Fantasy Premier League 25/26

Chipper said:
Got a little working model of trying to predict DC points, not sure it's worth proceeding or if it's accurate.

All very basic stuff.

So Saliba would have earned 12 DC points last season, or 0.37 per 90.

Feeding in his fixtures and last season's data I got this for the first 7 gameweeks as predictions (DC1-DC7 columns):
428Svil.png


It's 2.53 over the first 7 weeks at 0.36 per 90. There's variations in there, and some games are better prospects than others but as that's so close to his average anyway I'm thinking I might have just stuck with that.

Maybe that's just the way Arsenal's fixtures are though. Could look more worth it for other teams/players. His best prospect not surprisingly in GW3 (DC3) vs Liverpool.
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The amount of work you are putting into this is seriously impressive! I am starting to understand why I did terribly last year :lol:
 
Maluco said:
The amount of work you are putting into this is seriously impressive! I am starting to understand why I did terribly last year :lol:
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I was just thinking earlier that I'm spending way too much time on this. :lol:

I do like numbers though, and have this habit of when something grips me that I become a bit obsessed with it and right now that's FPL.

Sometimes people say this as too much of a joke or a bit too lightly and when they do it can offend but I do wonder if I have a form of autism at times. Genuinely. Not just with this kind of thing but I recognise some of the other common traits in me at least on a level.

Either way this fun to me right now!
 
Chipper said:
I was just thinking earlier that I'm spending way too much time on this. :lol:

I do like numbers though, and have this habit of when something grips me that I become a bit obsessed with it and right now that's FPL.

Sometimes people say this as too much of a joke or a bit too lightly and when they do it can offend but I do wonder if I have a form of autism at times. Genuinely. Not just with this kind of thing but I recognise some of the other common traits in me at least on a level.

Either way this fun to me right now!
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My son has autism and often fixates on certain things for a period of time. It was only after watching him that I realized I do the same thing, so I can totally understand and I feel the same way!
 
Maluco said:
My son has autism and often fixates on certain things for a period of time. It was only after watching him that I realized I do the same thing, so I can totally understand and I feel the same way!
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Yes, that's definitely one of the common indicators as you'd know. Maybe I could investigate that one day but I'm reasonably happy with the way I am so I don't know!

Hope your son is doing well.
 
Chipper said:
Yes, that's definitely one of the common indicators as you'd know. Maybe I could investigate that one day but I'm reasonably happy with the way I am so I don't know!

Hope your son is doing well.
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Thanks mate, appreciate that!
 
Who follows Leeds? Who is first choice striker there? Piroe?

And can mods or someone stick this thread on main page like it was in the past?
 
Andycoleno9 said:
Who follows Leeds? Who is first choice striker there? Piroe?

And can mods or someone stick this thread on main page like it was in the past?
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Not exactly a Leeds follower but I'd expect so. They've signed Lukas Nmecha in that position on a free, don't think he'd take his place but can't be certain.

Decent things of expected of Piroe this season according to something I saw last night.


8.75 goals for the season, let's call it 9 not too bad for a promoted striker. It's all projected from betting odds and must be expected to start.

Long story time:

Was watching the guy who runs that twitter account last night, he started using betting markets as a way to predict FPL stuff after seeing Americans do it for their fantasy sports. He uses the Asian betting markets and some others which are about the best predictors of anything you could ever get. The volume of money is huge and the profit margins that bookies take out are much lower than elsewhere. All the truly big gamblers bet with these bookies including the Brighton and Brentford chairmen in the past which is how they made a lot of their money.

One of the very biggest ones is Pinnacle (mentioned recently on here by @ROFLUTION) and their odds are very renowned for being accurate. You can even pay to subscribe to apps that tell you when Pinnacle odds change so that you can bet at better odds with other bookies before they react and change change theirs because they really know their stuff.

So yeah, if the info from these kind of markets is showing Piroe is expected to do reasonably well I wouldn't implicitly doubt it.

That RobT bloke is actually launching a new product for FPL on Tuesday with a few others based on all that. It's called Solio Analytics. The first month is free apparently, and I'm curious about it all.

