German Football 22/23 | 2. Bundesliga returns | Hamburg vs Schalke 20:30 |

[do.ob]

Hard to believe they are starting already, when some of the Bundesliga teams haven't even started their training camps yet. The fixtures for the first match day aren't exactly inspiring either, though it was always going to be a step down from last season anyway. Maybe Hannover can get a little head start on their inevitable meltdown?

Also well done to have Rostock vs Heidenheim on a Sunday. If Heidenheim had fans they'd probably be pretty livid about that 700km drive.

 

[Blackwidow]

Hard to believe they are starting already, when some of the Bundesliga teams haven't even started their training camps yet. The fixtures for the first match day aren't exactly inspiring either, though it was always going to be a step down from last season anyway. Maybe Hannover can get a little head start on their inevitable meltdown?

Also well done to have Rostock vs Heidenheim on a Sunday. If Heidenheim had fans they'd probably be pretty livid about that 700km drive.

The Cup weekend starts already in 2 weeks and 2 days... - and a weekend after that the 1st Bundesliga.

 

[hellhunter]

This will be a super tough season for Karlsruhe. Avoiding relegation the only hope I have for the season. Not convinced by the guys they brought in to replace Hofmann, who scored for fun for a notoriously average KSC.

Preseason doesn't mean much, but I think Karlsruhe löst against anyone not consisting of part timers. On top of that, a lot of injury woes in defense and in goal.

 

[do.ob]

This will be a super tough season for Karlsruhe. Avoiding relegation the only hope I have for the season. Not convinced by the guys they brought in to replace Hofmann, who scored for fun for a notoriously average KSC.

Preseason doesn't mean much, but I think Karlsruhe löst against anyone not consisting of part timers. On top of that, a lot of injury woes in defense and in goal.

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I doubt this a very accurate model, but KSC are 4th, so you could just choose to believe in it anyway.

 

[hellhunter]

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I doubt this a very accurate model, but KSC are 4th, so you could just choose to believe in it anyway.

I think Karlsruhe were the most or second most clinical team last season, thanks to Hofmann. So if GD-xGD plays a big role in this, that would explain the result a bit.

Either way, totally believing that. We're back!

 

[do.ob]

I think Karlsruhe were the most or second most clinical team last season, thanks to Hofmann. So if GD-xGD plays a big role in this, that would explain the result a bit.

Either way, totally believing that. We're back!

The important thing is that you get very angry if they don't come in 4th.

 

[hellhunter]

When it comes to Karlsruhe

Spoiler

 

[tenpoless]

Everyone will go to Fussball staden again

 

[Acrobat7]

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I doubt this a very accurate model, but KSC are 4th, so you could just choose to believe in it anyway.

Yes, running only five simulations makes this a pointless exercise. The points gap between first and second is also way too big.
There is a good Twitter account which does probabilities for the year end table and also includes the 2. Bundesliga but the name slipped my mind...

 

[do.ob]

Yes, running only five simulations makes this a pointless exercise. The points gap between first and second is also way too big.
There is a good Twitter account which does probabilities for the year end table and also includes the 2. Bundesliga but the name slipped my mind...

Goalimpact?

 

[Acrobat7]

Goalimpact?

YES!

Thank you. I really like their modellings.

 

[do.ob]

YES!

Thank you. I really like their modellings.

I like them too. But I always feel like they really love promoted teams and really hate Hamburg.

 

[stefan92]

I like them too. But I always feel like they really love promoted teams and really hate Hamburg.

So far they have been right, haven't they?

 

[therealtboy]

I like them too. But I always feel like they really love promoted teams and really hate Hamburg.

Wir alle hassen Hamburg

 

[do.ob]

So far they have been right, haven't they?

Well if I remember correctly they predicted them to finish around 10th place, when we all know that the thing that makes Hamburg such a fun club is that they actually play good seasons only to find a way to fall just short at the last minute.

 

[Chief123]

The seasons already finished before it’s started. Bayern have been crowned champions 2023.

They are set to buy a Dortmund and Leipzig key player in summer 2023.

Quote me on it.

