League Two)
2016: Derby County (A) (Championship
2017: Wigan Athletic (H) (Championship)
2018: Yeovil Town (A) (League Two)
2019: Arsenal (A) (Premier League)
2020: Tranmere Rovers (A) (League One)
2021: Liverpool (H) (Premier League)
Fifth Rounds Only:
2014: Didn't Qualify
2015: Preston North End (A) (League One)
2016: Shrewsbury Town (A) (League One)
2017: Blackburn Rovers (A) (Championship)
2018: Huddersfield (A) (Premier League)
2019: Chelsea (A) (Premier League)
2020: Derby County (A) (Championship)
2021: West Ham (H) (Premier League)
Y'all are exaggerating.
FA Cup 3rd round draws since 2005:
Chelsea:
2006: Huddersfield (H)
2007: Macclesfield (H)
2008: QPR (H)
2009: Southend (H)
2010: Watford (H)
2011: Ipswich (H)
2012: Portsmouth (H)
2013: Southampton (PL) (A)
2014: Derby (A)
2015: Watford (H)
2016: Scunthorpe (H)
2017: Peterborough (H)
2018: Norwich (H)
2019: Forest (H)
2020: Forest (H)
2021: Morecambe (H)
2022: Chesterfield (H)
Simply mental.
Compare that with United:
2006: Burton Albion (A)
2007: Villa (PL) (H)
2008: Villa (PL) (A)
2009: Southampton (A)
2010: Leeds (H)
2011: Liverpool (PL) (H)
2012: Man City (PL) (A)
2013: West Ham (PL) (A)
2014: Swansea (PL) (H)
2015: Yeovil (A)
2016: Sheffield United (H)
2017: Reading (H)
2018: Derby (H)
2019: Reading (H)
2020: Wolves (PL) (A)
2021: Watford (H)
2022: Villa (PL) (H)
Chelsea:
2006: Huddersfield (H)
2007: Macclesfield (H)
2008: QPR (H)
2009: Southend (H)
2010: Watford (H)
2011: Ipswich (H)
2012: Portsmouth (H)
2013: Southampton (PL) (A)
2014: Derby (A)
2015: Watford (H)
2016: Scunthorpe (H)
2017: Peterborough (H)
2018: Norwich (H)
2019: Forest (H)
2020: Forest (H)
2021: Morecambe (H)
2022: Chesterfield (H)
Simply mental.
Compare that with United:
2006: Burton Albion (A)
2007: Villa (PL) (H)
2008: Villa (PL) (A)
2009: Southampton (A)
2010: Leeds (H)
2011: Liverpool (PL) (H)
2012: Man City (PL) (A)
2013: West Ham (PL) (A)
2014: Swansea (PL) (H)
2015: Yeovil (A)
2016: Sheffield United (H)
2017: Reading (H)
2018: Derby (H)
2019: Reading (H)
2020: Wolves (PL) (A)
2021: Watford (H)
2022: Villa (PL) (H)
It's just fecking boring.
PL sides 99% of the time and then either Reading or Derby.
That's our entire FA cup draws for about 20 years.
PL sides 99% of the time and then either Reading or Derby.
That's our entire FA cup draws for about 20 years.
Only 3 all PL ties, of course ours is one of them while City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal ALL get lower league sides where their academy players can get first team minutes without fear of elimination
I mean these things aren't really rigged are they, none of us really believe that, just completely shite the draws we repeatedly seem to get.
I totally get peoples frustration, same here.
I totally get peoples frustration, same here.
That’s absurd.
There's coincidences and then there's this.
Can't complain too much about Villa (h) though, at least it's an interesting tie.
I'd say it's the opposite of interesting.
Another fecking PL side. We play Villa twice a year anyway. Let's have someone new or different.
Rather get Villa at home than a banana skin lower league side to be honest.
I presume you're not a season ticket holder then
Sick of Chelsea
this is getting ridiculous nowFantastic draw for my home town club. Shit draw for United
Usually I'd be like "ugh Villa" but we really have to win this game. I cannot tolerate the prospect of Gerrard knocking us out of any tournament. Sickening stuff.
We get a very tricky draw at home to a team who is currently in form and top of their league. I think we can all agree that the myth Chelsea get easy 3rd round draws is exactly that, a myth.
What do we learn from beating a lower league side at home though?
We’ve got the hardest draw of the big teams but don’t deserve to win the thing if we can’t beat Villa at home.
