I think if someone wins it without playing one of Bayern or Barca people will likely say it was an easy route to the final.
*If* Milan knock out Barcelona...
- Thread starter Cina
- Start date
Cocks out.
Being completely objective, it's a tossup between United and Bayern. But it will by no means by an "easy route".
I will
Bayern are already favourites with the bookies - the market expects Barca out. The market also favours Real over us, which is understandable. interestingly you can back AC Milan at 24-1 on Betfair - that price will tumble if they knock Barca out, and even further if they get a favourable draw, so if you think 2-0 is enough of a lead you should back them with a view to laying them and locking in your profit if they go through.
If Reading had beaten us in the FA Cup, would that have put them in with a shout?
Maybe, but let's say it's United, who will have had to defeat Real, probably Dortmund and Milan, and possibly Juve as well. Not the hardest route possible, but I wouldn't call it easy. The brilliance of Barca and Bayern obscure the quality of these other clubs IMHO.
Surprised at Juve's price. Thought that Madrid and United, who could easily go out, would be longer.
Not surprised with Bayern and Barca. Barca's tie is about 55/45 in their favour. Keep a clean sheet at home, score three, and they're through. It's not hard to see, and if they do go through, they're back favourites for the competition again.
Dortmund are still very long. If I was a betting man I'd be putting money on them on the exchange. At worst their price will drop and you can lay them.
Yes, it would. They'd have been in the quarters at home to Chelsea/Boro. They already played Chelsea and got a draw. In the cup, who knows? They could then get Blackburn in the semis and make the final. It's a huge outside shout, but you couldn't rule them out totally. Look at Bradford. They beat Wigan, and it put them in with a shout.
Should we go on to win this year's competition, it cannot be deemed "easy" no matter who we play from here on in. To knock-out the Spanish champions and second-favourites is no mean feat in itself and is enough ammunition to shut up the detractors.
who cares? They've been the favourites for the past 4 seasons and only won it in 2 of those.
Barcelona are the favourites (or were until last night), it's not really a debatable topic.
The tag of favourites means nothing to me. Point is, any top side can beat them just now.
I think Dortmund are the ones to watch because their style of play is dangerous. They've already beaten strong sides in the competition this year.
I think it's more that the first game barely counts when recalling a CL run. You're usually playing a runner up from a half decent group, and you're expected to qualify. Then you play the big sides in the quarters and semis. But if we do win, I'll be the first to remind people we knocked out the Spanish champions to do so.
I wonder what the odds would have been for Real Madrid and Barca to be knocked out in this round?
And The favourites would have to be Bayern.
And The favourites would have to be Bayern.
Right, but they're the favourites, and the thread asks who are the favourites if the favourites go out.
Not a difficult concept.
you mean bookies favourites?
If so then fair enough, if you mean in general, then that depends on if you made them favourites to begin with. I personally fancied Bayern and Madrid more because they're not quite as disasterous as Barcelona are in defence.
A 'huge outside shout' we can all agree with. They were in with a huge outside shout before they played us...
Blackburn beat Arsenal. I will lay you 1000 to 1 they won't win the cup. I will lay you 100 to 1 Milan won't win the Champions League. I will lay you a million to one that Boro won't win the Cup (which is a sort-of analogue to the hypothetical Reading), although you will not be able to bet more than a penny for me to afford the liability on that one!
fair enough.i dont have an issue with your attitude. My problem is with the general hype around them.but anyway, I don't think I have more to say about bayern
. Muller is awesome though.For me, if we make it to the next round and barca are not there, I see us being the favorites
That's not what the bookies are saying, surely?
They're odds-on to win the game, as they are against anyone at home. But scoring 3 without conceding against probably the second-best side in the world is a pretty tall order. They're good, but they're not 55/45 to win 3-0 against Bayern, surely?
I said from day one that the winner would be either Madrid or United. Whoever wins the tie, will in my opinion go on to win the Champions League.
Even if Barcelona do progress, I don't think it's their year. I don't think it's Bayerns year either.
Even if Barcelona do progress, I don't think it's their year. I don't think it's Bayerns year either.
Out of interest, what would you have given for Chelsea to win it after losing in Napoli last season? And be honest
You're probably right, but mainly because they're not playing Bayern.
The bookies will surely be making Milan favourites. You've given them a two goal handicap at the Nou Camp, if they get one Barca need four. But the bookies aren't going on probability of an outcome, they're balancing their books. People will still be backing Barca.
In fact I've just checked, Barca just over evens, Milan under. Which is about what I expected, but it doesn't apply to real life as closely as people make out.
You surely don't believe that?
