Home advantage without fans

[Mindhunter]

The Economist has published a fascinating study which points out that referees showed lesser number of cards to the away team when games are played in an empty stadium.

This may not be rocket science as we all know referees get pressurized by the home fans but this is the first time we can see the effects of that with a large data set since we had so many games played in front of empty stands. It also shows that some part of the home advantage still remains even if home fans are absent but it has definitely shrunk.

Link

 

[roonster09]

The Economist has published a fascinating study which points out that referees showed lesser number of cards to the away team when games are played in an empty stadium.

This may not be rocket science as we all know referees get pressurized by the home fans but this is the first time we can see the effects of that with a large data set since we had so many games played in front of empty stands. It also shows that some part of the home advantage still remains even if home fans are absent but it has definitely shrunk.

Link

They should also do a research on how refs are influenced by media narrative.

 

[Class of 63]

Are they showing more yellow/red cards to the home team than previously?

 

[tenpoless]

They should also do a research on how refs are influenced by media narrative.

and VAR.

 

[Mindhunter]

Are they showing more yellow/red cards to the home team than previously?

Yes. The away teams percentage of total cards have gone down which means home teams are getting more cards than before i.e., pre empty stadium.

 

[Web of Bissaka]

Cheers OP.

Not surprising, at least we got the data/stats.

 

[Class of 63]

Yes. The away teams percentage of total cards have gone down which means home teams are getting more cards than before i.e., pre empty stadium.

Just presumed that because the games aren't played at the normal intensity since the restart that there'd be fewer cards for both home and away teams so obviously the away bookings would be down.

Maybe more home players are getting booked for diving than previously.

 

[Web of Bissaka]

They should also do a research on how refs are influenced by media narrative.

Hope someone do this, would be an interesting study.

Young is affected by "diver" label before, and most recently our Dan James.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Home advantage at professional level is in big parts down to referees. So it is no surprise that VAR and empty stadiums have diminished it.

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

It’s still there. Villa’s win over Arsenal, that wouldn’t have happened at the Emirates. Bournemouth beating Leicester too. Sheffield beating Chelsea. The recent playoff with Brentford & Swansea too. Maybe it’s just a mental thing, but home advantage still matters for whatever reason. Perhaps less travel & the players being more used to the stadium/changing rooms?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

It’s still there. Villa’s win over Arsenal, that wouldn’t have happened at the Emirates. Bournemouth beating Leicester too. Sheffield beating Chelsea. The recent playoff with Brentford & Swansea too. Maybe it’s just a mental thing, but home advantage still matters for whatever reason. Perhaps less travel & the players being more used to the stadium/changing rooms?

That's anecdotal evidence and not very meaningful.

Here's some data I've compiled. It's shows the expected home advantage in goals based on bookmakers' closing odds before and after the break this season. We can see that it has basically been cut in half. I've also included the observed home bias based on actual results but these numbers are practically meaningless. The sample size is way too small which we can see by two leagues actually seeing an increase and the Bundesliga having a negative home bias.

 

[meamth]

I think the home advantage thing is dead. At least for now, until fans are back in the stadium.

https://www.skysports.com/football/...ecord-highs-has-home-advantage-been-wiped-out

 

[Pexbo]

Its been blatantly obvious to everyone since football began and not something the referees would have ever liked to have been demonstrated. At most it’s embarrassing to them, I’m not sure how you can counteract it? It shows referees are human and I certainly don’t like the idea of them being asked to adjust for it.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

I think the home advantage thing is dead. At least for now, until fans are back in the stadium.

https://www.skysports.com/football/...ecord-highs-has-home-advantage-been-wiped-out

Meaningless sample size and therefore useless and misleading article. Home advantage in the Premier League had actually increased after the lockdown just looking at the results. But we shouldn't be looking at results until we have a bigger sample. Combining the top 4 leagues gives us more data and looking at the data I had posted above we can see that home advantage has been roughly cut in half which is in line with we can observe in the betting markets. It is definitely still there.

 

[Che Guevara]

Meaningless sample size and therefore useless and misleading article. Home advantage in the Premier League had actually increased after the lockdown just looking at the results. But we shouldn't be looking at results until we have a bigger sample. Combining the top 4 leagues gives us more data and looking at the data I had posted above we can see that home advantage has been roughly cut in half which is in line with we can observe in the betting markets. It is definitely still there.

I agree that home advantage is not yet dead, but in an empty stadium it has considerably gone down as the 12th man for the home team. The Crystal Palace game at OT is a good example. In a packed stadium I can't see the referee giving Palace some of those controversial, key and game-changing decisions like the penalty incident. It's definitely a good time now to play a big team away.