Hard times: adjusting to the new reality

Katy Cat

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Aug 16, 2023
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171
I think this summer really has been the eye-opener we've needed on how bad it's got, how hard it could stay and long road ahead of us before it gets better.

Years of executive incompetence under Woodward and, especially, the scale of waste during ETH's time, has come back to bite us. In a big way.

We squandered hundreds of millions on mostly terrible buys, with minimal re-sale value - I like the quip about spending like a UCL team, but with Europa League income - tied ourselves into inflated wage deals, and completely failed to build the sort of sales capability that's becoming a norm (Chelsea and City are chief exponents*, but other clubs have shown the way there too).

We desperately need strengthening at full-back, in central defence and striker but here we are on deadline day discovering there is no money.

Turns out we were critically dependent on shifting Zirkzee (totally unsuited to the PL, he should've been moved on after the first year but we've been scrambling around trying to get loan taker in Serie A); Ugarte (yes, he's injured but we should have cut our losses much sooner); and Rashford (the most obvious example of incompetence on pay deals). That they're not going anywhere means we can't add to what's a pretty shallow, increasingly imbalanced, squad.

Turns out too, that the younger players we thought we might sell just aren't that saleable. A personal view is that we tend to over-rate many of our squad players, who simply don't have the cachet - and, partly, the experience - to be attractive to PL clubs, hence they're going to the EFL. We're left shocked and disappointed at the fees but it shouldn't be a surprise.

What does feel shocking is seeing the likes of Spurs, Villa, and Newcastle outspending us - yes, the last two have seen major player departures, the point is they're able to sell high and re-invest in the sort of emerging talent we need to be competing for, given we're not in the £100M market any time soon.

I do think INEOS is trying hard to build a better recruitment model and the number of younger players coming in is a significant sign of progress.

Anyway, it does feel like a new reality - what do you think it means for the next couple of seasons and our ability to compete?

*With all the usual caveats of course but they are good at selling - Hoovering up emerging talent is a huge part of Chelsea's model
 
Are people really looking at what Spurs and Villa are doing and thinking that should be us?
 
20 of financial feckery has us where we are. 20 years of cut backs and mild success with sporadic European football may set us right.
 
Agree in general but if funds are tight, I don't understand the need on buying 3CMs. Would've thought buying 2, would've sufficed as we'll never start those 3 in a match together. Maybe we bought Beleba after realising that we couldn't get Hall this year. Still struggling to shift players is a critical issue now.
 
Needed to upgrade the midfield. Signed 3 decent midfielders, despite Mainoo head and shoulders the best player on the pitch on Sunday.

Upgraded the front 4 last summer. All decent signings.

Decent goalie

De Ligt due to come back from injury, Martinez playing his best football at the moment. Heaven, Maguire and Yoro all capable. No big issues with Dalot and Masroui.

Could do with some back up for Luke Shaw, but Dorgu can play left back.
 
This is a bit too far, come on. We had a strong finish to the season and have addressed our worst area. The main worry is our strength in depth, but let’s just assume we go out in the R16 in the CL and the rest can only be an improvement
 
I've accepted this reality some time ago. With Glazer debt and their(+ seemingly Ineos/Ratcliffe) incompetence, United is going to stagnate and fall behind more and more. Days of competing for PL/UCL are long gone, top 4/5 seems to be the current goal/ceiling. I kinda understand the "relatively low" spending, United just doesn't generate that much money anymore, compared to competition. Only 8th place on Deloitte list. We're the new underdogs.

There is only one possible solution to this problem, and it's pretty obvious. Complete sale of the club to someone/some entity willing to wipe Glazers debt, invest and seriously compete. Don't know if someone like that even exists/would be interested.
 
philippexyz said:
I've accepted this reality some time ago. With Glazer debt and their(+ seemingly Ineos/Ratcliffe) incompetence, United is going to stagnate and fall behind more and more. Days of competing for PL/UCL are long gone, top 4/5 seems to be the current goal/ceiling. I kinda understand the "relatively low" spending, United just doesn't generate that much money anymore, compared to competition. Only 8th place on Deloitte list. We're the new underdogs.

There is only one possible solution to this problem, and it's pretty obvious. Complete sale of the club to someone/some entity willing to wipe Glazers debt, invest and seriously compete. Don't know if someone like that even exists/would be interested.
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i don’t think we’ll necessarily continue to fall. we just have to be so much smarter than we have been. if young, promising players see us giving game time to young promising players, they are likely to be open to signing for the academy or as an u18/u21 over the likes of city, liverpool and arsenal. we are never going to outspend oil and state clubs. barcelona and real madrid don’t bother trying to. they’re selling a dream and prestige. we need to get to a place where we can look to do that again. i wouldn’t have wanted my kid at united over the past 2 decades. i also wouldn’t have advised anyone to join us either. that has to change.
 
As risc averse they seem in terms of spending money, they are equally willing to risk sporting downfall, when we undoubtedly will be overwhelmed by the number of games and injuries that will hit us soon.
 
Katy Cat said:
I think this summer really has been the eye-opener we've needed on how bad it's got, how hard it could stay and long road ahead of us before it gets better.

Years of executive incompetence under Woodward and, especially, the scale of waste during ETH's time, has come back to bite us. In a big way.

We squandered hundreds of millions on mostly terrible buys, with minimal re-sale value - I like the quip about spending like a UCL team, but with Europa League income - tied ourselves into inflated wage deals, and completely failed to build the sort of sales capability that's becoming a norm (Chelsea and City are chief exponents*, but other clubs have shown the way there too).

We desperately need strengthening at full-back, in central defence and striker but here we are on deadline day discovering there is no money.

Turns out we were critically dependent on shifting Zirkzee (totally unsuited to the PL, he should've been moved on after the first year but we've been scrambling around trying to get loan taker in Serie A); Ugarte (yes, he's injured but we should have cut our losses much sooner); and Rashford (the most obvious example of incompetence on pay deals). That they're not going anywhere means we can't add to what's a pretty shallow, increasingly imbalanced, squad.

Turns out too, that the younger players we thought we might sell just aren't that saleable. A personal view is that we tend to over-rate many of our squad players, who simply don't have the cachet - and, partly, the experience - to be attractive to PL clubs, hence they're going to the EFL. We're left shocked and disappointed at the fees but it shouldn't be a surprise.

What does feel shocking is seeing the likes of Spurs, Villa, and Newcastle outspending us - yes, the last two have seen major player departures, the point is they're able to sell high and re-invest in the sort of emerging talent we need to be competing for, given we're not in the £100M market any time soon.

I do think INEOS is trying hard to build a better recruitment model and the number of younger players coming in is a significant sign of progress.

Anyway, it does feel like a new reality - what do you think it means for the next couple of seasons and our ability to compete?

*With all the usual caveats of course but they are good at selling - Hoovering up emerging talent is a huge part of Chelsea's model
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We’ve spent 15 years being told the mess is inherited, the rebuild takes time, and expectations need adjusting.
 
Squad is too thin. With the number of games looming this season I'm expecting the usual (probably defensive) injury crisis - we just have too many injury prone players. We muddled through pretty well last season mainly due to the tiny fixture list but I expect us to get properly found out this year and finish 5 - 7 if we're lucky..
 
A promoted club spent more than us? Letting that sink in…

Actually, both Coventry and Ipswich have spent more? And we more or less equal Hull.

Pathetic.
 
Let’s not forget that either Ineos or the Glazers could wipe out the debt in one go if they wanted to.

They won’t, because the status quo works as a money machine for all parties, just not the fans. They can invest as little as possible, hope to get champions league money, sign partnership deals and take out dividends each year

The downfall from Fergie is complete now; whereas there used to be at least an attempt at competing financially, now there is scratching around for “bargains” and hiring the manager least likely to complain
 
The reality is we have shite owners and we're not going to win the league again until that situation changes
 
OP has said it, the last 13 years of incompetence has thoroughly fecked us and it is coming home to haunt us. Hopefully Carrick can grind out a Champions League place again and that might bridge the gap with the finances, but I just feel we are going to keep yoyoing in and out of Europe for the forseeable.
 
Suedesi said:
We’ve spent 15 years being told the mess is inherited, the rebuild takes time, and expectations need adjusting.
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What?! We’ve spent 13 years making this mess. We’ve spent SO much bad money since Ferguson left. Ferguson hadn’t even retired 15 years ago. Until like two season ago we had spent the same if not more than every other club around us and seen no success and digging a huge financial hole. This is the first time the ‘inherited mess’ actually rings true. We still had a bit more money for some signings this summer and I wish they took more risks, but we don’t have the endless money pit that we had for about ten years.
 
The club clearly has issues to address and the legacy of such terrible recruitment. But a second year of qualifying for the Champions League would make a huge difference.

We obviously can’t go out and replicate the huge sums spent by others but there is a lot in between that and what we’ve done this window.

More could and should have been done and the issues that haven’t been addressed just carry over into next summer now. If you’ve built a good structure and data department etc then you should have more faith in it to find some value.

If we’re looking at a net spend of 250-300m over the next two years, maybe less if we fail to qualify for Champions League twice. Realistically not much generated in sales, lots of players leaving for nothing and all the current issues then we’re only going to get further behind. Also raises questions like why are we even going to even consider expensive signings as we can’t make enough of them.
 
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Recent years have hurt us but this window is bonkers, the money City are throwing around is ridiculous and I don’t think anyone can compete with that. We’re in a mess but so is football in general, where does it end. Few years we’ll see a billion pound player with the way it’s going.
 
Don't understand the complaints about not spending enough when we've been spunking money against the wall for the last 15 years. Sure we aren't stronger this year, but some form of reset and strategic rethink needs to happen. And the names we have brought in under Ineos have been on the whole better and represent better value.
 
macheda14 said:
What?! We’ve spent 13 years making this mess. We’ve spent SO much bad money since Ferguson left. Ferguson hadn’t even retired 15 years ago. Until like two season ago we had spent the same if not more than every other club around us and seen no success and digging a huge financial hole. This is the first time the ‘inherited mess’ actually rings true. We still had a bit more money for some signings this summer and I wish they took more risks, but we don’t have the endless money pit that we had for about ten years.
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I'm old enough to remember the latter Ferguson years when United sold Ronaldo for £80m and largely replaced him with Antonio Valencia for about £17m, while the club was carrying £700m-odd of Glazer-related debt.

So spare me the idea that this financial "mess" suddenly appeared two years ago. United were already being financially constrained in practice while City were assmbling the side that would eventually overtake us.

Glazer haven't spent a cent of their OWN money, it's all club generated revenue. feck them, and feck INEOS.
 
My issue with all this is that it's fine if we don't have money but then surely you need to come up with better ways to use the money you do have. You need to be trying to follow a Brighton/Brentford model rather than buying more players from them.
 
I can't say im not disappointed in this window as we needed at left back and back up striker, but part of me is relieved we haven't gone out and spent a lot on dross. The expectation is that we qualify for champions league next season and provide a good showing this year. INEOS should live and die on that. We need to be adding the 'final pieces' to be challenging come 27-28 which means getting the wallet out next summer.
 
Suedesi said:
I'm old enough to remember the latter Ferguson years when United sold Ronaldo for £80m and largely replaced him with Antonio Valencia for about £17m, while the club was carrying £700m-odd of Glazer-related debt.
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Interestingly enough, I was watching a podcast with Rooney today, and he said that the club still haven’t recovered from selling Ronaldo in 2009.
 
Drainy said:
Yeah and the club has been operating at a loss for almost 7 years now.

This should hopefully be the season we return to generating cash again..
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The club operating at a loss recently doesn’t magically mean the Glazers funded the previous decade. United generated enormous revenues, loaded itself with debt servicing their takeover, paid interest and dividends, and then repeatedly pissed the remaining money away.

The fact we’ve now finally managed to exhaust even that enormous financial advantage isn’t much of a defense of the Glazer era.

And this is exactly where the Glazers and INEOS need to invest. Surely fans should be united on that much. Wanting the owners to properly fund the football operation and infrastructure is hardly some controversial position.
 
Ralph1386 said:
Interestingly enough, I was watching a podcast with Rooney today, and he said that the club still haven’t recovered from selling Ronaldo in 2009.
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Yeah, that's pretty much how it felt from the sidelines too. Though I'll happily defer to Wazza on that one as he had a much better view of what was going on inside the club.
 
2 seasons of CL campaigns fixes this. We’re halfway there. I was genuinely hoping that we should target a title challenge given the flux in managers and Arsenal never convincing the eyes, even though are likely to be stronger than anyone else. But I will take a CL qualification right now. We need to repent for our past sins and need to learn how to sell. Get the f*cking execs to do a crash course on how to sell to Saudis/ME clubs. Without knowing how to sell, we will never be able to get the players we want as someone will likely do a Spurs and pip us by paying more. All eggs are in the Baleba basket, and whether he turns out to be a success defines the fate of this window.
Having said all that, I’d still rather our window than most of the business I’ve seen others do. A Spurs like window would’ve been celebrated on paper but unlikely to have succeeded on the pitch.
 
Window has been a disaster - looking at our midfield rebuild of Santos, Tielemans and Baleba compare to City getting Anderson, Enzo and Bouaddi is sobering.

I really like Tielemans and Baleba but given we’ve saved money getting them, it’s inexcusable to be going into the season without then spending on squad depth like a backup striker and left back.

Less net spend than Coventry and Ipswich. Around the same as Hull and Brentford.

We’ve consistently been getting huge wages off the books in the last 2/3 years - Case and Sancho gone this summer, replaced with lower wage players etc and the financial picture still isn’t there. We sold Hojlund this summer, kickback for Greenwood etc

I simply don’t believe it’s a matter of not having the money available - there’s a pattern of penny pinching at the club when we could really kick on.

The landscape has changed in terms of transfers, we are a financial giant and we have missed a golden opportunity to have an outside chance of a challenge amidst all the chaos
 
I’ve been saying for ages that we need a period of economic prudence at stability to right the ship. It’ll take 3-4 years to navigate our way out of the financial mess we put ourselves in. That requires a ton of discipline.

People want to read this as unable to compete for big signings, I read it as unwilling to overpay on players. Which I’m actually all for.

The lack of a left back is not great. Big check mark, but I don’t react to one thing and say that is indicative of everything. That’s just reactionary.

Since last summer we have performed a complete rebuild of the midfield and attack, with players in their prime, or pre-prime with exceptionally high potential.

Sesko, Cunha, Mbeumo, Tielemans, Santos, Baleba.

That’s six nailed on or potential starters. I am not sure it’s even prudent to rebuild faster than that.

If you compare it to the insanity at Spurs or Chelsea, it looks like we’ve been very inactive. But if you get your head screwed back on, it’s very exciting and sensible rebuilding.

I imagine defence is next summer, either possibility of one or two additions elsewhere. From there I expect a 2-3 per summer type deal because we’ll have a well constructed, stable squad full of players at great ages.

This period of relative frugality will ultimately put us back in a position where we don’t need constant overhauls, and can concentrate resources into one or two major signings to upgrade the squad for competition for the highest honours. But we don’t get back there without being sensible for 3-4 years.

The piper has to be paid. Woodward and the Glazers mortgaged our future through profligate incompetence. The future is now, and we are paying for it. With time, and some sense, our eventual amortisation schedule and wages to turnover ratio, will let us compete for the very elite level of players again. But we need (a) this period of sensible squad building, establishing we won’t be held to ransom on fees, and (b) to consistently qualify for the CL at the very least.

Outside of a multi-billionaire sugar daddy, there is no shortcut for sorting out the Woodward/Arnold mess. And I don’t want state ownership.

All that aside, I am personally happy that we haven’t engaged in the circus of fees this summer. The numbers thrown around are absolutely mental. Tielemans, Baleba and Santos for 150m is extraordinarily excellent and sensible business in the current market.

Our squad is very good now, but with obvious deficiencies at both full back positions. It’s good enough to be close to a title challenge, given the relative state of rivals. We aren’t there yet, but people need to stop underselling the talent in the squad and recruitment we’ve done, because it’s very healthy in both regards.
 
I worry with European football this season and a relatively unproven manager, our lack of squad depth very easily will make this idea that we need to consolidate by getting Champions League again a pipe dream.

A few key injuries (and AFCON) in December and January and we could easily be dumped out of 3 cups and fall out of top 4/5 contention
 
Suedesi said:
The club operating at a loss recently doesn’t magically mean the Glazers funded the previous decade.
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I'm saying its obvious why we're skint when all revenue is self generated and we've been running at a loss for so long..

Until we return to profit there's no cash reserves for exactly the reason you say. We're self sustained..
 
careca07 said:
Let’s not forget that either Ineos or the Glazers could wipe out the debt in one go if they wanted to.

They won’t, because the status quo works as a money machine for all parties, just not the fans. They can invest as little as possible, hope to get champions league money, sign partnership deals and take out dividends each year

The downfall from Fergie is complete now; whereas there used to be at least an attempt at competing financially, now there is scratching around for “bargains” and hiring the manager least likely to complain
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They won't because it would be giving other people money, they have 0 reason to.
 
I find this to be a very Tory way of building the team with austerity. I understand we made a lot of mistakes in the past but I am not sure that penny pinching with the way the league is right now is the way to go. We did well last season and there was a good opportunity to go hard this summer with the hope that if you get it right then you can have a team able to be regular in Cl and possible competing for title. Instead we just did the bare minimum and considering this league we can easily be out of CL spots next season and then what do you do ?
 
ItDoesntEvenMata said:
I worry with European football this season and a relatively unproven manager, our lack of squad depth very easily will make this idea that we need to consolidate by getting Champions League again a pipe dream.

A few key injuries (and AFCON) in December and January and we could easily be dumped out of 3 cups and fall out of top 4/5 contention
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Afcon starts in June.
 
Suedesi said:
I'm old enough to remember the latter Ferguson years when United sold Ronaldo for £80m and largely replaced him with Antonio Valencia for about £17m, while the club was carrying £700m-odd of Glazer-related debt.

So spare me the idea that this financial "mess" suddenly appeared two years ago. United were already being financially constrained in practice while City were assmbling the side that would eventually overtake us.

Glazer haven't spent a cent of their OWN money, it's all club generated revenue. feck them, and feck INEOS.
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Have you then just ignored the ensuing 13 years where we consistently spent a shit tonne on a lot of terrible players. We were financially in a great position for a long time, just absolutely terribly run.

Until like two season ago we were pretty much on part with City in terms of spending.

So spare me your ‘spare me’ you little spare mongerer.
 
macheda14 said:
Have you then just ignored the ensuing 13 years where we consistently spent a shit tonne on a lot of terrible players. We were financially in a great position for a long time, just absolutely terribly run.

Until like two season ago we were pretty much on part with City in terms of spending.

So spare me your ‘spare me’ you little spare mongerer.
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What exactly are you arguing here?

Yes, United spent enormous sums badly for 13 years. That is the fecking point. It doesn't rebut anything I said.

Glazers bought the club with debt, extracted value from it, presided over catastrophic football management, and burned through enormous amounts of club-generated revenue.

INEOS then voluntarily bought into that ownership structure. They weren’t conscripted. If they don’t have the appetite or capital to fund the rebuild properly, that’s on them too.

So what are you actually arguing for? That because the Glazers pissed the money away, everyone should now shrug and accept years of austerity while INEOS plead poverty?

And lose the “little spare mongerer” shit. If you want to run cover for two sets of billionaire owners, crack on...
 
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