France's Presidential elections April 2022

Pintu

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The election is decided in two rounds. The two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round on April 10 will then meet in a decisive duel on April 24.

For a long time, it seemed like the only question was which candidate will lose the run-off to Macron, but this might become a thriller. The incumbent is still the favorite but his lead has been shrinking.

The first-round polls. Macron outperforms his 2017 score, and Pecresse clearly underperforms the conservative vote of 2017, I'm not sure what that's about. Mélenchon got a very high score in 2017, I think the communists (PCF) having their own candidate is bad for him.



The run-off polls. Here's the big change, I don't think MLP has ever polled this high.
 

Pintu

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I am not sure how accurate this is. But from it, I'd tend to consider Macron and Pecresse as the only "safe" candidates for Europe, right now.

 

Rajma

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France is in a dark place if Le Pen stands a real chance of winning despite the recent events.
 

Pintu

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Horseshoe theory proving to be true with French right and left.
I doubt they have much similarities when it comes to internal policy.
If I'm not mistaken Le Pen and Melenchon have very different policies on security, environment, women's rights, LGBT rights, and stuff like that... But they have somewhat similar views on the economy. Taxations. Labor and Pensions.


In 2017 after they lost the first round, Melenchon's LFI had an internal vote to decide what to do in the run-off. And they didn't put MLP among the choices. 2 thirds weren't interested and 1 third wanted to vote for Macron. The voters themselves were more decisive and 52 % of them chose Macron.

The internal consultation.

The actual break out. Melenchon's voters actually gave Macron a clear win. only 7% voted for MLP.

 

maniak

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So basically MLP has no chance in a second round.
 

Pintu

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So basically MLP has no chance in a second round.
According to the polls, she does stand a chance. In 2017 she didn't.

This time she is perceived to be "less extreme", thanks in part to Zemmour being worse than her, and to the traditional conservative LR being closer to her on immigration & security. She made a U-turn on Europe and no longer advocates ditching the currency or calling a referendum on leaving the Union.
 

maniak

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According to the polls, she does stand a chance. In 2017 she didn't.

This time she is perceived to be "less extreme", thanks in part to Zemmour being worse than her, and to the traditional conservative LR being closer to her on immigration & security. She made a U-turn on Europe and no longer advocates ditching the currency or calling a referendum on leaving the Union.
Don't the majority of other candidates reject her? Logically their voters would go for Macron, no?

In any case, the fact she's even in contention is pretty scary.
 

Pintu

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Don't the majority of other candidates reject her? Logically their voters would go for Macron, no?

In any case, the fact she's even in contention is pretty scary.
Not if the voters are rejecting Macron just as much... After Brexit and Trump, we've learned not to underestimate populism.

Some of the french residents here might give us more insight into her real chances. @JPRouve

But this poll looks too close to dismiss totally.
 

TwoSheds

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I think they're all probably cnuts but Macron and Mélenchon best of a bad bunch?
 

Paul the Wolf

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Macron should win quite easily. Guessing a similar margin to last time.

Relating it to British politics. Macron's opponents being

Le Pen - trying to be more mainstream, no longer wanting to leave the EU as the UK has shown it's insane but further behind Macron than last time and now left of the current Tories in the UK. Still as thick as sh!t. Probably in the run-off against Macron.
Mélenchon - Corbyn with personality but just as much of a twat.
Zemmour - racist and xenophobe. Priti Patel clone dressed as Nosferatu - Jewish Arab, parents from Algeria - ex-French département - trying to prove he's more French than the French
Pécresse - Tory, hopeless dislikeable woman

The rest have no hope. Hidalgo (Socialists/Labour) have disintegrated. Dupont-Aignan is Farage's mate so say no more.
 

Revan

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I think they're all probably cnuts but Macron and Mélenchon best of a bad bunch?
Melenchon is just as a cnut as MLP and Zemmour. Just that he is Extreme left instead of extreme right, it does not make him less of a cnut.

In any case, he is as dangerous as the two right wing nutters. Anti-EU, anti-NATO, anti-German, anti-US, pro-Russian bot.
 

Simbo

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Jesus, how is Le Pen that close? Same tactics as Farage/BJ?
 

TwoSheds

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Melenchon is just as a cnut as MLP and Zemmour. Just that he is Extreme left instead of extreme right, it does not make him less of a cnut.

In any case, he is as dangerous as the two right wing nutters. Anti-EU, anti-NATO, anti-German, anti-US, pro-Russian bot.
Wanting to address climate change rather than make it worse definitely makes someone less dangerous and less of a cnut than someone who doesn't in my book. But yes, perhaps I should have just said Macron is the best of a bad bunch. In previous decades dissenting voices were arguably what was needed to overcome the groupthink in world leadership (carbon bubble, financial crisis, inequality etc) but I suppose with all that's going on in the world, someone relatively stable is about as good as we can hope for.
 

coolredwine

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According to the polls, she does stand a chance. In 2017 she didn't.

