Football & Sports Betting Thread 2022/2023

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One Night Only

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I like the bet boost for the championship game today, diallo and another lad to each have over 0.5 shots on target at over 2/1
 

Ayush_reddevil

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I know that City are good but seems so weird to have Madrid 5/2 to qualify and 9/2 to win the CL seems even better
 

Berbaclass

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Fancy a little punt on Brighton tonight @ 3.2

City will rotate and Brighton will definitely want to beat them and are strong at home, can imagine a few of the City lads will be below their usual level after the celebrations the other day.
 

Gabriel Djemba-Bebe

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Garnacho to score last and Garnacho to get booked is 146/1. If his late goals vs Fulham and Wolves are anything to go by, he's taking his shirt off when he scores the winner at Wembley :D
 

Grib

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Garnacho to score last and Garnacho to get booked is 146/1. If his late goals vs Fulham and Wolves are anything to go by, he's taking his shirt off when he scores the winner at Wembley :D
Basically losing money not doing this right? :wenger:
 

Chipper

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Keeping an eye on Stoke (13/2) and WBA (5/1) to be promoted next season.

3rd and 4th best performers in the Championship last season on xG +/-. Both defences performed roughly as well as expected but both were wasteful in front of goal. If either signs a good striker or two while not losing midfielders they could be worth a punt.

Despite underperforming on that metric West Brom still collected 1.7 points a game since appointing Carlos Corberan. Across the whole season that would have put them 4th.

I know lots will be tipping Middlesbrough due to what Carrick did there when he took over but they're shorter odds and I think West Brom in particular might be a little under the radar. Depends on signings though, I think they do need a forward.
 

Rozay

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Furious, just lost £3.17k over 1 goal ffs. All I needed was a goal in both halves in one game in Iceland, 3 goals all came in the second. Was two goals by 51 mins too :mad:
 

MC89

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Tues

2.30. Inspiral 15/8 - won fresh when winning the Coronation last year and gets 3lbs from modern games, between the 2 but went Inspiral

4.20. Mostabshir 8/1 - bit of outsider with Chaldean and Paddington but both form on a softer surface and I prefer mostabshir at bigger price and form stands both new business and Ziryab won impressively and mostabshir demolished both take chance on 8/1

Wednesday

Don’t really fancy much on Wednesday probably bet Adayar 4.20, 9/4
 

Spiersey

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On Palmeiras -1.5 v Bolivar in Copa lib next Week @1.75+.

Fair for me is -2.75 @ 1.9.

Palmeiras are the best side in SA still, I can't really explain this line. The only semi logical explanation is based off the reverse game, but it was in La Paz and Palmeiras actually sent reserves because they didn't care about winning the match as they knew they'd still qualify easily. The standard line for a Bolivian side away to a top side is +2.25/+2.5. Strongest were +2.5 away to Fluminense and are currently +2.25 away to River Plate. Palm are better than both. Palm were -2 asian at home to Barca, -1.5 at home to Cerro. Barca were -1 at home to Bolivar and Cerro were -1.5 (They did lose 4-0 to Bolivar somehow, but it was probably the freakiest result of the year) It's a very big gulf, probably the best side in the competition against the worst.

The best part of the bet is that Palm have to win and Bolivar need a draw. Palm are the best counter side in South America, they are brutal on counters and Bolivar are terrible when chasing a game. It's set up perfectly for a 2+ win for Palmeiras. The only way I don't see them winning 2+ is if they didn't take the lead until very late on. Theres a huge advantage to winning the group. You are seeded for the next round (1st plays 2nd's). The winner of this group will be seeded 1st for every round, which means you get the 2nd leg at home in each round until the final. Whoever loses, is seeded 9th due to finishing 2nd, so you'll be away from home 2nd leg most likely. I don't see anyway that Palmeiras don't win, which in my mind, means theres very little chance that they don't win 2+. I think they probably win 3+, but -1.75 asian/-2 is very nice as I think it has a very small chance of losing.
 
