It's in our hands (or not?)

[Riz]

Thought to start a new thread to avoid derailing the others on the top 4 race (and for my own amusement since the argument will likely be mute come the weekend).

In my view yes it is technically now in our hands to finish in the top 4 after the results last night and I shall tell you for why.

My claim: From now on I am assuming our optimal performance between now and the end of the season e.g. winning every game by the margin that suits us: it is not consequently possible for 2 of Leicester, Chelsea, Wolves to finish above us.*

Step 1: Given we are level with Wolves and 2 points behind Chelsea and given they play each other on the last day of the season it is impossible for both to finish above us. Either Wolves win all their remaining games to stay level with us and potentially be ahead on GD at which point we finish above Chelsea, or Wolves do not win against Chelsea in which case we finish above Wolves.

Step 2: So the question boils down to is it in our hands to finish above Leicester and yes, technically it is. Even assuming they win every game before losing to us we would finish level on points.*

*Goal difference: No matter how "unlikely" or "improbable" the situation may be, because we play Leicester in the last game the potential goal difference decider is now directly influenced by us (in our hands). Even if there GD is +10 on ours we can still win 6-0, if it's +12 on ours we can still win 7-0 etc.

I think where some people are confused is that yes it is also in Leicester's hands if they win all their games, just as it is in Chelsea's. It is not however in say Arsenal's hands, they could win every game between now and the end of the season 100-0 and still not finish in the top 4. For something to be "in our hands" does not actually mean it cannot be in someone else's in this sense of the words. That's the whole point of fair competition, on the first day of the season the league title is in everyone's hands until it's not.

Change my mind.

 

[Skeezix]

It is in everyone's hands. Everyone needs to do a good Handjob. A'ight I'm out

 

[Bilbo]

With 6 games and 18 points still to play for, its too early to actually matter.

 

[Greck]

It is in everyone's hands. Everyone needs to do a good Handjob. A'ight I'm out

And stay out

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Did I not make it clear in the other thread?

 

[prateik]

Technically .. yes.

But the fact is, we can win all our games and still not finish in the top 4 on GD..

So.. technically.. yes.. but I think "in our hands" should be used when we win our games and there is no scenario where we can miss out.. We are counting on winning all and outscoring Leicester (counting on them to not score too many)

 

[Rish Sawhney]

Technically .. yes.

But the fact is, we can win all our games and still not finish in the top 4 on GD..

So.. technically.. yes.. but I think "in our hands" should be used when we win our games and there is no scenario where we can miss out.. We are counting on winning all and outscoring Leicester (counting on them to not score too many)

Don’t think that’s reasonable. GD is part of the equation. We know the number of goal difference we need to make up as well as the points. So it is in our hands. Whether we can do it or not is another question.

 

[Infra-red]

Who cares.

We have a chance. Leicester and Chelsea currently have the advantage in the table. Hopefully we can overcome one/both of them.

 

[RashyForPM]

Who cares who’s hands it’s in? Everyone can say that it’s in theirs. We’ll say that to get in the top 4 we need to win all our games bar a draw at Leicester. If that happens, Leicester needs to drop points away at Arsenal and Spurs, which will happen considering their form. However, Leicester fans can also say that they just need to win the rest of their games. So can Chelsea. As can Wolves, with a few dropped points for their rivals in there too.

I just care about whether we actually end up in the top 4 or not. Hands are for eating, writing and various other things. Not to get a top 4 place! That’s done with your head and legs.

 

[No Love]

It is in everyone's hands. Everyone needs to do a good Handjob. A'ight I'm out

Reads like a Caf version of a No Context Hearn clip.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Don’t think that’s reasonable. GD is part of the equation. We know the number of goal difference we need to make up as well as the points. So it is in our hands. Whether we can do it or not is another question.

Both clubs have their fate in their own hands.

How do you not understand that? How old are you?

 

[Berbasbullet]

Ffs

 

[Glorio]

Oh puhlease ... Make it stop!!

 

[Relevated]

What the hell? I went to sleep thinking we're a point ahead of chelsea in number 4

 

[Alemar]

If we continue to win 3-0 every time we play, we may even have a better GD than Leicester come the last game. Although it is of course highly unlikely - if Leicester also manages to Somehow win all their games, we will probably still have worse GD than them (it’s realistic to think we catch up by 5-7 in 5 games, but hardly by more).

