Geopolitics

Carolina Red

Moderator
Staff
Joined
Nov 7, 2015
Messages
36,379
Location
South Carolina
i understand ukrainians not being able to do it. that makes absolute sense when you're literally at war with russia. but the weird part is them listing americans and other nationalities on the same index seeing as it's funded by the us taxpayer. don't see it being enforceable in any sense just don't see the point of it or what sense it makes in general. could just be a who's who of people they want everyone to double guess when getting news.
I’d say for foreigners that’s very likely the case.
 

TMDaines

Fun sponge.
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
13,977
It’s an opinion piece.
He’s not a guest columnist though. He’s on the payroll. He’s at it again today. The paper surely needs to consider cutting ties. I’m very close to stopping reading it.

 

FireballXL5

Full Member
Joined
May 9, 2015
Messages
10,080
He’s not a guest columnist though. He’s on the payroll. He’s at it again today. The paper surely needs to consider cutting ties. I’m very close to stopping reading it.

I stopped reading him ages ago. He should be writing for the Express.
 

TMDaines

Fun sponge.
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
13,977
You don’t have to be to write an opinion piece. Ex) Editorials
I'm wondering if this is a cultural difference between the UK and the US. Generally speaking in the UK, regular columnists employed by a paper, even when writing in their own name, are seen as representative of the paper.
 

Carolina Red

Moderator
Staff
Joined
Nov 7, 2015
Messages
36,379
Location
South Carolina
I'm wondering if this is a cultural difference between the UK and the US. Generally speaking in the UK, regular columnists employed by a paper, even when writing in their own name, are seen as representative of the paper.
Quite possibly. Over here if something is written in the Opinion or Editorial sections, it’s under the understanding that it represents the author. Makes me wonder though why the heck even bother with an Opinion section of your paper / website if it isn’t viewed as just that :lol:
 

MadMike

Full Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2015
Messages
11,609
Location
London
I'm wondering if this is a cultural difference between the UK and the US. Generally speaking in the UK, regular columnists employed by a paper, even when writing in their own name, are seen as representative of the paper.
I take it a step further. Any opinion piece published on a newspaper is passing editorial check. Which means the opinions expressed in the piece are deemed at least acceptable and maybe even enjoy some support among the editorial team or the readership. Hence they are getting published. That's regardless of whether the writer is on the payroll or not.

Like you wouldn't ever find opinion pieces blaming poor people or immigrants on the Guardian, like you would on the Telegraph. But you will find opinion pieces blaming the West/NATO for everything and whitewashing criminal/genocidal behaviour of ex-Socialist countries. The latter behaviour is de rigeur among some on the left.
 

Gehrman

Phallic connoisseur, unlike shamans
Joined
Feb 20, 2019
Messages
11,120
I take it a step further. Any opinion piece published on a newspaper is passing editorial check. Which means the opinions expressed in the piece are deemed at least acceptable and maybe even enjoy some support among the editorial team or the readership. Hence they are getting published. That's regardless of whether the writer is on the payroll or not.

Like you wouldn't ever find opinion pieces blaming poor people or immigrants on the Guardian, like you would on the Telegraph. But you will find opinion pieces blaming the West/NATO for everything and whitewashing criminal/genocidal behaviour of ex-Socialist countries. The latter behaviour is de rigeur among some on the left.
The guardian used to have a kgb agent on their staff Richard Gott.
 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,387
i think jenkins is basically correct. what's he really saying? that russia and china are revisionist powers that are redrawing their historical borders through war. that's obviously true of russia in ukraine. would be true of china in taiwan. the counterpoint he makes is that we have intervened globally in areas we have no ties to. the idea of remaking the world in the western liberalist image which has clearly failed. i don't think he's saying russia was or is right to do what it's doing or that china would be right to invade taiwan. seems more like he's saying there's a difference between sending military aid and economic aid to ukraine so it can defend itself, which he seems to support, and declaring war against russia or china which i don't think anyone supports.

in the old article he's talking about the cost of living crisis fueled as he sees it by the russian ukrainian invasion and how you might send arms to ukraine without sanctioning russian energy if sanctioning russian energy means crippling your own economies. it isn't a thought-crime to make that argument even if you can make valid counter-arguments as to why you should sanction russia. takeaway from those articles for me is he says russia has criminally invaded ukraine to redraw its boundaries and we should support ukraine with military and economic assistance but should be cautious about sanctioning them when it leads to internal problems that could easily prove counterproductive. and that you can do the military and economic aid without walking into unintentional redlines that trigger much larger wars. i think that's a reasonable argument that most would agree with even if you think it's the wrong way of putting it or that he's framing it in such a way as to be provocative which is possible.

