Football & Sports Betting Thread 2020/2021

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
6,933
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
I'm always a bit scared when betting on teams that are not Brazil or Argentina. Always feel like some layer of corruption and weird referees can still happen nowadays.
Theres definitely bias towards the Argentina and Brazil with refs and VAR but for the other sides its just pure incompetence. Refs aren't used to being at this standard of football at all and are just out of their depth bar the Brazil/Argie based ones.
 

Berbaclass

Full Member
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
17,680
Location
Cooper Station
Austria -1.5 @ 1.80 against Norway has to be the bet of the day. Norway had to call up an entirely new squad due to a COVID outbreak so it’s basically just players that they could find to play in time. Add to the fact that Austria need to beat them to win the group to get promoted.
 

PogBruno

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Aug 8, 2015
Messages
96
Austria -1.5 @ 1.80 against Norway has to be the bet of the day. Norway had to call up an entirely new squad due to a COVID outbreak so it’s basically just players that they could find to play in time. Add to the fact that Austria need to beat them to win the group to get promoted.
good find
 

Berbaclass

Full Member
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
17,680
Location
Cooper Station
Austria -1.5 @ 1.80 against Norway has to be the bet of the day. Norway had to call up an entirely new squad due to a COVID outbreak so it’s basically just players that they could find to play in time. Add to the fact that Austria need to beat them to win the group to get promoted.
Interestingly its drifting in the market. Out to @ 1.96.
 

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
6,933
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
On under 2.5 in play in Perth Shenhua from 1-0.

I took under 3 after the goal but 2.5 is still value from here. Been 1 chance all game so far and that was a great finish. Shenhua missing all their foreign attacks, either injured or not registered. Mbia playing CB, he's arguably best CB in asia currently. They are strong defensively. Perth side is really weak, loads of kids playing. Only Fornaroli who can score really for them and Mbia has marshalled him well so far. I think it'll probably end 2-0 Shenhua but good chance of 1-0 if the game stays like this. Neither side creating anything as theres very little quality in attack for either.
 

Spiersey

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2012
Messages
6,933
Location
United Kingdom.
Supports
Chelsea
On under 2.5 in play in Perth Shenhua from 1-0.

I took under 3 after the goal but 2.5 is still value from here. Been 1 chance all game so far and that was a great finish. Shenhua missing all their foreign attacks, either injured or not registered. Mbia playing CB, he's arguably best CB in asia currently. They are strong defensively. Perth side is really weak, loads of kids playing. Only Fornaroli who can score really for them and Mbia has marshalled him well so far. I think it'll probably end 2-0 Shenhua but good chance of 1-0 if the game stays like this. Neither side creating anything as theres very little quality in attack for either.
Massive keeper error instantly :lol: Would take under 3.25 from here.
 

Berbaclass

Full Member
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
17,680
Location
Cooper Station
Had a really frustrating one earlier. Backed Wuhan & Over 1.5 @ 2.80. They were much the better team for most of the game and lead 2-0 at HT. They conceded with about 30 minutes left and just kept getting deeper and deeper. They then conceded a penalty in the 90th+9 minute (correct decision but absolutely moronic defending) and I was fecking fuming. 2-2.

Had a bet on Albania @ 1.86 here.
 

MC89

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Oct 5, 2018
Messages
540
Location
Glasgow
Supports
Celtic
Can anyone explain why Aston Villa are 5/4 at home to Brighton? Seen a awful big price or am I missing something? Thanks.
 

weizxx

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Jul 10, 2010
Messages
58
Can anyone explain why Aston Villa are 5/4 at home to Brighton? Seen a awful big price or am I missing something? Thanks.
Brighton played quite good dispite the result I guess. I think they played very good in the 2-3 VS United game.
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
3,965
Location
Germany
Can anyone explain why Aston Villa are 5/4 at home to Brighton? Seen a awful big price or am I missing something? Thanks.
Markets rate them about equal as Brighton generally have been much better than their results.

Some stats:


I have staked over 2.75 for what it's worth.
 

archiebald

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Oct 13, 2020
Messages
194
Markets rate them about equal as Brighton generally have been much better than their results.

I have staked over 2.75 for what it's worth.
Like the over play here as well, will likely dump some coin on it later.
 

Nani Nana

Full Member
Joined
Apr 25, 2009
Messages
4,670
Location
Serbia
Supports
Whoever won the game
Can anyone explain why Aston Villa are 5/4 at home to Brighton? Seen a awful big price or am I missing something? Thanks.
Brighton are 6th in the PL in terms of xG for - xG against. Villa are 7th.

Now I have been told in this thread that bookies do not take this into account, but it certainly would explain it.
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
3,965
Location
Germany
Brighton are 6th in the PL in terms of xG for - xG against. Villa are 7th.

