FA Cup 2021/22 | Quarter Finals (March 19-20)

VivaRonaldo85

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Typical. Never in a million years did I feel we would get someone like Boreham Wood away. It hardly ever happens with us.

A tough draw that will need a proper XI to get the job done. In a weird way I’d have felt more confident if it was at villa park.

Don’t get me started on Chelsea’s draw yet again. Remarkable luck of draw
 

Winrar

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Chelsea getting a low league team while we draw a prem team in round 3 is just like clockwork.

I swear these draws are rigged against us somehow. :lol: There has to be some kind of a script written for this scenario every season.
 

massi83

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76%. I tracked down the story. In the below book in chapter five "The Genius at the Royal Mint". They simulated ten seasons worth of games 100,000 times, basically doing the above method and looking for how often an 'incident' of that size happened. Which apparently was a surprising 23% of the time. AKA over the entire system, heads tails evens out to 50/50, but clumps of runs can happen in such 'high' percentages. I guess it's sort of intuitive... if you sum up the possible outcomes and 50/50 prevails, then if you go on a 75%-ish win streak a quarter of the time, you'll go on a 75% losing streak another quarter of the time.

Thinking about it further, if a run like Chelsea's happened, it'd be counterbalanced by another team or teams going on a run of 'opposite' character, AKA drawing stronger opponents (since Chelsea removed a weaker one each time)

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/39328092-aiq
Yes, I know 19/25 is 76% :lol: The 0,7% was how often that, or more, is likely to happen. Well, 10 seasons of games (160) is totally different question than 25 games. I think you are making it harder than is needed or you are just talking about a different thing than I am, which is fine.
 

Sparky_Hughes

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Bunch of ninnies getting all upset at a home tie to Aston Villa.

You're Manchester United, act like it you cowards!
Exactly, it's villa ffs, and wreck it Ralph will school that skip licking slum dwelling rat eating phil Collins shagging vermin 6 ways from Sunday. Ollie what ever his name is vs SIIIIUUUUUU. No trouble.
 

hungrywing

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Yes, I know 19/25 is 76% :lol: The 0,7% was how often that, or more, is likely to happen. Well, 10 seasons of games (160) is totally different question than 25 games. I think you are making it harder than is needed or you are just talking about a different thing than I am, which is fine.
I agree you might be talking about something else and that I might be just overcomplicating things from the perspective of someone who knows this stuff. Is the 0.7% figure for the coin toss thing? It's so far from their (and the intuitive) figure of around 25% (12.5/25, 25/50, 4/8 etc is what one would expect to see at any arbitrary grouping and 6.5/25 - the deviation from 50/50 - is roughly 23%, their 'final result')
 

massi83

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I agree you might be talking about something else and that I might be just overcomplicating things from the perspective of someone who knows this stuff. Is the 0.7% figure for the coin toss thing? It's so far from their (and the intuitive) figure of around 25% (12.5/25, 25/50, 4/8 etc is what one would expect to see at any arbitrary grouping and 6.5/25 - the deviation from 50/50 - is roughly 23%, their 'final result')
Yes, the 0,7% is just the sum of probabilities of Pats winning 19 or more of the coin tosses. Exactly 19 for example would just be 0,5^25*177100=0,5%. The 177100 is different combinations of 19 wins and 6 losses C(25,19). And you will just do the same for 20 wins until 25 wins and take the sum. So this is the probability of getting that result in the next 25 games. This doesn't need to be simulated. But if one wants to look at what is the probability of that happening to Pats in a 10 year span or that happening in any 25 game period in the whole NFL to any 1 team then that probably has to be simulated like in your book.
 

hungrywing

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Yes, the 0,7% is just the sum of probabilities of Pats winning 19 or more of the coin tosses. Exactly 19 for example would just be 0,5^25*177100=0,5%. The 177100 is different combinations of 19 wins and 6 losses C(25,19). And you will just do the same for 20 wins until 25 wins and take the sum. So this is the probability of getting that result in the next 25 games. This doesn't need to be simulated. But if one wants to look at what is the probability of that happening to Pats in a 10 year span or that happening in any 25 game period in the whole NFL to any 1 team then that probably has to be simulated like in your book.
Yes. Thank you.

So to build on the above, the people in the book took a '25 toss-long window' and moved it along the sequence of 176 games (eleven seasons) and simmed 100,000 seasons for a total of 17.6 million games (tosses) and counted the number of instances where they saw at least 19 heads in that 25 toss window.

And I'm confused now, because they found that you get 19/25 (or above) around 23% of the time.

