Florian Wirtz | Der Fußballgott | Der Fluch ist gebrochen!

Perplexed by this transfer. After all those years of Klopp acting like the big one for not spending huge sums on one player. They’re about to spend a Premier League record fee for a player. A very good player. Do they really need him? Not quite sure on that one.
 
Perplexed by this transfer. After all those years of Klopp acting like the big one for not spending huge sums on one player. They’re about to spend a Premier League record fee for a player. A very good player. Do they really need him? Not quite sure on that one.
I suppose you could argue we've lost a major creative outlet in Alexander-Arnold, so that has to be replaced. Wirtz is likely seen as part of that new look in terms of how we play and open up the opposition.

I think he's been a target for a while. The club probably see's him as talented enough to become a critical part of our side.
 
Mail coverage of this is absolutely insane. When we are paying big sum they add wages through whole contract, signing on fee, agent fee and shit.
But when Pool does it; it is 130 mil bargain.

Wtf?!
 
I’ve seen very little of him. Is he genuinely as good as the fee would suggest? That’s around €30m more than Bellingham, which to me seems like it’ll be hard to live up to.
 
I’ve seen very little of him. Is he genuinely as good as the fee would suggest? That’s around €30m more than Bellingham, which to me seems like it’ll be hard to live up to.
He's every bit as good as Bellingham. Not sure he's really €150m good, but then I'd struggle to come up with someone that is
 
After all those years of Klopp acting like the big one for not spending huge sums on one player. They’re about to spend a Premier League record fee for a player. A very good player. Do they really need him? Not quite sure on that one.
Klopp is not the one signing Wirtz no? If he was still Liverpool's coach this transfer wouldn't materialise. Slot is the one who convinced Wirtz to join with his tactical plans, the Bayern deal fell through apparently because Wirtz wasn't as impressed after conversing with Kompany.

Slot didn't purchase new players last summer so I suppose he's got a lot more leeway to make big money moves and get some shiny new toys now after winning the PL. It'll be pivotal to his Liverpool tenure that a >100M transfer works out though.

I suppose you could argue we've lost a major creative outlet in Alexander-Arnold, so that has to be replaced.

Frimpong is the replacement.
 
Look at the history of signings in this price range. Of the top 20 transfers of all time, only about 3 are seen as a success. Even with players who have played well, there is always that sense that were they really worth it, if their signing doesn't translate into significantly more success for the team. It's a funny one because these aren't actual data points, they are more just human perception. For example, Bayern have spent what? 90-100m on Harry Kane, to so far win one league title in two years. It's not an improvement on their recent and historical performance in the league, and in Europe they didn't do any better than usual. If they don't win the CL in the next two seasons, and Kane leaves with a couple more BLs under his belt, then you'd say was he really worth it? Not for 100m, because Bayern would've expected that level of success anyway.

Then take Mbappe to PSG. Guy set all sorts of scoring records for PSG, became their all time leading scorer, they won the league every year, which they would've done anyway - but they didn't win anything in Europe. He cost them 160m pounds, and left for free. The season after he left they won the CL. They are a better team without him. Was he worth the money? Not really, and he's a player that crushed all sorts of records on an individual basis.

There is a big difference between paying 50 or 70m for a top quality player, and paying over 100m for one. The expectations are just different. And history tells us that these transfers rarely prove any sort of value for money, and in hindsight are usually seen as either an outright failure, or a relative disappointment - even if the player played well. That's just how human nature works. So yes, if he joins for over 100m, and Liverpool don't win any more than they would have particularly won without him, even if he plays well, he will be seen as a bit of a disappointment. This type of signing confers expectations of winning the very biggest prizes regularly, and more than you would have expected to otherwise. That's the basis against which it will be judged by the vast majority of observers. Whether it should be is another question. Nonetheless, all the data shows that these mega signings rarely prove a good return on investment.

Just because Bayern had been winning consecutive titles before Kane did not mean they would've won one without him this season or last. Their attacking line-up was diminishing and not the same as that which won more convincingly from 2020-2022. The season before Kane joined, Bayern won the season by a point because of an almighty collapse by Dortmund, who themselves weren't a great team. Bayern would definitely have not won the league this season without Kane.

A question would be whether Bayern needed to spend so much on a striker like Kane to win the title, could they have done so with a 30-40 m striker? I would say no again since Kane scored 62 goals in the last couple of seasons and I think few strikers would be able to replicate those numbers.

