Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

[FootballHQ]

Shocker of a season for me. Well down on what I started with in August. Probably best summed up by putting 20 quid on Inter to score next goal (7-1) when Empoli had last minute corner and sent the keeper up, ball breaks to Inter and Brozovic shoots from 60 yards into the net.

Goal disallowed as braindead Keita decides to trip up the keeper who was still a good 10 yards behind the player with the ball.

Would've quite enjoyed having 200 quid to play with for championship final and putting loads of insurance bets on Derby.

 

[Spiersey]

Shocker of a season for me. Well down on what I started with in August. Probably best summed up by putting 20 quid on Inter to score next goal (7-1) when Empoli had last minute corner and sent the keeper up, ball breaks to Inter and Brozovic shoots from 60 yards into the net.

Goal disallowed as braindead Keita decides to trip up the keeper who was still a good 10 yards behind the player with the ball.

Would've quite enjoyed having 200 quid to play with for championship final and putting loads of insurance bets on Derby.

Was on over 3.5 in Inter as well for injury time. Never seen anything as moronic as what Keita did, absurd.

 

[Spiersey]

Japan u20s 3/1 to beat Italy. Have 13/10- 5/4 fair price for that. Italy already qualified, think they'll rotate. Japan are a better side anyway I think.
Ecuador 6/4 to beat Mexico. Tipped against Mexico here both games so far and both won easily. Overrated side. Ecuador were a lot better than Italy today, should have won and were better side even with 10 men. 7/10 is fair price for me. Worth doing a double as well at 9/1

 

[Rolandofgilead]

No worries

Over 2.5 a nice bet in Norway New Zealand tomorrow. Should be an open game with two poor defences and decent attacks.

4/6 is the best odds i've found on this bet, i think i might lump on

 

[Spiersey]

4/6 is the best odds i've found on this bet, i think i might lump on

Best to just wait in play and hope no goal in the first 5 minutes, should drift to 4/5 again.

 

[fergiesarmy1]

Abraham 1st 4/1 and anytime 7/5 worth a tickle, scored home and away against derby this season, 5 goals in last 6. Penno taker as well.

9/2 at willy hills and Betfair on the first goal scorer

 

[John_Dooh]

Small punt on Gojowczyk @4.90 vs Songa, Songa not the same player after his injury and don't think the odds reflects that....

On Hourihane and Holmes YC in Villa game @4.00/5.50

Will probably have a medium bet on Norway u20 wincast w/ Haaland goal anytime, best I've seen so far is 3.60....

 

[Rolandofgilead]

Does anybody have eyes on the Norway game? I have them to win but concerned by the stats.

 

[Spiersey]

Does anybody have eyes on the Norway game? I have them to win but concerned by the stats.

Watching, New Zealand been the better side but Norway missed a huge chance at the end of the half. Don't think Norway can possibly play any worse 2nd half.

 

[John_Dooh]

Feck, Nz what a goal, Norway very disappointing, deserved lead.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

Watching, New Zealand been the better side but Norway missed a huge chance at the end of the half. Don't think Norway can possibly play any worse 2nd half.

Great goal but Norway are a disgrace

 

[Spiersey]

Great goal but Norway are a disgrace

Been disappointing today. I had NZ down as one of the 3 worst teams pre tournament but they've been genuinely excellent both games. Unsure how they are so good.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

Been disappointing today. I had NZ down as one of the 3 worst teams pre tournament but they've been genuinely excellent both games. Unsure how they are so good.

At the moment Norway are making them look good, it’s so easy for them.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

That’s that, Norway are awful

 

[John_Dooh]

Unlucky not to get your bet in there @Spiersey, looked like a clear peno to me. My bet was just crap.

 

[Spiersey]

Unlucky not to get your bet in there @Spiersey, looked like a clear peno to me. My bet was just crap.

Looked stonewall to me as well, never seen a replay of it either. Should have won earlier as well with the missed chances but nevermind. The 4 games tomorrow all look priced pretty well so no bets in those.

 

[John_Dooh]

Zverev doing his best to loose the first set here....

On:
Gavrilova - Krunic o20.5 @1.87 - Shitfest incoming from 2 out of form players
Lopez -1.5 vs Karlovic @1.90
Paquet VS Linette @2.38

Been on the last two for a while dunno odds now. Any thoughts out there on the Vitesse game tonight that everyone is betting on, home and goals? Odds seems a bit short now...