 

[Nickelodeon]

Let’s just focus on the next 90 mins please. I feel that we’re getting too excited creating theories about when and where Leicester and Chelsea will drop points. If we win our games, there is a good chance we will qualify given that it is highly improbable that both Chelsea and Leicester will win all their games. Equally difficult is projecting that we will win all our remaining games.

 

[Berbasbullet]

Let’s just focus on the next 90 mins please. I feel that we’re getting too excited creating theories about when and where Leicester and Chelsea will drop points. If we win our games, there is a good chance we will qualify given that it is highly improbable that both Chelsea and Leicester will win all their games.

Ridiculous isn't it, let's take it one game at a time.

 

[Rish Sawhney]

Both clubs have their fate in their own hands.

How do you not understand that? How old are you?

Where did I say its not in their hands as well? Reading comprehension man. How old are you?

 

[a_devil_inside]

Chances are Leicester, Chelsea, Wolves and ourselves will drop some points along the way still. It's still open and all to play for.

 

[Havak]

First question in Ole's Presser tomorrow:

"Do you believe you can finish in the top four?"

"Well, it's in our hands now..."

 

[BenitoSTARR]

First question in Ole's Presser tomorrow:

"Do you believe you can finish in the top four?"

"Well, it's in our hands now..."

Haha I would love if he said that!

 

[Mcking]

There's just three points between Leicester in third and Wolves in sixth. I think it will be a matter of who wins more games.

 

[Matriac]

Disappointed that the thread title doesn't include "Unpopular opinion:"

 

[amolbhatia50k]

Why are you all wasting time debating something that's completely irrelevant

 

[Pexbo]

Technically .. yes.

But the fact is, we can win all our games and still not finish in the top 4 on GD..

So.. technically.. yes.. but I think "in our hands" should be used when we win our games and there is no scenario where we can miss out.. We are counting on winning all and outscoring Leicester (counting on them to not score too many)

Assuming we beat Leicester 1-0, we need to score 4 goals for every 3 goals Leicester score. It’s entirely doable and with the form we are in that GD could be within 5 after the weekend with 5 games left to play.

It’s definitely in our hands.

 

[Nick7]

I voted incorrectly. Damn. I also don’t think it’s in our hands, it’s possible, but Leicester still have the better chance if we take away context of form. They just have to end with one goal more than us.

 

[Matriac]

Why are you all wasting time debating something that's completely irrelevant

That's speaking from a place of privilege.
What about those that doesn't have hands?!
If we have it, we shouldn't take it for granted!

 

[Scrumpet]

Thread title and poll question are completely different things, I'm fuming here.

 

[Nick7]

Thread title and poll question are completely different things, I'm fuming here.

I know. I hate when people do that

 

[paulscholes18]

Newcastle and Southampton have made it difficult after they rolled over for Leicester letting them score 14 goals earlier on in the season.

But with the way they have been playing since the new year, I can’t see them picking up 6 points away to Arsenal and Spurs

 

[Web of Bissaka]

It's in our minds (or not?)

 

[Tom Cato]

Thought to start a new thread to avoid derailing the others on the top 4 race (and for my own amusement since the argument will likely be mute come the weekend).

In my view yes it is technically now in our hands to finish in the top 4 after the results last night and I shall tell you for why.

My claim: From now on I am assuming our optimal performance between now and the end of the season e.g. winning every game by the margin that suits us: it is not consequently possible for 2 of Leicester, Chelsea, Wolves to finish above us.*

Step 1: Given we are level with Wolves and 2 points behind Chelsea and given they play each other on the last day of the season it is impossible for both to finish above us. Either Wolves win all their remaining games to stay level with us and potentially be ahead on GD at which point we finish above Chelsea, or Wolves do not win against Chelsea in which case we finish above Wolves.

Step 2: So the question boils down to is it in our hands to finish above Leicester and yes, technically it is. Even assuming they win every game before losing to us we would finish level on points.*

*Goal difference: No matter how "unlikely" or "improbable" the situation may be, because we play Leicester in the last game the potential goal difference decider is now directly influenced by us (in our hands). Even if there GD is +10 on ours we can still win 6-0, if it's +12 on ours we can still win 7-0 etc.

