Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

FootballHQ

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Argentine league still ongoing aswell. :drool:
 

Havak

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No idea on the reasoning, but been tipped to back Paloma Blue in the 16:50 at Cheltenham. 10/1 at the moment, so going to have a punt on it.
 

Withnail

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No idea on the reasoning, but been tipped to back Paloma Blue in the 16:50 at Cheltenham. 10/1 at the moment, so going to have a punt on it.
John Duggan one of the sports broadcasters in Ireland who covers the racing is doing Charity bets and this was one of his tips.

He's usually up every year. 1 in 4 he didn't make a profit.

No one else is tipping it but as you say it's 10/1 so I threw a tenner on it.
 

Havak

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John Duggan one of the sports broadcasters in Ireland who covers the racing is doing Charity bets and this was one of his tips.

He's usually up every year. 1 in 4 he didn't make a profit.

No one else is tipping it but as you say it's 10/1 so I threw a tenner on it.
Cheers, yeah definitely worth a 10 bob note.

Got super lucky in the first race, had Burning Victory on one of my accas :lol:
 

Havak

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On for a treble at the moment:

Burning Victory - Won
Saint Roi - Won
Thyme Hill -

Can cash out now for £940 or let it ride for £6820.
 

André Dominguez

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Small punt on over 0.5HT & Young Boys to score first @2.96 combined (risky)

Edit: 0-0 HT, so Fail
 
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P-Nut

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Had a day off yesterday to make sure I didn't spunk all my winnings.

Just woke up and gone on Santini in the 3:30

And a 4 fold on the last races starting with Delta Work
 

Havak

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Did you cash that treble out?
Yeah, kept £700 and used £240 on those two horses, got £780 so account is at £1480 from today.

I fancy Kemboy in the next and I'm bricking it for ITVs 7 at the moment! I'm 4/4 winners with Medalla de Oro, Kemboy and Midella Rocco to come.

Edit: 5/5 with Medalla de Oro coming in!
 
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muller

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Al Boum Photo.. have in 3 accas that are still alive. Keep or cash out?!
 

Havak

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Al Boum Photo.. have in 3 accas that are still alive. Keep or cash out?!
Depends how much :lol:

Maybe cash out two but keep the highest return one alive? Such a tough race to call really.

Edit: Hope you didn't take my advice haha
 
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muller

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i literally pressed "cash out" and wimped out on "confirm". Tiny stakes compared to you. I budget £30 a day this week, cash out for all 3 was about £40 each before the race..
 

P-Nut

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Done by a head, and it stumbled getting around a horse on the run in.

See how we do on the next before calling it a day if it goes wrong.
 

muller

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Ok, so 3 accas live..

A lucky 31, 3 winners and a loser so far but cash out is £115. Alternative is leave for the last which is front view - full return £350
7 fold ew - 3 winners and a placed so far, Left is billaway, chosen mate and front view. Cash out £60, let roll for £400
then a lucky 15 ew with 2 placed so far - left is Crocobay and Ilikethewayyourthinking. Cash out is tiny, double original stake, or let go for £400
 

P-Nut

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Ok, so 3 accas live..

A lucky 31, 3 winners and a loser so far but cash out is £115. Alternative is leave for the last which is front view - full return £350
7 fold ew - 3 winners and a placed so far, Left is billaway, chosen mate and front view. Cash out £60, let roll for £400
then a lucky 15 ew with 2 placed so far - left is Crocobay and Ilikethewayyourthinking. Cash out is tiny, double original stake, or let go for £400
If £170 is a big win for you then take it, if not then let em ride and enjoy the races
 

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Al Boum photo saves the day and has me back in the green for the day but not the week.

Hopefully either Paloma Blue or Billaway come through for me
 
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Danny Roberts

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Al Boum photo saves the day and has me back in the green for the day but not the week.

Hopefully either Paloma Blue or Billaway come through for me
similar, had a good win on Boum but Billaway would made for a good week. Oh well, about level. So many offers and freebies though so that was poor really
 

Spiersey

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Learning a programming language is actually not that hard. Once you learn the first one, the others are a matter of syntax. Admire your patience for golf and gymn: tried both and got extremely bored with it.

I use Judo, Jujutsu and BJJ as a way to keep in shape and work my mind, but training sessions are suspended everywhere.
Appreciate it but I’ve barely done either for the last 2 years. Gambled pretty much 12-15 hours every day for 2.5 years :lol: Going to be very weird having free time again.