So now I'm wondering where the 0.7% fits in. (I understand the calculation that you provided of getting exactly 19)
 

Jeppers7

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Below is since 00-01 season till present day. That's 22 seasons worth of data. :lol:

ClubPrem Teams Faced in 3rd Round% Of Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round
Chelsea29.09%
Liverpool731.82%
United1045.45%
64 teams in the draw…..28% of them being premier league teams. To have drew double the percentage over 22 draws seems like a huge anomaly
 

GuybrushThreepwood

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From the perspective of a Blackburn fan, I always hope we draw a team in a different division in the 3rd round, whether they are in the Premier League, League One, League Two etc.. for the novelty factor and so that I get to see us play someone different.

The worst possible scenario is being drawn away to another Championship club, as that's just boring. I'd honestly much rather see us get absolutely hammered by City, United, Liverpool, Chelsea etc. than lose 2-1 away to Birmingham who we'll already play twice in the league or something like that.

As it is, a pretty short trip away to a League One team Wigan is interesting enough for me.
 

Noodle

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Chelsea’s run of lower league draws in this competition is staggering.
It's not though is it?

In the last two seasons we've had Forest, Hull, Liverpool, Leicester, Man Utd, Arsenal, Morecambe, Luton, Barnsley, Man City and Leicester again...

That's 6/11 PL sides 4 of which are in the big 6. Only once have we faced someone below the championship

EDIT (our 3rd round draw is historically favourable i agree but our overall draws in this competition are no different to anyone else).
 

lysglimt

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Below is since 00-01 season till present day. That's 22 seasons worth of data. :lol:

ClubPrem Teams Faced in 3rd Round% Of Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round
Chelsea29.09%
Liverpool731.82%
United1045.45%
Yes and there were 63 other teams teams in the draw - 19 P.L teams - so statistically a P.L team should have a percentage of 19/63 or 30% P.L opponents. So Liverpool are exactly where they should be - we have been very unlucky - and Chelsea at 9% - now that almost shouldn't be possible.
 

Bestietom

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Chelsea getting a low league team while we draw a prem team in round 3 is just like clockwork.

I swear these draws are rigged against us somehow. :lol: There has to be some kind of a script written for this scenario every season.
If we are going to win FA cup we must beat whoever we meet.
 

Bertie Wooster

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It's not though is it?

In the last two seasons we've had Forest, Hull, Liverpool, Leicester, Man Utd, Arsenal, Morecambe, Luton, Barnsley, Man City and Leicester again...

That's 6/11 PL sides 4 of which are in the big 6. Only once have we faced someone below the championship

EDIT (our 3rd round draw is historically favourable i agree but our overall draws in this competition are no different to anyone else).
You draw the 'big teams' in the later rounds, when that's almost avoidable as they're mostly the ones left from the QF onwards.

2 years ago, the 3rd and 4th round draws were Notts Forest and Hull and only from the 5th round on did you play tough opposition (which, fair enough, was every round from them on).

Last season, it was only from the SF, with the 3rd round to QF being against Morecambe, Luton, Barnsley and Sheffield United. That's a very favourable route to the SF. And this year starts off with a home match against a non league club!

The comments about draws are more comparable in the 3rd and 4th rounds when you can range from drawing the top clubs in the PL if you're very unlucky down to a non league club if you're very lucky. Pointing to the fact you still have to beat tough opposition in the later rounds if you want to win the cup isn't the issue. It's the comparable routes to those later rounds that's being discussed.
 
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Dancfc

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Don’t get me started on Chelsea’s draw yet again. Remarkable luck of draw
Tbf I'd take City away in R3 every season if the trade off is more often than not getting the likes of Olympiakos and Sevilla in the RO16 UCL instead of Parisx2, Barca and Atletico.
 

RedSky

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Just to continue to laugh at our bad luck compared to Chelseas good fortune. I've got our and Chelseas 4th round fixtures done now. Again this goes all the way back to 00-01 season. I'm just doing Liverpools, will edit them in.
Club​
Games​
Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round​
% Of Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round​
Chelsea​
22​
2​
9.09%​
Tottenham​
22​
6​
27.27%​
Liverpool​
22​
7​
31.82%​
City​
22​
7​
31.82%​
Arsenal​
22​
8​
36.36%​
United​
22​
10​
45.45%​


Club​
Games​
Prem Teams Faced in 4th Round​
% Of Prem Teams Faced in 4th Round​
Chelsea​
21​
6​
28.57%​
City17847.06%
Tottenham​
18​
9​
50.00%​
Arsenal​
20​
11​
55.00%​
Liverpool​
16​
9​
56.25%​
United​
19​
11​
57.89%​

If you combine those results, United have drawn 21 Premier League teams in 41 games. Chelsea have drawn 8 Premier League teams in 43 games.
 