Now I have been told in this thread that bookies do not take this into account, but it certainly would explain it.
That's not what I said though. Of course performance metrics determine the prices as they have to reflect the true probabilities of a match outcome as accurately as possible. It's just that the bookies do not move the prices themselves. The process is automated and prices move according to money staked. If Villa opened at -1 Asian line (which you may think reasonable looking at the table) that price would get hammered instantly by bettors who know it to be false. Closer to kickoff when prices are more or less correct large syndicates become active and stake huge sums of money as they have access to the most sophisticated data analysis and can squeeze the last bit of value out of the market as they are so confident in their own prices. This is why the closing price is the best predictor of future outcomes there is. Though it has to be said that the Premier League markets have been somewhat erratic this season.
 

Nani Nana

Full Member
Joined
Apr 25, 2009
Messages
4,670
Location
Serbia
Supports
Whoever won the game
That's not what I said though. Of course performance metrics determine the prices as they have to reflect the true probabilities of a match outcome as accurately as possible. It's just that the bookies do not move the prices themselves. The process is automated and prices move according to money staked. If Villa opened at -1 Asian line (which you may think reasonable looking at the table) that price would get hammered instantly by bettors who know it to be false. Closer to kickoff when prices are more or less correct large syndicates become active and stake huge sums of money as they have access to the most sophisticated data analysis and can squeeze the last bit of value out of the market as they are so confident in their own prices. This is why the closing price is the best predictor of future outcomes there is. Though it has to be said that the Premier League markets have been somewhat erratic this season.
Thanks for clarifying.
 

Danny Roberts

Full Member
Joined
Jul 18, 2017
Messages
1,415
Location
Watching the game
£5 free bet, seemingly for all customers, at Betfair Exchange on the big race tomorrow. Just login and claim.
 

Marty1968

Full Member
Joined
Oct 2, 2013
Messages
1,852
Ipswich at home to Shrewsbury 5/6 looks decent odds to me. Add Brentford, Atalanta, Juve and United and that's just over 5/1...
 

Jagga7

Full Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Messages
6,416
Location
BET365
Markets rate them about equal as Brighton generally have been much better than their results.

Some stats:


I have staked over 2.75 for what it's worth.
Could you please tell me which site you use for these stats?
 

Pagh Wraith

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2011
Messages
3,965
Location
Germany
Don't use the AsianOdds broker that often normally but today I did and didn't have SBO turned off there. And obviously I instantly had a winner voided in League One. Remember we had a discussion on SBO a while back @Spiersey. Lesson learnt.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
11,950
Supports
Aston Villa
Just me that thinks Spurs even drawing with Man. City at 3/1 is pretty generous? They took 4 points off Man. City last season and feels like a sort of 1-0 win game for them despite only having 30% possesion.
 

Berbaclass

Full Member
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
17,680
Location
Cooper Station
Just me that thinks Spurs even drawing with Man. City at 3/1 is pretty generous? They took 4 points off Man. City last season and feels like a sort of 1-0 win game for them despite only having 30% possesion.
The game here last season they got battered and won 2-0 though. I think City will win tonight.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
11,950
Supports
Aston Villa
The game here last season they got battered and won 2-0 though. I think City will win tonight.
Man. City not been that great so far, first game after internationals and Spurs could easily bunker in if they get an early Son/Kane goal.

Hardly any difference in price between Spurs win and draw which I always like so had a nibble on both.
 

Berbaclass

Full Member
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
17,680
Location
Cooper Station
Man. City not been that great so far, first game after internationals and Spurs could easily bunker in if they get an early Son/Kane goal.

Hardly any difference in price between Spurs win and draw which I always like so had a nibble on both.
I think that's their gameplay either way mate :lol:
 

awop

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Sep 28, 2010
Messages
1,314
Location
Paris
Supports
Arsenal
Couldnt bring myself to go for a pure Spurs victory but Win or Draw for Spurs clearly was easy money.
Bayern Munich drawing was an acca breaker though :(
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
11,950
Supports
Aston Villa
Actually just realised I had a treble of Spurs, Man. United and Everton this weekend so no doubt Fulham will put in their best performance of a decade tomorrow with Mitrovic scoring a hat trick. :lol:

200 quid off a 10 tenner stake so will certainly be putting some insurance money on a draw and perhaps a Fulham win as they're both decent odds.

Was just looking at Leeds price btw as I fancy them to win v Arsenal and Bet365 are pricing them at 2/1, is that the regular price at other online bookies?

