India politics thread

Suv666

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Supreme court will probably not strike down these Love Jihad laws being championed by the BJP despite being in direct violation of Article 21. Its scary the level of control this government has over the judiciary. Becoming more on more authoritarian every day.
 

crappycraperson

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Supreme court will probably not strike down these Love Jihad laws being championed by the BJP despite being in direct violation of Article 21. Its scary the level of control this government has over the judiciary. Becoming more on more authoritarian every day.
It is going to be a variation of anti conversion laws already in place, which were already ruled to be legal by SC decades ago. The variation is going to be Dowry laws like provisions which will permit parents/relatives to file complaints with Police.
 

VidaRed

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The state of the media :boring:
 

Suv666

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Cant see these Farmer bills standing in their current form. Too much opposition against them.
Dumb move, trying to demonise farmers by calling them separatists. The hate for Muslims is centuries old, its easy to scapegoat them. Why did these cnuts think the same strategy will work with poor downtrodden farmers is beyond me.
 

Brwned

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Is the WSJ's analysis at all accurate? Can you really attribute most of the economic decline to people choosing to save? Sounds a bit disingenuous given the scale of impact on the informal economy that so many people rely on.
 

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Is the WSJ's analysis at all accurate? Can you really attribute most of the economic decline to people choosing to save? Sounds a bit disingenuous given the scale of impact on the informal economy that so many people rely on.
Complete garbage "analysis". Not because it is portraying the wrong numbers but it is not giving proper context to them. Its lazy writing/

There are multiple things to know before you start understanding the reasons behind the GDP growth/ decline curve

(1) India was in the midst of a growth slowdown prior to the pandemic. GDP growth had slowed down from 7%+ to 4% yoy in the qtr ended Dec-19. " The rate of the country’s economic growth had stood at a six-year-low of 4.5 per cent in the previous quarter (Q2) and 6.6 per cent in the same quarter a year earlier (Q3 of FY19). India’s GDP growth in full FY19 had stood at 6.8 per cent. "

This was primarily due to missing private sector capex over the last 7-8 years as banks were unwilling to lend and demand was weak for strong companies to justify adding capacity. this resulted in weak job creation.

(2) India's lockdown was one of the most severe globally. Our dear PM chose the lockdown method much earlier than other countries. When India went into a complete lockdown towards the end of March, we had less than a thousand cases. Our lockdown was complete and draconian. This resulted in a complete shutdown of services. Eating out, local transportation, construction, home/ auto purchases, logistics for goods, non essential retail - anything discretionary was just shuttered. No - "our rights and we want to earn" nonsense. Many people lost jobs/ lots more didn't but didnt get paid beyond May and even more just went back to their villages because we had a very good monsoon season. This meant agriculture generated enough income to support influx back home.

This is very unlike the lockdowns seen anywhere else. And therefore, our GDP took a larger hit compared to the western world. Our lockdown, in various phases, lasted till August and therefore even 3QCY20 was poor.



(3) Fear. A country the size of India going into a uniform lockdown resulted in significant panic and feats of uncertainty. This caused people to to (a) focus more on savings and (b) had no avenues to spend since everything was locked down. This may have resulted in a small spike in savings rate but that is for too small a time period for it to be meaningful. India's household savings rate has been on a steady decline for the last decade and there has been no significant improvement in income levels for Indians to start saving more.



(4) Lack of funds: Unlike the western world, India doesn't have the strength to print cash and stuff it down people's throat. Most programmes are extended credit terms and loan driven. This has resulted in further encumbrance of debt at small/ informal business level at the expense of organised businesses that just used the lockdown as a reason to tighten their credit terms with their vendors and distributors. In fact, in the listed universe, I haven't seen such sharp reduction in debt in Indian companies for a while. This further hampered spending.

Now that we know the 4 reasons of why the slowdown was more severe than the rest of the world, it is also important to know how it is bouncing back.

(1) Unemployment has fallen as businesses have restarted (link).
(2) There has been an element of pent up sales - auto sales, home sales, electricals and electronics sales, rail freight, power consumption, cement consumption are all growing at double digits in November 2020 vs November 2019 (note that the base is a pre-COVID one). So its impressive.