Last edited:

Dancfc

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Just to continue to laugh at our bad luck compared to Chelseas good fortune. I've got our and Chelseas 4th round fixtures done now. Again this goes all the way back to 00-01 season. I'm just doing Liverpools, will edit them in.
Club​
Games​
Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round​
% Of Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round​
Chelsea​
22​
2​
9.09%​
Liverpool​
22​
7​
31.82%​
United​
22​
10​
45.45%​

Club​
Games​
Prem Teams Faced in 4th Round​
% Of Prem Teams Faced in 4th Round​
Chelsea​
21​
6​
28.57%​
Liverpool​
16​
9​
56.25%​
United​
19​
11​
57.89%​

If you combine those results, United have drawn 21 Premier League teams in 41 games. Chelsea have drawn 8 Premier League teams in 43 games.
Ill Swap ya, we get the harder cup ties in exchange for the likes of Olympiakos and Sevilla in the UCL RO16 draws (while you get Parisx2, Barca, Leti etc).
 

Noodle

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Just to continue to laugh at our bad luck compared to Chelseas good fortune. I've got our and Chelseas 4th round fixtures done now. Again this goes all the way back to 00-01 season. I'm just doing Liverpools, will edit them in.
Club​
Games​
Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round​
% Of Prem Teams Faced in 3rd Round​
Chelsea​
22​
2​
9.09%​
Liverpool​
22​
7​
31.82%​
United​
22​
10​
45.45%​

Club​
Games​
Prem Teams Faced in 4th Round​
% Of Prem Teams Faced in 4th Round​
Chelsea​
21​
6​
28.57%​
Liverpool​
16​
9​
56.25%​
United​
19​
11​
57.89%​

If you combine those results, United have drawn 21 Premier League teams in 41 games. Chelsea have drawn 8 Premier League teams in 43 games.
That is pretty crazy to be honest, i'd be fascinated to see the 5th round too for balance, plus City, Arsenal and Spurs in there
 

RedSky

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That is pretty crazy to be honest, i'd be fascinated to see the 5th round too for balance, plus City, Arsenal and Spurs in there
Aye, it does take a pretty long time to go through but i'll give it a go. By the 5th round the odds of facing a PL team is extremely high so it'd be pretty redundant I think.
 

RedSky

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That is pretty crazy to be honest, i'd be fascinated to see the 5th round too for balance, plus City, Arsenal and Spurs in there
Updated the above table with all 6 clubs in the previous post. Below is a combined table with 3rd and 4th round added together.

Club​
3rd/4th Round Games​
3rd/4th Round PL Teams Faced​
% of PL Teams Faced​
Chelsea​
43​
8​
18.60%​
Tottenham​
40​
15​
37.50%​
City​
39​
15​
38.46%​
Liverpool​
38​
16​
42.11%​
Arsenal​
42​
19​
45.24%​
United​
41​
21​
51.22%​

 

Djemba-Djemba

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Ill Swap ya, we get the harder cup ties in exchange for the likes of Olympiakos and Sevilla in the UCL RO16 draws (while you get Parisx2, Barca, Leti etc).
Well 2 of our last 4 RO16 draws have been Real Madrid and PSG so don't try and act like we get equal luck with those draws as you do in the FA Cup.

You've also had Olympiakos yourselves in the round of 16 draw you know?
 
Last edited:

Redlyn

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Tbf I'd take City away in R3 every season if the trade off is more often than not getting the likes of Olympiakos and Sevilla in the RO16 UCL instead of Parisx2, Barca and Atletico.
It's clear that chelsea has massively favourable FA Cup R3 and R4. So lets talk about another competition instead.
 

Rex Banner

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/59594346

BBC
Hull City v Everton
Manchester United v Aston Villa

ITV
Millwall v Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Swindon Town v Manchester City
West Ham v Leeds
Some very poor choices there imo. Actually baffled at Hull/Everton being picked. Everton are on TV every other week ffs

As a United fan, I'm obviously glad we're on TV but United/Villa and West Ham/Leeds are playing again in the PL the week after and looks like they're both gonna be on TV. There's four non-league sides in the 3rd round and not one of them is on TV. Never wanna hear about the magic of the cup again.
 

Kasper

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Should've removed every replay/two-legged tie in the domestic cups from the beginning of the season given the schedule. Either way, easiest solution to begin with but I doubt it'll be enough with all the postponements looming.
 

IRN-BRUno

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Wouldn't fixtures like Kidderminster - Reading and Yeovil - Bournemouth be more interesting than West Ham - Leeds and Hull - Everton?
 

Withnail

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Updated the above table with all 6 clubs in the previous post. Below is a combined table with 3rd and 4th round added together.

Club​
3rd/4th Round Games​
3rd/4th Round PL Teams Faced​
% of PL Teams Faced​
Chelsea​
43​
8​
18.60%​
Tottenham​
40​
15​
37.50%​
City​
39​
15​
38.46%​
Liverpool​
38​
16​
42.11%​
Arsenal​
42​
19​
45.24%​
United​
41​
21​
51.22%​

United getting absolutely shafted here. Who said random draws were fair?