Is not Wolves xg and xg against more relevant in this case? I would assume that the difference in those figures are alot less.
Yes, you are correct on that. Good point.
Wolves over-performed their xG last season. Their xG last season would have been 44.4, ie 1.17 per match.
Wolves' current xG for this season is 28. That is 0.90 per match.
So Wolves' xG last season was still 30% higher per match last season.
Yet Joao Gomes' 'Offensive Action VAEP' was still lower last season, at 0.13 vs 0.14 this. In the better performing Wolves team last season, had he been proportionately involved in their xG then one might have perhaps expected his score to have reached more like 0.18. His score being lower suggests he had little effect on the teams' xG being better, and also that the team performing better did not lift his own offensive performance.
As for the rest, I agree. The lack of change is remarkable. Really interesting to see those numbers for Declan Rice. Really look like my initial assumption where wrong. Have you seen player develop when you have looked at those numbers? Looks like the case for Rice, but what about Anderson (who went under the radar a year ago)?
It's a bit difficult to look at the performance of many players over time with the tools I have, but from scanning through the development of a number of the top performing midfielders it seems development is more a function of age than club, as players enter their peak years. This is fairly speculative, but it looks to me as if between the ages of 22 - 24or25 there can be some variability or inconsistency in performance; but the ages of 24or25 - 27 often see more visible steady progress. Rate of progress under 22 is more difficult to track with what I have, as
For Anderson though he has clearly increased from last season, albeit last season was still quite good.
2024/25 - Offensive: 0.21 ; Prevented: 0.28
2025/26 - Offensive: 0.26 ; Prevented: 0.31
It's interesting to note that Rice's results for these at West Ham at 22/23 were pretty similar overall to Anderson's, with marginally higher xThreat Prevented and marginally lower Offensive Action VAEP. Rice's biggest single jump up in both those measures has only come this season, at the age of 26/27.
Even though I can't find any examples yet of players having big jumps just from moving to a better club in the same league, one thing I do wonder, which we can't really test for, is the extent to which a player like Rice would still have managed such a big jump in performance in his peak years had he stayed at a lesser club?
But Locatelli at Juventus seems a good, and uncommon, case study example for player progression by age for the data I have that isn't warped by the influence of other factors e.g. him changing club or league.
Conveniently, to get his age for that season just add 2 to the years (in 2021/22 he was 23/24 years old, this season he is 27/28 years old.
He was already really good at 23/24, similar to where Ederson and L. Camara are on my scatter chart, but as with Rice he had some variability then really seemed to kick on at 26/27.
It is also funny that Curtis Jones always looks so good on stats. None of his coaches seem to rate him. Not Klopp. Not Slot. Not Southgate. Not Tuchel.
Again, he did still start 19 games for Liverpool last season as they won the league, which is a reasonable amount. Him not starting week in week out has probably held him back from more England caps. There is definitely some untapped potential there though - he is only just entering his peak, having turned 25 in January. A number of Liverpool fans would rather he start ahead of Mac Allister. If he has indeed fallen out with Slot and doesn't get more of the chance in future that he seemingly deserves, then I could see him doing a McTominay and moving to Serie A, and instantly becoming one of the clear best players in the league.