German Football 22/23 | drama starts at 15:30 on Saturday

[do.ob]

Starting dates:

2. Bundesliga: July 15th​

3. Liga: July 22nd​

DFB Pokal: July 29th​

Bundesliga: August 5th​

Official English Coverage:

https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga ​

List of Broadcasters:

https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/info/broadcasters/​

Fantasy Manager Game:

https://fantasy.bundesliga.com/​

Last season's table:

Odds [July 7th]:

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Spoiler

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New Appointments:

Dortmund: Marco Rose => Edin Terzic [Dortmund]​

Hoffenheim: Sebastian Hoeneß => Andre Breitenreiter [FC Zürich]​

Gladbach: Adolf Hütter => Daniel Farke [FK Krasnodar]​

VFL Wolfsburg: Florian Kohfeldt => Niko Kovac [AS Monaco]​

FC Augsburg: Markus Weinzierl => Enrico Maaßen [Dortmund u23]​

Hertha BSC: Felix Magath => Sandro Schwarz [Dynamo Moskva]​

Schalke 04: Michael Büskens => Frank Kramer [Bielefeld]​

Notable Signings [July 14th]:

Bayern:​

Sadio Mane [30, Liverpool] - €32m​

Ryan Gravenbech [20, Ajax] - €18.5m​

Noussair Mazraoui [24, Ajax] - free​

Mathijs de Ligt [22, Juventus] - €67m​

Mathys Tel [17, Rennes] - €20m​

Dortmund:​

Sebastien Haller [28, Ajax] - €31m​

Karim Adeyemi [20, Salzburg] - €30m​

Nico Schlotterbeck [22, Freiburg] - €20m​

Salih Özcan [24, Köln] - €5m​

Niklas Süle [26, Bayern] - free​

Anthony Modeste [34, Köln] - €5m​

Leverkusen:​

Adam Hlozek [19, Sparta Praha] - €13m​

Leipzig:​

Xaver Schlager [24, Wolfsburg] - €12m​

Timo Werner [26, Chelsea] - €20m​

David Raum [24, Hoffenheim] - €26m​

Abdou Diallo [26, PSG] - €1.5m, loan​

Union Berlin:​

Jordan Siebatcheu [26, Young Boys] - €6m​

SC Freiburg:​

Ritsu Doan [24, PSV] - €8.5m​

Matthias Ginter [28, Gladbach] - free​

Köln:​

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Mainz:​

Angelo Fulgini [25, Angers] - €5m​

Hoffenheim:​

Ozan Kabak [22, Schalke] - €7m​

Angelino [25, Leipzig] - loan​

Stanley Nsoki [23, Brügge] - €12m​

Gladbach:​

Ko Itakura [25, Man City] - €5m​

Julian Weigl [26, Benfica] - loan​

Frankfurt:​

Jens Petter Hauge [22, Milan] - €12m​

Lucas Alario [29, Leverkusen] - €9m​

Mario Götze [30, PSV] - €4m​

Randal Kolo Muani [23, Nantes] - free​

Faride Alidou [20, Hamburg] - free​

Luca Pellegrini [23, Juventus] - free​

Wolfsburg:​

Jakub Kaminski [20, Lech Poznan] - €10m​

Bartol Franjic [22, Dinamo Zagreb] - €7.5m​

Patrick Wimmer [21, Bielefeld] - €5m​

Mattias Svanberg [23, Bologna] - €9m​

Bochum:​

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Augsburg:​

Arne Meier [23, Hertha] - €5m​

Stuttgart:​

Konstantinos Mavropanos [24, Arsenal] - €3.2m​

Josha Vagnoman [21, HSV] - €3.7m​

Serhou Guirassy [26, Rennes] - loan​

Hertha:​

Jessic Ngankam [21, Hertha Fürth] €2m​

Jonjoe Kenny [25, Everton] - free​

Filip Uremovic [25, Kazan] - free​

Chdera Ejuke [CSKA Moskva] - loan​

Schalke:​

Sebastian Polter [31, Bochum] - €1.5m​

Florent Mollet [30, Montpellier] - €500k​

Alexander Schwolow [30, Hertha] - €300k, loan​

Maya Yoshida [33, Sampdoria] - free​

Alex Kral [24, Spartak Moskva] - loan​

Bremen:​

Amos Pieper [25, Bielefeld] - free​

Niklas Stark [27, Hertha] - free​

Lee Buchanan [21, Derby County] - free​

Oliver Burke [25, Sheffield United] - free​

Mitchell Weiser [28, Leverkusen] - free​

Podcasts:

https://twitter.com/talkingfussball - day to day​

https://mobile.twitter.com/gegenpress_pod - day to day​

https://www.dw.com/en/all-media-content/s-100826?type=17&programs=55912847 - big(ger) picture​

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Twitter:

General Coverage:​

https://twitter.com/Bundesliga_EN​

https://twitter.com/RaeComm​

https://twitter.com/dw_sports​

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Mercato:​

https://twitter.com/BL_LatestNews - Bundesliga Aggregator​

https://twitter.com/iMiaSanMia - Bayern / Germany Aggregator​

https://twitter.com/bvbnewsblog - Dortmund Aggregator​

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Stats/Analysis​

https://twitter.com/BuLiAnalytics​

https://twitter.com/michael_karbach​

https://twitter.com/BundesligaData​

https://twitter.com/OptaFranz/​

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Misc:​

https://twitter.com/dfbschiris - VAR decision live update bot​

https://twitter.com/CollinasErben - two referees doing their best to explain decisions [German]​

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Some hip and edgy quotes to impress your friends with:

"Steffen Baumgart is the next Klopp"​

"I always knew Süle was going to be an overweight flop."​

"Union Berlin are a football fairytale"​

"I still believe in Julian Nagelsmann"​

"I don't understand why Hoffenheim are disliked, only four teams have been in the top division for longer."​

"Actually they are just called Hertha."​

"They never should have let Magath go."​

"[Young player Hertha lost for free] could have really helped them"​

"I can't believe what a bargain that [PSG Academy player] has been.​

"Brazzo masterclass"​

"Did you know Ginter was born in Freiburg?"​

"I hate that everyone overlooks Union Berlin's right wing issues."​

"I'm so glad Süle is finally getting the appreciation he deserves."​

"Signing Kramer and lumping crosses on Polter and Terodde might actually not have been such a good plan after all."​

"Gladbach will get relegated."​

"Maybe Dortmund need a creative player or winger after all."​

"This is Leverkusen's year."​

"Jonathan Burkardt is like a young Lewandowski and needs to make the WC squad."​

"Maybe Tedesco isn't actually such a good coach without Nkunku in peak form."​

"This is Julian Brandt's year."​

"Breitenreiter, what were they thinking?"​

"Schalke just need to play some good old Malocherfußball."​

"I actually really rate Christian Streich."​

"Leipzig have landed a real bargain with that Salzburg player."​

"Leipzig and Leverkusen being unable to challenge Bayern proves that we need to do away with 50+1!"​

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Bonus content:

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[Siorac]

1.2 odds on Bayern winning the league?

That's a 20% return on investment with practically zero risk. Not bad.

 

[kthanksbye]

Bold prediction.

 

[Lay]

I reckon Bayern will win it. Shocking but I think they’ll do it

 

[Acrobat7]

Thank you @do.ob ! Class as always.

And on a serious note, Dortmund really does lag creativity and wingers, don’t they?

 

[Bulldog United]

My money is on Bayern finishing in the top four at odds of 1/10000000000000.

 

[CallyRed]

They should start Bayern on minus 10 points. Make it interesting

 

[do.ob]

Thank you @do.ob ! Class as always.

And on a serious note, Dortmund really does lag creativity and wingers, don’t they?

I think on paper this looks realistic:

The club would probably like to "exchange" Guerreiro for Raum, would probably have to sign another CB for cover and seeing Özcan as a starter straight away sounds a tad optimistic. Basically forsaking typical wingers altogether. I think in their own way the back three would be "creative", Dahoud could privide some from CM and Reus/Reyna would have to do a lot of heavy lifting. It's not looking like a squad that can beat defensive teams consistently enough to think about a title challenge, but I could see it doing well in the cup competitions.

On the other hand Brandt and Hazard haven't been sold yet and Terzic always played some 4231/433 variant, using Reus/Reyna on the "wing", in every game but two, when he was interim coach. So that would point away from a back three.

 

[Acrobat7]

I forgot Meunier is still a thing. Dortmund needs a RB or should unleash Sülinho bombing down the right wing

 

[do.ob]

I forgot Meunier is still a thing. Dortmund needs a RB or should unleash Sülinho bombing down the right wing

He stabilized a lot under Rose and actually was a fairly decent player, with a relatively good attacking output (2G 4A in 17 games), though unfortunately he was one of the many players, who struggled with injuries last season. He's not amazing, but I don't think he forces Kehl's hand right away either and behind him Dortmund have Morey, who looked quite promising before his horrific injury, Lion Semic, a highly rated youngster and Ansgar Knauff on loan at Frankfurt.
I think the club will (have to) focus their attention elsewhere for the moment and then re-evaluate next year.

 

[uamini]

I really expected this to be the year Bayern's current generation finally crumbles and loses the title but have to admit they've signed some pretty good players. Dortmund might take a while to figure things out with so many changes so maybe this will be another boring season at the top.
The relegation battle on the other hand is really hard to predict with Schalke and Werder seemingly stronger than the usual happy-to-be-here clubs that have made it to the Bundesliga in the past few years. I kinda expect one of last year's overachievers (Köln?) to find themselves back at the bottom of the table but that probably applies to more than half of the league.
To be honest most teams are impossible to rate at the moment because it's not clear what their squad will look like in a couple of weeks. And it'll be interesting to see how many clubs will use the opportunity to lend some players from Russia for free. I know Hertha's been keeping an eye on several players but I'm sure they're not the only ones.

 

[Acrobat7]

I really expected this to be the year Bayern's current generation finally crumbles and loses the title but have to admit they've signed some pretty good players.

The thing is: most of Bayern’s players aren’t old. You have 3 world class players in Neuer, Müller and Lewandowski that are old and cannot be replaced. Though Mané is as good a try as possible and a shift away from the 4-2-3-1 could help replacing Müller.

Besides those 3, their squad doesn’t need an overhaul. For this year, their starting XI is (still) up there with the best in Europe:

Neuer
Mazraoui - de Ligt (Upamecano) - Hernandez - Davies
Kimmich - Goretzka
Coman - Müller - Sané
Mané

 

[MackRobinson]

Great thread title

Also good to see Schalke back in the top flight

 

[do.ob]

I really expected this to be the year Bayern's current generation finally crumbles and loses the title but have to admit they've signed some pretty good players. Dortmund might take a while to figure things out with so many changes so maybe this will be another boring season at the top.
The relegation battle on the other hand is really hard to predict with Schalke and Werder seemingly stronger than the usual happy-to-be-here clubs that have made it to the Bundesliga in the past few years. I kinda expect one of last year's overachievers (Köln?) to find themselves back at the bottom of the table but that probably applies to more than half of the league.
To be honest most teams are impossible to rate at the moment because it's not clear what their squad will look like in a couple of weeks. And it'll be interesting to see how many clubs will use the opportunity to lend some players from Russia for free. I know Hertha's been keeping an eye on several players but I'm sure they're not the only ones.

Signing yet another €80m CB with De Ligt, so you can bench your €40m CB signing from last summer, when - Sane aside - your spending on individual players usually caps out at €40m or even lower sounds pretty crazy to me. In most starting Lineups Bayern will probably have spent more on their two CBs than on the entire rest of the team combined.
I think by Bayern's standards their attack might become a bit of a concern: Sane has terrible drops in form, Gnabry appears to be going the way of Süle and Alaba, Coman is nice player to have, but how often is he either injured or ineffective? Müller is basically 33 and Lewandowski wants out. Mane is a great signing but he too is 30 already and if he has to replace Lewandowski that will be a tough ask even for him. Maybe the plan is to compensate with attacking wingbacks, but as far as I can tell they "only" have one of them for either side.
That's not to say that Dortmund will play for this season's title, they have more than enough question marks of their own, but to me it looks like Bayern can be very happy if they manage to maintain their level.

I'm not sure why Schalke would be better than your run of the mill promoted team. Their game plan last season was Terodde, who is 34 years old and more or less failed whenever he tried his luck in Bundesliga. Frank Kramer as a coach doesn't look particularly inspiring either. Maybe they can create some momentum with their fans' support, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are just another Bielefeld.

Bremen have signed some decent CBs for free, but I don't really see it for them either. They aren't exactly Stuttgart, who used their stay in the 2nd tier to blood in a bunch of talented kids. At least they have an interesting coach though.

Freiburg, Union or Köln getting crushed by their European obligations would be a classic Bundesliga story, but all three of them seemed so stable that I wouldn't expect them to fall down all the way.

Bochum, Hertha and Augsburg are natural relegation candidates, because of their squads. At Stuttgart we'll have to see what happens to Sosa and Kalajdzic. And I think Gladbach are actually a dark horse for relegation. Not that I'm in any way certain of it, but they are at a critical point: half their starters have expiring contracts, a lot of them seem to have checked out mentally under Rose even, they just came out of a terrible season, their DoF is an unknown quantitiy and they have made a somewhat risky coaching appointment with expectations of actually playing good football.
I like Frankfurt's transfers so far actually: they held on to Jakic and Hauge (though the latter may have been a tad expensive), Alario is a typical Frankfurt striker, they have been missing last season and he and Götze bring some experience into the squad. Alidou looks like a promising talent for free and with Kolo Muani they've picked up another striker apparently promising striker for free. The question is of course what happens to players like Kostic or Ndicka and how their budget CB signings will perform.

 

[2ndTouch]

Great thread title

Also good to see Schalke back in the top flight

Who's been missing the Smurfs, other than the Smurfs

The thing is: most of Bayern’s players aren’t old. You have 3 world class players in Neuer, Müller and Lewandowski that are old and cannot be replaced. Though Mané is as good a try as possible and a shift away from the 4-2-3-1 could help replacing Müller.

Besides those 3, their squad doesn’t need an overhaul. For this year, their starting XI is (still) up there with the best in Europe:

Neuer
Mazraoui - de Ligt (Upamecano) - Hernandez - Davies
Kimmich - Goretzka
Coman - Müller - Sané
Mané

Actually, Müller's replacement already plays for the club, and Man Utd is good for another 2-3 seasons. That leaves us with the question whether Lewa's depature can be compensated over the course of a full season. We'll see, I guess. If Mane as a 9 doesn't work, we can always bring EMCM, and look for a top class striker next season.
Anyway, an exciting season is beckoning.

/jk
.

 

[Charlie Foley]

Wow great OP. Can we do similar for other European leagues?

 

[kaiser1]

I really expected this to be the year Bayern's current generation finally crumbles and loses the title but have to admit they've signed some pretty good players. Dortmund might take a while to figure things out with so many changes so maybe this will be another boring season at the top.
The relegation battle on the other hand is really hard to predict with Schalke and Werder seemingly stronger than the usual happy-to-be-here clubs that have made it to the Bundesliga in the past few years. I kinda expect one of last year's overachievers (Köln?) to find themselves back at the bottom of the table but that probably applies to more than half of the league.
To be honest most teams are impossible to rate at the moment because it's not clear what their squad will look like in a couple of weeks. And it'll be interesting to see how many clubs will use the opportunity to lend some players from Russia for free. I know Hertha's been keeping an eye on several players but I'm sure they're not the only ones.

This will be Dortmund's best chance to win the league, Bayern is losing Lewy a reliable goal machine and none of the other attackers are able to deliver consistently like him. Add that to Naggelman showing he has no clue of what he is doing and more of the 3-1-6 formations

What's the odd on Naggelsman getting sacked

 

[uamini]

Bochum, Hertha and Augsburg are natural relegation candidates, because of their squads.

As far as Hertha is concerned, I like what Schwarz has been doing so far but he might never get a fair chance due to a really unfortunate schedule. Their first 3 home games are against CL teams and they play 9 of last season's top 10 teams in the first 10 matches. It's gonna be very difficult to get any kind of momentum going that way.
Squad-wise they're probably going to be more balanced this time around which isn't all that difficult considering last season's trainwreck.

 

[::sonny::]

They have only one template they for every club

 

[HerrLeinad]

Signing yet another €80m CB with De Ligt, so you can bench your €40m CB signing from last summer, when - Sane aside - your spending on individual players usually caps out at €40m or even lower sounds pretty crazy to me. In most starting Lineups Bayern will probably have spent more on their two CBs than on the entire rest of the team combined.
I think by Bayern's standards their attack might become a bit of a concern: Sane has terrible drops in form, Gnabry appears to be going the way of Süle and Alaba, Coman is nice player to have, but how often is he either injured or ineffective? Müller is basically 33 and Lewandowski wants out. Mane is a great signing but he too is 30 already and if he has to replace Lewandowski that will be a tough ask even for him. Maybe the plan is to compensate with attacking wingbacks, but as far as I can tell they "only" have one of them for either side.
That's not to say that Dortmund will play for this season's title, they have more than enough question marks of their own, but to me it looks like Bayern can be very happy if they manage to maintain their level.

I'm not sure why Schalke would be better than your run of the mill promoted team. Their game plan last season was Terodde, who is 34 years old and more or less failed whenever he tried his luck in Bundesliga. Frank Kramer as a coach doesn't look particularly inspiring either. Maybe they can create some momentum with their fans' support, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are just another Bielefeld.

Bremen have signed some decent CBs for free, but I don't really see it for them either. They aren't exactly Stuttgart, who used their stay in the 2nd tier to blood in a bunch of talented kids. At least they have an interesting coach though.

Freiburg, Union or Köln getting crushed by their European obligations would be a classic Bundesliga story, but all three of them seemed so stable that I wouldn't expect them to fall down all the way.

Bochum, Hertha and Augsburg are natural relegation candidates, because of their squads. At Stuttgart we'll have to see what happens to Sosa and Kalajdzic. And I think Gladbach are actually a dark horse for relegation. Not that I'm in any way certain of it, but they are at a critical point: half their starters have expiring contracts, a lot of them seem to have checked out mentally under Rose even, they just came out of a terrible season, their DoF is an unknown quantitiy and they have made a somewhat risky coaching appointment with expectations of actually playing good football.
I like Frankfurt's transfers so far actually: they held on to Jakic and Hauge (though the latter may have been a tad expensive), Alario is a typical Frankfurt striker, they have been missing last season and he and Götze bring some experience into the squad. Alidou looks like a promising talent for free and with Kolo Muani they've picked up another striker apparently promising striker for free. The question is of course what happens to players like Kostic or Ndicka and how their budget CB signings will perform.

We lost two generational wingers in Ribery and Robben, not to mention Lahm, Boateng, Alaba etc., and are still fine and the same will be true after Lewandowski. That doesn't mean we will never have a bad season, some day the year will come in which we won't win the league, but I don't think that the current squad would really warrant such concerns.
It should also be obvious why we spent so much money on the defense... we were and are breaking offensive (goal scoring) records while our defense has been a construction site and needed rejuvenation. It's the area where we decided to make changes pretty early.
And while I don't want to diminish Lewandowski's importance or quality in any way but let's also not pretend like he just magically creates goals. He can be as great as he is because we are a team focused on attacking and providing a lot of chances for him. That's why Lewandowski can even underperform his xG and still score an outrageous amount of goals.
So I don't want to say that "losing Lewandowski is actually good for us" but our style of play is at least not as dependent on him as say Barca with Messi and we have shown in the past that we usually find good strikers, not to mention that from 2012-2014 we played with Mandzukic up top and relied on spreading our goal scoring contributions throughout the team which is obviously going to be the plan with Mane and the others if Lewandowski leaves.

I'll also be honest and say that I just don't think that either RBL or Dortmund are in a position to threaten us if we play a "normal" season. That doesn't mean I don't rate either of them, I do think that Dortmund has a team that can push us but imo it needs a Klopp-like Dortmund to really go all the way and I'd be surprised if Dortmund can already get to that level in the next season because despite all the good transfers, it will be a young team with a (semi) new coach so I just don't see the neccessary consistency to do it if we don't have a major meltdown.

Also I don't think for us it is really about "maintaining" our level, last season wasn't "good". Even if we lose something offensively if Lewandowski leaves, there is just a massive area of improvement in regards to our overall defense. We conceded 37 goals last season, we used to have seasons below 20 or close to 20.
That will be a lot more important than whether or not we score 80, 90 or even a 100 goals because most of our goals beyond 80 are mostly "extras" which aren't the ones that decide close games.

 

[Piratesoup]

Consistently the best league thread opening posts on the Caf.

 

[Zehner]

He stabilized a lot under Rose and actually was a fairly decent player

Should be in the opening quotes

 

[Becks00]

There really ought to be some club that can consistently challenge Bayern for the title.

 

[Zehner]

There really ought to be some club that can consistently challenge Bayern for the title.

Don't, you'll make @do.ob angry the Bundesliga is perfectly fine as it is!

 

[do.omb]

Great opening post @do.ob - For what it's worth: I thoroughly regret my username at this point

 

[do.ob]

He's sort of highly rated and very athletic, it'll be interesting to see how he fares in the top division.

We lost two generational wingers in Ribery and Robben, not to mention Lahm, Boateng, Alaba etc., and are still fine and the same will be true after Lewandowski. That doesn't mean we will never have a bad season, some day the year will come in which we won't win the league, but I don't think that the current squad would really warrant such concerns.
It should also be obvious why we spent so much money on the defense... we were and are breaking offensive (goal scoring) records while our defense has been a construction site and needed rejuvenation. It's the area where we decided to make changes pretty early.
And while I don't want to diminish Lewandowski's importance or quality in any way but let's also not pretend like he just magically creates goals. He can be as great as he is because we are a team focused on attacking and providing a lot of chances for him. That's why Lewandowski can even underperform his xG and still score an outrageous amount of goals.
So I don't want to say that "losing Lewandowski is actually good for us" but our style of play is at least not as dependent on him as say Barca with Messi and we have shown in the past that we usually find good strikers, not to mention that from 2012-2014 we played with Mandzukic up top and relied on spreading our goal scoring contributions throughout the team which is obviously going to be the plan with Mane and the others if Lewandowski leaves.

I'll also be honest and say that I just don't think that either RBL or Dortmund are in a position to threaten us if we play a "normal" season. That doesn't mean I don't rate either of them, I do think that Dortmund has a team that can push us but imo it needs a Klopp-like Dortmund to really go all the way and I'd be surprised if Dortmund can already get to that level in the next season because despite all the good transfers, it will be a young team with a (semi) new coach so I just don't see the neccessary consistency to do it if we don't have a major meltdown.

Also I don't think for us it is really about "maintaining" our level, last season wasn't "good". Even if we lose something offensively if Lewandowski leaves, there is just a massive area of improvement in regards to our overall defense. We conceded 37 goals last season, we used to have seasons below 20 or close to 20.
That will be a lot more important than whether or not we score 80, 90 or even a 100 goals because most of our goals beyond 80 are mostly "extras" which aren't the ones that decide close games.

It's not like it was just some natural right that things worked out for Bayern. Mandzukic himself was a pretty decent striker and he enabled Ribery and Robben. When those two were gone Lewandowski (eventually) stepped up in a major way. Gnabry. Coman, Sane - they are firmly at least one tier below Robben, Ribery or Lewandowski.
To me it just looks like - between aging players and the ones who leave for free/cheap, Goretzka's fitness problems - Bayern are bleeding out quality ever so slowly and they need to find a couple of Kimmich tier transfers or elite talents from their academy. No one could convince me for example that Nagelsmann would rather have Mane upfront than Lewandowski, De Ligt will probably be a pretty good signing, but it's €80m to compensate for something that, listening to Kahn, was lost for free when Alaba left.

 

[Zehner]

I think @do.ob has a point here. IMO the Flick's Bayern was already much weaker player for player than Heynckes' CL winning squad. And from Flick's squad, arguably the best CB and the best CM have already left with the best striker and the best winger about to leave as well. And it looks as if Bayern are only replacing Gnabry with a better player.

All stars would need to align for Bayern to lose the title, mind. I really hope one of the runner ups can capitalize on that but I lack imagination to truly believe it.

 

[HerrLeinad]

He's sort of highly rated and very athletic, it'll be interesting to see how he fares in the top division.




It's not like it was just some natural right that things worked out for Bayern. Mandzukic himself was a pretty decent striker and he enabled Ribery and Robben. When those two were gone Lewandowski (eventually) stepped up in a major way. Gnabry. Coman, Sane - they are firmly at least one tier below Robben, Ribery or Lewandowski.
To me it just looks like - between aging players and the ones who leave for free/cheap, Goretzka's fitness problems - Bayern are bleeding out quality ever so slowly and they need to find a couple of Kimmich tier transfers or elite talents from their academy. No one could convince me for example that Nagelsmann would rather have Mane upfront than Lewandowski, De Ligt will probably be a pretty good signing, but it's €80m to compensate for something that, listening to Kahn, was lost for free when Alaba left.

You talk again about individual players instead of the overall team. People could also have said that Schweinsteiger, Mandzukic and co. are a level below Beckenbauer, Gerd Müller etc.
I am not going to argue that any of Gnabry and so on are at the level of Ribery/Robben, there is a reason why I called them generational wingers, but that doesn't really matter because someone like Gnabry still played an exceptional CL season when we won the CL. You don't need to have a Robben or Ribery for that and it also ignores that you could argue about other parts of the team being better but even if our team isn't as good as 2013 that is still not a counterargument to my whole position because that only means the gap isn't gigantic between Bayern and Dortmund but just big and I don't mean that in an arrogant way but people try to downplay the actual quality of our squad every single season.
Alaba also isn't really missed in regards to his defensive qualities, let's remember that our defense had an even worse record with him in the season before that, we miss his quality as leader but imo his importance is still overplayed and in our CL winning season he was our weakest link in the defense including some gifts to the opponents that were luckily not taken or the team could compensate for (like his own goal against Barca).
What we didn't manage to do is to IMPROVE on Alaba which is something that was and is needed. It's also interesting that you think we are bleeding quality despite our recent signings, someone like Musiala and our youth being the strongest it's probably ever been. That doesn't mean it will guarantee superstars for us but there are at least a number of really promising players and there has been a much bigger focus in recent years to look for such talents, Musiala didn't happen by accident, the quality of our youth recruitment has improved orders of magnitudes and I write that as someone who follows youth football very closely (Tel might be the next one on that list).
Also who cares what De Ligt costs? If we pay something for a player we can afford it so you are basically bringing up the price to relativize the player's quality but even if De Ligt is "only" another Hernandez, Upamecano etc. in the end that still gives you a certain minimal level of performance.
Your whole analysis also ignores that this isn't an old team, we have a very good and somewhat young average age so it's not like there isn't plenty of room for improvement in the whole squad. If you look at how someone like Sane is judged and then you look at his stats you kinda have to wonder what an actually well performing Sane could do. The same is true for Gnabry who most would say had an "average" season but the "average season" for this Bayern players means 14 goals and 8 assists in the league, the 9th best output in the BL last season...
You can apply this to pretty much our whole team. We have set standards so high that people tend to overcorrect anytime we show the slightest bit of weakness. I mean a player that is considered a "disappointment" with us (Süle) is now suddenly the best thing since sliced bread as soon as he signs for Dortmund and that isn't meant as dig at Süle or Dortmund but our players and teams are sometimes judged so harshly that it can distorts people's perception of our "real" quality (in comparison to other teams).
What you should ask yourself is how many players actually performed to their expected level last season and what that means... I think the answer is already obvious if you look at our transfer activities and that points to a more focussed FCB who is under pressure and might finally be motivated/bothered enough to show up more consistently because last season we simply coasted through many games.

 

[do.ob]

You talk again about individual players instead of the overall team. People could also have said that Schweinsteiger, Mandzukic and co. are a level below Beckenbauer, Gerd Müller etc.
I am not going to argue that any of Gnabry and so on are at the level of Ribery/Robben, there is a reason why I called them generational wingers, but that doesn't really matter because someone like Gnabry still played an exceptional CL season when we won the CL. You don't need to have a Robben or Ribery for that and it also ignores that you could argue about other parts of the team being better but even if our team isn't as good as 2013 that is still not a counterargument to my whole position because that only means the gap isn't gigantic between Bayern and Dortmund but just big and I don't mean that in an arrogant way but people try to downplay the actual quality of our squad every single season.

Sure ideally the team is greater than the sum of its parts, but that doesn't mean individual quality doesn't matter. In the end you always need a couple of outstanding players to make a difference. I like Gnabry, I think he's a good player, but the other side of the coin to his CL winning season is 3 goals 4 assists in his other three seasons - combined. The same can be said about Coman and Sane, they can win you the CL or they can go out to Villareal and score one goal between them in Salzburg.

Alaba also isn't really missed in regards to his defensive qualities, let's remember that our defense had an even worse record with him in the season before that, we miss his quality as leader but imo his importance is still overplayed and in our CL winning season he was our weakest link in the defense including some gifts to the opponents that were luckily not taken or the team could compensate for (like his own goal against Barca).
What we didn't manage to do is to IMPROVE on Alaba which is something that was and is needed. It's also interesting that you think we are bleeding quality despite our recent signings, someone like Musiala and our youth being the strongest it's probably ever been. That doesn't mean it will guarantee superstars for us but there are at least a number of really promising players and there has been a much bigger focus in recent years to look for such talents, Musiala didn't happen by accident, the quality of our youth recruitment has improved orders of magnitudes and I write that as someone who follows youth football very closely (Tel might be the next one on that list).
Also who cares what De Ligt costs? If we pay something for a player we can afford it so you are basically bringing up the price to relativize the player's quality but even if De Ligt is "only" another Hernandez, Upamecano etc. in the end that still gives you a certain minimal level of performance.

The way I see it Bayern can't spend like the English clubs, they have to outsmart their competition in the market. De Ligt is probably a very good player, but signing him for €80m doesn't look like outsmarting anyone to me, it's the opposite. Going for the biggest name available and paying accordingly. It's not going to kill Bayern, but it's increasing the financial pressure for other signings.

Musiala is about as much a Bayern youth player as Reyna or Sancho are for Dortmund. I'm aware that Bayern have a ton of highly rated youngsters, but it's the same I read every season about the kids at Dortmund too, bottom line: I don't care how good someone is at youth level, you're a proper world class talent if you can prove it against men and thus far Bayern's (and Dortmund's) kids seem to consistently fail that test. Just look at Moukoko.

Your whole analysis also ignores that this isn't an old team, we have a very good and somewhat young average age so it's not like there isn't plenty of room for improvement in the whole squad. If you look at how someone like Sane is judged and then you look at his stats you kinda have to wonder what an actually well performing Sane could do. The same is true for Gnabry who most would say had an "average" season but the "average season" for this Bayern players means 14 goals and 8 assists in the league, the 9th best output in the BL last season...
You can apply this to pretty much our whole team. We have set standards so high that people tend to overcorrect anytime we show the slightest bit of weakness. I mean a player that is considered a "disappointment" with us (Süle) is now suddenly the best thing since sliced bread as soon as he signs for Dortmund and that isn't meant as dig at Süle or Dortmund but our players and teams are sometimes judged so harshly that it can distorts people's perception of our "real" quality (in comparison to other teams).
What you should ask yourself is how many players actually performed to their expected level last season and what that means... I think the answer is already obvious if you look at our transfer activities and that points to a more focussed FCB who is under pressure and might finally be motivated/bothered enough to show up more consistently because last season we simply coasted through many games.

The average age may not be that old, but I think aside from Kimmich, maybe Musiala if we are optimistic about his age, all the other young-ish players are more or less filler material, by Bayern's lofty standards. I mean that in the sense that they are replaceable, that it wouldn't be a crime to sell them if a decent offer came along.
And I think to put Bayern's troubles last season down to not being bothered is quite an optimistic take. It's one thing to turn it down a notch in the league, but do you think the players weren't bothered about winning the cups? Do you think Nagelsmann took it easy on the team in his first season?

 

[Acrobat7]

The average age may not be that old, but I think aside from Kimmich, maybe Musiala if we are optimistic about his age, all the other young-ish players are more or less filler material, by Bayern's lofty standards. I mean that in the sense that they are replaceable, that it wouldn't be a crime to sell them if a decent offer came along.

Since you mentioned Kimmich, who is 27, as a young-ish player:
27: Kimmich, Goretzka
26: Hernandez, Gnabry, Sané, Coman
21: Davies
19: Musiala

I even left out Upamecano (23).

 

[do.ob]

Since you mentioned Kimmich, who is 27, as a young-ish player:
27: Kimmich, Goretzka
26: Hernandez, Gnabry, Sané, Coman
21: Davies
19: Musiala

I even left out Upamecano (23).

Gnabry, Sane and Coman are the definition of "filler" for me. They are good players, but they are decidedly not elite, not even close. If someone made a decent offer for them Bayern probably wouldn't lose any sleep trying to replace them.
Hernandez couldn't nail down a starter spot for two years. Granted he's done well last season and is quite reliable, but Bayern still feeling the need to spend €80m on a proper defensive leader is the definition of what I meant.
Goretzka I didn't mention, because his injuries have gotten out of hand. All three times Bayern were kicked out of the CL in the last four years he was either straight up out with an injury or only available in a diminished capacity.

Musiala, Davies and Upamecano are young and very talented, so I wouldn't judge them one way or the other.









Here's an article by someone, who nominated his designated "breakout player" for every single Bundesliga club. It's of course 80% wild speculation, but it gives an interesting perspective and pointed me towards a few names I wasn't really aware of yet.

 

[Blackwidow]

You call players that are first choice in the big national teams fillers?

 

[do.ob]

You call players that are first choice in the big national teams fillers?

You say that like it carries tremendous weight, but in reality Gnabry, Coman and Sane are halfway through their careers and have 0 goals or assists at international tournaments between them.

 

[stefan92]

You say that like it carries tremendous weight, but in reality Gnabry, Coman and Sane are halfway through their careers and have 0 goals or assists at international tournaments between them.

That's a truly shocking stat.

 

[KirkDuyt]

@do.ob are you happy with the Haller signing?

 

[do.ob]

A little portrait of Markus Krösche.

@do.ob are you happy with the Haller signing?

There are a lot of positives about him: at 28 he's experienced and one would hope Dortmund can hold on to him if he does well, he's succeeded at two different clubs already, in the CL and Bundesliga in particular, he brings some much needed height, he interprets his role as a team player and not just a tap-in merchant, which should fit players like Malen and Adeyemi in particular.

On the other hand he's definitely on the slow side ( though one would hope that will be balanced out by the likes of Malen and Adeyemi), he's expensive-ish by Dortmund's standards, they are basically paying for one very good CL season against weak opponents and they don't have a very good track record with this category of signing in general. Maybe his spell at West Ham should give cause for concern, but I haven't watched his games there, so I can't say whether it was him or the team.

But on paper he's probably as safe a choice as Dortmund could have hoped for and ideally Malen, Adeyemi or Moukoko eventually realize their potential, so Dortmund don't have to rely too heavily on Haller.

Is there a specific reason why you're asking me this? Some juicy revelation in Dutch media?

 

[HerrLeinad]

You say that like it carries tremendous weight, but in reality Gnabry, Coman and Sane are halfway through their careers and have 0 goals or assists at international tournaments between them.

Are you also going to use Lewandowski's underwhelming NT tournament record to question his quality?
I mean you argument here is getting kinda ridiculous. You are dismissing players just because they might not be absolute generational players and reminds me of people who dismissed Schweinsteiger, Lahm etc. as continuous losers after 2012 who never won something big.
Maybe take a look at the actual scorer/minute output of these players and then you will see they are up there with the very best in world football. Gnabry for example has already more CL goals than Hazard in his whole career so far.
I also wonder if you would question Reus' quality just based on his NT performances...

 

[do.ob]

Are you also going to use Lewandowski's underwhelming NT tournament record to question his quality?
I mean you argument here is getting kinda ridiculous. You are dismissing players just because they might not be absolute generational players and reminds me of people who dismissed Schweinsteiger, Lahm etc. as continuous losers after 2012 who never won something big.
Maybe take a look at the actual scorer/minute output of these players and then you will see they are up there with the very best in world football. Gnabry for example has already more CL goals than Hazard in his whole career so far.
I also wonder if you would question Reus' quality just based on his NT performances...

1) I didn't bring up national teams, someone else did, so I thought it fair to point out their actual record.
2) Lewandowski has to carry 10 very heavy Poles on his back and in my opinion actually had a very good tournament -relatively speaking - at the last Euros at least.
3) I'm not dismissing these players entirely, I've already said I think they are good and especially good enough to win the league.
4) Gnabry had one great season when Bayern won the CL. In his other three seasons I don't see what's special about scoring three goals and four assists in three years. And what about Hazard? Hans Jörg Butt probably has scored more goals than him in the CL.
5) How much do these goals mean anyway? Someone pointed out Bayern's great goal scoring record last season, Gnabry, Sane and Coman, all three, posted pretty good G+A numbers in the CL especially. Why? Because Bayern dumpstered their group stage opponent, only to go out with one goal in two against Villarreal.
6) What's got this to do with Reus? I won't pretend that he had a great NT career, but he's actually got 2G+1A at tournaments, so I guess mathematically he's infinitely better than Bayern's trio.

 

[horsechoker]

Bayern Munich will get relegated

 

[stefan92]

And what about Hazard? Hans Jörg Butt probably has scored more goals than him in the CL.

Had to look that up because it would have been just too funny. Sadly Butt (for those who don't know him, a keeper) scored 3 CL goals, Eden Hazard scored 9 in his career. But if you think about Thorgan Hazard you are right, he has 2