I think where some people are confused is that yes it is also in Leicester's hands if they win all their games, just as it is in Chelsea's. It is not however in say Arsenal's hands, they could win every game between now and the end of the season 100-0 and still not finish in the top 4. For something to be "in our hands" does not actually mean it cannot be in someone else's in this sense of the words. That's the whole point of fair competition, on the first day of the season the league title is in everyone's hands until it's not.

Change my mind.

Leicesters goal difference is +8 to ours. We face opposition with a tendency to allow goals.

Avg. GA: (1 decimal)

Bornemouth - 1.6
Aston Villa - 1.8
Southampton - 1.7
Crystal Palace - 1.1
West Ham - 1.7
Leicester - 0.9

That's 8.8 goals if we just follow the median over the next 6 games. No one in their sound mind will think that we will score barely 8 goals over the next 6 games.

Our goal difference over the last 15 games is 38 Goals Scored - 4 goals conceded. That's 2.5 gpg and 0.2 gapg. Relatively solid stats.

Bottom line. Leicesters goal difference is going to be null and void if they keep anything resembling the same form for the rest of the season. At this rate they will be out of CL contention by the time we go there for the last gameday.

 

[prateik]

Assuming we beat Leicester 1-0, we need to score 4 goals for every 3 goals Leicester score. It’s entirely doable and with the form we are in that GD could be within 5 after the weekend with 5 games left to play.

It’s definitely in our hands.

I am not sure I follow.
We have 6 games left and have a GD deficit of 9.
If we beat them 1-0, we'll have a deficit for 7 with 5 games left.


We'll have to score 1.4 goals more in every game .. If, say, Leicester win their 5 other games and have a +12 GD, us winning our remaining games and having a GD of +16 (4 for every 3) won't put us above Leicester.. We'll still be behind.

We'll both drop points.. its a pedantic discussion..

My only point was, even if we beat Leicester and win all our games, we'll still rely on Leicester to either drop points or have a worse GD (by about 6-7)..

It's in our hands if we back ourselves to substantially outscore Leicester in the remaining games.. its out of our hands as we cant control what Leicester do in their games.
Schrodinger's hands.

 

[Pexbo]

I am not sure I follow.
We have 6 games left and have a GD deficit of 9.
If we beat them 1-0, we'll have a deficit for 7 with 5 games left.


We'll have to score 1.4 goals more in every game .. If, say, Leicester win their 5 other games and have a +12 GD, us winning our remaining games and having a GD of +16 (4 for every 3) won't put us above Leicester.. We'll still be behind.

We'll both drop points.. its a pedantic discussion..

My only point was, even if we beat Leicester and win all our games, we'll still rely on Leicester to either drop points or have a worse GD (by about 6-7)..

It's in our hands if we back ourselves to substantially outscore Leicester in the remaining games.. its out of our hands as we cant control what Leicester do in their games.
Schrodinger's hands.

Sorry it was fag packet maths, so might be a bit off, and stupidly forgot goals vs count for double with GD. I guess my point was that it’s pretty much always down to goal difference given an equal starting point and a stretch of games which is essentially where we are. I think the goal difference is not insurmountable and therefore its very much in our hands.

I get your argument and I think it’s applicable if you have say 1 game to play and 15 goals to make up but at some arbitrary point the number of games and number of goals becomes reasonable and it comes down to you ensuring you better their results.

 

[JJ12]

We should be getting top 4 with the fixtures left. How many threads do we really need for the same messages.

 

[tenpoless]

No. It was in David Moyes' hands.
And He has done his job. I suppose We can lift his status from being a ManUnited bellend to a ManUnited legend now.

 

[SirAnderson]

Ffs

I can't do this again.

 

[Berbasbullet]

I can't do this again.

 

[SirAnderson]

Underlying point is definition of "in our hands":
The mere fact we require Leicester to do something in order for us to overcome them, thus makes the statement "in our hands" as per the definition, incorrect. Up until the point we do not need to rely on anyone other than ourselves to get 3rd of 4th, it is not in our hands.

On that note, I will go and sanitize mine from this thread.

 

[SirAnderson]

I can't help it, the OCD in me just can't let it go