It is understandable why the bounce back is sharp. Unlike many countries, India isn't really dependent on one sector or commodity for its GDP. Our GDP growth is a lot more linear because our incomes aren't dependent on tourism, sale of oil or even the export sector. Consumption is still relatively basic and therefore essential. Moreover, since the economy is informal, people just get employed back in a jiffy when business owners call them back to work.

Therefore, when you see WSJ put up a similar article in MArch 2021, you will see 2 quarters of growth far higher than anywhere in the world

--- BUT-----

That doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. The fact remains that India was slowing down pre-pandemic. Job creation and income growth for an average person has been broadly stagnant for the last 5 years. Banking system was overloaded with bad loans until we looked like we were turning a corner towards the end of last year and then COVID happened. Things now look like they aren't as bad as we initially feared but even getting back to pre-COVID run-rates aren't great shakes for a country that is pumping an inordinate number of people into the work force each year.

Whether this turns out to be a turning point to revert to 7% growth of whether the current growth figures are just a result of "pent up demand" which will normalise back to low single digit growth is yet to be seen. For longer term growth to go back towards 10%, India needs massive policy reforms and a need for private enterprise to reinvest in manufacturing capacities. This will create jobs. In the absence of that India will continue to struggle.


tl;dr: I don't know what will happen but WSJ analysis is weak
 

coolredwine

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Cant see these Farmer bills standing in their current form. Too much opposition against them.
Dumb move, trying to demonise farmers by calling them separatists. The hate for Muslims is centuries old, its easy to scapegoat them. Why did these cnuts think the same strategy will work with poor downtrodden farmers is beyond me.
- Activists
- Students
- Farmers

who is next?
 

pratyush_utd

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https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/p...y-ahead-of-farmers-meeting-with-centre-179001

Ludhiana MP Ravneet Bittu on Wednesday urged Shah to take control, noting that undesirable elements, including some Khalistan elements, had penetrated the protests and were hijacking the agitation.

Farmers are not being termed separatist. Khalistani sponsored elements are present and even Punjab CM who is from INC was concerned about National security implication.

Poor farmer analogue is also quite not correct. The median salary of all the farmers in India shows that Punjab and Haryana have some of the richest farmer in the country.They have been prime beneficiary of MSP and present NDA government MSP procurement.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ut-vociferous-group-over-the-silent-majority/

The three farm laws offer three basic freedoms to the farmer. One, he can now sell anywhere to anyone, freeing him from having to sell to a monopoly cartel at the APMC mandi. Second is the freedom to store inventory which was constrained so far by stocking limits in the Essential Commodities Act. This gives incentive for cold storages to come up, to whom farmers can now sell directly. Third, it gives farmers freedom to make forward contracts, transferring their risk to businessmen, leading hopefully to a freedom to lease unviable lands for a job and a share in profits.
 

Suv666

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https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/p...y-ahead-of-farmers-meeting-with-centre-179001




Farmers are not being termed separatist. Khalistani sponsored elements are present and even Punjab CM who is from INC was concerned about National security implication.

Poor farmer analogue is also quite not correct. The median salary of all the farmers in India shows that Punjab and Haryana have some of the richest farmer in the country.They have been prime beneficiary of MSP and present NDA government MSP procurement.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ut-vociferous-group-over-the-silent-majority/
:lol::lol::lol:
You cant be serious?
Farmers Khalistani
Muslims Terrorists
Students communists.
Every form of protest is a threat to the nation.
Jai Aryavat!
Yeah Punjab and Haryana have rich farmers, lets push them into poverty right? Farmers should remain poor.
So the lakhs protesting they are being misled right? I personally know lots of folks from farming families, each and everyone is staunchly against these bills. Curiously only the media is able to unearth these individuals who support these bills.
 

pratyush_utd

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:lol::lol::lol:
You cant be serious?
Farmers Khalistani
Muslims Terrorists
Students communists.
Every form of protest is a threat to the nation.
Jai Aryavat!
Yeah Punjab and Haryana have rich farmers, lets push them into poverty right? Farmers should remain poor.
So the lakhs protesting they are being misled right? I personally know lots of folks from farming families, each and everyone is staunchly against these bills. Curiously only the media is able to unearth these individuals who support these bills.

It will help if you look hard enough to find why these bills are important. I am sure Print is not one of those media organisations which you consider "bought". There is another video where Shekar Gupta has gone in much detail.