With the comments of big signings not working. Again we have to pay attention to when those signings were made and what their value would be today. An article I quoted that had inflation adjusted numbers said De Bruyne's transfer (55m in 2014) would be 150m today. So Pogba going for 100m in 2016 would need much much higher today and not comparable to Wirtz going for 110m.
 
Look at the history of signings in this price range. Of the top 20 transfers of all time, only about 3 are seen as a success. Even with players who have played well, there is always that sense that were they really worth it, if their signing doesn't translate into significantly more success for the team. It's a funny one because these aren't actual data points, they are more just human perception. For example, Bayern have spent what? 90-100m on Harry Kane, to so far win one league title in two years. It's not an improvement on their recent and historical performance in the league, and in Europe they didn't do any better than usual. If they don't win the CL in the next two seasons, and Kane leaves with a couple more BLs under his belt, then you'd say was he really worth it? Not for 100m, because Bayern would've expected that level of success anyway.

Then take Mbappe to PSG. Guy set all sorts of scoring records for PSG, became their all time leading scorer, they won the league every year, which they would've done anyway - but they didn't win anything in Europe. He cost them 160m pounds, and left for free. The season after he left they won the CL. They are a better team without him. Was he worth the money? Not really, and he's a player that crushed all sorts of records on an individual basis.

There is a big difference between paying 50 or 70m for a top quality player, and paying over 100m for one. The expectations are just different. And history tells us that these transfers rarely prove any sort of value for money, and in hindsight are usually seen as either an outright failure, or a relative disappointment - even if the player played well. That's just how human nature works. So yes, if he joins for over 100m, and Liverpool don't win any more than they would have particularly won without him, even if he plays well, he will be seen as a bit of a disappointment. This type of signing confers expectations of winning the very biggest prizes regularly, and more than you would have expected to otherwise. That's the basis against which it will be judged by the vast majority of observers. Whether it should be is another question. Nonetheless, all the data shows that these mega signings rarely prove a good return on investment.

Good post.

Another aspect of the poor track record of big money signings involves injuries. When you put all your eggs in one basket, its a gamble on that player staying healthy and sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. There have been circumstances at play in some of these cases that might not be likely with Wirtz, who seems like a model professional, but the number of the most expensive players who ended up injured frequently is really high (Neymar, Bale, Hazard, Dembele, Pogba).

Wirtz seems like a guy who will take his conditioning very seriously but he has also had a number of injuries already in his career, including one very serious one, so I don't think this part of the risk can really be discounted.
 
Perplexed by this transfer. After all those years of Klopp acting like the big one for not spending huge sums on one player. They’re about to spend a Premier League record fee for a player. A very good player. Do they really need him? Not quite sure on that one.
It’s a great deal.He puts us at another level far above our peers. Keeps us as top dogs in a league we just won at a canter and has every rival supporter and pundit freaking out. How is this not a bargain. After all it’s not the supporters money that’s being spent.
 
Quite a gap between the reported sums. Sky reports a littlenover €130m including bonuses, Kicker reports close to €150m. Since Sky was wrong almost every single time they reported on this transfer, I expect it's going to be €150m
 
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How many of the top 10 all time transfers were flops ? Basically everyone of Barcelona and both Madrid’s clubs’ in here were flops… That’s half. Grealish to City, Neymar to Paris and Ronaldo to Juventus were also a bit underwhelming, for various reasons. Jury still out on Enzo.
 
Quite a gap between the reported sums. Sky reports a littlenover €130m including bonuses, Kicker reports close to €150m. Since Sky was wrong almost every single time they reported on this transfer, I expect it's going to be €150m

It says 150M on Sky..


 
It’s a great deal.He puts us at another level far above our peers. Keeps us as top dogs in a league we just won at a canter and has every rival supporter and pundit freaking out. How is this not a bargain. After all it’s not the supporters money that’s being spent.

Yes mate it's all the talk of the pubs in Salford. Barely heard of the fecking bloke.
 
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How many of the top 10 all time transfers were flops ? Basically everyone of Barcelona and both Madrid’s clubs’ in here were flops… That’s half. Grealish to City, Neymar to Paris and Ronaldo to Juventus were also a bit underwhelming, for various reasons. Jury still out on Enzo.

Is there a list adjusted to inflation?

By the way I think 150m is a lot and is a price tag that could put a lot of pressure on Wirtz but he's a top talent and Liverpool are in a position of strength after winning the premier league.
 
It’s a great deal.He puts us at another level far above our peers. Keeps us as top dogs in a league we just won at a canter and has every rival supporter and pundit freaking out. How is this not a bargain. After all it’s not the supporters money that’s being spent.