Ecuador, Bolivia and Qatar all going ahead still I believe but closed doors. Doesn’t make a big difference in Bolivia or Qatar really as crowds are small (Qatar is probably the lowest home bias in the world). Hopefully still some bets over the next week or two.
 

muller

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Cashed out 1.. now have front view in a lucky 31..

cash out £120 or run for £350.. will have some return either way as 3 of the 5 won..
 

Pagh Wraith

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:lol: How long do you think it would take me to learn model based betting? I have very little knowledge of it, I do everything in my head based on what I watch etc. Wouldn’t be the worse thing for me to learn if I’ve time. I’d planned to just golf every morning and then Gym in the afternoons but it seems like leaving the house might not be possible so may as well put my time to better use.
I'm not really the person to ask. Neither on coding nor on modelling. :lol:

What I mainly do is compile Pinnacle's closing odds, demarginalise them and calculate the expected (pre-match) goals for every team. So basically with the 1X2 and over/under price I can calculate that team A was expected to score 1.67 goals and team B 0.92 goals for instance. These are the basis for my ratings which will be adjusted whenever new data comes in. So if I had Liverpool to score 1.92 but they close at 1.74 they would be downgraded by a percentage of the difference. I have found this to be a very accurate method all in all. Just as an example, in the Bundesliga this season, the markets expected 399.75 home goals and 331.86 away goals. My 'model' predicted 400.08 home goals and 331.64 away goals. No individual team deviates more than 3% from Pinnacle's closing prices. I assume if you skipped the first few weeks of the season, it'd be even more accurate.

This is not that difficult to do with Excel (albeit a little tedious) and macros. What is really tedious is to copy paste the latest data, the next matchday and then go through every match in every league you cover and compare with market prices. So what I would like is to have everything in one application that uses data feeds for displaying all upcoming features, current Asian prices (not sure if that is even possible for non-corporate) and highlights potential bets. I'm not a complete novice when it comes to programming but I'm just starting all over again so really not sure how realistic that is. Skillshare is a good place to start I think, they have loads of courses on learning to code.

Whether this would be a good approach for the more obscure stuff you are betting, I don't really know. I would assume factors such as team news, bad weather and other random off-field issues that are hard to account for with a model can move the lines quite dramatically. That's ignoring the fact that these markets are pretty volatile anyway so the margin of error has to be much bigger. I still check for team news, fixture congestion, xG form and such where I can to filter out obvious errors but the mainstream leagues have a certain degree of predictability about them, i.e. team ratings remain relatively constant.
 

muller

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Cashed it al out, £250 all in all, £50 in at the start of the day. Please with the week in the end. Cheers all.
 

ROFLUTION

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Al Boum photo saves the day and has me back in the green for the day but not the week.

Hopefully either Paloma Blue or Billaway come through for me
Al-bum photo? is that name for real? :lol:What's the entrance tune - Nickleback - Photograph?
 

Ayush_reddevil

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If you guys are really bored and really want to get on something then Judd Trump in the final is a good bet . Trump -1.5 at 1.73 is a good possibility too though Wilson has played really well today
 

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Is anyone betting on the Argentinian Superliga?

Won on Racing Club yesterday and thinking of betting on Rosario Central to win tomorrow at 1.67.

Today's Lanus vs Argentinos Juniors seems too close to call.
 

SambaBoy

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Won quite big on my own team last night. Bet through my mates account. We were playing a team 4/5 leagues below us in the cup, and bookies had the other team at +7.5 @2.20 which would probably be priced right normally but we basically played the 20's team so was never going to be an 8-0. Ended up 4-0 so easy winner.

None of the football in Australia has been suspended yet, just behind closed doors for now.
 

Ayush_reddevil

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Shaun Murphy to beat Mark Allen @1.60
Neil Robertson to beat Ding Junhui
Trump Vs Higgins over 2.5 century breaks / Trump -1.5
 

Spiersey

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Embarrassing how much bookies are scraping the barrel for games now. Uganda womens league traded tomorrow for the first time ever, Esports fifa league being traded too. Uganda womens league will be worth monitoring in play, it's unlikely to be well priced. Teams are 1.8 could win 6-0 or something (just an example). Worth following the in play stats and seeing if there is any value based on the stats compared to prices.
 

John_Dooh

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Embarrassing how much bookies are scraping the barrel for games now. Uganda womens league traded tomorrow for the first time ever, Esports fifa league being traded too. Uganda womens league will be worth monitoring in play, it's unlikely to be well priced. Teams are 1.8 could win 6-0 or something (just an example). Worth following the in play stats and seeing if there is any value based on the stats compared to prices.
Thanks for the tip Maestro, but I find it a bit scary. If this virus has mutated into making us watch Ugandan womens league, society as I at least knew it, is surely doomed.
 
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