Israel/Iran Showdown

Raoul

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The Firestarter

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Would be suicidal by Assad doing this now. But this is a sentence that we find ourselves saying quite frequently these days.
 

Raoul

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Sounds like its kicking off in the Golan area between Iran and Israel.
 

2cents

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Biggest clashes on the Golan since 1974 apparently. Interestingly Netanyahu was with Putin earlier today.
 

Raoul

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Raoul

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Israelis have apparently moved a lot of armor into Golan. Sounds like a possible invasion may be in the works.
 

Raoul

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Would be suicidal by Assad doing this now. But this is a sentence that we find ourselves saying quite frequently these days.
I don't think Assad is involved in this. Sounds like Quds Force are retaliating for previous Israeli bombings and the Israelis are reciprocating.
 

Raoul

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Why would Iran start shit with Israel the day after Trump throws US-Iran diplomacy into the bonfire?
They've been waiting to retaliate for Israeli strikes on their position inside Syria, but were holding off until Trump made a final decision on the Iran deal. Now that he has, the gloves are officially off.
 

Carolina Red

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They've been waiting to retaliate for Israeli strikes on their position inside Syria, but were holding off until Trump made a final decision on the Iran deal. Now that he has, the gloves are officially off.
I’m waiting for Trump to use it in the reverse... as a “told ya so!”
 

SwansonsTache

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Do you guys think Trump, Bolton and the rest of the hawks will use Israel vs Iran as an excuse to attack? They can say that their ally is in a war, and that they are obliged to support.
 

utdalltheway

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The first casualty is the truth, as always.

The Israelis have been hitting targets in Syria for a while now and then they’re hit back at.
Rinse & repeat.
I hope Washington stays out of it, but doubt they will.
 

Raoul

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Do you guys think Trump, Bolton and the rest of the hawks will use Israel vs Iran as an excuse to attack? They can say that their ally is in a war, and that they are obliged to support.
Its the inverse. Bibi is using the fact that Trump is in office as a hedge that he can be more aggressive in dealing with Iran. Part of that is a propaganda campaign for Trump to ditch the JCPOA and part is his own actions to bomb Quds Force positions inside Syria. He likely wouldn't have done this to the extent he has if Obama was still in office. Trump has to a degree liberated him to act without worrying about US criticism if he does. He has also put on a bit of a charm offensive with Putin to cover his bases there as well, should he decide to launch a sustained air and ground campaign inside Syria.

I can't see the US attacking Iran unless the Iranians completely lose the plot and start attacking US assets in the region. Trump ultimately wants to renegotiate a bilateral version of the JCPOA on his own terms that include missiles and no Iranian interference in the region. Unless the Iranians tell him to feck off, he has no incentive to act militarily.
 

Carolina Red

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US goes to war with Iran -> Strait of Hormuz becomes a war zone -> Saudi oil supply put in jeopardy -> Russian oil supply becomes easier to obtain -> Russian oligarchs profit

The conspiratorial side of me is peaking out tonight.
 

Raoul

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US goes to war with Iran -> Strait of Hormuz becomes a war zone -> Saudi oil supply put in jeopardy -> Russian oil supply becomes easier to obtain -> Russian oligarchs profit

The conspiratorial side of me is peaking out tonight.
Or simply, the threat of conflict (or conflict itself) makes the oil price soar and the Russians just sit back and watch the cash roll in since 50% of their budget is pegged to fossil fuels.
 

Ramshock

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To be honest I'm pro Palestinian people and don't get why the west defends the aggressive Israeli state to the hilt. Whilst I wouldnt mind seeing someone stand up to them I dont think an Iran Israel conflict is good for anyone other than the usual suspects.
 

matherto

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To be honest I'm pro Palestinian people and don't get why the west defends the aggressive Israeli state to the hilt. Whilst I wouldnt mind seeing someone stand up to them I dont think an Iran Israel conflict is good for anyone other than the usual suspects.
I can't help but feel we as a world still treat Israel with kid gloves because of the Holocaust.

They as a people suffered a horrendous trauma that nobody should have to go through (but many other groups have and continue to do so) and we just sorta give them a free pass to do whatever they please because of the guilt of putting them through it.

At some people enough will be enough but I don't know what that looks like. We should forever respect them for the horrors they suffered through as they were and how the Jewish population struggled through it and they should definitely have their safe space in the world to exist but there's only so much you can tolerate before tensions boil over irreversibly isn't there?