Just had to google him to see where he plays, put Firtz in first and wondered why a random tennis player came up, shows how clueless I am.

Attacking midfielder, and a very good one by the looks of it, so well done on winning the league next season in a fast trot.
 
The fee is reaching increasingly mental proportions. 150m Euros is nearly 127 pounds. Of which, reportedly over 100m pounds is guaranteed, another 20m or so in add-ons. A properly crazy amount of money to spend on one player. Brilliant player of course, but for this to be considered a success it would have to be one of the first ever transfers of this size to actually work out. Of the top 20 transfer fees ever paid, only about 3 are unmitigated success, a handful were reasonably okay, a couple the jury is still out, and about half were massive disasters. Liverpool have generally been very smart in the transfer market, it almost feels like someone over there has had a midlife crisis and gone a bit mental.

Of course it could work out really well, but he'd have to absolutely crush it, season after season, in a very successful trophy laden team for that to be the case. From a purely analytical perspective I would have a hard time with committing so many resources to an undiversified risk. One big injury and that's an enormous investment gone kaput. That's always been my problem with massive fees.
 
Over 5 years so the your telling me Liverpool are gonna sign Wirtz for £22.6M

AMAZING DEAL!!!! how do they do it!? bargain bin deal of the century. United spent more than that on Dorgu FFS!
 
Frimpong can't do what TAA can on the ball.
He's not a deep-lying playmaker like TAA but he's very attack-minded, Liverpool already has a pretty stacked midfield and with Wirtz & Frimpong they'll try to dominate possession and create overloads against parked buses. Nevertheless it's a big risk to pay 150M for a player who has torn his ACL. Sensible coaches with a smaller risk appetite like Klopp would probably prefer to hedge their bets on two or three high potential creative players who cost 50-75M each and hope that one of them hits their potential, it's less detrimental to the wage structure and finances.
 
The fee is reaching increasingly mental proportions. 150m Euros is nearly 127 pounds. Of which, reportedly over 100m pounds is guaranteed, another 20m or so in add-ons. A properly crazy amount of money to spend on one player. Brilliant player of course, but for this to be considered a success it would have to be one of the first ever transfers of this size to actually work out. Of the top 20 transfer fees ever paid, only about 3 are unmitigated success, a handful were reasonably okay, a couple the jury is still out, and about half were massive disasters. Liverpool have generally been very smart in the transfer market, it almost feels like someone over there has had a midlife crisis and gone a bit mental.

Of course it could work out really well, but he'd have to absolutely crush it, season after season, in a very successful trophy laden team for that to be the case. From a purely analytical perspective I would have a hard time with committing so many resources to an undiversified risk. One big injury and that's an enormous investment gone kaput. That's always been my problem with massive fees.

On the one hand, I agree that most transfers in that category didn't really pay off but on the other hand, the list you refer to features so many incredibly stupid signings. Barca spending €135m of Neymar*s fee on an injury-prone player with one good season in a top 5 league who was far too erratic for their style of play back then. After that, they spend €120m on Griezmann for whom they didn't even have a position available. Atletico Madrid then copied Barca's Dembele madness by signing Joao Felix for €127m - an attacking talent who was never going to fit to their park the bus style. And then there are many cases of players failing or at least not fully succeeding at badly run clubs with either questionable culture or no clear idea of how to play football. That includes many players who moved to PSG, United and Chelsea. The only big money signings whose failures genuinely surprised me were Coutinho - who I expected to fit perfectly into Barca's tactics - and Hazard who was ruined by his ankle injury.

But when well-run clubs decide to spend huge money on a single player, their success rate is pretty good. Grealish, Rice, Bellingham, Bale, Kane and van Dijk were all very good signings (albeit Grealish was a bit underwhelming).
 
Klopp is not the one signing Wirtz no? If he was still Liverpool's coach this transfer wouldn't materialise. Slot is the one who convinced Wirtz to join with his tactical plans, the Bayern deal fell through apparently because Wirtz wasn't as impressed after conversing with Kompany.

Slot didn't purchase new players last summer so I suppose he's got a lot more leeway to make big money moves and get some shiny new toys now after winning the PL. It'll be pivotal to his Liverpool tenure that a >100M transfer works out though.



Frimpong is the replacement.
Klopp was happy enough to break transfer records and spend huge funds on players. He was just talking bollocks to slander United in the media.
 
