Indy Ref 2.0 - October 2023

[sun_tzu]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61954331

So apparently they are going to hold a legal vote with or without the agreement of the UK government in October 2023

Ahead of her statement to Holyrood later, Ms Sturgeon promised a "significant update" on how a "lawful" vote could be held without the UK government agreeing to the power transfer.
She has said her plan would show how the Scottish government intends to "forge a way forward, if necessary without a section 30 order".

I do wonder how Brexit may impact the 2nd referendum as I guess there will be a lot more focus on will Scotland apply to join the EU and what the implications would be for trade - as well as £ vs €

Will be interesting to see if Labour come out pro or against (wouldn't be surprised to see them remain neutral?)

 

[altodevil]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61954331

So apparently they are going to hold a legal vote with or without the agreement of the UK government in October 2023





I do wonder how Brexit may impact the 2nd referendum as I guess there will be a lot more focus on will Scotland apply to join the EU and what the implications would be for trade - as well as £ vs €

Will be interesting to see if Labour come out pro or against (wouldn't be surprised to see them remain neutral?)

Labour will always be against independence.

 

[phelans shorts]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61954331

So apparently they are going to hold a legal vote with or without the agreement of the UK government in October 2023





I do wonder how Brexit may impact the 2nd referendum as I guess there will be a lot more focus on will Scotland apply to join the EU and what the implications would be for trade - as well as £ vs €

Will be interesting to see if Labour come out pro or against (wouldn't be surprised to see them remain neutral?)

No chance they support it. Labour has absolutely no hope of winning without Scottish votes. That being said being against it will lose the pro votes down the line.

Labour have a long way to go to win back Scotland, and no matter what they do here it’ll hurt them down the line

 

[Dante]

Scoxit

 

[sun_tzu]

No chance they support it. Labour has absolutely no hope of winning without Scottish votes. That being said being against it will lose the pro votes down the line.

Labour have a long way to go to win back Scotland, and no matter what they do here it’ll hurt them down the line

being neutral would be the easiest way to get a coalition with the SNP as well i think

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

I've been sympathetic to and understanding of calls for another Indy Ref. I believe that the people of Scotland deserve a choice between remaining part of the UK that's outside the EU, and becoming an independent country that can join / re-join the EU. Given that more people voted to remain than leave in all 32 Scottish counting / council areas in 2016, I very much subscribed to view that they were dragged out of the EU against their will. Plus for a 3rd consecutive term there is a majority of pro-independence MSPs in Holyrood.

From Labour's perspective, the issue of Scottish independence has been devastating for them. They were the big losers from the 2014 Indy Ref, following which they were quite rightly punished for their ridiculous decision to share a platform with the Tories (there was an abiding image of Labour MPs arriving from Westminster to tell the 'common people' how to vote). They thoroughly deserved to lose those 40 seats in Scotland in 2015. And the fact that it or at least talk of Indy Ref 2 has continued to dominate the agenda in Scottish politics since 2018 at least (the SNP did miscalculate support for Indy Ref 2 in 2017), has prevented Labour from being able to mount a recovery there (alongside the general gross incompetence of their Scottish branch office).

Labour just cannot handle constitutional politics, i.e. Scottish independence or Brexit, which elicits strong opinions on either side of fence and sees them being attached both sides.

 

[Kentonio]

being neutral would be the easiest way to get a coalition with the SNP as well i think

Neutral allows the Tories to accuse them of doing deals with Sturgeon and being in favour of the break-up of the UK. The only safe (while still hurting them) option appears to be standing solid against independence while making clear they respect the will of the people.

 

[Dante]

Spain would veto Scotland's entry into the EU anyway. The independence vote is a choice between staying in the domestic union but being outside the European union; or being outside both the domestic union and the European union.

I sympathise with them. The North of England gets almost as bad a deal. But I don't see this ending well.

 

[SalfordRed18]

Spain would veto Scotland's entry into the EU anyway. The independence vote is a choice between staying in the domestic union but being outside the European union; or being outside both the domestic union and the European union.

Why?

 

[altodevil]

Spain would veto Scotland's entry into the EU anyway. The independence vote is a choice between staying in the domestic union but being outside the European union; or being outside both the domestic union and the European union.

I sympathise with them. The North of England gets almost as bad a deal. But I don't see this ending well.

