German Football 20/21

Zehner

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The cycle coming to an end is actually a much bigger issue for Bayern, with Lewandowski, Neuer, Müller, Alaba and to a lesser degree Boateng, consistent performers for the better part of a decade, who are now leaving for free or retiring. Dortmund are always operating on shorter cycles and have many more moving parts. Reus and Hummels are the big concerns.
Bayern doesn't need to build from scratch again. They have the financial strength to replace their star players and also to compensate a fee very expensive failed transfers. Dortmund currently has two generational talents among them and even with them they couldn't really challenge Bayern post Ribery and Robben.



But this is wishful thinking at best. There is so much wrong with these assumptions:
-Clubs like Schalke or Hamburg wouldn't allow someone to take them over.
-Even if they did there would be severe fan protests, the club would become plastic and lose a lot of its appeal.
-Economically it doesn't make sense to push much further than top four for profit seeking owners.
-You kill 50+1 and no one knows how many more micro plastics will spawn and pollute the system. It's already too many.
In the end football fans are opportunistic like everybody else. Of course it wouldn't work to rename the club to "RB Schalke" or anything like that but the Schalke fans were already fine with selling the soul of the club to Gazprom and especially in the current situation they'd probably see it as a way back to the top.

I mean, you use the term plastic a lot, what does it actually mean for you? Because the clubs in question are already extremely commercialized anyway.
 

do.ob

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Bayern doesn't need to build from scratch again. They have the financial strength to replace their star players and also to compensate a fee very expensive failed transfers. Dortmund currently has two generational talents among them and even with them they couldn't really challenge Bayern post Ribery and Robben.
Even Bayern can't just straight up buy replacements for Lewandowski, Neuer or Müller. I don't expect them to implode, they will still be an elite club, but these last like 10 years were a proper golden era for them and maintaining it to this extend is far from given. Dortmund will not be able to replace Sancho and Haaland like for like, obviously. But as I have said the club has a lot more moving parts and thus lot more avenues of improvement than an elite club.
For example Kobel will hopefully be a significant upgrade over Bürki and Hitz, RB is another position that can be strengthened greatly for a moderate fee. Then there are young players like Bellingham or Reyna, who are already playing significant roles, but due to their age still promise huge room for improvement. Then there were some painful transfer flops and the fact that after Tuchel the coaches haven't really worked out as well as one would have hoped and the academy has not been as productive as it should have been. It's always a one step backwards two steps forward kind of development, but unless they feck up majorly the club will bounce back from losing Sancho and Haaland relatively quickly, just like they did with every other top performer they had to let go over the years.



In the end football fans are opportunistic like everybody else. Of course it wouldn't work to rename the club to "RB Schalke" or anything like that but the Schalke fans were already fine with selling the soul of the club to Gazprom and especially in the current situation they'd probably see it as a way back to the top.

I mean, you use the term plastic a lot, what does it actually mean for you? Because the clubs in question are already extremely commercialized anyway.
But this is getting dishonest again. These corporations are investing in their clubs, precisely, because they bear their name, otherwise they could just do what their counterparts at Bayern or Dortmund do, and opt for a strategic partnership with a well run club at a much smaller price. And it's quite obvious, that even now Schalke would not sell out control of their club. Because of their troubles they are discussing a change of their legal form, but they don't even seem to be willing to go into the KGaA or AG direction (like Dortmund or Bayern), but instead seem to be set on "eG" as their new model.

And I would assume that most people define "plastic" as operating outside of 50+1, with a motivation that isn't purely maximizing sporting success anymore.
 

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Bayern might have gotten really lucky for Müller's replacement. I think Musiala could become a great number 10/offensive midfielder with his dribbling skills in tight spaces and good finishing.

Neuer's replacement at Bayern will probably end up being the new goalkeeper for the German national team, after Ter Stegen had his shot for like one tournament as Germany's #1 after Neuer retired. Bayern just has a way of getting Germany's #1 as their goalie.