the one flaw in the latest article is where he says that the us/uk or general military of the west has not engaged in protective warfare. the arming of ukraine could be classified as exactly that. i've never thought russia had ambitions beyond ukraine because it would lead to direct nato conflict but if you take a different view then you can make the argument that arming ukraine says to russia "revision is not the way forward". basically that it's a counter measure designed for eu security. which is an argument he misses. other than that i'd say he has it about right.
 
Last edited:

NicolaSacco

Full Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
2,315
Supports
Ipswich
i think jenkins is basically correct. what's he really saying? that russia and china are revisionist powers that are redrawing their historical borders through war. that's obviously true of russia in ukraine. would be true of china in taiwan. the counterpoint he makes is that we have intervened globally in areas we have no ties to. the idea of remaking the world in the western liberalist image which has clearly failed. i don't think he's saying russia was or is right to do what it's doing or that china would be right to invade taiwan. seems more like he's saying there's a difference between sending military aid and economic aid to ukraine so it can defend itself, which he seems to support, and declaring war against russia or china which i don't think anyone supports.

in the old article he's talking about the cost of living crisis fueled as he sees it by the russian ukrainian invasion and how you might send arms to ukraine without sanctioning russian energy if sanctioning russian energy means crippling your own economies. it isn't a thought-crime to make that argument even if you can make valid counter-arguments as to why you should sanction russia. takeaway from those articles for me is he says russia has criminally invaded ukraine to redraw its boundaries and we should support ukraine with military and economic assistance but should be cautious about sanctioning them when it leads to internal problems that could easily prove counterproductive. and that you can do the military and economic aid without walking into unintentional redlines that trigger much larger wars. i think that's a reasonable argument that most would agree with even if you think it's the wrong way of putting it or that he's framing it in such a way as to be provocative which is possible.

the one flaw in the latest article is where he says that the us/uk or general military of the west has not engaged in protective warfare. the arming of ukraine could be classified as exactly that. i've never thought russia had ambitions beyond ukraine because it would lead to direct nato conflict but if you take a different view then you can make the argument that arming ukraine says to russia "revision is not the way forward". basically that it's a counter measure designed for eu security. which is an argument he misses. other than that i'd say he has it about right.
I think the West has overstretched and certainly will think twice about imposing a western style idealist democracy on another Middle Eastern country for example. But to say it has ‘clearly failed’ is selective reasoning. Look back to Eastern Europe within the last 35 years and you’ll see tens, possibly hundreds of millions of people living under democratic governments (despite their obvious flaws). Europe has one dictator today, when I was born it probably had 10. That’s progress. I’d add to that Japan after their defeat in 1945.
 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,387
I think the West has overstretched and certainly will think twice about imposing a western style idealist democracy on another Middle Eastern country for example. But to say it has ‘clearly failed’ is selective reasoning. Look back to Eastern Europe within the last 35 years and you’ll see tens, possibly hundreds of millions of people living under democratic governments (despite their obvious flaws). Europe has one dictator today, when I was born it probably had 10. That’s progress. I’d add to that Japan after their defeat in 1945.
yeah but the collapse of the soviet union was as much due to internal risings as anything else. the us didn't install those regimes. it gave them economic trading status along the way but that's not the same as invading the middle east to bring "freedom" or "democracy". yugoslavia is one example which is highly controversial but might fit your description. other than that all military interventions since 91 have basically been disasters and that's what jenkins means. the liberal new world order that took shape after the soviet union fell and the us went around acting unilaterally as sole superpower.
 

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
32,889
I will pop this thread here in case anyone wants to continue the discussion

When you read the full thread...it doesn't seem that bad? I thought it was gonna be worse based on the first tweet. The rest of the thread acknowledges the difficulties of Amnesty's work and doesn't imply a more malicious agenda behind releasing the report.
 

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
32,889
I was wondering...what do you guys predict the EU's role will be in a multi-polar order?

The EU has a population of about 450M and a GDP of almost 18 trillion.

When you have numbers like that, one would expect the EU to be a serious geopolitical player next to the US and China. But are they?
 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,387
I was wondering...what do you guys predict the EU's role will be in a multi-polar order?