That a complete myth that has been debunked countless times. That being said, if this goes ahead without Westminster agreeing or consenting, you might have this arise.

 

[Dante]

Why?

Because it would set a precedent for Catalonia to follow.

 

[maniak]

Spain would veto Scotland's entry into the EU anyway.

They've already said they wouldn't.

 

[maniak]

Because it would set a precedent for Catalonia to follow.

Their foreign minister said as long as it was legally binding and accepted by the british central government (which will never happen in catalonia's case) they would not veto.

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

Agreed, senior Spanish officials have said numerous times that they wouldn't veto an independent Scotland joining the EU.

In 2014, a major argument from the 'No' campaign (not that I thought that the 'Yes' campaign was great in terms of specifics) was that remaining in the UK was the best way for Scotland to remain in the EU. That clearly didn't turn out to be correct. Had common sense prevailed and remain won in 2016, I would say that Indy Ref 2 definitely wasn't justified regardless of the SNP's continued electoral success, the continued pro-independence majorities in Holyrood etc. But Brexit has been a seismic and most definitely material change in circumstances since 2014.

 

[Dante]

Agreed, senior Spanish officials have said numerous times that they wouldn't veto an independent Scotland joining the EU.

In 2014, a major argument from the 'No' campaign (not that I thought that the 'Yes' campaign was great in terms of specifics) was that remaining in the UK was the best way for Scotland to remain in the EU. That clearly didn't turn out to be correct. Had common sense prevailed and remain won in 2016, I would say that Indy Ref 2 definitely wasn't justified regardless of the SNP's continued electoral success, the continued pro-independence majorities in Holyrood etc. But Brexit has been a seismic and most definitely material change in circumstances since 2014.

Fair enough. At the moment, the ruling Spanish Social Workers' Party are pro-Catalan autonomy. But the next election is in 2023, and the People's Party are currently leading by 8 points.

 

[maniak]

Fair enough. At the moment, the ruling Spanish Social Workers' Party are pro-Catalan autonomy. But the next election is in 2023, and the People's Party are currently leading by 8 points.

I'm far from being an expert in spanish politics, but from the little I read, PP's current position seem to be that as long as Britain recognizes Scotland as an independent nation, they wouldn't oppose to them joining the EU. They would only oppose it it was a unilateral decision by Scotland, which is the parallel they draw with Catalonia. So I don't think the Scottish should worry too much about that.

 

[FootyGirl88]

I think Scotland will definitely leave this time round

 

[utdalltheway]

Grow a pair or go for the money?
Hmmm….they’ll go for the money.

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

I did wonder if Labour’s policy should be to support Indy Ref 2, but oppose independence itself. It would give them a clearly distinct policy there compared to the SNP, Tories, Lib Dems and Scottish Greens.

However perhaps that would be seen as too ‘wishy washy’ and ‘middle of the road’, and be attacked from both sides. I repeat, constitutional issues dominating the agenda is just terrible for Labour in general.

It goes without saying that the case for Indy Ref 2 and independence itself are very different. I think there is an extremely strong case for Indy Ref 2; Brexit being a hugely material change in circumstances since 2014, more people voting to remain than leave in all 32 Scottish council areas in 2016, the fact that there is a pro-independence majority of MSPs in Holyrood for a 3rd consecutive term, the fact that the SNP’s vote share at both of the last 2 Scottish elections is higher than any vote share that either Labour or the Tories have had at any general election since 1966 etc. However the case for independence itself, with very tough questions to answer re borders, currency, fiscal transfers etc., is significantly more difficult.

 

[altodevil]

Not happening. We are a nation of bottlers and to be fair the economic outlook is bleak. The time to leave was probably the early eighties. We are very much handcuffed to the poncy britnats for the foreseeable.

 

[Simbo]

Time to find a Scottish wifey...

 

[Berbasbullet]

Don't want them to go, couldn't blame them if they did.

 

[Glaswegian]

We're a nation of cap doffing, forelock tugging, subservient weirdos. Absolutely no chance we vote for Independence.

 

[thegregster]

Good luck with the hard border the EU would make the Scots impose.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Time to find a Scottish wifey...

I'm sure it'll be very easy to emigrate to Scotland as long as you have a skillset such as being able to spel or tell us what vegetables are meant to do.

 

[groovyalbert]

I've still never understood what currency they would switch to in the immediate aftermath of breaking from the UK, and how it would be valued in its immediacy.