Lewandowski's replacement however will be extremly difficult to find and Bayern will probably end up losing the most quality at the centre forward position. World class strikers are the most expensive and sought after players in football. Bayern got extremly lucky getting Lewandowski from Dortmund. Fortunately, Lewandoski is a true professional and might be able to play well into his thirties, similar to Christiano Ronaldo.
But whenever the time comes for Bayern to have to replace Lewy they will be in for a world of pain, unless they've been hiding a little Gerd Müller clone in their academy. Maybe Moukoko will develop into a very good centre forward at Dortmund and Bayern can pick him up on a free transfer. Never change a winning system.
 

Zehner

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Bayern might have gotten really lucky for Müller's replacement. I think Musiala could become a great number 10/offensive midfielder with his dribbling skills in tight spaces and good finishing.

Neuer's replacement at Bayern will probably end up being the new goalkeeper for the German national team, after Ter Stegen had his shot for like one tournament as Germany's #1 after Neuer retired. Bayern just has a way of getting Germany's #1 as their goalie.

Lewandowski's replacement however will be extremly difficult to find and Bayern will probably end up losing the most quality at the centre forward position. World class strikers are the most expensive and sought after players in football. Bayern got extremly lucky getting Lewandowski from Dortmund. Fortunately, Lewandoski is a true professional and might be able to play well into his thirties, similar to Christiano Ronaldo.
But whenever the time comes for Bayern to have to replace Lewy they will be in for a world of pain, unless they've been hiding a little Gerd Müller clone in their academy. Maybe Moukoko will develop into a very good centre forward at Dortmund and Bayern can pick him up on a free transfer. Never change a winning system.
Are you referring to Nübel? I really don't see him becoming Germany's new goal keeper. I mean, if really no other prospect emerges, it might be the case but that would mean we have the worst keeper in our history, probably. Unless Nübel makes a huge step forward but he's already 24 already, so.. I guess Ter Stegen is pretty much guaranteed the spot for 4+ years after Neuer's retirement. He's six years younger, after all, and no other keeper really comes close to their level.

Regarding the Lewandowski replacement: I think they'll find one relatively easily. Bayern had great strikers for as long as I can remember. Bayern is so cautious on the transfer market that they can spend big when they really need somebody. They might even go for Werner when the day of Lewandowski's retirement comes now Nagelsmann is there.
I can't imagine Moukoko, though. The guy seems really emotionally invested into Dortmund, saying stuff like he wants to win the UCL with them and labeling them his dream club. Him going to Bayern would be a bigger betrayal than even Götze. He'd probably pick a foreign club when he leaves.
 

CookieMonster

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Are you referring to Nübel? I really don't see him becoming Germany's new goal keeper. I mean, if really no other prospect emerges, it might be the case but that would mean we have the worst keeper in our history, probably. Unless Nübel makes a huge step forward but he's already 24 already, so.. I guess Ter Stegen is pretty much guaranteed the spot for 4+ years after Neuer's retirement. He's six years younger, after all, and no other keeper really comes close to their level.
No, not Nübel. I think Nübel might still become a decent goalkeeper for a different German club. But there is just no way Nübel becomes Bayern's #1. Neuer will still be playing for far too long for that.
I mean Germany's #1 goalkeeper after Ter Stegen's, probably rather short, time to shine. Four years, so one or two big tournaments, might be a good estimation for that. Who that goalkeeper might be exactly? No idea. But after the end of Kahn's career Bayern had a couple of seasons with Butt, Rensing and Kraft before they got Neuer. So things will probably be the same until a clear cut, future #1 goalkeeper for Germany shows himself in the Bundesliga.


As for Lewandowski's sucessor. Bayern will probably get a replacement whose about at the level that Mario Mandzukic, Roy Makaay, Giovanni Elber, Mario Gomez, Miro Klose and Luca Toni were at. Those were the big star players and centre forwards before Bayern got Lewandowski. And I agree, all of them, except for Mario Gomez, did a great job at Bayern and are remembered very fondly by the fans. Gomez did okay-ish, but he just didn't offer much except for his goalscoring.
But none of those players were as good as Lewandowski. None of those players was the worlds best centre forward for two seasons, in which he should have won the ballon d'or twice. And there's a dirty secret why that's the case. Bayern isn't big enough to consistently land the world's absolute best strikers. Bayern tried with Ruud Van Nistlerooy - but he just used Bayern to get better wages at Real and play in a squad with Ronaldo and Raul. Bayern just isn't willing to pay what it takes to get the absolute best strikers in the world, or the talents with a clear cut path to become the worlds best strikers, like Mbappe or Haaland. They lack the prestige of Real Madrid or Barcelona, or the endless pockets of PSG or Manchester City to do so. The primera division and premier league are also more attractive to top players than the Bundesliga.
So Bayern has to shop a shelf below the best of the best strikers - and they can therefore only land a player of Lewandowski's caliber with a huge amount of luck. And I doubt Bayern will have that much Dusel two times in a row.
 