The EU has a population of about 450M and a GDP of almost 18 trillion.

When you have numbers like that, one would expect the EU to be a serious geopolitical player next to the US and China. But are they?
depends on two things imo. russia and turkey. those two are the borders between europe and asia. erdogan is playing it smart. member of nato but trading with russia and trying to stay neutral. and because of its position there's nothing you can do about it. the west needs turkey more than the other way around at this point. the future will be land corridors in eurasia. trade doesn't flow freely into europe that way unless russia or turkey facilitate the corridors. on paper the eurasian land mass is far and away the world's greatest centre of trade leaving only the american island disconnected. that will only increase with china's bri which russia and turkey and some european states have already signed up to. the interesting thing to watch here is the increasingly less potent role the suez canal will have as shipping gives way to mega rail highways which cut right through the entire eurasian mass. the us is trying to counter that with its own initiative in africa and the middle east but remains to be seen. i doubt they can compete for the reason that they're remote in real terms.

Washington can only seethe

Without doubt, this development has far-reaching geopolitical implications.

There is already consternation in western capitals. The west finds Erdogan difficult to live with, but at the same time, it also finds it impossible to live without Turkiye.

While Erdogan’s diplomacy may be disruptive and unpredictable, there is also sneaking admiration over Turkiye’s tight connections regionally which create political heft, as the recent grain deal shows.

Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO and president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, has written in Politico that Erdogan is both a villain and a hero whose “presidency has taken Turkey’s offenses to an entirely new level,” but the country’s strategic importance to NATO is nonetheless clear. “In other words, Turkey’s an ally that’s increasingly difficult to live with and nearly impossible to live without.”

Of course, for the western alliance, the unkindest cut of all has been Erdogan’s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia. Ironically, that is now giving a crucial lifeline to beleaguered Russia while also promising for Erdogan a springboard to rejuvenate his country’s economy and secure himself a renewed mandate in 2023.

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/14036
the non western world's biggest complaint about europe has been that it has the population, the economy, but no real geopolitical autonomy. the iranians got tired of hearing europe say the right things but basically follow american directions on the nuclear deal. germany is increasing its military budget as are other eu states. in the short term you'd say that looks good for transatlantic cooperation but in the longterm you have to wonder how content newly militarized german and french led europe will be to take orders. the other thing is that europe doesn't have much in the way of raw commodities. russia has a lot as does africa and some other states like the kazakh region. before the war happened people said the natural alliance is for russian commodities to fuel european finance and technology. i'd say that's still true but only if or when they can bring an end to the war in the ukraine. so up in the air.

The War of Economic Corridors is now proceeding full speed ahead, with the game-changing first cargo flow of goods from Russia to India via the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) already in effect.

Very few, both in the east and west, are aware of how this actually has long been in the making: the Russia-Iran-India agreement for implementing a shorter and cheaper Eurasian trade route via the Caspian Sea (compared to the Suez Canal), was first signed in 2000, in the pre-9/11 era.

The INSTC in full operational mode signals a powerful hallmark of Eurasian integration – alongside the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and last but not least, what I described as “Pipelineistan” two decades ago.


Caspian is key

Let’s have a first look on how these vectors are interacting.

The genesis of the current acceleration lies in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Ashgabat, Turkmenistan’s capital, for the 6th Caspian Summit. This event not only brought the evolving Russia-Iran strategic partnership to a deeper level, but crucially, all five Caspian Sea littoral states agreed that no NATO warships or bases will be allowed on site.

That essentially configures the Caspian as a virtual Russian lake, and in a minor sense, Iranian – without compromising the interests of the three “stans,” Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. For all practical purposes, Moscow has tightened its grip on Central Asia a notch.

As the Caspian Sea is connected to the Black Sea by canals off the Volga built by the former USSR, Moscow can always count on a reserve navy of small vessels – invariably equipped with powerful missiles – that may be transferred to the Black Sea in no time if necessary.

Stronger trade and financial links with Iran now proceed in tandem with binding the three “stans” to the Russian matrix. Gas-rich republic Turkmenistan for its part has been historically idiosyncratic – apart from committing most of its exports to China.

Under an arguably more pragmatic young new leader, President Serdar Berdimuhamedow, Ashgabat may eventually opt to become a member of the SCO and/or the EAEU.

Caspian littoral state Azerbaijan on the other hand presents a complex case: an oil and gas producer eyed by the European Union (EU) to become an alternative energy supplier to Russia – although this is not happening anytime soon.