I was at the Villa game earlier this season and their fans really were very loud outside the stadium after the late winner. Would be nice to properly smash them
That fecking draw is a crappy one for both teams, both will rest players for it. I think we got them in league few days later. At home is massive .
Early rounds of FA cup should be big teams traveling away to lower league sides so that they can get some attendance boost.
Ugh did Woodward forget to pay the FA to have our ball warmed for a minnow like all the other big teams have seemingly done?! 
Ole gone and United continue to get tricky cup ties. Was too much to ask to get a draw like Chelsea, Liverpool and City got?
Villa are a good team so not a great draw but it's at Old Trafford and with the players we got we should be beating them.
Gut feeling is that our 'PL team again ffs' thing isn't that big of a statistical blip but that Chelsea's 'oh, will you look at that, cannon-fodder again, shucks what a coincidence' is just enough out of range of 'random' to maybe raise an eyebrow.
Actually a stats person with a high end computer (and maybe access to their institution's hardware) and some programming knowledge should be able to do a hundred thousand simulations or so (in the name of science) and figure this out.
Basically you run enough random simulations and see the percentage of times where any team gets such-and-such a run ('PL teams over X% of the time' or 'cannon fodder over Y% of the time') and then compare it to actual data.
You haven't really FMed if you haven't done the Tru-Quadruple.
FA cup third round, League cup semi first leg, PL match, League cup semi second leg, all against the same club.
Below is since 00-01 season till present day. That's 22 seasons worth of data.
| Club | Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round | % Of Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2 | 9.09% |
| Liverpool | 7 | 31.82% |
| United | 10 | 45.45% |
We never get a straightforward draw 
Oh dear, I wonder if 'Slippy G' will take it easy on Utd and rest some players to focus on league positions? Or will good ol' 'Slippy' put rockets 'up the Villa' players to avenge those slippy songs and memes for the last many years?
Hmmm, yeah. I wonder.
Hmmm, yeah. I wonder.
Spend 1 minute on Chelsea since 2005. 1 PL team in 17 seasons is 2% and 15-2 home-away is 1/1000. So if you simulate it 100.000 times then it is only couple of times they get easier draw.
Have you seen us at all in the past 8 years since fergie retired??
Chelsea will need the performance of a lifetime to progress
I thought SAF had the FA in his back pocketBelow is since 00-01 season till present day. That's 22 seasons worth of data.
Club Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round % Of Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round Chelsea 2 9.09% Liverpool 7 31.82% United 10 45.45%
.Semi-holy crap. I didn't know that home-away was part of the draw: I thought that matches just took place at the 'larger' of the two clubs so that the smaller team was ensured a bigger payday/reward for making it that far.
But the home-away thing aside, wouldn't one have to take several arbitrary 'portion sizes' of consecutive draws and compare the 'PL-team yield proportion' of each 'random' portion to establish the number of times a team could go on such a run within the 100,000 (or whatever) times. AKA simple extrapolation might ultimately prove correct but also could prove to be a statistical fluke if simulated enough times. AKA out of 100,000 times if teams get any arbitrary '2%' result (since there can be many different '2%' results in X% of the time' and then you measure the deviation.
For example, a while back the NFL Patriots were accused of manipulating coin tosses (few people actually believed it was seriously true) because they won like 75% of them at one point or they had a ridiculous winning streak, I can't remember which. And then some college stats super whiz kids did the analysis and it showed that a 75% win run could happen around 19% of the time, which wasn't too crazy. (totally made the 19% number up, but basically it was enough that proved it was possible)
But yes, again, gut feeling says Chelsea's draws would be deviant enough that serious stats people would go 'yes, that's enough of a deviation to be suspicious'.
Too lazy to think about it more. Googled the Pats thing, they were 19/25 on coin tosses (0,7%), maybe the guy simulated how often it happens to 1 of the 32 teams in NFL instead of just Pats.
76%. I tracked down the story. In the below book in chapter five "The Genius at the Royal Mint". They simulated ten seasons worth of games 100,000 times, basically doing the above method and looking for how often an 'incident' of that size happened. Which apparently was a surprising 23% of the time. AKA over the entire system, heads tails evens out to 50/50, but clumps of runs can happen in such 'high' percentages. I guess it's sort of intuitive... if you sum up the possible outcomes and 50/50 prevails, then if you go on a 75%-ish win streak a quarter of the time, you'll go on a 75% losing streak another quarter of the time.
Thinking about it further, if a run like Chelsea's happened, it'd be counterbalanced by another team or teams going on a run of 'opposite' character, AKA drawing stronger opponents (since Chelsea removed a weaker one each time)
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/39328092-aiq