Ueanuwug

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And this is a fatal attitude, I believe. Here's the revenue growth of both clubs from 2011 (after Klopp's first Bundesliga win) to 2019 (pre covid) according to the Deloitte Money League (I can only add 10 rows which is why 2010 is excluded):

Club201120122013201420152016201720182019
Bayern321(-1%)368 (+15%)431 (+17%)488 (+13%)474 (-3%)592 (+25%)588 (-1%)629 (+7%)660 +(5%)
Dortmund138 (+31%)197 (+43%)256 (+30%)262 (+2%)281 (+7%)284 (+1%)333 (+17%)317 (-5%)377 (+19%)

So it took Dortmund to "hit the lottery several times with Klopp" as you put it to really gain ground on Bayern. And that's not even factoring in the law of diminishing returns. Dortmund isn't getting closer, they're falling farther behind.

Well, the absolute numbers are interesting to see but at best meaningless. It's all relative. 100 million € difference can mean the world or be almost neglectable depending if it's 50 to 150 million or 900 to 1.000 million. That's rather basic understanding of math. Give your numbers Dortmund has tripled their annual revenue while Bayern has doubled it. Or to go even more into detail about the percentage of Dortmunds revenue compared to Bayerns:


2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019
42,68% / 53,53% / 59,40% / 53,69% / 59,28% / 47,97% / 56,635 / 50,40% / 57,12%



And that is ignoring that Dortmund also had to pay off depts until rather recently which ate away from the actual revenue.
2013 being the year with the Champions League final, thus barely comparable to the other more "average" years. Even Bayern had less revenue the year after. 2016 was a negative outlier. Other than that these numbers look reasonable and showcase Dortmund not falling behind - despite the non-stop success Bayern has had.

That being said - I would like to see those numbers without transfer revenue as the consistent sources of revenue are way more important. For example 2017 looking strong due to the Dembele transfer.
It certainly disproves your claim of "falling behind". Stagnation seems correct, though.

Additionally I do not understand your argument for law of diminishing returns - because if anything, it would hit Bayern earlier than Dortmund. Meaning Bayern is closer to their limit of growth.
 
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Wolf1992

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No, not Nübel. I think Nübel might still become a decent goalkeeper for a different German club. But there is just no way Nübel becomes Bayern's #1. Neuer will still be playing for far too long for that.
I mean Germany's #1 goalkeeper after Ter Stegen's, probably rather short, time to shine. Four years, so one or two big tournaments, might be a good estimation for that. Who that goalkeeper might be exactly? No idea. But after the end of Kahn's career Bayern had a couple of seasons with Butt, Rensing and Kraft before they got Neuer. So things will probably be the same until a clear cut, future #1 goalkeeper for Germany shows himself in the Bundesliga.


As for Lewandowski's sucessor. Bayern will probably get a replacement whose about at the level that Mario Mandzukic, Roy Makaay, Giovanni Elber, Mario Gomez, Miro Klose and Luca Toni were at. Those were the big star players and centre forwards before Bayern got Lewandowski. And I agree, all of them, except for Mario Gomez, did a great job at Bayern and are remembered very fondly by the fans. Gomez did okay-ish, but he just didn't offer much except for his goalscoring.
But none of those players were as good as Lewandowski. None of those players was the worlds best centre forward for two seasons, in which he should have won the ballon d'or twice. And there's a dirty secret why that's the case. Bayern isn't big enough to consistently land the world's absolute best strikers. Bayern tried with Ruud Van Nistlerooy - but he just used Bayern to get better wages at Real and play in a squad with Ronaldo and Raul. Bayern just isn't willing to pay what it takes to get the absolute best strikers in the world, or the talents with a clear cut path to become the worlds best strikers, like Mbappe or Haaland. They lack the prestige of Real Madrid or Barcelona, or the endless pockets of PSG or Manchester City to do so. The primera division and premier league are also more attractive to top players than the Bundesliga.
So Bayern has to shop a shelf below the best of the best strikers - and they can therefore only land a player of Lewandowski's caliber with a huge amount of luck. And I doubt Bayern will have that much Dusel two times in a row.
Historically, Barcelona isn't a bigger club than Bayern neither it has more prestige, but they pay higher wages than Bayern, and spanish weather it's attractive.
And also Barcelona have way more followers than Bayern because spanish is the third most spoken language around the world after english and chinese.
 