This time she is perceived to be "less extreme", thanks in part to Zemmour being worse than her, and to the traditional conservative LR being closer to her on immigration & security. She made a U-turn on Europe and no longer advocates ditching the currency or calling a referendum on leaving the Union.
She had a better chance in 2017 compared to now. Macron was an unknown. Now, the right votes are divided between her, Pecresse and EZ while she has done nothing much to stake a legit claim, except maybe reverse her rhetoric from 2017.
 

DOTA

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I imagine I'd vote for Melenchon but Macron does a lot of stupid shit that's quite funny, so as a foreigner looking on I'd personally enjoy a bit more of that.
 

DOTA

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Also this.

 

Mciahel Goodman

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I imagine I'd vote for Melenchon but Macron does a lot of stupid shit that's quite funny, so as a foreigner looking on I'd personally enjoy a bit more of that.
Yeah, Melenchon would definitely get my vote.
 

Pintu

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She had a better chance in 2017 compared to now. Macron was an unknown. Now, the right votes are divided between her, Pecresse and EZ while she has done nothing much to stake a legit claim, except maybe reverse her rhetoric from 2017.
Macron was an important minister in Holland’s social-democratic government. And he represented the alliance of the center-right with the center-left. And being relatively new to politics played to his advantage. People often wants new figures.

Going by the polls in 2017, Le Pen always had somewhere under 40% in the weeks leading to the Election Day. That’s at least a 20 points lead for Macron. He ended up winning wi the a landslide 66-33.

Now the polls are suggesting a much closer battle.
 

VorZakone

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Reading Melenchon's wiki...he comes across as a bit of a nutter.
 

Berbasbullet

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I was in Paris the other day and there was a rally for the far right candidate. Tons of french flags and I could hear them from up the Eiffell Tower.
 

Berbasbullet

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Stayed away from the Caf for six months. Making a brief reappearance.

Macron should win quite easily. Guessing a similar margin to last time.

Relating it to British politics. Macron's opponents being

Le Pen - trying to be more mainstream, no longer wanting to leave the EU as the UK has shown it's insane but further behind Macron than last time and now left of the current Tories in the UK. Still as thick as sh!t. Probably in the run-off against Macron.
Mélenchon - Corbyn with personality but just as much of a twat.
Zemmour - racist and xenophobe. Priti Patel clone dressed as Nosferatu - Jewish Arab, parents from Algeria - ex-French département - trying to prove he's more French than the French
Pécresse - Tory, hopeless dislikeable woman

The rest have no hope. Hidalgo (Socialists/Labour) have disintegrated. Dupont-Aignan is Farage's mate so say no more.
Great to see you mate.
 

Pintu

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Anarchist far-left candidate Philippe Poutou guested the national tv last night.

At the end of his intervention, as they prepare to welcome the far-right candidate Zemmour.

TV host: Eric Zemmour, who's preparing behind the scenes will talk to us after...
Philippe Poutou : You're talking about the racist fascist charged with sexual assault?
TV host: I'm talking about Eric Zemmour who comes right now...

 

SmashedHombre

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This would be a bad time for anyone but Macron to win. MLP is so deep in Putin's pocket her victory would be a nightmare
 

RoyH1

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This would be a bad time for anyone but Macron to win. MLP is so deep in Putin's pocket her victory would be a nightmare
Any of the others would absolutely be a nightmare too to be honest. France is so central to the EU project that the whole thing might not work if France has a president undermining it. Just look at how space Orban fills and that's "just" Hungary.

What the heck happened to the Socialists? Those poll numbers are crazy. Is Hidalgo that bad of a candidate?
 

Pintu

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What the heck happened to the Socialists? Those poll numbers are crazy. Is Hidalgo that bad of a candidate?
Hollande's failed mandate happened to them. They went from the presidency and having their own Parliament majority in 2012-17 to becoming totally irrelevant on the national stage in 2017, this is just the continuity of that process. Their left-leaning part went to Melenchon and their right-leaning part went to Macron.

But I think she shot herself in the foot with responses like this here.

"When the socialist mayor of the largest city in France tackles the socialist mayor of the second-largest city in France. Or more exactly when the mayor of Paris questions the legitimacy of the mayor of Marseille. Incredible! The unworthiness of this answer…"


After Marseille's mayor called for the left to gather behind one candidacy.



Funny thing, her party seems to be quite successful in local elections, or they wouldn't be ruling so many big cities.
 

JPRouve

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Hollande's failed mandate happened to them. They went from the presidency and having their own Parliament majority in 2012-17 to becoming totally irrelevant on the national stage in 2017, this is just the continuity of that process. Their left-leaning part went to Melenchon and their right-leaning part went to Macron.

But I think she shot herself in the foot with responses like this here.