 

[stefan92]

Well if I remember correctly they predicted them to finish around 10th place, when we all know that the thing that makes Hamburg such a fun club is that they actually play good seasons only to find a way to fall just short at the last minute.

Oops I wasn't aware that they predicted them to be that bad. You are absolutely right about what makes them fun

 

[Acrobat7]

The seasons already finished before it’s started. Bayern have been crowned champions 2023.

They are set to buy a Dortmund and Leipzig key player in summer 2023.

Quote me on it.

Location checks out

 

[do.ob]

Further backlash from the "Bayern to bid €30m for Laimer" rumor.

 

[do.ob]

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Spring cleaning continues. Those four would free up a lot of wages and could maybe fetch €60m if the club actually manages to find buyers.

 

[Dans]

Nice looking game in Buchbach tonight.....I may go if India hammer England quickly.

 

[Zehner]

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Spring cleaning continues. Those four would free up a lot of wages and could maybe fetch €60m if the club actually manages to find buyers.

About time Brandt joins a club that makes use of his qualities. Can't think of another transfer that was so bad for all three parties involved.

 

[do.ob]

About time Brandt joins a club that makes use of his qualities. Can't think of another transfer that was so bad for all three parties involved.

He should join Leipzig, Tedesco would probably see his misplaced passes during buildup as an opportunity to press.

 

[stefan92]

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Spring cleaning continues. Those four would free up a lot of wages and could maybe fetch €60m if the club actually manages to find buyers.

I'm a bit surprised to see Akanji listed there. He wasn't that bad, was he?

 

[do.ob]

I'm a bit surprised to see Akanji listed there. He wasn't that bad, was he?

He's been doing well for a long time now and the club was trying to extend his contract, but since he doesn't seem interested they want to get rid while they can still get a fee and they most likely wouldn't bench Schlotterbeck or Sülinho for him either.

 

[Blackwidow]

About time Brandt joins a club that makes use of his qualities. Can't think of another transfer that was so bad for all three parties involved.

Is it the club who cannot make use of him or he, who does not perform...

 

[Zehner]

Is it the club who cannot make use of him or he, who does not perform...

Brandt was inconsistent for years at Leverkusen. Then Bosz came and with him a system change and suddenly Brandt was a monster of a player, scoring or assisting 17 times in 17 games from CM. Dortmund signed him to both play him out of position and out of system. It was an equally stupid move by both parties, just in different ways.

 

[do.ob]

Brandt was inconsistent for years at Leverkusen. Then Bosz came and with him a system change and suddenly Brandt was a monster of a player, scoring or assisting 17 times in 17 games from CM. Dortmund signed him to both play him out of position and out of system. It was an equally stupid move by both parties, just in different ways.

Being good for half a season is not proof of consistency. And Dortmund gave him a chance in just about any position, including CM and including under a possession heavy coach like Favre.

But it turns out that if you want to be the centerpiece of your team it's not so helpful if you misplace passes and turn into pressing opponents constantly while also having an inconsistent defensive contribution at best.

 

[ForEverEleven]

Brandt was inconsistent for years at Leverkusen. Then Bosz came and with him a system change and suddenly Brandt was a monster of a player, scoring or assisting 17 times in 17 games from CM. Dortmund signed him to both play him out of position and out of system. It was an equally stupid move by both parties, just in different ways.

I agree that he was great in that period but that really was the only one in his entire career where he played very good consistently. The more he plays and the older he gets I reckon its not a question of using him in the right system at this point, its him thats the problem.

 

[Zehner]

I don't think so. He had fantastic games for Dortmund last season (e. g. the one against Bayern) if deployed correctly. Thing is that it is not easy to deploy him correctly. While Dortmund and especially he himself seem to think he's a variable player who can be used in different positions, he's actually the exact opposite - which is a serious limitation in itself but it doesn't change the fact that signing him was a terrible decision by Dortmund. So far there has been no coach that fitted to him and on top, he's obviously a player that is the polar opposite of the BVB's beloved malocher ideal. Honestly, all of this was foreseeable from the first rumour and it's a shame that such a talented player like Brandt is wasted in this fashion. Before or after, I haven't seen a Leverkusen player as good as Brandt was in this period under Bosz.