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do.ob

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€45m?! Even for West Ham that seems insane.
Have stupid do you have to be to turn that down? :eek:
It's hard to imagine now, but at the time Serdar had just given his debut for die Mannschaft and done really well in Bundesliga. He was probably worth €30m realistically and Schalke were probably still hoping to make top four. It looks a lot more crazy now than it did at the time.
 

unplayable

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It's hard to imagine now, but at the time Serdar had just given his debut for die Mannschaft and done really well in Bundesliga. He was probably worth €30m realistically and Schalke were probably still hoping to make top four. It looks a lot more crazy now than it did at the time.
I always forget that they actually looked like they could potentially qualify for the CL not long ago. It's really hard to imagine that at the moment. :D

edit:Also surely that West Ham offer is bullshit. January 2020 is when they signed Soucek on loan because they didn't have the money to buy him straight away or am I remembering it wrong?
 
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Piratesoup

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It's hard to imagine now, but at the time Serdar had just given his debut for die Mannschaft and done really well in Bundesliga. He was probably worth €30m realistically and Schalke were probably still hoping to make top four. It looks a lot more crazy now than it did at the time.
I beg you, I actually BEG you to stop using "die Mannschaft". It murders a piece of my soul every time you write it. :(
 

GhastlyHun

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I beg you, I actually BEG you to stop using "die Mannschaft". It murders a piece of my soul every time you write it. :(
At this point i'm sure he does it deliberately to hurt the likes of you and me
 

do.ob

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Guys. "Die Mannschaft" is the officials name of die Mannschaft, see die Mannschaft's Twitter account, which is also called "Die Mannschaft" and uses #DieMannschaft as its main hashtag. It would be rude and childish to make up a fantasy name for such a historic institution of the football world.
 

Ueanuwug

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Guys. "Die Mannschaft" is the officials name of die Mannschaft, see die Mannschaft's Twitter account, which is also called "Die Mannschaft" and uses #DieMannschaft as its main hashtag. It would be rude and childish to make up a fantasy name for such a historic institution of the football world.
Not a fantasy name. It's die Nationalmannschaft. Always been. Just because some PR team decided that we change it doesn't make it true.

That is ignoring the semantics of it. Die Mannschaft ist a generic term for a team. Nationalmannschaft clearly defined what kind of team we are talking about.
 

stefan92

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Guys. "Die Mannschaft" is the officials name of die Mannschaft, see die Mannschaft's Twitter account, which is also called "Die Mannschaft" and uses #DieMannschaft as its main hashtag. It would be rude and childish to make up a fantasy name for such a historic institution of the football world.
It was rude and childish by Bierhoff and his PR team to introduce us to this laughable "name" for our national team. Please stop supporting that sh**
 

Piratesoup

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Guys. "Die Mannschaft" is the officials name of die Mannschaft, see die Mannschaft's Twitter account, which is also called "Die Mannschaft" and uses #DieMannschaft as its main hashtag. It would be rude and childish to make up a fantasy name for such a historic institution of the football world.
You fiend....
 

JuveGER

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That is ignoring the semantics of it. Die Mannschaft ist a generic term for a team. Nationalmannschaft clearly defined what kind of team we are talking about.
Everyone knows that the term is referring to the national team, especially when there is context. Oh, and particularly in an English language setting like this forum. Are there Brazilians who complain that "Selecao" is a generic term for any team, where you cannot possibly know who it's referring to, even when used in context of a tournament of national teams?