The West Asia connection

Iran’s foreign policy under President Ebrahim Raisi is clearly on a Eurasian and Global South trajectory. Tehran will be formally incorporated into the SCO as a full member in the upcoming summit in Samarkand in September, while its formal application to join the BRICS has been filed.

Purnima Anand, head of the BRICS International Forum, has stated that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are also very much keen on joining BRICS. Should that happen, by 2024 we could be on our way to a powerful West Asia, North Africa hub firmly installed inside one of the key institutions of the multipolar world.

As Putin heads to Tehran next week for trilateral Russia, Iran, Turkey talks, ostensibly about Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is bound to bring up the subject of BRICS.

Tehran is operating on two parallel vectors. In the event the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is revived – a quite dim possibility as it stands, considering the latest shenanigans in Vienna and Doha – that would represent a tactical victory. Yet moving towards Eurasia is on a whole new strategic level.

full article https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/13087
 
Last edited:

hasanejaz88

Full Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2017
Messages
5,909
Location
Munich
Supports
Germany
small price to pay for joining the official league of civilisation
https://sparkchronicles.com/sweden-...-zinar-bozkurt-will-be-handed-over-to-turkey/
Why are they bolding 'homosexuality'? Homosexuality is legal in Turkey, he isn't going to be persecuted because of that. Not saying Turkey isn't going to do bad things to him though given he is part of the Kurdish movement, but yea bolding homosexuality is just a stupid stereotype that because Turkey is a Muslim majority country homosexuality is illegal.
 

maniak

Full Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2004
Messages
9,940
Location
Lisboa
Supports
Arsenal
Why are they bolding 'homosexuality'? Homosexuality is legal in Turkey, he isn't going to be persecuted because of that. Not saying Turkey isn't going to do bad things to him though given he is part of the Kurdish movement, but yea bolding homosexuality is just a stupid stereotype that because Turkey is a Muslim majority country homosexuality is illegal.
International organizations have highlighted Turkey's poor treatment of the LGBTQI+ community for years. Just a month ago there were mass arrests at a gay pride parade in Istanbul, including reporters covering the event. The country regularly ranks in the bottom positions in reports about LGBTQI+ rights in european countries. Government officials, including ministers, regularly demonize this community. It's hardly a stretch to suggest his sexuality will play a part on how he will be treated.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,158
Location
Hollywood CA
Why are they bolding 'homosexuality'? Homosexuality is legal in Turkey, he isn't going to be persecuted because of that. Not saying Turkey isn't going to do bad things to him though given he is part of the Kurdish movement, but yea bolding homosexuality is just a stupid stereotype that because Turkey is a Muslim majority country homosexuality is illegal.
One would imagine there's a huge difference between it being legal and it being tolerated by the public and social norms.
 

hasanejaz88

Full Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2017
Messages
5,909
Location
Munich
Supports
Germany
While sadly Turkey is losing it's secular values slowly under Erdogan, I don't think the person being sent to Turkey would have anything to do with him being gay. The people who were arrested during the parade is because technically the gay parade has been banned, unfortunately.
 

berbatrick

Renaissance Man
Scout
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
21,627
One would imagine there's a huge difference between it being legal and it being tolerated by the public and social norms.
Tbf I think the article may be overreaching - I remember seeing a few gay flags when I visited Istanbul about 10 years ago. Maybe things have changed and of course prison will be a million times worse than whatever fashionable area that was.

e - answered with some actual knowledge above
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,158
Location
Hollywood CA
I was wondering...what do you guys predict the EU's role will be in a multi-polar order?

The EU has a population of about 450M and a GDP of almost 18 trillion.

When you have numbers like that, one would expect the EU to be a serious geopolitical player next to the US and China. But are they?
It won't have much of a role because its not a country. The main players in the EU (Germany etc) will have a bigger role than the EU itself.
 

