On Atletico PR +0.5 tomorrow at 1.9 small. Not my favourite scenario for a bet as game is at 2500m altitude so would usually look to bet the home team but think value is in away this time.
They played last year and PR were about 6/4 to win; was priced as a 50/50 game. I was on Wilstermann 0 in that scenario.
PR are worse this year, lost a few good players however Wilstermann haven’t played since March. Their friendly games were called off so they haven’t had any proper games bar internal ones against reserves in the last 6 months. Bolivian fitness is low at the best of times, let alone in these conditions. Should be a big leveller imo as the altitude really kicks in 30-45th minute and 75 onwards. It should be more even that normal during these periods but wilster will probably still be on top during them unless they’re leading. Even with replacements PR are way better player for player, they’ll win comfortably at home. I think the lack of match prep will negate the altitude effects to some extent, will still be issues with ball speed but fitness wise it should be a nice leveller. I think 2.3 is probably fair for Wilster.
These games usually play out with the sea level team being better side first 25 minute or so then the home team gets on top and pressure builds throughout the game. I’m hoping it’ll be slightly different to normal.