 

[Spiersey]

Japan u20s 3/1 to beat Italy. Have 13/10- 5/4 fair price for that. Italy already qualified, think they'll rotate. Japan are a better side anyway I think.
Ecuador 6/4 to beat Mexico. Tipped against Mexico here both games so far and both won easily. Overrated side. Ecuador were a lot better than Italy today, should have won and were better side even with 10 men. 7/10 is fair price for me. Worth doing a double as well at 9/1

Ecuador smashed in now. Japan hasn't dropped much as people are backing a draw. They're expecting both to play out for a draw but it is unlikely to happen imo. Japan need a 4 goal swing against them to finish 3rd and even if that happens they are 90% likely as it stands to go through as one of the 4 best 3rd place sides (could be 100% by the time the game is played). If draw keeps getting backed then I will lay it. People betting draw aren't aware of the 3rd places qualifying.

 

[John_Dooh]

Ecuador smashed in now. Japan hasn't dropped much as people are backing a draw. They're expecting both to play out for a draw but it is unlikely to happen imo. Japan need a 4 goal swing against them to finish 3rd and even if that happens they are 90% likely as it stands to go through as one of the 4 best 3rd place sides (could be 100% by the time the game is played). If draw keeps getting backed then I will lay it. People betting draw aren't aware of the 3rd places qualifying.

Hedge with Italy and 0-0, when there is a goal bet on draw? Should get well over 3 for a draw then, and cheaper hedge? 0-0 is 7.00 atm, but should increase again?

 

[Spiersey]

Hedge with Italy and 0-0, when there is a goal bet on draw? Should get well over 3 for a draw then, and cheaper hedge? 0-0 is 7.00 atm, but should increase again?

I don't think draw is a bet, pretty sure Japan will play to win so they win the group. Big advantage to winning as they'd play a 3rd place side. Will know better after today and tomorrow regarding whether or not they are 100% qualified before the game, will update if they are/aren't through.

 

[Spiersey]

Ecuador smashed in now. Japan hasn't dropped much as people are backing a draw. They're expecting both to play out for a draw but it is unlikely to happen imo. Japan need a 4 goal swing against them to finish 3rd and even if that happens they are 90% likely as it stands to go through as one of the 4 best 3rd place sides (could be 100% by the time the game is played). If draw keeps getting backed then I will lay it. People betting draw aren't aware of the 3rd places qualifying.

Japan guaranteed to go through unless Ecuador get a 4 goal swing on them and Panama do the same (probably a 1000/1 chance). They'll play to win imo, big advantage to winning the group, gets you an easier draw + an extra days rest for the quarters.

 

[Spiersey]

Japan u20s 3/1 to beat Italy. Have 13/10- 5/4 fair price for that. Italy already qualified, think they'll rotate. Japan are a better side anyway I think.
Ecuador 6/4 to beat Mexico. Tipped against Mexico here both games so far and both won easily. Overrated side. Ecuador were a lot better than Italy today, should have won and were better side even with 10 men. 7/10 is fair price for me. Worth doing a double as well at 9/1

Italy 9 changes, rotated all their best players.

 

[John_Dooh]

Italy 9 changes, rotated all their best players.

How's the game looking @Spiersey ?
Equador looks good!

 

[fergiesarmy1]

Japan missed a penno earlier

 

[John_Dooh]

Japan missed a penno earlier

Typical! And all those that bet on 0-0 gets rewarded for being mistaken? I only see the stats but looks like Japan has been going for the win, like Spiersey predicted?

Edit: Finished 0-0, d@mmit! Well, good tips as usual @Spiersey, at least you got paid on Equador, well deserved but should have been 2 for 2....

 

[Spiersey]

How's the game looking @Spiersey ?
Equador looks good!

They played to win, missed a pen, a 1 v 1 and a couple of other big chances. Had a shot cleared off the line 90th minute as well. Very unlucky to not win, Italy only 1 proper chance all game. Really frustrating.

Ecuador won as well, so profit over the two. Bit nervy as they chased more goals but managed to hold on.

 

[Spiersey]

On draw in Poland u20s in play 1.8

Senegal win group with a point and Poland qualify as one of the best 3rd place sides. Poland concede and they are out, Senegal finish 3rd if they concede. Too much to lose for both to really try to win the game. No real tempo this half.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

@Spiersey do you think New Zealand will rotate and relax tonight? Based on their first 2 performances I’m tempted to back them tonight, what do you think?

 

[Spiersey]

@Spiersey do you think New Zealand will rotate and relax tonight? Based on their first 2 performances I’m tempted to back them tonight, what do you think?

