This is the reason I don't believe it:“The National Bureau of Economic Research has stated that a 25 percent return on a venture capital investment is the average”
https://www.nber.org/digest/may01/w8066.htmlHis analysis is based on 17,000 financing rounds in 8,000 companies, representing $114 billion of VC dollars, between 1987 and 2000.
and then I found this: (apparently published by Cambridge Associates)
I honestly believe the VC landscape has changed significantly since 2000 and that is mainly based on my experience in the Valley. Angel rounds (pre-seed) should be also counted as venture capital and most of those (especially the ones that fail) are never accounted for in the stats. Looking at the chart above, the period from 1987-2000 was the golden age of venture capital. Not to mention the new equity crowdfunding rules that went into effect in 2016 (Obama's JOBS act) probably added more unsophisticated investors to the pool of VCs.