Being against something doesn't make it incorrect.

As far as Khalistani elements is concerned, it's not that surprising some elements have tried interfering with it. Government ministers including the Agricultural minister have come out and defended the farmer agitation but pointing out that unwarranted elements are trying to hijack the agitation is not completely off the mark. Why do you think Trudeau who routinely attacks India on MSP ( ironically the very thing farmers are protesting about) is coming out in support of farmer protest? Why do you think Captain Amrinder Singh is meeting with Home minister? Last I checked the MP I quoted in previous reply, isn't from NDA.

It will help if you don't go into with your personal political bias and look at the issue without any preconceived opinion. Laughing about it is quite okay but that doesn't make the issue go away.

Not interested in political fights between political parties. This bill is important for millions of farmers out there and if implemented correctly with certain guidelines to protect poor farmers from exploitation, can do wonders for our economy and farmers.

As far as this thread is concerned, I see it's just full of American media house articles. Thread is spammed with articles from Western media critiquing Indian society while having no touch with ground realities. Or writing nonsense like Nazification is complete in bold letters because of one twitter trends.
 
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berbatrick

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Shekhar has been a right-wing supporter of privatisation since at least 2003, when I started reading papers (he was editor of IE at that time). The reason he's considered part of the opposition now is because his paper covered the riots in Gujarat extensively, and he stands by that reporting and what it implied about Modi.
 

pratyush_utd

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Shekhar has been a right-wing supporter of privatisation since at least 2003, when I started reading papers (he was editor of IE at that time). The reason he's considered part of the opposition now is because his paper covered the riots in Gujarat extensively, and he stands by that reporting and what it implied about Modi.
It's not a question of right wing or left wing. Opening up market has helped almost all the sector in this country. Similar protest happened when other sectors were opened up in 91 and look how silly they look.

Do you disagree with his opinion? Do you not see how farmers are being exploited by middlemen in various parts of the country. We have surplus of wheat and rice while we import other agricultural products. Don't you think it's bit odd that we haven't rectified it.

I was reading how Congress had similar promise in their 2019 manifesto.

Edit : I am not an expert or anything but after reading arguments for and against it, I don't see any issue with this bill that can't be rectified by small adjustments. It's why I posted it here to have an actual political discussion with people who maybe more informed.
 

berbatrick

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Do you disagree with his opinion? Do you not see how farmers are being exploited by middlemen in various parts of the country. We have surplus of wheat and rice while we import other agricultural products. Don't you think it's bit odd that we haven't rectified it.
Yes I disagree. Farmers all over the west get a huge subsidy and gaurantees from the govt (look up how much cheese the US govt stockpiles). Many Indian farmers - for example, cash crops like cocoa - have been competing in the open market with western and other farmers. Those are the sectors with the highest rates of farm suicides and bankruptcies. Wheat and rice farmers have lower suicide rates. I believe that is because of the non-market mechanism of MSP and government procurement. Mandis are broken and corrupt, so the govt could try and fix them, instead of outsourcing more of its job to its favourite corporates.
 

coolredwine

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Brwned

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Complete garbage "analysis". Not because it is portraying the wrong numbers but it is not giving proper context to them. Its lazy writing/

There are multiple things to know before you start understanding the reasons behind the GDP growth/ decline curve

(1) India was in the midst of a growth slowdown prior to the pandemic. GDP growth had slowed down from 7%+ to 4% yoy in the qtr ended Dec-19. " The rate of the country’s economic growth had stood at a six-year-low of 4.5 per cent in the previous quarter (Q2) and 6.6 per cent in the same quarter a year earlier (Q3 of FY19). India’s GDP growth in full FY19 had stood at 6.8 per cent. "

This was primarily due to missing private sector capex over the last 7-8 years as banks were unwilling to lend and demand was weak for strong companies to justify adding capacity. this resulted in weak job creation.

(2) India's lockdown was one of the most severe globally. Our dear PM chose the lockdown method much earlier than other countries. When India went into a complete lockdown towards the end of March, we had less than a thousand cases. Our lockdown was complete and draconian. This resulted in a complete shutdown of services. Eating out, local transportation, construction, home/ auto purchases, logistics for goods, non essential retail - anything discretionary was just shuttered. No - "our rights and we want to earn" nonsense. Many people lost jobs/ lots more didn't but didnt get paid beyond May and even more just went back to their villages because we had a very good monsoon season. This meant agriculture generated enough income to support influx back home.