Seriously, I find this German "Tradition!!!11111!!" folks hilarious. The funny thing is that they football the want preserve is itself a modernization of football how it existed before. Panta rhei, guys!
 

stefan92

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Everyone knows that the term is referring to the national team, especially when there is context. Oh, and particularly in an English language setting like this forum. Are there Brazilians who complain that "Selecao" is a generic term for any team, where you cannot possibly know who it's referring to, even when used in context of a tournament of national teams?

Seriously, I find this German "Tradition!!!11111!!" folks hilarious. The funny thing is that they football the want preserve is itself a modernization of football how it existed before. Panta rhei, guys!
I would agree with you if this was a successful modernization. However interest in the national team seems to be at a very low point compared to the last few years and that is at least partially caused by people not any longer identifying themselves with the team. Die #Mannschaft just seems to be a stupid marketing vehicle and does not feel like a team representing everyone. Multiple scandals and crisis at the DFB headquarter, the worst ever result at a World Cup in 2018, failure in the Nations League all while trying to appear more "modern" is a horrible development, and symbol and symptom of those developments is actually that name no one used or asked for.
 

JuveGER

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I would agree with you if this was a successful modernization. However interest in the national team seems to be at a very low point compared to the last few years and that is at least partially caused by people not any longer identifying themselves with the team. Die #Mannschaft just seems to be a stupid marketing vehicle and does not feel like a team representing everyone. Multiple scandals and crisis at the DFB headquarter, the worst ever result at a World Cup in 2018, failure in the Nations League all while trying to appear more "modern" is a horrible development, and symbol and symptom of those developments is actually that name no one used or asked for.
Of course, it is a marketing thing and an attempt to have nickname, which all other major countries have. But I find it hilarious that some people get upset about something that trivial. I think scandals at the DFB and the poor performance of the team have much more to do with #DieMannschaft (SCNR) being less popular. And I am sorry to say that the new nickname is already regularly used by media domestic and abroad. It's the "new normal". You better get used to it! ;)
 

Zehner

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Of course, it is a marketing thing and an attempt to have nickname, which all other major countries have. But I find it hilarious that some people get upset about something that trivial. I think scandals at the DFB and the poor performance of the team have much more to do with #DieMannschaft (SCNR) being less popular. And I am sorry to say that the new nickname is already regularly used by media domestic and abroad. It's the "new normal". You better get used to it! ;)
It's just bad and uninspired. Sure, Seleccion or Selecao are also very simple but they seem to have emerged organically. But if you want to create something more marketable artificially, at least be a bit more subtle. "Die Mannschaft" is somehow just so cringeworthy.
 

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Lothar is not getting the respect he deserves - and I can see why, he had us witness some rough years, what with him buying his 18 year old girlfriend fake tits as a gift for reaching the A-levels.
His image is defined by that, but he's not like that anymore.
But look beyond his indomitable Franconian accent you'll find razor sharp analysis. By, let's not forget this, one of the greatest football players this planet has ever seen.
 

CookieMonster

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Lothar is not getting the respect he deserves - and I can see why, he had us witness some rough years, what with him buying his 18 year old girlfriend fake tits as a gift for reaching the A-levels.
His image is defined by that, but he's not like that anymore.
But look beyond his indomitable Franconian accent you'll find razor sharp analysis. By, let's not forget this, one of the greatest football players this planet has ever seen.
And he has the potential to become the best greenkeeper the Bundesliga has ever seen! His talent is so great that Hoeneß banned him from ever becoming Bayern's greenkeeper. Hoeneß was afraid that people would replace the green they used to crave, aka $, with Bayern's grass, once they see the pitch Loddar made in all its glory. So, to preserve the stability of the world's economy, Hoeneß banned Loddar from ever working at Bayern.
 

do.ob

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It's just bad and uninspired. Sure, Seleccion or Selecao are also very simple but they seem to have emerged organically. But if you want to create something more marketable artificially, at least be a bit more subtle. "Die Mannschaft" is somehow just so cringeworthy.
Right. Traditional organic origins are very important. Can't have plastic ... uhm.. names.. in football.
 