 

[nimic]

I've still never understood what currency they would switch to in the immediate aftermath of breaking from the UK, and how it would be valued in its immediacy.

Wouldn't they just use the Euro? I guess they wouldn't have to do it immediately, but I assume this isn't just going to happen overnight anyway.

 

[Reiver]

I don't think the Supreme Court will say a referendum not endorsed by the Westminster is legally binding. That means the SNP running on one issue at the next election - independence. That in itself could be quite interesting.

Either way, I don't think they'll get the numbers they need. Last time, things were generally settled and the SNP lost it on the economics of independence. With the way things are now...just can't see it happening.

That being said, Brexit might play a factor but I think the most important point may well be Boris and the Tories in general.

 

[Simbo]

I'm sure it'll be very easy to emigrate to Scotland as long as you have a skillset such as being able to spel or tell us what vegetables are meant to do.

1 out of 2, on my way!

 

[groovyalbert]

Wouldn't they just use the Euro? I guess they wouldn't have to do it immediately, but I assume this isn't just going to happen overnight anyway.

They'd need to be a member of the EU to use the Euro, and they can't become an EU member whilst they're still in the UK.

So, they would need to leave the UK - presumably stop using the pound - whilst waiting for their EU application to go through. Even if that was fast-tracked, presumably that would still take a number of months at least.

That would surely cause complete economic chaos, and genuinely cause irreversible damage.

As much as I get independence from an emotional/cultural/political stand-point, I just don't get how it works practically.

Think of all the projects in energy, academia, industry that is reliant on ties to the UK. NHS Scotland may be a separate entity, but what are the military implications? Surely the British Army had ownership of all equipment and operations there? Would there be land-grabs of estates?

It's sort of mad and hard to see going well.

Edit - I also think Sturgeon is desperately trying to get this done whilst the Tories/Boris are in power, and anti-UK feelings are most visceral.

If it fails, it would give the SNP a footing to go into a coalition government in Westminster under the guise that Independence is impossible, so they'll work within the system to enact change.

 

[maniak]

They'd need to be a member of the EU to use the Euro, and they can't become an EU member whilst they're still in the UK.

So, they would need to leave the UK - presumably stop using the pound - whilst waiting for their EU application to go through. Even if that was fast-tracked, presumably that would still take a number of months at least.

That would surely cause complete economic chaos, and genuinely cause irreversible damage.

As much as I get independence from an emotional/cultural/political stand-point, I just don't get how it works practically.

Think of all the projects in energy, academia, industry that is reliant on ties to the UK. NHS Scotland may be a separate entity, but what are the military implications? Surely the British Army had ownership of all equipment and operations there? Would there be land-grabs of estates?

It's sort of mad and hard to see going well.

People will vote on emotion like they did brexit. Then, if the yes wins, politicians will have to figure it out.

I think the EU would be very accommodating to prove the english made a huge mistake, but yeah, the things you mentioned are probably more complex than brexit.

 

[nimic]

They'd need to be a member of the EU to use the Euro, and they can't become an EU member whilst they're still in the UK.

So, they would need to leave the UK - presumably stop using the pound - whilst waiting for their EU application to go through. Even if that was fast-tracked, presumably that would still take a number of months at least.

That would surely cause complete economic chaos, and genuinely cause irreversible damage.

As much as I get independence from an emotional/cultural/political stand-point, I just don't get how it works practically.

Think of all the projects in energy, academia, industry that is reliant on ties to the UK. NHS Scotland may be a separate entity, but what are the military implications? Surely the British Army had ownership of all equipment and operations there? Would there be land-grabs of estates?

It's sort of mad and hard to see going well.

Edit - I also think Sturgeon is desperately trying to get this done whilst the Tories/Boris are in power, and anti-UK feelings are most visceral.

If it fails, it would give the SNP a footing to go into a coalition government in Westminster under the guise that Independence is impossible, so they'll work within the system to enact change.

I assume the independence wouldn't happen overnight after the vote. There would have to be a transition period and everything. If they work it out with the UK, couldn't they apply for EU membership to come into effect on independence?

 

[groovyalbert]

I assume the independence wouldn't happen overnight after the vote. There would have to be a transition period and everything. If they work it out with the UK, couldn't they apply for EU membership to come into effect on independence?

