Jadon Sancho| Staying at Dortmund for now

[The United]

I like your confidence but we would need a small miracle against Bayern.

Under Ole, you would back us against almost any top teams.

 

[DSG]

Dortmund have put out in the press that they still want 120m and they want him to sign a new contract. This to me just reads like ‘get real’ from Woody. Transfer values will decline because many clubs can’t spend this summer. It’s not going to be a sellers market.

Agree.

Cue the panic with a comment from Woodward about the state of the market. Of course, everyone who is a Man United fan thought of Sancho when we saw Woody's comments. But the more I read it, the more I think it was aimed at the Harry Kane / Tottenham reports linking us to a 200m bid. It's one thing to pay 100m for a 20 yr old who is a player of the year candidate for the Bundesliga, and another to pay 200m for a 27 year old oft-injured striker. Kane is admittedly world-class, but there is no way he's worth 200m. Neymar isn't worth 200m in this economic climate. Hell, I'm not even sure if Mbappe is worth 200m right now.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Agree.

Cue the panic with a comment from Woodward about the state of the market. Of course, everyone who is a Man United fan thought of Sancho when we saw Woody's comments. But the more I read it, the more I think it was aimed at the Harry Kane / Tottenham reports linking us to a 200m bid. It's one thing to pay 100m for a 20 yr old who is a player of the year candidate for the Bundesliga, and another to pay 200m for a 27 year old oft-injured striker. Kane is admittedly world-class, but there is no way he's worth 200m. Neymar isn't worth 200m in this economic climate. Hell, I'm not even sure if Mbappe is worth 200m right now.

There is no player worth 200 million.
None. It's absolutely ridiculous.

 

[Rocknrolla69er]

I’ve been watching this thread for a while now. Taken into consideration many different views you all have posted so far.

Add to that Woodward’s comments and here’s my take on the SANCHO deal.

I think Woodward has had enough time to see that the financial effects of this ongoing pandemic have been alarmingly negative for ALL clubs including the mighty ones (which he may not have been sure about but probably has more knowledge of now).
Hence, for starters, it will be close to impossible for any club to be able to afford SANCHO this summer. That is not to say that’s it’s impossible but in simple terms, most clubs will likely not spend the sum required to buy him, all on one player.
Let’s say there could be a club that would be willing to spend there entire (now reduced) summer transfer budget on one player, it would probably be just us. Specially keeping in mind a clubs need to fill that specific position (RW), while not ignoring other positions. Hence, if we compare us to our competitors who are also vying for SANCHO (Chelsea, Liverpool), we seem most likely to be able to succeed with just signing him (in the short term and) this summer. Liverpool would rather invest in other positions, or preferably save these funds due to the pandemic as they’re more than Ok in the RW position. Chelsea too, are worse off than us in terms (multiple) major signings needed in the short term, than just being able to survive next season with SANCHO.

Therefore, I believe that Ed is trying to tactically indicate to Dortmund that we are still interested but not at the previously stated price. The deal will most likely get done but will be dragged through to the later stages of the window, specially if other clubs continue to not show any interest, and at a price most likely lower than or at, 100 mil, as compared to 120-150 that has been previously stated.

It is understandable that Dortmund would be happy keeping him for another year or two but what many of us don’t realize is that this pandemic will have hurt German soccer way worse than EPL, once we are able to get back to normality.
Dortmund is certainly in a much worse position financially and will not benefit much by keeping him longer, in my opinion. They would have to offer him a new contract which will technically mean higher wages for the next few years, as compared to selling him now and receiving money, rather than spending.
Furthermore, if SANCHO does want to leave Germany and come back to England, he will not want to risk renewing a contract whereby it could be tougher for him to leave in the next couple years if clubs can’t stump up the funds to buy him. Which by the way, will still be at least 100 mil or more if he keeps improving at his currently unworldly pace, for his age. Hence, in the long run, it won’t make much positive difference, if any, to Dortmund financially by keeping him a while longer.
In the case that SANCHO does not renew his contract, Dortmund would again, much rather sell him now than receive less next year, while also having spent another year worth on wages.

To conclude, my hopes of us signing SANCHO are still very much alive. I only see the current comments from our club as an indication to Dortmund that we’re probably the only club genuinely interested going forward and we will not be bullied into paying a price that should now be lower due to the pandemic.
The comments are also a hint to us fans not to read too much into the papers and expect multiple signings.

For those that are logical i salute you

 

[Deery]

Dortmund want £120m, ED doesn’t want to pay said amount, simples.

 

[Cee90]

Dortmund want £120m, ED doesn’t want to pay said amount, simples.

I tend to agree, I wouldn’t read too much else into Woodward’s quotes.

I think we can get Sancho for around £70/80 million.

 

[Deery]

I tend to agree, I wouldn’t read too much else into Woodward’s quotes.

I think we can get Sancho for around £70/80 million.

£80m would be get business and hope Ed pushes for it..

 

[mav_9me]

He's got years left on his contract.

I believe he has 2 yrs left.

 

[Strelok]

Yeah understood, and it's not an unreasonable concern. Personally having watched him from the start, I'm very confident that the level of football he produces for us will be just as good as he has for Dortmund. And Hazard comparisons aren't unwarranted although obviously it's always aspirational, you can never predict something like that for sure. But I do agree with you that the numbers might not hold up to what he's produced at Dortmund, at least at first. As I say, I don't think that's too important, although the fans and the media do like stats so we have to hope people are willing to use their eyes too.

Yeah agree on the point that stats are not that important.

Dortmund would clap up United and most teams in the Prem.

Kagawa and Mkhitaryan have nothing to do with Sancho, unless, by the same logic, we are to start assuming that every import from the French league will be successful since they have provided the PL with so many stars over the years, which then poses a new set of questions since the perceived level of Ligue Un is generally accepted as lower than Bundesliga.

Yes because life is that straight forward. I'm guessing the Portugese league is great because Bruno came from there

Well nothing is straight forward in life nor football for sure. However you can't deny the fact that the Bundes or Ligue 1 are generally considered weaker than the PL. And I didn't even say so. I only said the PL is very different from the Bundes.

As far as football transfers concerned, so many cases have showed that there's basically no certainty that a player who shines in a league would do the same in another league, especially when moving to a considered tougher one. Even in the same league. Sanchez was world class at Arsenal, look how he did for us.

Of course I would love to have Sancho here, and of course I would love him to shine for us. However as @Ramshock said, there's nothing straight forward in life, nor football. Sancho doing well in the Bundes just doesn't guarantee him doing well here. My point was not him not doing well here, I just disagree with the opinion that he'd 100 % doing well here. It's all "let's wait and see" imo

And Dortmund of course wouldn't 100 % clap us and most other PL ones. Not even Bayern.

 

[gica_7]

I honestly don't see Dortmund crumbling under financial pressure like some on here seem to be anticipating. They're a pretty tight run ship and the Bundesliga is likely to return to normal long before the premier League does since their outbreak has been more successfully contained.

Financially, Dortmund is an extremely well run football club. But this crisis changes everything. No club, no company can resist to cash. If United offers 70-80 Million straight on, I don't think they can resist. Yes, there is a chance that one or two years on, the market has the potential to return what it was 2 years ago, but there is also a big chance that it won't. Transfer market has gone insane mainly because of the Neymar transfer. That was unsustainable and it was probably going to burst anyway. Sancho has 2 years left on his contract. If he doesn't renew his contract, his price tag will decrease next year regardless.

Woodward has a point, I don't think there will be a 9 figure transfer this window. I still have a feeling that Sancho will happen though.

 

[Toblerone92]

There is no player worth 200 million.
None. It's absolutely ridiculous.

Couldn’t agree more. The Neymar transfer is where it really took off but prices had been creeping up long before then. It totally warps the market and means players that would have cost £10million a few years ago are now going for £30-40million today. People talking about 40million for a 16 year old from Birmingham? Lunacy.

If anything good can come from this pandemic it’s that it will redress the gross imbalance we currently see when it comes to player transfers, as nobody is going to be able to afford these utterly absurd prices.

 

[Bondi77]

I think Ed is probably right in that there won’t be any big deals in the near future as the countries with the big leagues in Europe are the ones that have been hit hard by the virus.
It may be a bit hard to swallow for the fans who may have lost their jobs or have some financial difficulty and watching clubs splash the cash in the current climate.

 

[Moiraine]

I think the price will be around 80£

 

[RedSky]

I think Ed is probably right in that there won’t be any big deals in the near future as the countries with the big leagues in Europe are the ones that have been hit hard by the virus.
It may be a bit hard to swallow for the fans who may have lost their jobs or have some financial difficulty and watching clubs splash the cash in the current climate.

Honestly, all it takes is for Newcastles new owners to start throwing big money for average players and it makes the market mad again.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Couldn’t agree more. The Neymar transfer is where it really took off but prices had been creeping up long before then. It totally warps the market and means players that would have cost £10million a few years ago are now going for £30-40million today. People talking about 40million for a 16 year old from Birmingham? Lunacy.

If anything good can come from this pandemic it’s that it will redress the gross imbalance we currently see when it comes to player transfers, as nobody is going to be able to afford these utterly absurd prices.

Add to that Neymar is probably the biggest dick head the game has ever seen. Its oil money distorting the game and the market and it is well was destroying the game. FFP didn't really matter did it as the oil clubs didn't care to abide by the rules.

Clubs should collectively agree to end the madness including 100s of grand a week for footballers.

 

[Brightonian]

There is no player worth 200 million.
None. It's absolutely ridiculous.

They said the same thing about £100m not very long ago at all.

The fact is that no athlete's services are inherently worth anything. It's pure market economics, nothing more.

EDIT: To be clear, I'm not saying I think we or anyone else should spend £200m. Just observing that the idea of 'worth' is academic.

 

[RedRonaldo]

Funny how time changes everything. last summer Newcastle is asking 50m for Longstaff, this summer we are talking about possible 80m bid for Sancho.

 

[Inigo Montoya]

I think the price will be around 80£

That's pretty good value in these times

 

[Toblerone92]

Add to that Neymar is probably the biggest dick head the game has ever seen.

Absolute cnut. No denying his talent but I have nothing but contempt for the guy. Petulant and disrespectful, he is indicative of everything wrong with the modern game.

 

[Inigo Montoya]

Absolute cnut. No denying his talent but I have nothing but contempt for the guy. Petulant and disrespectful, he is indicative of everything wrong with the modern game.

Never a truer word posted on a football forum! Well said sir!

 

[dev1l]

Absolute cnut. No denying his talent but I have nothing but contempt for the guy. Petulant and disrespectful, he is indicative of everything wrong with the modern game.

He s very unprofessional... Almost.every year during the Brazil Carnival he happens to be injured or suspended.
https://en.as.com/en/2020/02/22/football/1582368648_934518.html

 

[Cliche Guevara]

We’re basically getting him for £70m now.

 

[BlackShark_80]

For those who still hoping to get Sancho below £100m are a bit delusional. They don't need the money and have no reason to sell him for a discounted price.

 

[SAFMUTD]

For those who still hoping to get Sancho below £100m are a bit delusional. They don't need the money and have no reason to sell him for a discounted price.

They need the money, as pretty much every club right now because of the crisis, but the fact that many in here think they’ll be selling their best asset for peanuts is just not true.

they have plenty players they will sell if in need long before deprecating Sancho, specially knowing how bad we want him and knowing we tend to overpay for every player.

100-120M will get the deal done, forgett about the 50-70M figures.

 

[Cliche Guevara]

For those who still hoping to get Sancho below £100m are a bit delusional. They don't need the money and have no reason to sell him for a discounted price.

How do they not need the money? For all we know they could be on the verge of bankruptcy again.

Dortmund’s whole model is based off the profits they make on players like Sancho. They could be fecked if his value drops significantly. They’re selling him this summer regardless. It’s how they operate.

 

[BlackShark_80]

How do they not need the money? For all we know they could be on the verge of bankruptcy again.

Dortmund’s whole model is based off the profits they make on players like Sancho. They could be fecked if his value drops significantly. They’re selling him this summer regardless. It’s how they operate.

How could they be on the verge of bankruptcy when they just donated €20m to help other clubs in Germany? Like i said i don't see any reason why they need to sell Sancho for below £100m.

 

[horsechoker]

I think the price will be around 80£

Bargain!

 

[Adnan]

How could they be on the verge of bankruptcy when they just donated €20m to help other clubs in Germany? Like i said i don't see any reason why they need to sell Sancho for below £100m.

They're far from being bankrupt due to having highly competent people running the club. But I could see Sancho leaving them for below £100m due to the player only having 2 years remaining on his contract. And then you also have to factor in the current problems faced due to the pandemic.

 

[BlackShark_80]

They're far from being bankrupt due to having highly competent people running the club. But I could see Sancho leaving them for below £100m due to the player only having 2 years remaining on his contract. And then you also have to factor in the current problems faced due to the pandemic.

I can't see it, Watzke already made it clear they won't let Sancho go cheap because of the pandemic. This was what he said:
"Even before the coronavirus outbreak, we said that we would prefer that Jadon stays with us. At the end of the day, however, you always have to respect what the player wants," Watzke told Bild am Sonntag. "I'll state clearly, that no rich club should think that during this existential crisis they can steal players from us. We don't have to sell anyone for less than they're worth."

 

[Garry Buck]

No point in going after Grealish if we plan on wasting him on the right. Sancho has to be the main target but I just can’t see us paying the money Dortmund want in these current circumstances. Maybe a swap plus some money would work? 70-80 million plus Gomes and Chong on loan or something.

 

[Cliche Guevara]

I can't see it, Watzke already made it clear they won't let Sancho go cheap because of the pandemic. This was what he said:
"Even before the coronavirus outbreak, we said that we would prefer that Jadon stays with us. At the end of the day, however, you always have to respect what the player wants," Watzke told Bild am Sonntag. "I'll state clearly, that no rich club should think that during this existential crisis they can steal players from us. We don't have to sell anyone for less than they're worth."

Yeah that’s basic business. What’s he going to say? We’re fecked so we’ll accept 50p.

 

[Adnan]

I can't see it, Watzke already made it clear they won't let Sancho go cheap because of the pandemic. This was what he said:
"Even before the coronavirus outbreak, we said that we would prefer that Jadon stays with us. At the end of the day, however, you always have to respect what the player wants," Watzke told Bild am Sonntag. "I'll state clearly, that no rich club should think that during this existential crisis they can steal players from us. We don't have to sell anyone for less than they're worth."

If Sancho stays and refuses to extend his contract, then he will go for even less next season and i'm sure Watzke will know that. So his quotes relating to the matter are pretty normal.

 

[BlackShark_80]

Yeah that’s basic business. What’s he going to say? We’re fecked so we’ll accept 50p.

Basically means Dortmund doesn't need to sell Sancho for cheap.

 

[BlackShark_80]

If Sancho stays and refuses to extend his contract, then he will go for even less next season and i'm sure Watzke will know that. So his quotes relating to the matter are pretty normal.

Even with 1 year left in his contract, Sancho would be still expensive. I mean they sold Pulisic who wasn't a starter for €64m with 1 year left in his contract.

 

[Cliche Guevara]

Basically means Dortmund doesn't need to sell Sancho for cheap.

No, basically means nothing more than that’s what he’s telling people.

 

[BlackShark_80]

No, basically means nothing more than that’s what he’s telling people.

Which mean he doesn't has any intention to lower Sancho's price.

 

[DSG]

They're far from being bankrupt due to having highly competent people running the club. But I could see Sancho leaving them for below £100m due to the player only having 2 years remaining on his contract. And then you also have to factor in the current problems faced due to the pandemic.

This is not an argument. Having highly competent people running personnel and scouting does not mean that they are not financially vulnerable. They can even have highly competent executives on the finances side of club management and STILL have liquidity issues because they didn't plan for the pandemic.

Dortmund's financial position is much more precarious than ours, and that is just a fact.

Here's Dortmund's latest financial report of 2019-2020. They had Euro 0.00 earnings per share, no profits and just 30m Euro in cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2019. They made Euro 175m...

https://aktie.bvb.de/eng/Publicatio...rterly-Financial-Report-1st-Quarter-2019-2020

Furthermore, their wage bill grew substantially with the addition of Haaland (making over 150K/week in wages). Almost 10m in player salaries per month alone. That doesn't include coaches, reserves, academy, plus all support staff. They will try to offload Witsel and other high wage earners (Balerdi with a handful of appearances but making over 125K per week???), but the market for these players is going to be very poor.

https://www.sportekz.com/football/borussia-dortmund-players-salaries/

On the other hand, United made over four times as much as Dortmund at 627m pounds. We had over 300m in cash. Do we have a higher wage bill? Yes. But our revenue is much more diversified with a smaller portion coming from football operations.

https://ir.manutd.com/~/media/Files/M/Manutd-IR/documents/2019-mu-plc-form-20-f.pdf

Look, I'm not saying that Sancho will definitely move to United and at a cut-rate price. It's possible that Dortmund will have access to cheap loan capital, that they can cut costs in other ways, that they can engage in a number of financial kung fu moves to keep Sancho. But if you really read the financial tea leaves and assume that a) Sancho is ready to move back to England, b) that he wants a better contract and c) Dortmund needs cash to run operations, they really don't have a lot of options left if the player genuinely wants to go.

 

[P-Nut]

Which mean he doesn't has any intention to lower Sancho's price.

Is what he wants to tell people.

 

[SAFMUTD]

Even with 1 year left in his contract, Sancho would be still expensive. I mean they sold Pulisic who wasn't a starter for €64m with 1 year left in his contract.

Thats because chelsea got fecked, they saw the ban comming and got ripped. No other team would have paid that much for a player like Pulisic.

 

[DSG]

There is no player worth 200 million.
None. It's absolutely ridiculous.

I mean, "worth" used figuratively, I agree. Maybe Einstein was worth 200m? Elon Musk? Whoever can hopefully solve the climate crisis?

I would argue, though, that if Messi was available for sale at, say, 20 years old, he would be worth the investment. Shirts sold, sponsorships, match day revenue, guaranteed CL, prize money, appearance fees, etc. If you look at baseline without Messi, then take the 200m, spread it over 15 years, add in his salary and compare to an average player, I believe it would be a bargain. You are basically saying that Messi doesn't add 20m per season to Barcelona's bottom line? Of course he does. In fact, he's probably underpaid and the transfer fee was probably too low.

We look at the huge number and choke, rage and rant that these are all idiots running these football clubs. False. These are huge businesses that have Harvard trained, Goldman Sachs quants running financial numbers at the top clubs. And these smart guys still missed on Coutinho and Dembele!

Building a football club is really hard. I think it's easy to look at the on-pitch performance and complain as a fan, but there is much, much more behind the scenes that we don't understand.