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MC89

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Tues

2.30. Inspiral 15/8 - won fresh when winning the Coronation last year and gets 3lbs from modern games, between the 2 but went Inspiral

4.20. Mostabshir 8/1 - bit of outsider with Chaldean and Paddington but both form on a softer surface and I prefer mostabshir at bigger price and form stands both new business and Ziryab won impressively and mostabshir demolished both take chance on 8/1

Wednesday

Don’t really fancy much on Wednesday probably bet Adayar 4.20, 9/4
Really sorry about today, think that’ll be me done till Friday Little Big Bear, really think it’ll win, the forms there with Bradsell in kings stand Little Big Bear Bradsell by over 6L if (when) Little Big Bear wins,bet Covey on Saturday
 

MC89

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Wee bit of Cheltenham news…. Go with care though!! March is a long time away and things can change very easily, Rich Ricci has said Lossiemouth will be campaigned towards the mares hurdle next year and will have a crack at the champion the following year if everything goes to plan, 7/2 right now for the mares, could be the heist of century because if she lines up come March she’ll most definitely likely to be odds on but as I’ve said go with caution….
 

MC89

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Really sorry about today, think that’ll be me done till Friday Little Big Bear, really think it’ll win, the forms there with Bradsell in kings stand Little Big Bear Bradsell by over 6L if (when) Little Big Bear wins,bet Covey on Saturday
Sorry absolutely gutted
 

One Night Only

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Today has been atrocious betting wise for me at Ascot. Not even a place in 4 races.

And Detroit can feck off. Only need him to ride 1 winner today.
 

MC89

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2.05 Newcastle, Golden Rules was 6s now 10/3, would bet it just now if you fancy it. just going by what owner said.
 

André Dominguez

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On Palmeiras -1.5 v Bolivar in Copa lib next Week @1.75+.

Fair for me is -2.75 @ 1.9.

Palmeiras are the best side in SA still, I can't really explain this line. The only semi logical explanation is based off the reverse game, but it was in La Paz and Palmeiras actually sent reserves because they didn't care about winning the match as they knew they'd still qualify easily. The standard line for a Bolivian side away to a top side is +2.25/+2.5. Strongest were +2.5 away to Fluminense and are currently +2.25 away to River Plate. Palm are better than both. Palm were -2 asian at home to Barca, -1.5 at home to Cerro. Barca were -1 at home to Bolivar and Cerro were -1.5 (They did lose 4-0 to Bolivar somehow, but it was probably the freakiest result of the year) It's a very big gulf, probably the best side in the competition against the worst.

The best part of the bet is that Palm have to win and Bolivar need a draw. Palm are the best counter side in South America, they are brutal on counters and Bolivar are terrible when chasing a game. It's set up perfectly for a 2+ win for Palmeiras. The only way I don't see them winning 2+ is if they didn't take the lead until very late on. Theres a huge advantage to winning the group. You are seeded for the next round (1st plays 2nd's). The winner of this group will be seeded 1st for every round, which means you get the 2nd leg at home in each round until the final. Whoever loses, is seeded 9th due to finishing 2nd, so you'll be away from home 2nd leg most likely. I don't see anyway that Palmeiras don't win, which in my mind, means theres very little chance that they don't win 2+. I think they probably win 3+, but -1.75 asian/-2 is very nice as I think it has a very small chance of losing.
Thanks for the terrific tip. I actually did Palmeiras + Flamengo + Corinthinas AH-1.5 @4.60
 

Cascarino

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Caersws to lose their next three games, on dragonbet 55-1 put a tenner on
 

Spiersey

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On Haiti Women +1.5 v China @1.8+
Posted reasoning in the new season betting thread about why Haiti are good, but the performance v England wasn't a freak. They can beat China. The physical difference will be huge. Haiti played South Korea away for a warm up match and were great. Lost 2-1 but was a good performance. I have SK as being a little better than China + this is a neutral, probably make fair line +0.75. Haiti defence can collapse but the pace difference should be a big help in the event that Haiti do get extremely open at 1 down.
 
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Spiersey

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Also on Jamaica +3.5 v France, Under 3.5 in Germany Morocco, and Brazil +0.75 v France.
Jamaica won easily.

I had a treble on Haiti DC, Jamiaca DC and Morocco DC at 7000/1. If Morocco don't lose tomorrow, the retaken penalty for England will have cost me £250k


Reasoning for Germany Morocco unders is that it's a perfect match up for unders on paper. Morocco are very negative but good at parking the bus. Some good results in warm up games mainly 0-0 draws. Germany can't score goals currently and look so poor going forward. Tactically they are a mess. Don't see them scoring 4 goals. No Mssoudy for Morocco either whos a big threat going forward.

Brazil I have favourites v France probably. France are overrated and really miss Katoto. They have nothing in attack really anymore without her, just relying on set pieces. Brazil are pretty strong right now, improved over the last year or so. Market has reacted now after France Jamiaica game, France only small faves now.
 