 

[Zehner]

Being good for half a season is not proof of consistency. And Dortmund gave him a chance in just about any position, including CM and including under a possession heavy coach like Favre.

But it turns out that if you want to be the centerpiece of your team it's not so helpful if you misplace passes and turn into pressing opponents constantly while also having an inconsistent defensive contribution at best.

Good then that none of your other players regularly gift counter chances for the opponent. Like Hummels, Meunier, Dahoud, Bellingham or Can.

 

[stefan92]

I don't think so. He had fantastic games for Dortmund last season (e. g. the one against Bayern) if deployed correctly. Thing is that it is not easy to deploy him correctly. While Dortmund and especially he himself seem to think he's a variable player who can be used in different positions, he's actually the exact opposite - which is a serious limitation in itself but it doesn't change the fact that signing him was a terrible decision by Dortmund. So far there has been no coach that fitted to him and on top, he's obviously a player that is the polar opposite of the BVB's beloved malocher ideal. Honestly, all of this was foreseeable from the first rumour and it's a shame that such a talented player like Brandt is wasted in this fashion. Before or after, I haven't seen a Leverkusen player as good as Brandt was in this period under Bosz.

I really think you are blinded by a short purple patch.

While I agree that Brandt's effectiveness depends a lot on his position, the mistakes he actually makes all the time are quite independent of that. He simply is too often lazy and not concentrated.

Edit: that to me seems to be the main difference to some of the other players you just mentioned. They might misplace passes and give the ball away, but it doesn't so often appear to be a lack of concentration, more often a risk willingly taken, which can be justified, especially if you are willing to fix your mistake.

 

[ForEverEleven]

I don't think so. He had fantastic games for Dortmund last season (e. g. the one against Bayern) if deployed correctly. Thing is that it is not easy to deploy him correctly. While Dortmund and especially he himself seem to think he's a variable player who can be used in different positions, he's actually the exact opposite - which is a serious limitation in itself but it doesn't change the fact that signing him was a terrible decision by Dortmund. So far there has been no coach that fitted to him and on top, he's obviously a player that is the polar opposite of the BVB's beloved malocher ideal. Honestly, all of this was foreseeable from the first rumour and it's a shame that such a talented player like Brandt is wasted in this fashion. Before or after, I haven't seen a Leverkusen player as good as Brandt was in this period under Bosz.

That is ridiculous, even during that period under Bosz Havertz was the better player and I would argue that even Wirtz last season till he tore his ACL has been better. And thats only the last few years and players that played in that position.

 

[Zehner]

I really think you are blinded by a short purple patch.

While I agree that Brandt's effectiveness depends a lot on his position, the mistakes he actually makes all the time are quite independent of that. He simply is too often lazy and not concentrated.

Might be the case of course But I believe the pattern is so clear. When Dortmund signed Brandt, Zorc even said publicly that they signed a player that can play multiple positions and accordingly, Brandt was again shifted around a lot - and accordingly, became inconsistent again. On top people apply different standards to him than to other players. As said, Dortmund has a general problem with constant easy turn overs of possession. Hummels mentioned this all the time last season - and he actually played a big part in this himself. So maybe the system plays a part in this because it demands too risky decisions by its players - what's typical for the transition heavy approaches of coaches like Rose.

 

[Zehner]

That is ridiculous, even during that period under Bosz Havertz was the better player and I would argue that even Wirtz last season till he tore his ACL has been better. And thats only the last few years and players that played in that position.

Why was Havertz better? I mean, Havertz especially in this period was very much about scorers. He was a great playmaker as well but not to the same extent as Brandt with all the little one twos, turns and dribblings. Still Brandt got 17 scorers in half a season under Bosz while Havertz in this period got 12. Havertz was regarded the greater talent of course but Brandt was the better player for us at that point in time.

 

[stefan92]

So maybe the system plays a part in this because it demands too risky decisions by its players - what's typical for the transition heavy approaches of coaches like Rose.

I don't know how high you rate Rose, but I would like to phrase it a bit harder: maybe it is the lack of a real possession/attacking system that lead to players taking too high risks.

And yes, that is a general pattern with coaches who like to focus on transition and counter attacks. Very few master the art of truly coaching and training attacking moves that can be executed reliably.