"When the socialist mayor of the largest city in France tackles the socialist mayor of the second-largest city in France. Or more exactly when the mayor of Paris questions the legitimacy of the mayor of Marseille. Incredible! The unworthiness of this answer…"


After Marseille's mayor called for the left to gather behind one candidacy.



Funny thing, her party seems to be quite successful in local elections, or they wouldn't be ruling so many big cities.
It's not really what happened, the party was already going down for a while. Hollande wasn't even supposed to be their candidate, it was supposed to be Strauss-Kahn or Aubry but for different reasons they disqualified themselves. Now in 2012 France was still mainly divided between PS and UMP, since the majority was going to vote against Sarkozy the only option was whoever is the PS candidate but it shouldn't be understood as a support for the PS or Hollande it was a vote against Sarkozy. In 2017 Macron emerged which gave people the opportunity to get rid of both the PS and UMP.
 

Pintu

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It's not really what happened, the party was already going down for a while. Hollande wasn't even supposed to be their candidate, it was supposed to be Strauss-Kahn or Aubry but for different reasons they disqualified themselves. Now in 2012 France was still mainly divided between PS and UMP, since the majority was going to vote against Sarkozy the only option was whoever is the PS candidate but it shouldn't be understood as a support for the PS or Hollande it was a vote against Sarkozy.
Ok. I never heard this part... But whatever the reasons, you still gave them a clear mandate. Both the presidency and the absolute majority in the parliament in 2012. One would have to guess that if they had done a better job then Hollande, or his PM who tried to run (can't remember his name), would have been able to give Macron and the others a real fight in 2017 and the party wouldn't crash in the legislative elections the way it did in 2017 (from cirka 300 to barely 30 MPs).


In 2017 Macron emerged which gave people the opportunity to get rid of both the PS and UMP.
Ok. This is interesting, I was under the impression Macron was mainly the alliance of the center-right (Bayrou == Libdem) with the center-left (the less socialist part of the PS), but you are suggesting he is also replacing the "Torys". I thought the conservative party (UMP or LR as it is called now) was still strong in France, controlling the Senate and still caple of winning most local elections (remark, the latter also applies to the PS in some big municipalities).
 

JPRouve

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Ok. I never heard this part... But whatever the reasons, you still gave them a clear mandate. Both the presidency and the absolute majority in the parliament in 2012. One would have to guess that if they had done a better job then Hollande, or his PM who tried to run (can't remember his name), would have been able to give Macron and the others a real fight in 2017 and the party wouldn't crash in the legislative elections the way it did in 2017 (from cirka 300 to barely 30 MPs).




Ok. This is interesting, I was under the impression Macron was mainly the alliance of the center-right (Bayrou == Libdem) with the center-left (the less socialist part of the PS), but you are suggesting he is also replacing the "Torys". I thought the conservative party (UMP or LR as it is called now) was still strong in France, controlling the Senate and still caple of winning most local elections (remark, the latter also applies to the PS in some big municipalities).
No PS are a terrible party that was dead years prior to that, the only reason they had a chance in 2012 was because Sarkozy is generally despised and even though France is historically a right/center right country people were willing to either not vote or elect someone that wasn't too bad in order to get rid of Sarkozy.

And the party was always going to crash for two reasons, first because french electors tend to give the majority to the government and the PS serves no purpose nationally. As for Macron he is from center left to center right which means that on paper he takes electors from both the PS and UMP(now LR). Modem(Bayrou) isn't the main center right party, it's the UDF. And LREM are their own party, they aren't really an alliance in fact it's mainly every other older parties being against them.
 

Pexbo

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Le Pen getting in now would have devastating consequences for Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
 

Mb194dc

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Hopefully Melenchon makes the second round.

We will see.
 

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Who’s gonna win? The right wing candidate or the far right candidate? We will find out. Exciting.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Although Le Pen is increasing her poll rating in the first round, she is only taking Zemmour's intended voters. Zemmour's campaign is collapsing. Thus the split for far right has stayed almost the same almost all the way through polling. With about one third of the intended votes shared beween MLP EZ and NDA.

Some Pécresse voters may vote for a right wing candidate in round 2 but few of the others.

Mélenchon has increased his poll but unless he gets through to round 2 most of his followers will vote Macron in round 2.

Five years ago Le Pen was ahead of Macron in the first round polls.

Went for 63% Macron last time and he won more easily.

This time I'm going 60% Macron 40% Le Pen which means Macron will hopefully get 62/63%.
 

Pintu

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Five years ago Le Pen was ahead of Macron in the first round polls.

Went for 63% Macron last time and he won more easily.

This time I'm going 60% Macron 40% Le Pen which means Macron will hopefully get 62/63%.
I hope you're right, but you are sounding very optimistic. Macron hasn't polled over 60 since March 20th. The trend is favouring MLP.

And these polls are suggesting that 24 % of Melenchon's voters would vote for Le Pen in the second round, compared to only 7 % of them in 2017. And among Pecresse's votes, it's almost a 50/50 share.