He was on here talking about it recently
 
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Chipper said:
Not exactly a Leeds follower but I'd expect so. They've signed Lukas Nmecha in that position on a free, don't think he'd take his place but can't be certain.

Decent things of expected of Piroe this season according to something I saw last night.


8.75 goals for the season, let's call it 9 not too bad for a promoted striker. It's all projected from betting odds and must be expected to start.

Long story time:

Was watching the guy who runs that twitter account last night, he started using betting markets as a way to predict FPL stuff after seeing Americans do it for their fantasy sports. He uses the Asian betting markets which are about the best predictors of anything you could ever get. The volume of money is huge and the profit margins that bookies take out are much lower than elsewhere. All the truly big gamblers bet with these Asian bookies including the Brighton and Brentford chairmen in the past which is how they made a lot of their money.

One of the very biggest ones is Pinnacle (mentioned recently on here by @ROFLUTION) and their odds are very renowned for being accurate. You can even pay to subscribe to apps that tell you when Pinnacle odds change so that you can bet at better odds with other bookies before they react and change change their's because they really know their stuff.

So yeah, if the info from these kind of markets is showing Piroe is expected to do reasonably well I wouldn't implicitly doubt it.

That RobT bloke is actually launching a new product for FPL on Tuesday with a few others based on all that. It's called Solio Analytics. The first month is free apoparently, and I'm curious about it all.

He was on here talking about it recently
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Nice! Will check that one out. FPLMate clearly also uses the same wisdom of the experts method in his weekly videos of who the top100 experts transfer in and out. In short, it’s just very hard to beat the average moves of the experts (even for the experts).

All in all wisdom of the crowd is a quite interesting subject. I used to dig really deep into betting models and markets and how to beat the bookies, but you simply can’t with most/all as they ban your account if you’re too profitable/clever.

In general in betting markets/stock markets you only win if you have a true edge over the “crowd”, hence more wisdom. So as more content with clever stats is created, a lot of that wisdom also gets baked into the market and that “edge” becomes mainstream making it harder to find an edge for all the experts who has scouted every stat out there. It’s the same principle for stocks.

In short the top10k becomes either for fantastic and super nerdt data analysts, super lucky guys and/or great strategists like Magnus Carlsen.

If Pinnacle has odds for xG /xA for players goals/assists overall in a season or similar stats, that would also be a pretty solid start and it would be interesting to pair that up with player prices to see where the value is.

Edit: one thing that really makes me not trust the projections mentioned in their stats however is Amad is only due to score 5.5 goals in a whole season. Can’t wrap my head around that, but it would explain his FPL price.
 
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Son leaving makes me think Kudus might get a lot of playing time at Spurs and worth looking at.
 
Harry Wilson seems popular right now with those jumping on pre-season form. He's been flying, and his underlying numbers last season were solid if we look at per 90s. 0.33 xG per 90, 0.09 xA for a 0.42 total expected goal involvement.

For a 5.5m player that's alright. Would think he's their first choice in his position.

He does face a lot of competition from more defensive minded mids at that price this season now we have points for that. Reminds me what was going in pre-season last year with Smith-Rowe who had his moments, particularly at the start, and Jacob Murphy who was flying last summer and ended up being good pick after a slow start at similar price points.

See my my boy Lewis-Potter played as a now out of position left midfielder/winger for Brentford today in their 1-0 friendly win over QPR. That's a huge part of the potential appeal. Didn't score or assist though, it was a Collins goal, Kayode assist.

Thiago started up front. Wissa very unsettled there and wants out.
 
Canuckred64 said:
Son leaving makes me think Kudus might get a lot of playing time at Spurs and worth looking at.
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Could well be. Really interested to see who plays where for them.

Kudus is versatile, but played more games on the right for West Ham than anywhere else, and Spurs signed him after being linked to Mbeumo who also plays on the right of course. Was thinking that it might be curtains for Brennan Johnson, but now it could well be him and Kudus on either side with Son going.