This is very unlike the lockdowns seen anywhere else. And therefore, our GDP took a larger hit compared to the western world. Our lockdown, in various phases, lasted till August and therefore even 3QCY20 was poor.



(3) Fear. A country the size of India going into a uniform lockdown resulted in significant panic and feats of uncertainty. This caused people to to (a) focus more on savings and (b) had no avenues to spend since everything was locked down. This may have resulted in a small spike in savings rate but that is for too small a time period for it to be meaningful. India's household savings rate has been on a steady decline for the last decade and there has been no significant improvement in income levels for Indians to start saving more.



(4) Lack of funds: Unlike the western world, India doesn't have the strength to print cash and stuff it down people's throat. Most programmes are extended credit terms and loan driven. This has resulted in further encumbrance of debt at small/ informal business level at the expense of organised businesses that just used the lockdown as a reason to tighten their credit terms with their vendors and distributors. In fact, in the listed universe, I haven't seen such sharp reduction in debt in Indian companies for a while. This further hampered spending.

Now that we know the 4 reasons of why the slowdown was more severe than the rest of the world, it is also important to know how it is bouncing back.

(1) Unemployment has fallen as businesses have restarted (link).
(2) There has been an element of pent up sales - auto sales, home sales, electricals and electronics sales, rail freight, power consumption, cement consumption are all growing at double digits in November 2020 vs November 2019 (note that the base is a pre-COVID one). So its impressive.

It is understandable why the bounce back is sharp. Unlike many countries, India isn't really dependent on one sector or commodity for its GDP. Our GDP growth is a lot more linear because our incomes aren't dependent on tourism, sale of oil or even the export sector. Consumption is still relatively basic and therefore essential. Moreover, since the economy is informal, people just get employed back in a jiffy when business owners call them back to work.

Therefore, when you see WSJ put up a similar article in MArch 2021, you will see 2 quarters of growth far higher than anywhere in the world

--- BUT-----

That doesn't mean everything is hunky dory. The fact remains that India was slowing down pre-pandemic. Job creation and income growth for an average person has been broadly stagnant for the last 5 years. Banking system was overloaded with bad loans until we looked like we were turning a corner towards the end of last year and then COVID happened. Things now look like they aren't as bad as we initially feared but even getting back to pre-COVID run-rates aren't great shakes for a country that is pumping an inordinate number of people into the work force each year.

Whether this turns out to be a turning point to revert to 7% growth of whether the current growth figures are just a result of "pent up demand" which will normalise back to low single digit growth is yet to be seen. For longer term growth to go back towards 10%, India needs massive policy reforms and a need for private enterprise to reinvest in manufacturing capacities. This will create jobs. In the absence of that India will continue to struggle.


tl;dr: I don't know what will happen but WSJ analysis is weak
Interesting. I thought it sounded a bit facile! Appreciate the thorough analysis
 

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Gotta love this country.

Anything to divert attention from the utter failures of the governments involved.

Just when there was increased attention on the rape cases in
Vin Diesel-lite's kingdom, this love jihad bollocks has been brought to the centrestage.
 

pratyush_utd

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After abolition of APMC in Bihar, Agriculture growth is much higher than Punjab. If MSP procurement is not provided then economy of Punjab will crumble. Even slight increase in procurement of rice and wheat from Bihar and other state will cause huge dent in their economy.

Ironically MSP procurement in Punjab and then providing it at 1Rs in Bihar is one of the reason why Bihar farmers are being crushed at the expense of Punjab and Haryana farmers.


Considering Government provided resolution to all their demand, not accepting it shows what the real issue is and who these unions are. Considering they have the option of selling in Mandi also, why is so much noise is being created. Also there were huge protest when UPA didn't allow the very same thing, which is ability to sell to corporates. I remember how pissed Capt Amrinder Singh was when same "Ambani and Adani " weren't allowed to buy from Punjab.






MSP procurement can't be given for entire farmers, as this will lead to budget bigger than entire Government budget for a fiscal year. Forcing MSP on private sector is suicidal step.


https://www.financialexpress.com/op...-price-msp-watering-a-dangerous-idea/2145202/
 
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pratyush_utd

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They even accepted air quality ordinance and electricity bill ammendment.