Swarm

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Lothar is not getting the respect he deserves - and I can see why, he had us witness some rough years, what with him buying his 18 year old girlfriend fake tits as a gift for reaching the A-levels.
His image is defined by that, but he's not like that anymore.
But look beyond his indomitable Franconian accent you'll find razor sharp analysis. By, let's not forget this, one of the greatest football players this planet has ever seen.
I find it increasingly hard to tell if you are actually being serious :lol: If not then you are playing this perfectly.
 

Swarm

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I'm concerned with rules and values of fair play, not with pretty names.
I'm not equating the two and for what it is worth, I have been following your extended feud with @Zehner for a while now and am impressed by the endurance with which you keep arguing with him. I simply would not have the time and/or nerves to do that. From what I can tell I am pretty squarely in your corner, which is not to say that I don't also generally respect @Zehner as a poster here. He just sometimes argues cases I don't agree with and sometimes with remarkable effort as well.

I do see the irony however in you specifcally embracing the "plastic" rebranding of our national team :)
 

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It's a shit name of a marketing abomination chosen by stupid officials for stupid people

really stands for all that's wrong with the DFB imo, obvious symptom
 

do.ob

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I'm not equating the two and for what it is worth, I have been following your extended feud with @Zehner for a while now and am impressed by the endurance with which you keep arguing with him. I simply would not have the time and/or nerves to do that. From what I can tell I am pretty squarely in your corner, which is not to say that I don't also generally respect @Zehner as a poster here. He just sometimes argues cases I don't agree with and sometimes with remarkable effort as well.

I do see the irony however in you specifcally embracing the "plastic" rebranding of our national team :)
I wouldn't call it a feud, it's just a disagreeing argument.

And honestly, people should get over die Mannschaft calling die Mannschaft die Mannschaft. It's not meant to revolutionize the German market, it's meant for those foreign journalists who love to drop isolated German words in their articles like it means something profound and to give people abroad an official name to use.
Yet among all the things you can take issue with in modern football this is the thing that triggers everyone out of their mind, to the point where even our resident plastic connoisseur bemoans a lack of authenticity.
 

Hansi Fick

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I wouldn't call it a feud, it's just a disagreeing argument.

And honestly, people should get over die Mannschaft calling die Mannschaft die Mannschaft. It's not meant to revolutionize the German market, it's meant for those foreign journalists who love to drop isolated German words in their articles like it means something profound and to give people abroad an official name to use.
Yet among all the things you can take issue with in modern football this is the thing that triggers everyone out of their mind, to the point where even our resident plastic connoisseur bemoans a lack of authenticity.
Good points.
So I propose, in order to anticipate the inevitable spelling errors too, that we write "Die Manshaft". That I would be fine with.
 

Swarm

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I wouldn't call it a feud, it's just a disagreeing argument.
Bit of hyperbole, was referring to the sheer walls of text you two are producing rather than it being some huge fight.
And honestly, people should get over die Mannschaft calling die Mannschaft die Mannschaft. It's not meant to revolutionize the German market, it's meant for those foreign journalists who love to drop isolated German words in their articles like it means something profound and to give people abroad an official name to use.
Yet among all the things you can take issue with in modern football this is the thing that triggers everyone out of their mind, to the point where even our resident plastic connoisseur bemoans a lack of authenticity.
The thing is that it just sticks out like a sore thumb anywhere you see it, in foreign languages even more so. It's such an easy thing to hate. Let foreign journalists call it the Nationalmannschaft, that's what people call it and hey, it's an even longer composite german word, what's not to love?
 

do.ob

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The thing is that it just sticks out like a sore thumb anywhere you see it, in foreign languages even more so. It's such an easy thing to hate. Let foreign journalists call it the Nationalmannschaft, that's what people call it and hey, it's an even longer composite german word, what's not to love?
Sticking out is the point, isn't it? And die Mannschaft is just more on the point than die Nationalmannschaft. It loses it's "magic" when people think half the word is English. Brazilians themselves seem to go by Selecao Brasileira, but internationally I've only ever seen the one word and everyone knows what it's supposed to mean. The same way no one asks "what factory?" when you talk about die Werkself. So really, no need to specify what Mannschaft.
 
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