I like Johnson as a player, not really for FPL at the moment. He's just really good at getting into dangerous positions and piling on that xG. Question marks about how involved in games he is, moreso from last season than the season before but give this guy 3000+ minutes and he'll hit around 15xG. Then we have to see his finishing is like! Fine last season, horrendous in 23/24. If I was a coach/manager or fan of the team he played for I'd be happy enough with him purely for that.
 
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@Andycoleno9

Might have to start taking back what I said about Piroe. Nmecha started their friendly vs Villarreal today, just like he did when they played United. Piroe on as a half time sub in both games so they've split the playing time equally but with Nmecha starting it could indicate something I suppose.

Piroe scored, finished 1-1.

They have AC Milan next Saturday in their final pre-seasnon game, might want to see what happens in that one before leaping on Piroe.
 
Chipper said:
@Andycoleno9

Might have to start taking back what I said about Piroe. Nmecha started their friendly vs Villarreal today, just like he did when they played United. Piroe on as a half time sub in both games so they've split the playing time equally but with Nmecha starting it could indicate something I suppose.

Piroe scored, finished 1-1.

They have AC Milan next Saturday in their final pre-seasnon game, might want to see what happens in that one before leaping on Piroe.
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Literally, half an hour ago i convinced my friend to pick Piroe because "my experts from Redcafe said that he is nailed". :lol:

But....he is die hard Liverpool fan so feck him. :)
 
Andycoleno9 said:
They don't have a striker?
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I have no idea. You'd assume Chelsea wouldn't loan him to Sunderland without assurances that he'd get plenty of minutes. He'll be third on my bench anyway so I'm glad I can set and forget him whilst focusing on beefing up my midfield.
 
Andycoleno9 said:
They don't have a striker?
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They have Isidor who is currently out with a small knock so didn't take part in today's friendly. Mayenda can play there too although he primarily plays wide, he was up front today.

Today was too soon for Guiu.
 
Georginio Rutter to play up front for Brighton this season? This looks like a strong team they put out today vs. Southampton, perhaps close to their starting XI?


They also played a seperate 60-minute game. Welbeck was up top in that one.

Edit: Mind you, Welbeck scored 4 vs Wycombe recently and Rutter was wide in that one. Could be that Welbeck isn't seen as needing as many minutes right now.

Baleba absent with a knock, Minteh scored 2 today.
 
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Chipper said:
Georginio Rutter to play up front for Brighton this season? This looks like a strong team they put out today vs. Southampton, perhaps close to their starting XI?


They also played a seperate 60-minute game. Welbeck was up top in that one.

Edit: Mind you, Welbeck scored 4 vs Wycombe recently and Rutter was wide in that one. Could be that Welbeck isn't seen as needing as many minutes right now.

Baleba absent with a knock, Minteh scored 2 today.
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De Cuyper looks tempting
 
Nashville 2-2 Villa in the latest friendly.

Watkins and Malen scored. Malen shining bright in pre-season at a nice 5.5m pricepoint with 1 goal and 3 assists so far, but he did come on at half time to replace Watkins and was playing as a striker.

Remains to be seen if he's a starter on the right or Watkins' backup. In their previous friendly he was through the middle too, starting the game before being subbed off for Watkins at half time in a reverse of today. The one before that he was on the right, both on the pitch together.
 
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Canuckred64 said:
Son leaving makes me think Kudus might get a lot of playing time at Spurs and worth looking at.
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Maddison off with what looks like a bad injury in pre season today perhaps helps a little here too.

Kudus can play a bit as a 10 as well, and Kulusevski is still out. Not the kind of 10 that Frank normally uses, he likes ones that offer defensive workrate and it's why Sarr has been playing there a fair bit during pre-season and Norgaard was a hard worker at Brentford for him. Still, probably upgrades Kudus' minutes prospects a touch more still. Could go Kudus-Sarr-Johnson as the attacking midfield 3, or Tel/Richarlison-Kudus-Johnson if he doesn't want to play Sarr there in certain games.

Looking good for minutes right now I'd say.
 
Chipper said:
Nashville 2-2 Villa in the latest friendly.