Foxbatt

New Member
Joined
Oct 21, 2013
Messages
14,297
depends on two things imo. russia and turkey. those two are the borders between europe and asia. erdogan is playing it smart. member of nato but trading with russia and trying to stay neutral. and because of its position there's nothing you can do about it. the west needs turkey more than the other way around at this point. the future will be land corridors in eurasia. trade doesn't flow freely into europe that way unless russia or turkey facilitate the corridors. on paper the eurasian land mass is far and away the world's greatest centre of trade leaving only the american island disconnected. that will only increase with china's bri which russia and turkey and some european states have already signed up to. the interesting thing to watch here is the increasingly less potent role the suez canal will have as shipping gives way to mega rail highways which cut right through the entire eurasian mass. the us is trying to counter that with its own initiative in africa and the middle east but remains to be seen. i doubt they can compete for the reason that they're remote in real terms.



the non western world's biggest complaint about europe has been that it has the population, the economy, but no real geopolitical autonomy. the iranians got tired of hearing europe say the right things but basically follow american directions on the nuclear deal. germany is increasing its military budget as are other eu states. in the short term you'd say that looks good for transatlantic cooperation but in the longterm you have to wonder how content newly militarized german and french led europe will be to take orders. the other thing is that europe doesn't have much in the way of raw commodities. russia has a lot as does africa and some other states like the kazakh region. before the war happened people said the natural alliance is for russian commodities to fuel european finance and technology. i'd say that's still true but only if or when they can bring an end to the war in the ukraine. so up in the air.




full article https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/13087
I don't have time for the Modi government but Dr. Jaishankar was spot on his opinion on Europe.
 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,387
I don't have time for the Modi government but Dr. Jaishankar was spot on his opinion on Europe.
it's an anglo-american thing and european, too, but the europeans are typically better educated on the world beyond the anglo-sphere. we generally don't pay attention to countries beyond the "west" and when we do it's usually through very propagandized eyes. not that other countries don't have the same problem in reverse but there has been a western exceptionalism which has predominated for centuries if we're being honest. after european hegemony came american hegemony. the rules of the game are changing. the rest of the world is not what it was. it cannot just be dismissed as land with people to be exploited for cheap labour and cheap resources. the loose brics formation has a higher gdp in ppp terms than the g7. in fact, purely in ppp terms, china and india alone are equal to europe and north america combined. this isn't the only metric that counts as wealth disparities and developmental inequalities, especially within india compared with china, also matter. but overall we're in an era of multipolarity and it's only really getting going. that's one enormous issue which the west has not faced in centuries. there was no "west" the last time this kind of thing was in the offing, not as we know it today anyway. the rise of the ottoman empire and toward its end the rise of japan and the emergence of china. that still doesn't come close to where we are now, though. vast amounts of land and people remained to be exploted even then. not true today.

added to that is the economic transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. this is the new mode of production which is being born as we speak and the teething problems of which can be seen everywhere. the new system does not typically come about unproblematically.

but yes, europe in particular is and has been a kind of running joke. it has the economic might but it is subservient to american dominance which it sees as protecting its own interests in various aspects. that is true, too, in limited cases. the problem with an overreliance on america to do the military lifting is that you cannot then stand as a properly independent bloc in negotiations. and that is where the joke comes in. it's why iran lost all patience with europe, though there seems to be better news coming out of that story recently and why, whatever you think of putin, monster or whatever, russia doesn't direct its negotiating positions and counter demands to europe but directly to washington. it knows europe has no real say in this when it comes to military matters. europe knows it, too. the alternative is kind of what we're seeing already. if the germans and the rest really do go ahead and start spending tens of billions on military budgets, it's only a matter of time thereafter until europe, as bloc, has less need of nato. it will remain within it, but less content to take orders unilaterally which it has had to up until now because it relies on america for its military deficit.
 
Last edited:

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
32,889
it's an anglo-american thing and european, too, but the europeans are typically better educated on the world beyond the anglo-sphere. we generally don't pay attention to countries beyond the "west" and when we do it's usually through very propagandized eyes. not that other countries don't have the same problem in reverse but there has been a western exceptionalism which has predominated for centuries if we're being honest. after european hegemony came american hegemony. the rules of the game are changing. the rest of the world is not what it was. it cannot just be dismissed as land with people to be exploited for cheap labour and cheap resources. the loose brics formation has a higher gdp in ppp terms than the g7. in fact, purely in ppp terms, china and india alone are equal to europe and north america combined. this isn't the only metric that counts as wealth disparities and developmental inequalities, especially within india compared with china, also matter. but overall we're in an era of multipolarity and it's only really getting going. that's one enormous issue which the west has not faced in centuries. there was no "west" the last time this kind of thing was in the offing, not as we know it today anyway.

added to that is the economic transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. this is the new mode of production which is being born as we speak and the teething problems of which can be seen everywhere. the new system does not typically come about unproblematically.