 

[Zehner]

I don't know how high you rate Rose, but I would like to phrase it a bit harder: maybe it is the lack of a real possession/attacking system that lead to players taking too high risks.

And yes, that is a general pattern with coaches who like to focus on transition and counter attacks. Very few master the art of truly coaching and training attacking moves that can be executed reliably.

To me Rose is still a relatively unknown quality since I find it hard to judge what he did in the Bundesliga. But as you said, I believe Dortmund's problem was (and listening to their statements, still might be) that they go into most games as a clear favorite but still want to apply the typical pressing and transition system. Rose was a coach that stands for this approach but when the opponent refuses to make it an open game, other qualities are demanded - patience, control, inventiveness, patterns, positioning, timed runs, etc. Tuchel, Klopp and Nagelsmann overcame those challenges, Rose so far didn't but might still do so in the future.

One way or another, I believe if Dortmund truly wants to become a top club, they have to let this idea behind them and suffocate teams the way Bayern does. They have the financial prowess and quality to do so and I believe Brandt would be an excellent player for such a system.

 

[do.ob]

The issue with Brandt is that he has the gift of being able to ruin his team's momentum entirely by himself. He wants/needs to be the most centralized played of his team and that just doesn't work with a player, who is a bit sloppy on a good day and a turnover machine on a bad day. Because every time he loses the ball in the middle of the pitch it's a prime pressing/counter attacking situation for the opposition, you can see and feel how they devastate his team's morale and confidence.

Meunier's turnovers are different, because he's playing on the outside of the pitch, if he overhits a pass it's annoying, but his team is usually still in an okay shape and they can mostly just go into an organized pressing, or it even results in a throw in. It's also not like he's seen as a key player.

Dahoud didn't play well last season either, but he was fairly reliable in Terzic's first season. He also less reckless against pressing opponents.

Bellingham is actually a relatively reliable passer. He usually produces turnovers via dribblings, which he does where they are supposed to happen, in reasonable attacking positions where his team expects them and where's a real upside to them. He's also fecking 19 years old, while Brandt is in his prime years.

Emre Can is in the same position as Brandt, he isn't supposed to be a starter and the club would like to get rid.

Hummels is getting old and he has his flaws, but I don't see how anyone would compare him to the calamity that is Julian Brandt. If Sülinho and Schlotterbeck perform as well as people hope he'll also struggle to get a starting position.

And unlike Brandt all of these players actually put in the work against the ball.

I don't know how high you rate Rose, but I would like to phrase it a bit harder: maybe it is the lack of a real possession/attacking system that lead to players taking too high risks.

And yes, that is a general pattern with coaches who like to focus on transition and counter attacks. Very few master the art of truly coaching and training attacking moves that can be executed reliably.

The problem for Rose was that the squad was/is still heavily shaped by the possession ideas of Tuchel, Bosz and Favre, while the club wants to switch to a more direct style. Which means it's not set up towards one cohesive idea, which means endless painful compromises for the coach, e.g. trying to play a direct game, but then having super slow players like Witsel and Hummels for cover. Trying to play a pressing game, but then having players like Guerreiro and Brandt in the team.

 

[stefan92]

while the club wants to switch to a more direct style.

Like @Zehner already mentioned that might be a big mistake from the club.

 

[do.ob]

Like @Zehner already mentioned that might be a big mistake from the club.

Well I disagree: Dortmund have tried to move towards possession heavy football after Klopp, by appointing Tuchel, Bosz and Favre and it hasn't really led them anywhere. If anything it has been destabilizing, because in order to accommodate desires of dominance the club had to drop their standards in terms of pressing, defensive work and athleticism.
I also think it's quite frankly a ridiculous idea to suggest going for a possession heavy approach may in any way be cheaper or more cost efficient to maintain. Dominating possession means pushing players forward, which means your (gegen)pressing has to be that much better to compensate, individual mistakes are that much more costly, because you've already exposed yourself at the back. You will want to have complete players on every single position, they need to be able to play their way out of trouble, they need to have very good positional awareness to reliably keep the ball in tight spaces and they need to be able to apply a relentless gegenpressing when a turnover happens.