Watkins and Malen scored. Malen shining bright in pre-season at a nice 5.5m pricepoint with 1 goal and 3 assists so far, but he did come on at half time to replace Watkins and was playing as a striker.

Remains to be seen if he's a starter on the right or Watkins' backup. In their previous friendly he was through the middle too, starting the game before being subbed off for Watkins at half time in a reverse of today. The one before that he was on the right, both on the pitch together.
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You watched the game? I have Watkins. He is one of those players who i have every year. But Rogers bugs me. Was he any good?
 
Andycoleno9 said:
You watched the game? I have Watkins. He is one of those players who i have every year. But Rogers bugs me. Was he any good?
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No mate, didn't watch. Just took a look at match reports and saw someone post Watkins goal on social media.

Quite liking Watkins at the moment as well.

A lot of things worked out nicely for Rogers last season. 8 goals from 6.24 xG, 11 fantasy assists from 5.24 xA. At his price it didn't didn't matter if his underlying numbers caught with him, he was very cheap and a great enbaler. Now that he's more expensive would hope those background numbers step up a little too. Semenyo, Kluivert, Sarr and Mitoma all a bit higher on those numbers from last season at the same 7m price or cheaper. Perhaps Rogers just has that midas touch though and he can repeat goals and assists without increasing those figures?

Penalties look a bit uncertain for Villa. Tielemans?
 
Andycoleno9 said:
De Cuyper looks tempting
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Yeah. But he's a big question mark.

Marc Guehi just registered defcon pts in Palaces last friendly. He also gets attacking returns and bonus. Ill take him over De Cuyper for now
 
What are your thoughts about Saka and Gyokeres? Especially Saka.
Going back and forth with them. I have Saka for now because my plan is premium midfield (Palmer, Saka, Salah, Rogers, Kudus) but that 10 mil on him feels like a waste.

If you go with 6.5 mil mid instead Saka then you can literally upgrade 3 positions. I hate having these 5.5 mil strikers. And one striker is keep calling me to pick him; don't laugh but 6,5 mil for Larsen seems like a bargain.
 
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Thoughts on this BB team? My plan is BB GW1, FH2 and WC3 or 4.

Sels-Verbruggen
Colwill-Mykolenko-Spence-VDV-Diouf
Palmer-Ndiaye-Salah-Gakpo-Kudus
Bowen-Fullkrug-Wood
 
First Draft.

Neto
Wan Bissaka Livramento Gvardiol Dorgu
Marmoush Salah Palmer
Gyökeres J.Pedro Etikike

Subs: Dubravka, Sambi, Miley, Araujo​
 
Andycoleno9 said:
What are your thoughts about Saka and Gyokeres? Especially Saka.
Going back and forth with them. I have Saka for now because my plan is premium midfield (Palmer, Saka, Salah, Rogers, Kudus) but that 10 mil on him feels like a waste.

If you go with 6.5 mil mid instead Saka then you can literally upgrade 3 positions. I hate having these 5.5 mil strikers. And one striker is keep calling me to pick him; don't laugh but 6,5 mil for Larsen seems like a bargain.
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The penalty question applicable to both of those two. Rumours going around that Saka may lose them, and Arteta was asked I think, giving an evasive answer as he does with everything. Could be either of them or even shared, Saka has given up a few here and there before hasn't he?

Gyokeres very difficult to assess simply because he's a new player to the league. Tentatively have him pencilled in using his Champions League numbers from last season as it's a higher standard the Portuguese League but it's a stab in the dark and he's a mystery. That's 0.44 non-penalty xG per 90, and similar to Havertz in the PL last season who was on 0.46. Nothing wrong with Havertz level of threat, it's not an insult - play 3000 minutes and you should get 15 goals from open play. If boosted by pens that can easily be 20+

Saka's relative goal tally went down last season, with his assist one going up. He was still brilliant to have pre-injury and I think a large part of the what looks to be a possible change was penalty-related too. He only took 1 last season compared to 23/24 when he took 6. Arsenal just weren't awarded many last year, only 2 all season.