Barcelona have to take the game to Milan and score 3 goals. It's not the sort of game they are used to or like. They'll have to press with a high back line and that's going to leave a lot of space to counter and Milan are going to be looking to get the ball into the box every time they get a set peice. Milan can put 10 men behind the ball and break, if they manage to get just 1 goal, Barcelona need to win by a clear margin.
I'd say it's at least 30/70 in Milan's favour.
IF, big IF...Barcelona get knocked out, it makes for a more interesting competition this year. Bayern will be installed as hot favourites, but despite Milan's victory last night, most teams would come in as second favourites to Barcelona.
I'd fancy us to win it a hell of a lot more with Barcelona out. They are the only team in the competition I feel could actually run us over, with Juve coming shortly after. This is mainly based on strength of midfield to be fair. In terms of teams I'd least want us to play my order would be 1) Barca, 2) Juve, 3) Bayern.
But their home tie is to come and it still could be a white-wash of Milan, though I wouldn't bet for that. Milan are pretty unpredictable this year, mainly inconsistency though.
I'd fancy us to win it a hell of a lot more with Barcelona out. They are the only team in the competition I feel could actually run us over, with Juve coming shortly after. This is mainly based on strength of midfield to be fair. In terms of teams I'd least want us to play my order would be 1) Barca, 2) Juve, 3) Bayern.
But their home tie is to come and it still could be a white-wash of Milan, though I wouldn't bet for that. Milan are pretty unpredictable this year, mainly inconsistency though.
Bayern would be the favourites I think. They look like the best side left bar Barca and seem to have a good blend and balance within their side. Unlike us, they've not got a noticeable weak spot that can be picked out at all. Plus they seem really hungry this year. A matter of four big games or so was what turned a treble to nothing, and they certainly deserved something last season, so there's a determination in the side.
If United can get through then I'd rate them as 2nd favourites for the competition, and after our result last week I think it's definitely possible now. My main worry though is that a side like Bayern could potentially pick apart our midfield weaknesses. We were very good against Real Madrid, but whether that luck will last or not I don't know.
Wouldn't completely rule out Juventus either. Very good side with some players in there capable of producing incredible performances on their day.
I do actually still fancy Barcelona to go through though. It's easy to forget that despite last night, Milan aren't actually that good. The fact that no one is mentioning them as favourites to win it shows us that. They've lost a lot this season and if Barcelona have one of their lethal games with Messi at his best, then winning by 3 goals wouldn't be too hard a task for them.
Heating up to be an exciting last 8 though.
If United can get through then I'd rate them as 2nd favourites for the competition, and after our result last week I think it's definitely possible now. My main worry though is that a side like Bayern could potentially pick apart our midfield weaknesses. We were very good against Real Madrid, but whether that luck will last or not I don't know.
Wouldn't completely rule out Juventus either. Very good side with some players in there capable of producing incredible performances on their day.
I do actually still fancy Barcelona to go through though. It's easy to forget that despite last night, Milan aren't actually that good. The fact that no one is mentioning them as favourites to win it shows us that. They've lost a lot this season and if Barcelona have one of their lethal games with Messi at his best, then winning by 3 goals wouldn't be too hard a task for them.
Heating up to be an exciting last 8 though.
Juve? Naah, not for me. They lack a quality striker which is a bug disadvantage. We dont rely on winning the midfield battle to win games anyways.
If it was about picking opponents i least want to play:
1- Bayern
2- Dortmund
Bayern. Not saying that because of the Arsenal tie, because we know that at the moment Arsenal are capable of making anyone look good - how we didn't score more against them ourselves at OT I'll never know. But just because they've been consistently exceptional all season. Their league form is easily the best in Europe at the moment. Struggling to see any real weaknesses in their side.
That said, I'd still rather play them than Barca. We are much better at beating teams playing Bayern's style of football than teams playing Barca's.
Us, Madrid and Juve are narrowly behind those two, with Dortmund narrowly behind us.
That said, I'd still rather play them than Barca. We are much better at beating teams playing Bayern's style of football than teams playing Barca's.
Us, Madrid and Juve are narrowly behind those two, with Dortmund narrowly behind us.
Barca haven't kept a cleansheet in 10 games, I'd expect Milan to score.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Milan play like Mourinho's Inter at the Nou Camp. No need to change anything, just defend with their lives and counter-attack.
Milan will score, it just all depends on whether Barca can score against a tight-defence.
I sure hope they get knocked out - it would make the CL more exciting and interesting, because I thought it was inevitable for them to win this season, with the form Messi is on and how well they're doing in La Liga.
Milan will score, it just all depends on whether Barca can score against a tight-defence.
