German Football 20/21

GhastlyHun

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Hertha just exited the cup by losing 5-4 to Braunschweig. The game did NOT go to pens, not even extra time :lol:
 

Blackwidow

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Hertha just exited the cup by losing 5-4 to Braunschweig. The game did NOT go to pens, not even extra time :lol:
But was an interesting watch. I just turned on because I needed entertainment for my dinner - I am really a slow eater - and there was nothing else on.
 

do.ob

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Strange to see that after spending all that money they still started Leckie in attack and MIttelstädt in midfield. Looking at that lineup yesterday you have Cunha, Tousart, Lukebakio who are good but not great players and the rest is basically midtable quality.
 

staubsauger

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I'd argue that right now our(Hertha) squad is hardly better than last season. I was pleasantly surprised that we managed to score 4 goals after failing to score in the last three test games, although it is worrying that basically everything ran through Cunha. Injuries, bans and quarantine further decimated the squad, Boyata is certainly missing as someone who leads the defense and has the right attitude to succeed. We get any new personnel on the defensive side and I'd argue that our back four should theoretically suffice. I'm not sure why Mittelstädt started over Dilrosun, or Leckie over Duda, may be due to fitness, but there are some huge deficiencys when it comes to scoring against a prober Bundesliga defense.

Kicker reported that we were looking to sign 5 players, a GK, right full back, central midfielder, a winger and a striker, so far we only got the first two. Having money to spend is one thing, finding players that improve the squad and are willing to join a club which can not even guarantee EL is another thing entirely.
 

Blackwidow

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In difference to yesterday this Cup afternoon until now is pretty boring as the favourites are all on track... :(
 

paulscholes18

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Chong scored on his debut

Last 15 seconds

 

do.ob

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Maybe it's the raised scarves or Twitter's shitty resolution, but does that look like a socially distanced crowd? Fair play for getting the whole stadium involved though and on the bright side the more rural North-East seems to barely have any Corona cases to begin with, so maybe they can get away with it. It's a bit dicy for their head of state to post this though, in case is doesn't end so well.
 
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Piratesoup

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If only Hoeneß could just shut the feck up....
 

Acrobat7

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If only Hoeneß could just shut the feck up....
He lost his timing. His attacks were mostly on point up to 10 years ago, but not anymore.
And yes, he should have shut up a long time ago.

Edit: I assume Thiago off this summer and Alaba on a free next year. This in combination with losing the three loan players means that IMO Bayern needs to invest this summer.
 

do.ob

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He lost his timing. His attacks were mostly on point up to 10 years ago, but not anymore.
And yes, he should have shut up a long time ago.

Edit: I assume Thiago off this summer and Alaba on a free next year. This in combination with losing the three loan players means that IMO Bayern needs to invest this summer.
I feel like that's only half the story, back then there was also wild stuff, like calling Daum a coke head without proof only to be bailed out by Daum's "absolutely clear conscience", his constant attacks on Werder's Lemke or boasting about how much and honestly he paid all his taxes or calling a mainstream punk band like "Die Toten Hosen" something along the lines of "the dirt that will one day suffocate our society".
I think the other half of the story is that he used to be the godfather of Bayern and to a degree the whole of Bundesliga, so people always gave him the benefit of the doubt or were like "well if Hoeneß says so.." and he lost that authority after going to jail, at least outside of Munich. Perhaps society also shifted as a whole when it comes to glorifying a strong leader figure.
 

Acrobat7

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I feel like that's only half the story, back then there was also wild stuff, like calling Daum a coke head without proof only to be bailed out by Daum's "absolutely clear conscience", his constant attacks on Werder's Lemke or boasting about how much and honestly he paid all his taxes or calling a mainstream punk band like "Die Toten Hosen" something along the lines of "the dirt that will one day suffocate our society".
I think the other half of the story is that he used to be the godfather of Bayern and to a degree the whole of Bundesliga, so people always gave him the benefit of the doubt or were like "well if Hoeneß says so.." and he lost that authority after going to jail, at least outside of Munich. Perhaps society also shifted as a whole when it comes to glorifying a strong leader figure.
While i agree with you, i meant that his polemic achieved what he wanted to in the past. Hoeneß lashed out at people/clubs from a position of strength.
But in this case Alaba is the one in a position of strength. Hoeneß doesn‘t understand that or doesn’t care for it. He is not a successful bully but detrimental to Bayern.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Hamburg didn't play too badly I thought but missed loads of chances and couldn't deal with Dresden's very aggressive approach. Nice to have 10,000 back in the stadium.
 

WI_Red

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Bellingham and Reyna both looking good in the center of the midfield. The spine of the Dortmund attack right now is two 17 year olds and two 20 year olds. They may not be there long term, but damn is Dortmund good at what they do.
 

do.ob

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Bellingham and Reyna both looking good in the center of the midfield. The spine of the Dortmund attack right now is two 17 year olds and two 20 year olds. They may not be there long term, but damn is Dortmund good at what they do.
The fools who said FM wasn't a realistic game!
 

FootballHQ

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Following the Rashica to Villa saga and seems Bremen are close to signing Dahoud from Dortmund for about 5m. Thought he was excellent at 'Gladbach but assumed it's panned out a bit like Wiegl there so now he needs to take a step back to get his career going again.
 

do.ob

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Following the Rashica to Villa saga and seems Bremen are close to signing Dahoud from Dortmund for about 5m. Thought he was excellent at 'Gladbach but assumed it's panned out a bit like Wiegl there so now he needs to take a step back to get his career going again.