Saka's underlying numbers from open play didn't change too much at least when it comes to goals - 23/24 was 0.33 non pen xg per 90 and last season was 0.31. His xA did jump up a notch from 0.32 to 0.40.

Can't really imagine a world where Saka is an outright bad pick - but those fixtures early season for Arsenal aren't the best. I think that taking a wait and see approach for both to an extent could be an idea. Gyokeres to see what he's like at this level and to hopefully find out who is on pens which impacts both of them. GW7 is when Arsenal's fixtures change for the better for a few weeks which just happens to be around the time when I see a lot of people using their first widlcard too. International break is just after GW7 and that's usually a popular time as well - so 7 or 8 for WC? Could leap on Arsenal players around then. The downside is that if either of them do get off to a flyer you're possibly behind at that point and trying to catch up.
 
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It really feels to me like Haaland is the play to go with, with those fixtures and his habit of starting the season like a monster.

The problem is the fear of that first fixture for Salah.

If you get past that, even with a modest return, I think you could be flying by GW 4, when you could FH to get him in and cover yourself.

That ownership though….if he turns up for Newcastle/Arsenal and City look terrible, you are screwed.

But it feels like the best chance to get ahead early, Salah has been poor so far this year, has new teammates etc…

…but the fear….
 
Maluco said:
It really feels to me like Haaland is the play to go with, with those fixtures and his habit of starting the season like a monster.

The problem is the fear of that first fixture for Salah.

If you get past that, even with a modest return, I think you could be flying by GW 4, when you could FH to get him in and cover yourself.

That ownership though….if he turns up for Newcastle/Arsenal and City look terrible, you are screwed.

But it feels like the best chance to get ahead early, Salah has been poor so far this year, has new teammates etc…

…but the fear….
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Hasn’t Salah scored in 6 of his 7 opening day games or something like that? And we get Bournemouth at home this time who are without Kepa, Huijsen, Kerkez and potentially Zabarnyi compared to last season.
 
RobinLFC said:
Hasn’t Salah scored in 6 of his 7 opening day games or something like that? And we get Bournemouth at home this time who are without Kepa, Huijsen, Kerkez and potentially Zabarnyi compared to last season.
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That’s the worry about that fixture, but away to Newcastle and home to Arsenal after that. Potentially not hauls and no guarantee in the new setup that he will be the one to get the goals. It could be Isak by the time Burnley rolls around.

As for Haaland. 10 goals in his first 5 games last season, something like that? 7 goals in his first three games?

If he starts anything like he did in the last few seasons and he is your captain, you could be flying.
 
Maluco said:
That’s the worry about that fixture, but away to Newcastle and home to Arsenal after that. Potentially not hauls and no guarantee in the new setup that he will be the one to get the goals. It could be Isak by the time Burnley rolls around.

As for Haaland. 10 goals in his first 5 games last season, something like that? 7 goals in his first three games?

If he starts anything like he did in the last few seasons and he is your captain, you could be flying.
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Yeah that's true, I just think (at the moment) that City will still be looking more like the second half of last season than those first few games, when the new season starts. Don't expect anything close to the same return from Haaland as that ridiculous run last year.

As for Salah, Newcastle's defense was quite average last year if I'm not mistaken and he loves a goal in a big game (think he equalized against Arsenal at the Emirates last season - the fixture at Anfield was when the league was already won).

Not because he's a Liverpool player, but I just can't justify to myself not starting the season with Salah. If he does a few silly things in those first 4-5 games, and I don't have him, I'd be up against it for the rest of the (fantasy) season if you look at his expected ownership.

Combination of Salah and Haaland seems to be less feasible this season. I think I'm going Wirtz-Palmer-Salah in midfield and hopefully Watkins and Isak up top.
 
RobinLFC said:
Yeah that's true, I just think (at the moment) that City will still be looking more like the second half of last season than those first few games, when the new season starts. Don't expect anything close to the same return from Haaland as that ridiculous run last year.

As for Salah, Newcastle's defense was quite average last year if I'm not mistaken and he loves a goal in a big game (think he equalized against Arsenal at the Emirates last season - the fixture at Anfield was when the league was already won).