Cascarino

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I had a treble on Haiti DC, Jamiaca DC and Morocco DC at 7000/1. If Morocco don't lose tomorrow, the retaken penalty for England will have cost me £250k
Bloody hell! Interesting post makes a lot of sense.
 

Spiersey

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Haiti women Tq 25/1 on 365 is value.

Fair price is probably about 10/1. They can beat China I think. If the scorelines go their way on Matchday 2, they’d need a draw against Denmark to qualify on GD. China are 2/1 TQ and they’d almost definitely have to beat Haiti and take points off England to do it. Fair price for them is probably about 8/1 which is where the value for Haiti is created.

Haiti are underrated on outright (they’re probably rated fairly now for the China game, I have China about 1.7/8 fair price for win) The odds haven’t adjusted for outright despite Haiti dropping from a +1.75 handicap to a +0.75.

I tipped a Haiti bet in the other betting threat, I’ve copied it below so you can see logic behind Haiti being good (and to show it’s not a reaction to how good they were v England, as it wasn’t a surprise for me).



Fair price is probably about 1.3 and 1.2 I think. I’ve watched pretty much every Haiti game the last few years. They’re improved loads, they’re so fast and strong, a tough side to play against but their defence is poor. However they are good going forward. Mondesir and Dumornay and both genuinely world class players. Dumornay will probably end up at Barca or Lyon within the next couple of years. It’s huge quality to have going forward. I think they can cause England issues. I’d be pretty surprised if England dominate the game as much that Haiti struggle to get up the pitch to shoot.

Haiti played Portugal last year, they lost 5-0 but were the much better side (as stupid as that sounds). They caused huge issues but the defence can just disappear. They were 6-3 up on corners, 13-8 up on shots. They also played USA and it was a 3-0 loss. They were very impressive in this, held their own. They managed 7 shots that game and won a penalty. They can create attacks against the best sides. They are not the typical minnows who have nothing going forward.

Struggled to think of a comparison with a men’s international side, maybe somewhat similar to Aubameyang with Gabon a few years ago.

Jamaica will be similar, but Bunny Shaw is obviously well known so the odds for her aren’t near as appealing as the Haiti attacker
s
 

Spiersey

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Also on Jamaica +3.5 v France, Under 3.5 in Germany Morocco, and Brazil +0.75 v France.
Unders lost in Germany, Morocco way too naive. Goal difference is huge in this format, need to avoid getting hammered and they’ve just played 4-4-2 and let Germany murder them down the wings. Should have played 5 at the back as every other smaller side has done.
 

One Night Only

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Unders lost in Germany, Morocco way too naive. Goal difference is huge in this format, need to avoid getting hammered and they’ve just played 4-4-2 and let Germany murder them down the wings. Should have played 5 at the back as every other smaller side has done.
2 OGs too :lol:

Some banging tips in this thread the last few days so cheers everyone.
 

Spiersey

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On Arsenal DNB v Barca @1.8+.

I have this as the wrong price if all things were equal and regular circumstances anyway, I'd have Arsenal around -0.5 fair on a neutral. However, it's 4th friendly against 1st, which is a massive difference. Arsenal have been playing games for 2 weeks now and are miles ahead of Barca in terms of fitness and prep.
Also, Barcelona had to cancel their previous friendly with Juventus due to food poisoning, 15 players were sick. It cost the club £2 million, which they can't afford so things had to be bad before they did that. No idea what the current state of these players are, but either way the food poisoning will have disrupted their training and preparation over the last week or so. With Arenal being further ahead, they should probably be playing their first 11 for at least 60 minutes, possibly even longer. Odegaard, Gabriel and Ramsdale all got 90 last game, would expect similar v Barca. Barca will be 11 changes at HT I'd imagine, they have 32 players travelled. They also have Real Madrid 2 days later, I'd imagine that is more their focus. With all this, it's very hard to see Arsenal losing.


Also on Wrexham +1.25 v United @1.8. Think win is good too at 4.75.

Don't understand these prices, it's United u21s + Evans. United opened Evens to win and the odds have dropped massive for no real reason. If this was an EFL Cup game, Wrexham would be about 1.6 to win probably. Wrexham were +1.75 v a much stronger Chelsea side and actually played very well. They were very unlucky to be 2 down at HT, they were the better side but just lost to quality. The u21s doesn't have near the same quality. Wrexham are very physical and the long throw will cause chaos against kids. Wrexham side is probably a league 1 squad and I'd say bar Hugill, most of the United squad would be below that level currenlty. If it was a competive game, I'd have Wrexham favourites, think they can win. The only downside is the fixture being listed as 'Man United v Wrexham'. Teams can often play the name and not the actual opposition players when they play kids.
 