In terms of talent he's a terrific CM and he had his moments for Dortmund, but in the end he's always been woefully inconsistent and now Bellingham will take what little was left of his game time.

Kohfeldt should be a good coach to utilize him well, but it will be a bit surprising if he makes the step all the way down to Bremen. I would have guessed he'd leave for a top 6 team or maybe even Gladbach/Leverkusen as a situational option.
 

DarkLord

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All Bundesliga games will be played with fans in the stadiums. 20% capacity.
I wonder how they get to choose the fans? First come first serve? 20% all home or split home and away. The media is so clickbait. I read the headline and they didn't mention anything about just 20% of fans and was excited for a moment.
 

do.ob

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I wonder how they get to choose the fans? First come first serve? 20% all home or split home and away. The media is so clickbait. I read the headline and they didn't mention anything about just 20% of fans and was excited for a moment.
Dortmund, for the time being, are offering tickets to local season ticket holders at random.
 

Blackwidow

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Bayern is allowed to bring in 10% - 7500 fans - on Friday after talks with the local authorities.

(the City Munich right now has slightly more than the 35 new cases per 100.000 inhabitants per 7 days)
 

do.ob

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GI have released their placement probability table. As they point out themselves with quite a few of the transfers still about to be done it's subject to big change and to be honest it looks completely wild this time, but in general they have always made a lot of sense to me in the past, so I think it's worth a look.

 

Acrobat7

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GI have released their placement probability table. As they point out themselves with quite a few of the transfers still about to be done it's subject to big change and to be honest it looks completely wild this time, but in general they have always made a lot of sense to me in the past, so I think it's worth a look.

I expect Gladbach and Hertha to outperform that.
 

Cheimoon

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GI have released their placement probability table. As they point out themselves with quite a few of the transfers still about to be done it's subject to big change and to be honest it looks completely wild this time, but in general they have always made a lot of sense to me in the past, so I think it's worth a look.

Do you know what the success rate been with their predictions in the past? Or do they update their methodology each year to try and address weaknesses in their model that they discover as the season unfolds?
 

do.ob

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Do you know what the success rate been with their predictions in the past? Or do they update their methodology each year to try and address weaknesses in their model that they discover as the season unfolds?
They are a commercial project, so I assume they are constantly trying to improve. Their algorithm just rates players, so it ignores coaching which explains why Gladbach have such a mediocre prediction. Union being ranked so highly can probably be explained by the addition of Kruse.
The most interesting placements are probably Hertha and Mainz, whose 20% for last place are actually the third highest figure on the table.
 

2ndTouch

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they make interesting predictions about expected points.
Expected points between 4th and 18th is a rather slim margin of 11pts. Doesn't really point to a precise algorithm in my book
 

Pagh Wraith

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I don't know about GoalImpact but I'd be surprised if there were any correlation between their predictions and actual results. Probably similar to FiveThirtyEight which I see being referred to from time to time but whose model is essentially useless. The only reliable predictor are the betting closing lines which show a perfect correlation between expected and observed outcomes. Even Pinnacle's inefficient opening lines have a much, much higher predictive value than any of these models.
 

PedroMendez

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Expected points between 4th and 18th is a rather slim margin of 11pts. Doesn't really point to a precise algorithm in my book
the basis of their analysis seems to be similar to the plus-minus (score differential of the team, while the player is on the court) of the NBA. They compare goal differentials when the player is on the pitch compared to when he is not playing and adjust ist based on various criteria (e.g. teammates values, minutes played). Thats what they call goal-impact for each player. They probably average over these individual ratings (maybe weighted in some way) to determine a team value and simulate all games based on these ratings.
This might tell us something about the quality of squats (it would be interesting how they get from individual scores to team scores), but a straight-forward interpretation of these predictions is a bit wonky.
 

do.ob

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I wouldn't take that table too literally, like I won't go all in on Mainz getting relegated, even though the table assigns almost 50% probability to that case. It's more a metric for squad quality, but even with that limitation it can give you some pointers, like Hertha being a potential disappointment - something that's already been put in motion by their cupgame. Rose probably being a coach who can make his team greater than the sum of its parts. Leverkusen having lost a lot of quality over the summer.

Another way to look at it would be by just taking the broad strokes to sort the teams into tiers:
T1: Bayern
T2: Dortmund
T3: Leipzig
T4: Hoffenheim, Wolfsburg, U. Berlin, Leverkusen, Frankfurt, Gladbach
T5: Schalke, Stuttgart, Bremen, Cologne
T6: Bielefeld, Augsburg, Freiburg, Big City Berlin, Mainz

If you manually adjust the coaching factor by putting the teams who are known for being coached very well one or two categories higher, like Gladbach in T3, Leipzig closer to T2 or Freiburg somewhere between T4 and T5 then it's really only the two Berlin clubs who stick out.
 

Cheimoon

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They are a commercial project, so I assume they are constantly trying to improve. Their algorithm just rates players, so it ignores coaching which explains why Gladbach have such a mediocre prediction. Union being ranked so highly can probably be explained by the addition of Kruse.
The most interesting placements are probably Hertha and Mainz, whose 20% for last place are actually the third highest figure on the table.
Interesting. Assuming their assessment of players is fairly reliable, the difference between their prediction table and actual table is then primarily a comment on each team's coach.