That's an annoyingly tough run now with Brighton.
FA Cup Quarter Finals - SF: Brighton vs United
- Thread starter top1whoisman
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Again, we get the toughest draw.
If we want to win the FA Cup, we'll have to beat City.
If we want to win the FA Cup, we'll have to beat City.
To be fair we’ve had reasonable draws to date in the FA Cup and all at home. Hopefully players get their act together for Wembley.
I'd say Sheff Utd got the toughest draw. City is the best team left in the cup surely?
Jesus these sour grapes from Silva are almost surreal.
No, City get the easy draw, Sheffield are never getting to the final in any scenario.
Would rather of had City or Sheffield than Brighton, but is what it is!
Manchester derby in the final, the football gods wanted it.
Mitoma vs AWB will be an interesting battle
the domestic draws so far have been ridiculously tame.
Villa-Burnley-Charlton-Southampton-Newcastle
Everton-Reading-West Ham-Fulham
If they do beat Brighton and City, it will be a memorable run and trophy. Otherwise it's similar to the tame runs for some previous trophies...
LvG FA Cup: lower league teams, West Ham, Everton, Palace
Jose Europa League: (had to google for all of them) - Saint Ettiene - Rostov - Anderlecht - Celta Vigo - Ajax.
I was really hoping they'd win the 2021 Europa League - Sociedad, Milan, Roma, Villareal looks like a knock-off CL run, rather than random teams from random European leagues.
I guess most people won't agree with this, but for me the 2-leg win over Barca was a more memorable and bigger achievement than the league cup.
Just commented in the post match Fulham thread. It's going to be tough as it's going to be 6th game in 21 days with it also being right after a flight back from Spain on Thursday. But, we may also have some key players back - Casemiro, Varane and Eriksen - and who knows maybe Martial.
But, this is a big moment for Brighton, at Wembley and think like Newcastle aren't accustomed to it. In the past few years I would have put us in the same boat, but, with this manager and team, feel we are better suited to manage the occasion.
A lot though will ride on the proceeding 5 games, drop points and get bogged down in a lot tighter race for the top 4 or not make it to the semis of Europa, will have a mental impact on us.
But, this is a big moment for Brighton, at Wembley and think like Newcastle aren't accustomed to it. In the past few years I would have put us in the same boat, but, with this manager and team, feel we are better suited to manage the occasion.
A lot though will ride on the proceeding 5 games, drop points and get bogged down in a lot tighter race for the top 4 or not make it to the semis of Europa, will have a mental impact on us.
Surely we will play Brighton on Sunday and not Saturday. Right?
Other than in Carabao Cup, we haven't had easy draws under ten Hag so far. Everton, West Ham, Fulham and Brighton aren't easy draws, even if first 3 were at Old Trafford.
April will be even tougher now but it is what it is.
April will be even tougher now but it is what it is.
To be fair, City have had much more difficult draws than us in all competitions. Had to play Liverpool in the EFL Cup and then faced Chelsea and Arsenal in the FA Cup. Will be facing Bayern Munich in the CL as well, and are also in the much tougher path to the eventual final.
I suppose we could have had better luck in the draws for the Europa League knockout stages, but our draws for the domestic cups have been extremely favourable.
I'd say we had favourable draws in Carabao Cup. Fa Cup - only in the way we played all the games at Old Trafford. Europa - not great, got Sevilla (after Barca and Betis) and Juve side of the draw if we beat Sevilla.
I agree about City's draws but they do have bigger squad and more quality.
These feckers are going to cook us at Wembley.
That’s the spirit!
Ah well, they have a better chance of beating City in the final anyway.
Finally some good news for United.
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Well done to Man United's womens team today.
Going to be a very tough game next weekend, no idea what kind of defence we'll be able to put out unless one of Varane or Shaw are back
Ok I won’t bother going so , anyone want my ticket ?
I imagine McTominay will drop to centre back but he wasn’t even in the squad today. Going to be a tough one.
Casemiro even more likely as he's already done it this season?
Yeh Sunday.
That would leave our midfield weaker so would prefer him there really.
So just checked the odds on the game with one bookmaker. They got Brighton as favourites for the match but as outright winners of the Cup we are second favourites to City. Am I missing something?
United lost their one match vs. Brighton and split the two matches vs. City. Brighton has lost 1 match vs. City. This (limited) data suggests that Brighton are more likely to win against United, but less likely to beat City than United are. Bookmakers/professional gamblers certainly have more complicated probability models than this, but for simplicity's sake let's say this data is heavily weighted compared to everything else.
Assuming City wins their semi final match, it's possible that the difference between United's probability of beating City and Brighton's outweighs Brighton's probability of beating United in their respective FA cup winning probabilities. For example, assuming City win in their semi final match (just picking numbers to illustrate how this would work):
Brighton's probability of winning FA cup = (prob. of win against United)*(prob. of win against City) = (.6)*(.25) = .15
United's probability of winning FA cup = (prob. of win against Brighton)*(prob. of win against City) = (.4)*(.5) = .2
Thank you for this
Come on The Blades, we are all behind you today
I have absolutely no doubt we are getting battered tomorrow. I’ll take a respectable 0-1 defeat and move on.
I have less than zero desire to watch the City semi, it’s such a forgone conclusion.
If there was ever a match I would bet my house on it would be this one. A minimum 3-0 victory.