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One Night Only

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On Arsenal DNB v Barca @1.8+.

I have this as the wrong price if all things were equal and regular circumstances anyway, I'd have Arsenal around -0.5 fair on a neutral. However, it's 4th friendly against 1st, which is a massive difference. Arsenal have been playing games for 2 weeks now and are miles ahead of Barca in terms of fitness and prep.
Also, Barcelona had to cancel their previous friendly with Juventus due to food poisoning, 15 players were sick. It cost the club £2 million, which they can't afford so things had to be bad before they did that. No idea what the current state of these players are, but either way the food poisoning will have disrupted their training and preparation over the last week or so. With Arenal being further ahead, they should probably be playing their first 11 for at least 60 minutes, possibly even longer. Odegaard, Gabriel and Ramsdale all got 90 last game, would expect similar v Barca. Barca will be 11 changes at HT I'd imagine, they have 32 players travelled. They also have Real Madrid 2 days later, I'd imagine that is more their focus. With all this, it's very hard to see Arsenal losing.


Also on Wrexham +1.25 v United @1.8. Think win is good too at 4.75.

Don't understand these prices, it's United u21s + Evans. United opened Evens to win and the odds have dropped massive for no real reason. If this was an EFL Cup game, Wrexham would be about 1.6 to win probably. Wrexham were +1.75 v a much stronger Chelsea side and actually played very well. They were very unlucky to be 2 down at HT, they were the better side but just lost to quality. The u21s doesn't have near the same quality. Wrexham are very physical and the long throw will cause chaos against kids. Wrexham side is probably a league 1 squad and I'd say bar Hugill, most of the United squad would be below that level currenlty. If it was a competive game, I'd have Wrexham favourites, think they can win. The only downside is the fixture being listed as 'Man United v Wrexham'. Teams can often play the name and not the actual opposition players when they play kids.
That arsenal bet looks great
 

Spiersey

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On Arsenal DNB v Barca @1.8+.

I have this as the wrong price if all things were equal and regular circumstances anyway, I'd have Arsenal around -0.5 fair on a neutral. However, it's 4th friendly against 1st, which is a massive difference. Arsenal have been playing games for 2 weeks now and are miles ahead of Barca in terms of fitness and prep.
Also, Barcelona had to cancel their previous friendly with Juventus due to food poisoning, 15 players were sick. It cost the club £2 million, which they can't afford so things had to be bad before they did that. No idea what the current state of these players are, but either way the food poisoning will have disrupted their training and preparation over the last week or so. With Arenal being further ahead, they should probably be playing their first 11 for at least 60 minutes, possibly even longer. Odegaard, Gabriel and Ramsdale all got 90 last game, would expect similar v Barca. Barca will be 11 changes at HT I'd imagine, they have 32 players travelled. They also have Real Madrid 2 days later, I'd imagine that is more their focus. With all this, it's very hard to see Arsenal losing.


Also on Wrexham +1.25 v United @1.8. Think win is good too at 4.75.

Don't understand these prices, it's United u21s + Evans. United opened Evens to win and the odds have dropped massive for no real reason. If this was an EFL Cup game, Wrexham would be about 1.6 to win probably. Wrexham were +1.75 v a much stronger Chelsea side and actually played very well. They were very unlucky to be 2 down at HT, they were the better side but just lost to quality. The u21s doesn't have near the same quality. Wrexham are very physical and the long throw will cause chaos against kids. Wrexham side is probably a league 1 squad and I'd say bar Hugill, most of the United squad would be below that level currenlty. If it was a competive game, I'd have Wrexham favourites, think they can win. The only downside is the fixture being listed as 'Man United v Wrexham'. Teams can often play the name and not the actual opposition players when they play kids.
Wrexham won 3-1. Mental odds, kids just can’t deal with the physicality. Scored the 2nd from long throw.

Spurs game will be funny later. They play Lion City Sailors. I’ve watched all their games this season, they’re one of the worst sides defensively I’ve seen. It can be a huge score, like 10-1 or something if Spurs care. Dortmund reserves and kids from 7-2 earlier this year, LCS defence is much worse since then too and Spurs side way stronger. No tip, but should be a fun watch.
 
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