but yes, europe in particular is and has been a kind of running joke. it has the economic might but it is subservient to american dominance which it sees as protecting its own interests in various aspects. that is true, too, in limited cases. the problem with an overreliance on america to do the military lifting is that you cannot then stand as a properly independent bloc in negotiations. and that is where the joke comes in. it's why iran lost all patience with europe, though there seems to be better news coming out of that story recently and why, whatever you think of putin, monster or whatever, russia doesn't direct its negotiatiating positions and counter demands to europe but directly to washington. it knows europe has no real say in this when it comes to military matters. europe knows it, too. the alternative is kind of what we're seeing already. if the germans and the rest really do go ahead and start spending tens of billions on military budgets, it's only a matter of time thereafter until europe, as bloc, has less need of nato. it will remain within it, but less content to take orders unilaterally which it has had to up until now because it relies on america for its military deficit.
"in fact, purely in ppp terms, china and india alone are equal to europe and north america combined"

I really doubt that. Source?
 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,387
"in fact, purely in ppp terms, china and india alone are equal to europe and north america combined"

I really doubt that. Source?
GDP (PPP, US$ million) by country or territory


Country (or territory)RegionIMF[1]World Bank[5]CIA[6]
EstimateYearEstimateYearEstimateYear
ChinaAsia30,177,926202224,273,360202023,009,7802020
United StatesAmericas25,346,805202220,936,600202019,846,7202020
European UnionEurope23,730,2752022 20,046,1752020 19,885,6252019
IndiaAsia11,745,26020229,907,02820208,443,3602020


not exactly equal but $48tn to $41tn with projected rise in the latter figure over the coming decades is close.
 

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
32,889
GDP (PPP, US$ million) by country or territory


EstimateYearEstimateYearEstimateYear
Country (or territory)RegionIMF[1]World Bank[5]CIA[6]
ChinaAsia30,177,926202224,273,360202023,009,7802020
United StatesAmericas25,346,805202220,936,600202019,846,7202020
European UnionEurope23,730,2752022 20,046,1752020 19,885,6252019
IndiaAsia11,745,26020229,907,02820208,443,3602020


not exactly equal but $48tn to $41tn with projected rise in the latter figure over the coming decades is close.
Right. So not equal as of now.
 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,387
He's completely lost it.
he said it was akin to hitler and stalin invading poland. i'd be interested to read or listen to the actual clip for context as i highly doubt it is exactly as reported seeing as it runs entirely against everything else he's said on the topic.

Reading Putin’s mind has become a cottage industry, notable for the extreme confidence of those who interpret the scanty tea leaves. I have some guesses, but they are not based on better evidence than others have, so they have low credibility.

My guess is that Russian intelligence agreed with the announced U.S. government expectations that conquest of Kyiv and installation of a puppet government would be an easy task, not the debacle it turned out to be. I suppose that if Putin had had better information about the Ukrainian will and capacity to resist, and the incompetence of the Russian military, his plans would have been different. Perhaps the plans would have been what many informed analysts had expected, what Russia now seems to have turned to a Plan B: trying to establish firmer control over Crimea and the passage to Russia, and to take over the Donbas region.

Possibly, benefiting from better intelligence, Putin might have had the wisdom to respond seriously to the tentative initiatives of Macron for a negotiated settlement that would have avoided the war, and might have even proceeded to Europe-Russia accommodation along the lines of proposals by de Gaulle and Gorbachev. All we know is that the initiatives were dismissed with contempt, at great cost, not least to Russia. Instead, Putin launched a murderous war of aggression which, indeed, ranks with the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the Hitler-Stalin invasion of Poland.
benefit of the doubt? i think you should give chomsky the benefit of the doubt here as that tweet seems likely to have entirely misrepresented his position.


it's a much more reasonable position than isolated text tells you. it's his default position about russia and nato and all the rest which he hasn't moved from since the start. he's saying put the ball back in russia's court and see if they're sincere about the nato concerns and security. if not, then you've lost nothing by trying to negotiate an end to war. that's not giving putin the benefit of the doubt. he states clearly that the war is an act of aggression on the same level of hitler and stalin in poland and america in iraq. there's no ambiguity there.

taylor is a diehard unionist who otherwise wouldn't bother framing it this way. irked that chomsky supports scottish independence.
 