I sure hope they get knocked out - it would make the CL more exciting and interesting, because I thought it was inevitable for them to win this season, with the form Messi is on and how well they're doing in La Liga.
I'm happy with the current Barça situation.
They're very likely to be out and that alone will make every other team able to dream a bit more.
The alternative, not being out, will require them to make a near perfect performance, by keeping their net empty (something they have been trouble doing recently) and score at least 3 goals. And I always admire a team capable of pulling something like this off. It doesn't happen that often.
Being that they're clearly superior to Milan in every aspect of the pitch, it's a great "so let's see what they're really worth" situation.
They're very likely to be out and that alone will make every other team able to dream a bit more.
The alternative, not being out, will require them to make a near perfect performance, by keeping their net empty (something they have been trouble doing recently) and score at least 3 goals. And I always admire a team capable of pulling something like this off. It doesn't happen that often.
Being that they're clearly superior to Milan in every aspect of the pitch, it's a great "so let's see what they're really worth" situation.
To be honest, it's partly me not getting my hopes up, and telling myself that Barca have a better chance than they probably do.
In any case, if Barca (and Messi) turn on that style, they could run four past Milan. Weighing up the probabilities, I do think it's pretty much even, it's all dependent on which Barca turn up and whether or not Milan score. Either way, I'm looking forward to it.
Milan will park a bus, a plane, a tank and a ship at the Camp Neo and hit Barca on the counter, which they are deeply vulnerable to(ask Chelsea). So I actually do expect Milan to get a goal.
I think that we have a great chance if we manage to knock Madrid out and Barca go out to Milan. As others have said, anybody can beat anybody after that. It'll be blown wide open.
I think that we have a great chance if we manage to knock Madrid out and Barca go out to Milan. As others have said, anybody can beat anybody after that. It'll be blown wide open.
Juve are quality. They win games because of their midfield and solid back line, whereas we win in completely opposite ways. Whilst they might be a quality striker short of an outstanding team, we're a midfielder or two away from that too.
A game with Dortmund would be great for me, it'd be fairly 50/50 don't get me wrong but I think Juve would prove a tougher contest especially with their discipline and experience. Dortmund are still in their infancy with the exception of their goalkeeper and Kehl. They are definitely the dark horses though.
Matter of opinion really. I just don't fancy us against teams with those perfectly efficient midfields. I don't think Bayern are as invincible as some would make out myself, though when they get into their groove they are a tough nut to crack. I just feel a midfield battle on such a big occasion can win the game. i'm not saying we lost to Barca twice on the midfield battle alone, but it played such a huge role that Rooney, Ronaldo and Hernandez were starved of the ball over the two lost finals, and they were meant to be the matchwinners.
Personally though, I can see Juve going very far in this and wouldn't be surprised if they made it to the final. It's not a perfect example, but the way they absolutely destroyed Chelsea was incredible, though Chelsea just aren't very good this season. Personal preference is Juve over Bayern for me, though I'm not trying to shit on Bayern, they too are a top side.
Why exactly are City better than Dortmund? Dortmund have won two Bundesligas in a row and spanked City home and away in the group stages...
Spot on.
Hard to argue against much of that mate but I dont think our midfield would be as badly beaten as you seem to think. They are no barca to starve us off the ball and i'd back our attackers against any backline in the world.
With dortmund, its not the team or the players that scare me. Its the system. Their insane high pressing system with fast efficient attacks would be very tough for us i reckon. we struggle against such teams. We'd get much more time on the ball vs juve and i'd expect us to make that count.
You do know Man City were outclassed and outplayed by Dortmund right? Man City does not deserve to be that high up.
If Barcelona goes out my favorites for the title would be
1. Bayern, Man Utd/Real Madrid
2. Juventus, Dortmund
3. PSG
1. Bayern, Man Utd/Real Madrid
2. Juventus, Dortmund
3. PSG
Bet on it then, you can back Milan at odds equivalent to a chance of 58%.
No Milan in there? I mean common the guys who knock out Barca surely should be included in that list don't they?
Not necessarily. Milan did play the game almost perfectly yesterday and come Camp Nou they might just do enough to go on through but, beating Barca won't automatically make them an excellent team.
Teams like Bayern, United and Juventus who have played consistently well through out the season - those are the teams I'd say become the favorites.
Real should they best us (hope to God not) - would end up being one as well - not just becasue consistently been good but, they've got Ronaldo.
Anyway - after watching Bayern play the other day, to me they are the team to beat. Even if Barca stay in the competition - Bayern to me have it all. They can go out wide or play through the middle, they are defensively sound and have a bench they can call upon to change the game from now till the final.