Seems like every couple of years there's a player in Germany that is hyped beyond belief, Gotze, Havertz, Sane, Gnabry.. Only seen Musiala to actually live up to the hype. Is Wirtz really head and shoulders above those?
 
It’s a great deal.He puts us at another level far above our peers. Keeps us as top dogs in a league we just won at a canter and has every rival supporter and pundit freaking out. How is this not a bargain. After all it’s not the supporters money that’s being spent.

I don’t see any transfer over £100m as a great deal.
 
He's every bit as good as Bellingham. Not sure he's really €150m good, but then I'd struggle to come up with someone that is
Come on now, a German player is never going to be as good as an English player. Take off those xenophobic tinted specs.
 
Seems like every couple of years there's a player in Germany that is hyped beyond belief, Gotze, Havertz, Sane, Gnabry.. Only seen Musiala to actually live up to the hype. Is Wirtz really head and shoulders above those?
He’s not over-hyped but he’s expensive so has huge expectations on him. Liverpool’s dealings with Bundesliga is broadly successful.
Firmino
Konate
Matip
Szoboszlai
Endo
Gravenberch

It’s fertile ground but Wirtz is another level in stature to the list above as he’s done better than any of them in Germany. Keita didn’t work out but injuries played their part in that one.
 
Frimpong is the replacement.
Frimpong obviously replacing TAA but I think Wirtz is the creative replacement in terms of how chances are created. In fact, Slot’s use of Alexander-Arnold was more conservative than Klopp’s approach. More positionally disciplined and less risky, which saw him have a good season defensively but less prominent in attack.

Wirtz is a more conventional route to goal creation without the defensive compromise.
 
Here I said it - this day and age (with prices actually going down) only an idiot would pay £100m for a player from Bundesliga. Risks are just too high. Looking like prime Messi in that league means very little when the player actually moves to EPL. Doesn't mean you can't sign players from Bundesliga but an English club with half a brain should never pay more than £70-75m for a player from Germany.

Liverpool owners are pretty smart and shrude, so it will be interesting what, if anything, actually happens
 
VVD’s price was a record, Alisson’s too, for not as long- thank you Kepa. However, if you said to any person watching those two you’d say. Success, under any metric.
To buy the VVD and Alissons in the attacking positions, you are paying more right? If Wirtz plays to the level most think for the next 5 years, nobody will say, ah he’s played great but he’s still a failure because he cost x amount.
So Nunez?
 
Here I said it - this day and age (with prices actually going down) only an idiot would pay £100m for a player from Bundesliga.
Liverpool’s recruitment since 2016 has been incredibly successful. That doesn’t mean every signing has been successful but the trend has been pretty incredible and represents a very sound approach to transfers. Very few other clubs have shown equivalent judgement in the market - City and Arsenal but few others.

They’re not idiots, they’re looking to build on the league win with a stronger go at the CL. To improve the current squad isn’t straightforward and the market is complex. Wirtz is one of a few available players who can improve the team so it’s going to cost a lot to do so.
 
Liverpool’s recruitment since 2016 has been incredibly successful. That doesn’t mean every signing has been successful but the trend has been pretty incredible and represents a very sound approach to transfers. Very few other clubs have shown equivalent judgement in the market - City and Arsenal but few others.

They’re not idiots, they’re looking to build on the league win with a stronger go at the CL. To improve the current squad isn’t straightforward and the market is complex. Wirtz is one of a few available players who can improve the team so it’s going to cost a lot to do so.
Agree with pretty much everything you are saying. The only thing I am skeptical about is that considering how smart and shrude they are, I will be very much surprised if they pay £100m for ANY player from Bundesliga. Leverkusen can think Wirtz costs a billion, all they want, doesn't mean Liverpool should agree. If Leverkusen want to pretend it is 2022 and stupid deals are still done, I expect Liverpool will move on to somebody else.
 
Agree with pretty much everything you are saying. The only thing I am skeptical about is that considering how smart and shrude they are, I will be very much surprised if they pay £100m for ANY player from Bundesliga. Leverkusen can think Wirtz costs a billion, all they want, doesn't mean Liverpool should agree. If Leverkusen want to pretend it is 2022 and stupid deals are still done, I expect Liverpool will move on to somebody else.
They have already offered well over £100m for him, do prepare to be very much surprised.
 
Didn't think arsenal and Liverpool would sign a £100m player before we did
 
Really hope he flops, but I have a bad feeling he won't. Heck of a lot of money, but he was a player I thought would only end up at either Bayern or Real, not the bloody Scousers.