Last edited:

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,387
That Russia felt threatened by NATO expansion to the East, in violation of firm and unambiguous promises to Gorbachev, has been stressed by virtually every high-level U.S. diplomat with any familiarity with Russia for 30 years, well before Putin. To take just one of a rich array of examples, in 2008 when he was ambassador to Russia and Bush II recklessly invited Ukraine to join NATO, current CIA director William Burns warned that “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin).” He added that “I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” More generally, Burns called NATO expansion into Eastern Europe “premature at best, and needlessly provocative at worst.” And if the expansion reached Ukraine, Burns warned, “There could be no doubt that Putin would fight back hard.”

Burns was merely reiterating common understanding at the highest level of government, back to the early ‘90s. Bush II’s own Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recognized that “trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching, … recklessly ignoring what the Russians considered their own vital national interests.”

The warnings from informed government sources were strong and explicit. They were rejected by Washington from Clinton on. In fact, on to the present moment. That conclusion is confirmed by the recent comprehensive Washington Post study of the background to the invasion. Reviewing the study, George Beebe and Anatol Lieven observe that “the Biden administration’s efforts to avert the war altogether come across as quite lacking. As Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov put it during the weeks preceding the invasion, for Russia ‘the key to everything is the guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward.’ But nowhere in the Post’s account is there any mention that the White House considered offering concrete compromises regarding Ukraine’s future admission into NATO.” Rather, as the State Department had already conceded, “the United States made no effort to address one of Vladimir Putin’s most often stated top security concerns — the possibility of Ukraine’s membership into NATO.”

In brief, provocations continued to the last minute. They were not confined to undermining negotiations but included expansion of the project of integrating Ukraine into the NATO military command, turning it into a “de facto” member of NATO, as U.S. military journals put it.

Reading Putin’s mind has become a cottage industry, notable for the extreme confidence of those who interpret the scanty tea leaves.

The glaringly obvious record of provocation is, presumably, the reason for the tacit rule that the Russian assault must be called “unprovoked,” a term otherwise scarcely if ever used but required in this case in polite society. Psychologists should have no problem explaining the curious behavior.

Though the provocations were consistent and conscious over many years, despite the warnings, they of course in no way justify Putin’s resort to “the supreme international crime” of aggression. Though it may help explain a crime, provocation provides no justification for it.
i don't see any inconsistency. he's talking about the same thing he's been talking about for decades. he was saying that this could lead to a war if the two sides couldn't reach an agreement over mutual security concerns back when many people in the west couldn't find ukraine on a map. he also doesn't justify russia's response or give putin "the benefit of the doubt", which the tweet represents him as saying directly. so the tweet seems misleading to me, or a kind of unionist misinformation, if you like. it's not that i expect people to agree with his position, but it has been intentionally distorted for secondary effects by a unionist who dislikes chomsky more for his support of scottish nationalism than his decades' long position on nato, russia, and ukraine.
 

VidaRed

Unimaginative FC
Joined
Aug 23, 2007
Messages
29,612
There were almost two internets. Then, the CIA destroyed one.
While America made the network that would become the internet, programmers in Chile were building a vision of their own.


In Mashable’s new three-part episode of our series on the digital age's dark side, Kernel Panic, we explore a startlingly advanced computer network developed in Salvador Allende's Chile of the 1970s. Called Project Cybersyn, the network was a centerpiece of Allende's effort to modernize the Chilean economy. It was developed in parallel with the American networks that would become the internet, at a moment in time in which President Nixon was trying to undermine the Chilean economy and overthrow Allende, the first democratically elected Marxist leader in Latin America.

Cybersyn, designed by a farthinking British theorist named Stafford Beer and run by a cadre of young revolutionary programmers, was an astonishing success. Using little more than old telephone wires and mothballed pre-war machinery, the Chilean program managed to build out a real-time data stream very much like the social media newsfeed of today, watching and monitoring the country's industry from a retro-futuristic control room in the capital.

For two years, the programmers used Cybersyn to battle strikes and attempted coups until finally, in September of 1973, Allende was overthrown by a military junta led by Augusto Pinochet. The dream of a stable, modernized Chile died with Allende, and so did the potential for a second internet, built in parallel and evolved under a totally different system of information sharing.

Mashable speaks to Fernando Flores who served under Allende as finance minister before spending three years in prison under Pinochet, as well as Raul Espejo, operational director of Project Cybersyn, and the family of Stafford Beer to take you inside the dream and disappointment of Project Cybersyn.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

https://mashable.com/article/project-cybersyn-chile-kernel-panic