Not because he's a Liverpool player, but I just can't justify to myself not starting the season with Salah. If he does a few silly things in those first 4-5 games, and I don't have him, I'd be up against it for the rest of the (fantasy) season if you look at his expected ownership.

Combination of Salah and Haaland seems to be less feasible this season. I think I'm going Wirtz-Palmer-Salah in midfield and hopefully Watkins and Isak up top.
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I think you can do Haaland - Salah and still have a decent team (even Wirtz), but Palmer is a no at that stage.

That might also be the way to go because I could easily see myself doing a Salah - Haaland - Haaland - Salah captaincy over the first 4, but can’t see myself putting it on Palmer, despite his potential for a big number.

It’s probably more practical to come down from either of them too, if it doesn’t work out.
 
Maluco said:
I think you can do Haaland - Salah and still have a decent team (even Wirtz), but Palmer is a no at that stage.

That might also be the way to go because I could easily see myself doing a Salah - Haaland - Haaland - Salah captaincy over the first 4, but can’t see myself putting it on Palmer, despite his potential for a big number.

It’s probably more practical to come down from either of them too, if it doesn’t work out.
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Hmm you might be right. I hadn't even thought of the possibility of going without Palmer up until now to be honest. Will need to look into that, cheers!
 
Maluco said:
It really feels to me like Haaland is the play to go with, with those fixtures and his habit of starting the season like a monster.

The problem is the fear of that first fixture for Salah.

If you get past that, even with a modest return, I think you could be flying by GW 4, when you could FH to get him in and cover yourself.

That ownership though….if he turns up for Newcastle/Arsenal and City look terrible, you are screwed.

But it feels like the best chance to get ahead early, Salah has been poor so far this year, has new teammates etc…

…but the fear….
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RobinLFC said:
Hasn’t Salah scored in 6 of his 7 opening day games or something like that? And we get Bournemouth at home this time who are without Kepa, Huijsen, Kerkez and potentially Zabarnyi compared to last season.
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Yeah but City played till first week of July. Other teams started their preseason in the first week of July. They could be slow starters plus they might get rotated due to them having a smaller preseason.
 
RDCR07 said:
Yeah but City played till first week of July. Other teams started their preseason in the first week of July. They could be slow starters plus they might get rotated due to them having a smaller preseason.
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This is also something to consider, but they didn’t exactly stretch themselves at the CWC and he is a potential captain in any one of those first 3 fixtures.

Having City players outside of him is a real issue too.
 
Maluco said:
This is also something to consider, but they didn’t exactly stretch themselves at the CWC and he is a potential captain in any one of those first 3 fixtures.

Having City players outside of him is a real issue too.
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Interesting discussion about the Salah-Palmer vs Salah-Haaland Combo. I'm currently trying to figure it out as well. The one thing which speaks for the Salah-Haaland Combo for me is, that you can cover Chelsea Attack with Joao Pedro. If you go Salah-Palmer there is no other standout Player from City to cover their attack.

Have currently two Drafts, will be one of them (Injuries aside). And please forgive me my United picks. But i love my 1-2 United players in my Team until i see them play at least:

Salah-Palmer Draft:
Sels (Dubravka)
AWB Saliba Van de Ven (Dorgu, Esteve)
Salah Palmer Ndiaye Cunha Kudus
Watkins Bowen (Guiu)

Salah-Haaland Draft
Sels (Dubravka)
AWB Saliba Van de Ven (Dorgu, Esteve)
Salah Wilson Rogers Cunha Kudus
Haaland Pedro (Guiu)

Both Drafts look very tempting to me with the first one a bit more balanced with good fixtures for Bowen, Watkins and Co. But no City Cover.

In second one I would be able to cover City, Chelsea, Villa, Liverpool attack. But would have to take punts on Wilson and to some extent also on Pedro as its not 100 sure if he is a minutes risk or not.

In a nutshell:
For my two drafts its basically

Palmer/Watkins/Bowen/Ndiaye
Vs
Haaland/Wilson/Pedro/Rogers

Rest of Team stays the same. Which Combo looks better to go?
 
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