Shows how much Arsenal aren't rated much now as you'd have to go back to mid 90s for last time a promoted team was priced that low to beat them. Leeds caused them loads of trouble at Emirates in the cup in January so they'll create plenty of chances and Bamford is in form this time.
 

awop

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Sep 28, 2010
Messages
1,314
Location
Paris
Supports
Arsenal
Actually just realised I had a treble of Spurs, Man. United and Everton this weekend so no doubt Fulham will put in their best performance of a decade tomorrow with Mitrovic scoring a hat trick. :lol:

200 quid off a 10 tenner stake so will certainly be putting some insurance money on a draw and perhaps a Fulham win as they're both decent odds.

Was just looking at Leeds price btw as I fancy them to win v Arsenal and Bet365 are pricing them at 2/1, is that the regular price at other online bookies?

Shows how much Arsenal aren't rated much now as you'd have to go back to mid 90s for last time a promoted team was priced that low to beat them. Leeds caused them loads of trouble at Emirates in the cup in January so they'll create plenty of chances and Bamford is in form this time.
I also need Everton to do the job to finish off 2 accas :nervous:
Won't be betting on it but yeah Leeds is a good shout for tommorow, Arsenal are without Partey and ElNeny through injury and covid 19. So it's back to Xhaka Ceballos and Arteta is under pressure to drop Willian and Lacazette. It's going to be a nervy game, Leeds will probably go all out and provoke mistakes.
 

Knux

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
670
Supports
AIK Stockholm
Actually just realised I had a treble of Spurs, Man. United and Everton this weekend so no doubt Fulham will put in their best performance of a decade tomorrow with Mitrovic scoring a hat trick. :lol:

200 quid off a 10 tenner stake so will certainly be putting some insurance money on a draw and perhaps a Fulham win as they're both decent odds.

Was just looking at Leeds price btw as I fancy them to win v Arsenal and Bet365 are pricing them at 2/1, is that the regular price at other online bookies?

Shows how much Arsenal aren't rated much now as you'd have to go back to mid 90s for last time a promoted team was priced that low to beat them. Leeds caused them loads of trouble at Emirates in the cup in January so they'll create plenty of chances and Bamford is in form this time.
Everton win surely, even with the little dip of form recently. But it's Fulham ffs :)

I've seen many people seems to backing Leeds in the betting market recently and I just can't understand why. They play some nice attacking football but are at the same time so vunerable at the back. I had Aston villa at 2/1 against leeds and I literally laughing all the way to the bank. Think final result was 3-1 to Villa.

Some bankers for tomorrow
Leeds - Arsenal BTTS and over 2,5
Leicester- Pool BTTS and over 2,5
@3,80
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
11,950
Supports
Aston Villa
Everton win surely, even with the little dip of form recently. But it's Fulham ffs :)

I've seen many people seems to backing Leeds in the betting market recently and I just can' understand why. They play some nice attacking football but are at the same time so venerable at the back. I had Aston villa at 2/1 against leeds and I literally laughing all the way to the bank. Think final result was 3-1 to Villa.

Some bankers for tomorrow
Leeds - Arsenal BTTS and over 2,5
Leicester- Pool BTTS and over 2,5
@3,80
You mean Palace....we errr lost 3-0 to Leeds. :lol:

Fulham have started getting close to some results, only lost last minute to West Ham who are in better form than Everton and should've got 1-1 with the awful penalty. And only lost 1-2 to Palace so I think it will be tight given Everton have gone back to inconsistant with recent defeats.
 

Knux

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
670
Supports
AIK Stockholm
You mean Palace....we errr lost 3-0 to Leeds. :lol:

Fulham have started getting close to some results, only lost last minute to West Ham who are in better form than Everton and should've got 1-1 with the awful penalty. And only lost 1-2 to Palace so I think it will be tight given Everton have gone back to inconsistant with recent defeats.
Sorry I meant the Palace game. Anyway It was many people on here that was tempted on the Leeds odds but they got schooled in that Palace game. Anyway, I just want to put a warning on Leeds thats all:)

As for the Fulham game, I ageee with you that its a tricky one. Everton had a firing start to the season but they have to play much better to get wins. I cant see Fulham get a win though. A Everton DnB could be the right choice.
 

RedPed

Full Member
Joined
Jun 24, 2015
Messages
9,971
Inter Milan doing what they do best and fecking me over yet again.
 

awop

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Sep 28, 2010
Messages
1,314
Location
Paris
Supports
Arsenal
Inter Milan doing what they do best and fecking me over yet again.
Put a small one on them when it was 2-2. Terrible start but they were still favorites in this *game
 
Last edited:

RedPed

Full Member
Joined
Jun 24, 2015
Messages
9,971
Yeah they scored the two goals straight after I had posted that. Came good in the end.