NOTE - I know there are more than just Jewish Israelis but you guys know what I mean in general I hope.
 

Raoul

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Khamenai and Sulaymani are barking up the wrong tree if they think they can lob a few rockets into Golan and expect to not get obliterated in response.

 

Synco

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-girds-for-tehrans-revenge-as-the-price-of-getting-iran-out-of-syria/
A TOI article evaluating the situation from three days ago. According to this, Israel was firmly expecting an Iranian response to the air strikes, the overall goal is to prevent Iranian forces to dig in on its northeastern border.

Two contrasting outlooks in the article:
“Iran is in the process of building a war machine in Syria, and we are determined to prevent it from materializing on the ground,” Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former head of Military Intelligence and one-time national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told reporters on Monday.
According to Amidror, Israel, as much as Iran, is looking to keep the situation in Syria from escalating out of control and would therefore limit its retaliation as well.
The coming days will probably show if the assessment in the last quote is valid for the present clashes or not; if this confrontation will be limited for now, or if Israel decides to go a step further.

Biggest clashes on the Golan since 1974 apparently. Interestingly Netanyahu was with Putin earlier today.
Referred to as well:
Netanyahu, for instance, is reportedly set to present the information about Tehran’s preparations to strike Israel to Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow later this week. This, Israel hopes, may convince Putin that his desire for stability in Syria does not align with Tehran’s plans to use the country as a launching pad for attacks against Israel.
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God dammit

The religious nutters will be quoting Revelation in 3..2..1..
Judging by the everyday episodes you sometimes post, the place you live is really something else.
 

Synco

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Golaan is Syrian. The Israelis need to understand the notion of borders.
Borders rely on mutual acceptance, and you conveniently leave out the other side. Hezbollah isn't accepting any border in the north, Hamas isn't accepting any border in the south, Iran isn't accepting any border even behind the Golan. They don't accept Israel's existence as a whole, so the borders argument is a bit hypocritical.

As long as these forces want to meet in al Quds along with "millions of martyrs" (Nasrallah, Sinwar), Israel would be a bit stupid to act the way you demand.
 

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Borders rely on mutual acceptance, and you conveniently leave out the other side. Hezbollah isn't accepting any border in the north, Hamas isn't accepting any border in the south, Iran isn't accepting any border even behind the Golan. They don't accept Israel's existence as a whole, so the borders argument is a bit hypocritical.

As long as these forces want to meet in al Quds along with "millions of martyrs" (Nasrallah, Sinwar), Israel would be a bit stupid to ignore what's going on beyond their borders.
Borders rely on law. The occupation of the Golan violates international law.

The Syrian government and it's allies are well within their rights.
 

Synco

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Borders rely on law. The occupation of the Golan violates international law.

The Syrian government and it's allies are well within their rights.
That doesn't adress my point of the necessity of mutual acceptance of sovereignty.
 

2cents

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Borders rely on law. The occupation of the Golan violates international law.

The Syrian government and it's allies are well within their rights.
The occupation is legal - Israel took the Golan in a defensive war. It's the subsequent annexation and settlements that are problematic.

On the other hand Syria has never recognized the state of Israel.
 

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The occupation is legal - Israel took the Golan in a defensive war. It's the subsequent annexation and settlements that are problematic.

On the other hand Syria has never recognized the state of Israel.
They are technically still at war. Israel isn't suicidal enough to give the Golan to Syria because of strategic depth. They kind of figured that if Syria was to attack again the Golan is a natural buffer.
 

Nikhil

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I like Israel and Iran. Both need to stop this escalation.

Now that Iran has defeated the rebels in Syria, are they turning their guns on Israel? Awfully stupid thing to do. When Hamas lobs rockets into Southern Israel, they get obliterated in response. Iran needs to back down for their own good and Israel needs to do the same. But this looks like it will be a long drawn out conflict with both sides chucking missiles at each other.

Israel may very well launch a ground invasion into southern Syria now.
 

Sultan

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Israel/US/World wants Iran to come clean on Nuclear weapons. If disclosure matters so much Israel has never come clean on their Nuclear capabilities, although it is an open secret they do possess capabilities. Where's the outcry from the international community? Why no inspections form international atomic agencies?

Hypocrisy much!
 

2cents

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Referred to as well:
It's one of the most interesting aspects of the current situation. Iran has got a clear message from Moscow that Russia is in Syria to keep Assad in power, not to provide cover for turning southern Syria into another southern Lebanon.