This confirms what we've been seeing all season...:
Though I think they're still understating the effect of it. Don't think they've counted the dodgy handball and other goals for (and marginal goals disallowed against, with forensic offside calls that haven't been used in other games) Spurs in this analysis.
7 point lead wouldn't be totally insurmountable once City get Laporte back.
This is such a terribly written article!
1. The table's caption says "The Anti-VAR table in January after 21 games". Liverpool haven't played 21 games.
2. They say "However, we're not just removing goals here to get the amended results. That is far too simplistic. We've developed an algorithm that takes into account many factors, such as the state of the game at that point, form, performance and relative strength, then we've got a whole new set of results based on probability of outcome."
Great, happy to hear that they are not being simplistic. Could we take a look at this algorithm? Or at least hear more about this? How exactly are these admittedly crucial factors taken into account? Without this info it's no different from some random dude's opinion. For some it will "confirm what they've been seeing all season" and for others it may not. How on earth are people allowed to write stuff like this I'll never know. Especially, if they have an academic on board they must know that they should provide readers links to more details about their fancy index!
3. They say "Manchester City have been robbed of FIVE points by VAR decisions". Apart from the surprising need to shout "FIVE", they are claiming that by correcting the wrong penalty call on Rashford, VAR has "robbed" City of 3 points.
I will admit that City have been unlucky the last few years with VAR in the sense that in 17/18 when VAR would have corrected wrong decisions against them, it was absent and in the following years when incorrect decisions went in their favour, VAR was there to correct these.