I'm not too sure, spent last night trying to work out if they would. I think they'll both be strong, loser plays Colombia who are a very strong side. Winner will get a 3rd place side, think it's either Poland, Ecuador or South Korea. All 3 of those are easier than Colombia + it's an extra days rest for finishing top. I had some on New Zealand when prices opened initially. Think its a 60/40 match in favour of Uruguay if both go full strength, going to wait for lineups though I think before committing anything.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Nigeria - Ukraine end a draw similar to last night. Ukraine top with a draw and Nigeria through with a point. Nigeria would risk going out if they lose and Ukraine could finish 3rd with a loss as well (but still go through). USA will beat Qatar today but their price is far too short, I've got 1/4 fair. +2 Asian is okay for a small bet I think.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

I'm not too sure, spent last night trying to work out if they would. I think they'll both be strong, loser plays Colombia who are a very strong side. Winner will get a 3rd place side, think it's either Poland, Ecuador or South Korea. All 3 of those are easier than Colombia + it's an extra days rest for finishing top. I had some on New Zealand when prices opened initially. Think its a 60/40 match in favour of Uruguay if both go full strength, going to wait for lineups though I think before committing anything.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Nigeria - Ukraine end a draw similar to last night. Ukraine top with a draw and Nigeria through with a point. Nigeria would risk going out if they lose and Ukraine could finish 3rd with a loss as well (but still go through). USA will beat Qatar today but their price is far too short, I've got 1/4 fair. +2 Asian is okay for a small bet I think.

Hmm ok, let me know what you decide and I’ll take another look

 

[Spiersey]

Hmm ok, let me know what you decide and I’ll take another look

Both sides rotated heavily. I've traded my bet on New Zealand and I've got some on Uruguay Win. It's a bit of a guess though but can't imagine NZ have 22 good players. Will be a bigger drop off from their starting XI to backups that Uruguays imo. Mata starts for them who was their best player at u17s in 2017. Decent step up for him here, should be a bit out of his depth, would imagine there is a few in the same boat. Probably worth waiting til in play and seeing how the game goes. Logic says Uruguay backups will be better though.

Edit. Win was 11/10 when I posted this, would leave the game at current prices

 

[John_Dooh]

Norway up 2-0 after 10 mins, Haaland both goals. Edit: second goal disallowed, maybe harshly...Norway dominating should be easy win.

Got 1.65 on Norway on Coolbet a couple of days ago when others where areound 1.4....

See Uruguay have 80% possession first 15mins, How's the game looking @Spiersey, worth getting on Uruguay in play at current price, 1.70 ish?

 

[Spiersey]

Norway up 2-0 after 10 mins, Haaland both goals. Edit: second goal disallowed, maybe harshly...Norway dominating should be easy win.

Got 1.65 on Norway on Coolbet a couple of days ago when others where areound 1.4....

See Uruguay have 80% possession first 15mins, How's the game looking @Spiersey, worth getting on Uruguay in play at current price, 1.70 ish?

Yeah Uruguay a lot better as expected, few big chances missed. New Zealand not done anything at all, think 1/2-0 ft.

 

[Rolandofgilead]

This game has 0-0 written all over it

 

[Rolandofgilead]

Or not

 

[John_Dooh]

Get in! 1-0 Uruguay.

Norway 5-0 now, could have been 10....Played 5€ on Haaland hattrick @45.00 against NZ, probably a lot lower price today forgot about it and didn't look, and off course he bags it today!

Could we call Ødegaard up if we get to QF?

Edit: On Tsurenko 2-0, comes back from 1-5 down to 5-5 and is broken to 5-6, WTA is crazy, sometimes wonder if there is possibility in making money betting on the big swings in matches....

Note for potential Norway U20 QF, Norway looking much better with Evjen and Thorstvedt, unsure how much of it is just Honduras being horrible.

Edit II: Haaland 7 goals holy cr@p, must be some kind of record?

Edit III: And Haaland bags a late brace to make it 9 for the evening, ruining my top goalscorer bets most likely!

 

[Spiersey]

Had info from one of the Norway players that they were going to go for a big win and had the lineup this morning, still didn’t stake anything on them. Horrendous gambling from me.

 

[fergiesarmy1]

Had info from one of the Norway players that they were going to go for a big win and had the lineup this morning, still didn’t stake anything on them. Horrendous gambling from me.

Well it’s just bullying now at 12

 

[Spiersey]

On draw in Nigeria Ukraine in play at 6/4 small. If it’s a draw at ht I think they’ll just play it out, both happy with a point. Ukraine rotated a bit so attack is pretty weak, which helps I guess.

 

[Big Andy]

Anyone else had the free bet for Bet365 on the Champions League Final...

Don't know whether to go with my head, or with what I want to happen...

Tempted to put my £25 on Liverpool to win, and then put my free £25 on Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals or something.