Attacking corporates is the easiest thing in this country.
 

berbatrick

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@pratyush_utd
There are some interesting quotes from Bihar about farmers, APMC, mandis, etc in the article I posted.

e - less growth than Bihar - western countries have consistently less GDP growth than us. That is because they start from a higher base. Punjab, a geograhically very small state, provides a sixth of our grain stock, and has been the leader on this for decades. Bihar can grow because productivity is much lower. To attribute this to the lack of MSP is insane. Further, about subsidies - once again, the largest spend by the EU is on farm subsidies. The US govt has millions of tonnes of cheese rotting in its godowns to suport the US dairy industry. Every car in the US burns ethanol to support the corn industry. Every snack in the US has corn syrup to support the corn industry. These are the people we want out farmers to compete with.
 

pratyush_utd

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@pratyush_utd
There are some interesting quotes from Bihar about farmers, APMC, mandis, etc in the article I posted.

e - less growth than Bihar - western countries have consistently less GDP growth than us. That is because they start from a higher base. Punjab, a geograhically very small state, provides a sixth of our grain stock, and has been the leader on this for decades. Bihar can grow because productivity is much lower. To attribute this to the lack of MSP is insane. Further, about subsidies - once again, the largest spend by the EU is on farm subsidies. The US govt has millions of tonnes of cheese rotting in its godowns to suport the US dairy industry. Every car in the US burns ethanol to support the corn industry. Every snack in the US has corn syrup to support the corn industry. These are the people we want out farmers to compete with.
I didn't attribute it to MSP. But procuring crops on MSP from entire country is just not possible. Infact it's cheaper to import than to buy on MSP. Government itself is losing money on MSP procurement. We have surplus in rice and wheat, this imbalance is due to MSP and almost 30% of stock is going to waste. Also I was talking about Agricultural growth which has been sustained for almost 15 years post APMC removal. Obviously there are other factor which is beyond my understanding.

As per new bill, Mandis and MSP are untouched. If farmers want to sell to Mandis, they can still do. Government will still procure for it's PDS at MSP. Having private players is only going to increase farmer option. Every country out there provides similar option to their farmers. Why should Indian farmer not get that. Infact Government has agreed to levy taxes on private buyers, which should help the economy of States.


Providing new markets and improving local food supply chain needs investment and need private players. Crop diversification is very much needed in Punjab and it needs to break free from MSP trap. Above this post I have shared Ashok Gulati interview, you can check that out.
 
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All this big brain pyrotechnics for a bill which was passed by subverting the due process. :lol:
Which begs the question(s), if it's such a good thing for farmers, why the subversion? Why no efforts to educate and stop the 'misinformation'?
 

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Indus Valley civilisation had meat-heavy diets, preference for beef, reveals study
The research offers insights into the food patterns of ancient South Asia by using lipid residue analysis.

A file photo of ancient settlement of Mohenjodaro.

The people of the Indus Valley Civilisation in northwest India had a predominantly meat-heavy diet, comprising animals like pigs, cattle, buffalo and sheep, along with dairy products, a study published in Journal of Archaeological Science has shown.

High proportions of cattle bones was also found, which may suggest a “cultural preference for beef consumption” across Indus populations, the study, titled, Lipid residues in pottery from the Indus Civilisation in northwest India, said.

The research offers insights into the food patterns of ancient South Asia by using lipid residue analysis to investigate what kinds of food items were used in ceramic vessels by people of the Indus Valley Civilisation settlements in northwest India, the present-day states of Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

Read the study here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305440320302120?via=ihub


It was led by Akshyeta Suryanarayan as part of her PhD at the University of Cambridge.

“Our study of lipid residues in Indus pottery shows a dominance of animal products in vessels, such as the meat of non-ruminant animals like pigs, ruminant animals like cattle or buffalo and sheep or goat, as well as dairy products,” Suryanarayan said, according to a press release by the Cambridge University.

The study of lipid residues involves the extraction and identification of fats and oils that have been absorbed into ancient ceramic vessels during their use in the past. It provides chemical evidence for milk, meat, and possible mixtures of products and/or plant consumption. Lipids are relatively less prone to degradation and have been discovered in pottery from archaeological contexts around the world.

