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- Oct 25, 2017
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Yeah. Speaking of Haaland, judging by Salah's FPL price history, the best times to buy him was in the years his price came down. And it just makes sense from an averages standpoint. And we are in a price down year for Haaland.
Intetersting thing on goal share is it it kind of applies to Haaland too with Marmoush at City. Marmoush with a much higher xG than the other City attacking midfield options eats into Haaland's more than the other players would in theory. He's more of a secondary focal point than the options with over 0.40 xG per 90 when the other guys are lower.
Some of his xG last season was achieved when he played up front a few times when Haaland was out, but if just isolating it down to the games where they both played last season with Marmoush in a wider role (small sample size) Marmoush's remains high. Marmoush's did drop in the few games he played in the #10 position but I'm guessing he doesn't play much there this season - Cherki/someone else?
Marmoush must actually be fairly close to Haalanad on a per-90 FPL points basis, but his minutes expected aren't thought to be anywhere near as good due to Pep roulette.
GW1 example for the new Solio Analytics site that launched (numbers change depending on fixture):
Haaland 0.72 goals per 90, 0.18 assists
Marmoush 0.43 goals per 90, 0.33 assists, 40% clean sheet chance
Put that altogether and add in 2 points for playing 60+ it becomes Haaland 5.42, Marmoush 5.15 not counting bonus or points lost for yellows if they both played 90.
The difference grows because Haaland is expected to play 86 minutes, Marmoush 68 on their model. Last 20 minutes see more goals too than the rest of games so if factoring that in the difference would become even more prounounced.
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