It wouldn't happen over night, but I doubt it would be a smooth transition either. If you think the NI border is an issue with Brexit, imagine what this would be like! It would probably be years, if not longer before anything like that got resolved to the point at which their's a straight break from the UK to the EU for Scotland.

 

[matherto]

I know it's for the UK not GB but where would that leave NI and the British v Irish/sectarian debate?

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

Were it not for Brexit, while I don't doubt that some people would still be clamouring for Indy Ref 2, clearly support for it and independence would be noticeably lower.

Also David Cameron's ridiculous and dangerous speech the morning after the 2014 referendum, clearly fuelled support for the SNP (as did Labour stupidly sharing a platform with the Tories' during that campaign). Plus the Tories' general election campaign in 2015 centred around responding to the expected SNP tidal wave by drumming up English nationalism and anti-Scottish sentiments (alongside their series of vicious, personal attacks against Ed Miliband).

So the Brexiteers and / or Tories complaining about this and in general the intensifying calls for Indy Ref 2 over the past few years, don't really have much of a leg to stand on when they've done their level best to jeopardise the union.

Wasn't support for independence very low ahead of the 2014 referendum, before it increased noticeably during the campaign? I seemed to recall that Cameron and Osborne used the same negative campaigning style then as 2016 (though probably not quite on the same scale), making a series of dire warnings about the consequences of a 'Yes' victory, which predictably backfired. Ruth Davidson, who while I disliked her was clearly an instrumental player in that campaign and in the Tories' general revival in Scotland, was appalled and wanted them to shut up and stay away.

 

[do.ob]

Wikipedia actually has a great summary of the polling for this question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

Far less green results I would have expected, considering the announcement. Though a lot of them probably within the margin of error (campaigning).

How come Sturgeon is pushing this if the polling is so unclear and while the Ukraine crisis is probably creating a desire for stability in people? Is this about sneaking in a referendum while BoJo is still around?

 

[Camilo]

We don't deserve another choice.

It's a massive life changing decision which continues to divide the country 50/50, and we just had a fecking vote 8 years ago. We can't have another one if we change our minds.

Plenty of Scots voted for Brexit. Plenty didn't. Same across the UK. That's democracy. It was a stupid vote we should never have been given. And for some reason we continue to pretend like indyref2 is different.

What's the currency going to be? What's the border going to look like? Why are we pretending we'll get straight into the EU? Will my house be worth anything, and how will I pay my mortgage in pounds to an English lender?! Same with the car?! I know these are all details, but there are so many....we're talking about setting up a new country.

And then there's the fact that the SNP are fecking useless and have achieved nothing in 20 years. They'll be the ones having to make this work...and they don't have a clue. The state of the health service and police up here.... Everything they touch turns to shit.

The UK post Brexit will be fine - it's a long established world power which, rightly or wrongly, still has a big influence on the wider world. Scotland on the other hand... For what?! Because there's a generally more liberal political outlook right now?! That will change. It always does. We're culturally the same bloody people! It's ridiculous.

 

[711]

October next year is a long time off, a lot of unexpected things might happen that could swing it either way.

Difficult call for Sturgeon, leave it much longer and people would start to question the reason for their existence, but if they lose it will be worse.

 

[do.ob]

We don't deserve another choice.

It's a massive life changing decision which continues to divide the country 50/50, and we just had a fecking vote 8 years ago. We can't have another one if we change our minds.

Plenty of Scots voted for Brexit. Plenty didn't. Same across the UK. That's democracy. It was a stupid vote we should never have been given. And for some reason we continue to pretend like indyref2 is different.

What's the currency going to be? What's the border going to look like? Why are we pretending we'll get straight into the EU? Will my house be worth anything, and how will I pay my mortgage in pounds to an English lender?! Same with the car?! I know these are all details, but there are so many....we're talking about setting up a new country.

And then there's the fact that the SNP are fecking useless and have achieved nothing in 20 years. They'll be the ones having to make this work...and they don't have a clue. The state of the health service and police up here.... Everything they touch turns to shit.

The UK post Brexit will be fine - it's a long established world power which, rightly or wrongly, still has a big influence on the wider world. Scotland on the other hand... For what?! Because there's a generally more liberal political outlook right now?! That will change. It always does. We're culturally the same bloody people! It's ridiculous.

project fear

 

[TheGame]

Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving.