The day he is ready not the day he is eligible
JJ Gabriel
- Thread starter top1whoisman
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In the latest edition of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) chats to author, Dan Williamson, about his new book 'If I Hadnt Seen Such Riches' which chronicles our 1990/91 European Cup Winners Cup victory, which is a trip down memory lane for those old enough to remember it and a vital history lesson for those who don't.
Hard to tell as Rossi arrived when he was already 17. So no-one saw him play in the Parma Youth system to make any comparisons.
Well. Arsenal just had a 16 year old scored in the EPL. What I've seen from the U18 highlights, JJ is quite a talent.
Erm…
What’s the contract situation like again? I know there were rumours of him leaving. I presume the club want to give him his first pro contract before letting him loose for the world to see. I’m guessing Dowman has already signed one.
They can be offered terms from 16 but they cannot sign a professional contract until 17
And literally every major team across Europe is trying to tempt him away.
He's a Barcelona fan, and they have been pressing for him to join for years so don't be shocked if he joins them when he feels ready to leave England. Whether thats 16 or later in his career
And all it takes is a new coach who doesn’t invest the time watching the young teams. It won’t take much to say his dad I think so I’m half expecting it
At 15/16 they are offered full time scholarships. So even though they are still at school they are considered full time Academy players. Those players will play U/18 football in the U/18 Premier League and associated cups. When they reach 15 as per league rules starting dates, they can play professional football if they are good enough. That would be U/21 and the first team. They are still deemed children and loads of other rules apply.
They can only sign professional contracts at 17. They can leave school and focus of full-time football. Dowman is not a pro footballer.
There can be in a range of contract options depending on numerous factors such as history, injuries, potential etc
For example...
1 year deal with no promise of professional contract (1+0)
1 year deal and guarantee of one year pro deal at 17 (1+1)
1 year deal and guarantee of two year pro deal at 17 (1+2)
1 year deal and guarantee of three year pro deal at 17 (1+3)
Or...a 2+0, 2+1, 2+2, 2+3
I don't think scholars can be offered more than a three-year pro deal at 17 but this can change when they reach 18 and are considered adults.
So lots of kids who have been in our system often sign a two year scholarship at 15 with no guarantee of a pro deal (2+0). You hear of lots of kids being released at this time of year as their deals are coming to an end and they wont be getting pro contracts. Others will have been offered a 2+1 or a 2+2
Other kids like Obi-Martin who was at Arsenal, was 'probably' offered a 1+2 or a 1+3. He was too young to sign a pro deal immediately but we promised him a professional contract in order to get him to sign.
Obviously, once they sign a pro deal all parties involved can agree to amend that at any point once they reach 18.
So with Gabriel, when he turns 15, we could offer him a 2+3...so a two year scholarship with a guaranteed pro contract for three years. That's the best we can offer. However, his father, agent etc might only want a 2+1 in order to keep their options open.
Remember, Gabriel can't sign a pro contract anywhere in the world until he is 17, and he can't get more than a three-year pro deal anywhere else either.
I also can't see any team 'promising' any young player (or any player for that matter) guaranteed game time. So if he moves it will be for branding, he loves some other club more than United, money, or better chances at first team football in a weaker league or a smaller club.
If he keeps progressing then he will most likely be involved in our first team at some point next season so there shouldn't be any reason for him to leave.
You wouldn`t know if that guy was a kid by just looking at that Arsenal goal. Dowman seems like an early developer, looks like a fully grown adult already at 16.
JJ has insane raw talent but he looks very much like the kid he is.
You can find his Tiktok account now that he has retire
That's what I've been saying. Unlike 16yo Yamal and Dowman, JJ Gabriel is usually the smallest guy on the pitch. Which makes his u18 performances that much more impressive. There is projection for him due to this. However, that means that playing for the first team will be more difficult for him than Yamal or Dowman. So it makes sense to wait for him to grow a little more before throwing him in the deep end.
Arsenal brought a 15 year old Max Dowman off the bench vs Leeds in August when they were comfortably winning the game. I'm not saying we should be giving him regular first team minutes. But if the moment is right early next season, it would be a special moment to see him break the club record.
Have you seen how physically developed Dowman is compared to JJ. JJ still looks like a skinny 14 year old boy. He literally only turned 15 in October. He needs to develop or you run the risk of injuries. Ones of which may affect his longevity in the game
I imagine he will get a handful of cameos next season, in part to show him he's valued and make sure we keep him. Does seem like a special talent but he's also absolutely tiny and we need to be very careful for his own physical wellbeing.
Is there any actual data to connect young players having a higher risk of injury when playing senior football?
I mean it’s self-explanatory no?
I expect it depends more on body type than age. And players generally only get chucked in when they're physically ready, whatever age that may be.
Think the issue is also mostly longevity? Players starting younger burning out before their 30s seems to be a thing.
has to be made his tagline.
I'd like it to be known my 'young enough' comment was said as a joke (based on Sir Matt's "if you're good enough, you're old enough") It's gained some traction and I don't want the heat!
Well that was something that I didn't know
Do you not remember Fergie talking about it all the time?
Sorry to be lazy but I literally chucked your question at AI and I came up with this
Yes, there is substantial, data-backed evidence linking young players to a higher risk of injury when playing at senior or elite levels
, driven largely by rapid physical growth, biological maturation differences, and the intensity of adult football.
Key Findings in Data:
- Maturation-Linked Risk (PHV): Research shows young players are most vulnerable during the period of fastest growth, known as Peak Height Velocity (PHV), which usually occurs around age 14 in boys. Players are roughly 31–49% more likely to be injured 6 months after PHV due to increased bone length and lower structural density, making growth plates, tendons, and ligaments more vulnerable.
- Higher Risk in Mature/Senior Levels:Studies of academy players (aged 9–23) indicate that as players get closer to biological maturity, their injury prevalence increases. The highest injury probability during a season is found in the U17–U19 age groups (56% in males, 58% in females), which is the bridge to senior football.
- Physical Mismatches: When younger players play in senior teams, they are often smaller, lighter, and weaker than their opponents, increasing the risk of traumatic impact injuries, even though growth-related injuries (like Osgood-Schlatter) are more common in lower age groups.
- Recurrent Injuries: A 2011 study noted that younger players often lack the "injury-avoidance skills" needed to handle senior training intensities.
- Growth Rate Vulnerability: A growth rate of 7.2 cm per year or more is directly associated with a significantly higher injury risk.
ScienceDirect.com +5
- Growth Plate Vulnerability: Growth plates are weaker and more fragile than ligaments or tendons in developing athletes, making them susceptible to injuries (e.g., apophysitis).
- "Adolescent Awkwardness": Rapid bone growth can outpace muscle adaptation, leading to decreased neuromuscular control, balance, and coordination.
- Intensity Difference: Match injury incidence is significantly higher in elite/senior settings (12-41 per 1000 hours) compared to youth training sessions.
National Institutes of Health (.gov)
| Age Group | Primary Injury Risk Type | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| U12-U14 | Growth-related (apophysitis) | Rapid growth, fragile plates |
| U15-U16 | Peak Height Velocity (PHV) | Highest vulnerability to severe injury |
| U17-U19 | Muscle/Ligament Sprains | High training load, senior intensity |
That is virtually all about injuries related to growth during puberty, all of which regularly happens at youth level. Lacey, Moorhouse and McTominay had large spells out injured in the academy due to it for example, nothing to do with playing senior football.
There is no data here other than a vague line about being more susceptible to impact injuries but nothing to suggest they actually frequent them more often in a senior match compared to an u18/21s match. You can easily also say due to being weaker they are brushed off more easily meaning they don’t require high impact challenges in the first place.
Not to mention AI is full of shit anyway.
Then there should be loads of examples and studies about it no?
That’s only useful if you want general guidelines for all young players. Not very helpful at a case by case level. You just need to look at Gabriel’s size and physique (and understand physics) to know he’ll be at a higher risk of injury than most players on the pitch in a game of football featuring fully grown men. Throw in the stuff linked above re increased vulnerability during growth spurts etc and that’s clearly a risky combination.
It's not just about age, although there seems to be a bunch of stuff about developing joints being more prone to injuries ect.
He's absolutely tiny. I wouldn't be worried if Kukonki was going to start getting minutes because he's a unit. JJ makes Mata look like Dan Burn currently.
He's absolutely tiny. I wouldn't be worried if Kukonki was going to start getting minutes because he's a unit. JJ makes Mata look like Dan Burn currently.
BBC doing stories on him already
Disgusting behaviour!
Disgusting behaviour!
The AI ‘shit’ above came from various studies
Not sure what angle you’re going for here is? You asked
The stuff above literally tells you what injury types are common at JJ’s level and that they become more prone going into senior level if their bodies haven’t matured in the development stage.
As I keep saying here, he was 14 just a few months ago, he’s tiny. Yet some want to throw him to the wolves at senior level before he’s physically developed. That’s a risk as the studies show. It’s also common sense when you see the size of him versus men.
When he’s ready I’m sure that the coach (if we get one that supports youth development) will start introducing him to opportunities, small at first. We should be patient
Examples as in why we don’t usually throw children into the men’s game? Because yes we tend to not do that for obvious reasons. What do you think would happen if you yourself were to tackle a child compared to a fully grown adult? Who is more likely to get injured?
Not sure why anyone would need to explain this to you really.
That was a detailed answer to your question. It looks like no answer is going to satisfy you. You have obviously made up your mind that throwing a small-sized 15-yr old child into a high intensity adult game does not come with added risk.
I mean, we don't do it because the kid has to be talented enough to dominate at the u18s at that age, which is very very rare. So right off the bat, that keeps out 99.9% of potential examples.
I think it might also be a trend to see younger wonder kids.. these kids were born with YouTube, the amount of coaching videos, analysis etc is off the charts compared to 30 years ago, the most dedicated ones can study football for 100 hours a week if they want
There is no trend of 'more wonder kids' now in comparison to previous decades. Taking United as an example, of the 250 odd youth players we have brought through from our Academy over the years, half of them were aged 16-18 when they made their debut. That included the Busby Babes in the 1950's, the 1968 European Cup winning team, Eric Harrison's first team in the early 1980's and the Class of 1992. So lot's of young prodigy's since the 1940's. Amongst those players you had the likes of Duncan Edwards, Bobby Charlton, Alex Dawson, Johnny Giles, George Best, Nobby Stiles, Brian Kidd, Sammy Mcilroy, Arthur Albiston, Mark Hughes, Norman Whiteside, Andy Ritchie, Ryan Giggs, David Beckham, Wes Brown, Gerard Pique, Danny Welbeck, Jesse Lingard, Mason Greenwood etc
Other clubs like Chelsea and City naming just two, have long histories of youth development too.
And whilst I agree there are access to resources to improve skill development that didn't exist years ago...a players emotional intelligence, resilience, and other human factors were developed in back gardens, school playgrounds, recs, which helped in ways that young players don't have today. Kids from years ago would play all day every day...sometime two games in a day. I don't think that's better or worse compared to today...just different.
Wonder kids have always existed and always will.
reports in the papers today that JJ will be included in the summer preseason tour and given a real chance to be promoted to the first team
He will of course be fast tracked. He'll be on his way elsewhere otherwise.