On average, about 80% of the faunal assemblage from various Indus sites belong to domestic animal species, the study said. Out of these, cattle or buffalo are the most abundant – averaging between 50% and 60% of the animal bones found – with sheep and goat accounting for 10% of animal remains.


The high proportions of cattle bones may suggest a cultural preference for beef consumption across Indus populations, supplemented by the consumption of mutton/lamb,” the research said.

Wild animal species like deer, antelope, gazelle, hares, birds, and riverine/marine resources were also found in small proportions, suggesting that “these diverse resources had a place in the Indus diet”, the study notes. “The pattern is similar at the sites in northwest India, where domestic and wild mammals, and smaller proportions of birds, reptiles, riverine fish, and molluscs were consumed,” it added.

There is also evidence of hares and birds being eaten, although little evidence was gathered on whether chicken was part of the diet of Indus people, according to the study.

Besides, “ledge-shouldered jars and large storage jars at Harappa have been linked to storage of liquids such as wine and oil,’’ it said.

Suryanarayanan told The Indian Express that the study was unique as it examined the contents of the ceramic vessels recovered from the Harappan sites. “Normally there would be access to seeds or plant remains,” she added. “But through the lipid residue analysis, we can confidently ascertain that consumption of beef, goat, sheep and pig was widespread, and especially of beef.”

The Indus Valley was home to one of the world’s first large civilisations. It began nearly 5,000 years ago in an area of modern-day Pakistan and North India. There were more than 1,400 towns and cities in the Indus Valley. The biggest were Harappa and Mohenjodaro. Around 80,000 people lived in these cities.

https://scroll.in/latest/980808/indus-valley-civilisation-had-meat-heavy-diets-reveals-study

Squeaky bum time ?
 

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Indian newspaper reporter burned alive after exposing corruption


Reporters Without Borders (RSF) is appalled to learn that a newspaper reporter was burned alive in his home in a village in northern India’s Uttar Pradesh state after covering alleged local corruption and after telling the local authorities he was being threatened. All those involved in the murder must be brought to justice, RSF said.

“This is the price for reporting the truth” Rakesh Singh said on his death bed while being filmed by a colleague. A reporter for the Hindi-language daily Rashtriya Swaroop, Singh died in a hospital in Lucknow, the state capital, on 28 November, the day after being set on fire in his home in Balrampur, a village 160 km east of Lucknow.

Singh, who was also known as “Nirbhik,” sustained burns to more than 90% of his body when three men entered his home on 27 November, doused him with an alcohol-based hand sanitiser that is highly flammable, and then set fire to him and his home.

One of the three men, Keshwanand Mishra, is local village chief Sushila Devi’s son. In an article published in the newspaper, Singh had accused Devi of corruption in connection with local infrastructure projects, including the installation of solar panels,

According to the police, the three assailants had been harassing Singh prior to the attack, telling him to stop publishing anything negative about Devi, who is about to run for reelection. Arrested three days after the fire, the three men confessed to the murder and have been jailed, the police say.

The Newslaundry website quotes a colleague of Singh’s as saying, on condition of anonymity, that Singh had told Balrampur’s district magistrate that he feared for his life, but the authorities took no action.

India is ranked 142nd out of 180 countries in RSF's 2020 World Press Freedom Index.

https://rsf.org/en/news/indian-newspaper-reporter-burned-alive-after-exposing-corruption
 

VidaRed

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@pratyush_utd
There are some interesting quotes from Bihar about farmers, APMC, mandis, etc in the article I posted.

e - less growth than Bihar - western countries have consistently less GDP growth than us. That is because they start from a higher base. Punjab, a geograhically very small state, provides a sixth of our grain stock, and has been the leader on this for decades. Bihar can grow because productivity is much lower. To attribute this to the lack of MSP is insane. Further, about subsidies - once again, the largest spend by the EU is on farm subsidies. The US govt has millions of tonnes of cheese rotting in its godowns to suport the US dairy industry. Every car in the US burns ethanol to support the corn industry. Every snack in the US has corn syrup to support the corn industry. These are the people we want out farmers to compete with.
Punjab and bihar :wenger:



Yes, we must adopt the bihar model.