Firstly the math assumes that defensive opportunities scale linearly with possession, they don't. A team with 80% possession isn't just defending less they're defending in a completely different tactical shape (high press) compared to a team with 30% (low block) You're using s metric that almost guaranteed to over inflate the defensive stats of these players.
Is a team with higher possession really always defending in a high press?... Surely it would partly depend on how well they manage to advance the ball, and how worried they are about counter attacks.
And is Casemiro a player who really primarily defends at United via a high press?... He doesn't appear to be. If anything that is instigated more by eg Bruno Fernandes, yet Casemiro significantly outperforms him on the P-Adj metric.
A team winning 2-0 will often drop deep and invite pressure, naturally increasing defensive opportunities-
Then this should be reflected by teams who are more often ahead having typically less possession overall - but the opposite is the case.
If it were the case, then teams more often ahead would have their total tackles+interceptions stats
reduced by making them Pass-adjusted, given you claim that they should be spending more time dropping deep, inviting pressure and allowing the opponent the ball. But the opposite is the case, as regardless of changing game state they will still typically have more possession across the match.
However, weaker teams will often drop deep and invite pressure even from the kick-off - naturally increasing defensive opportunities. Weaker teams will tend to play less expansive football, even once they have fallen behind, or else they will be picked off by the opponent.
Most people intuitively know that the forwards at stronger teams will get more opportunities to score... the flip-side is that defensive players at weaker teams will get more opportunities to defend.
He didn't transform into a defensive monster for one game
He actually did - the whole United team played like super-charged monsters that game. Did you not watch it?
But that game vs City was also by far the one where United had the least of the ball this season at just 31.9% - this again supports the concept I've stated that your opponent having more of the ball does increase the need and opportunity for more defensive actions.
meaning Gomes spends more time than any other CM defending in emergency game states instead of stable ones, although in the most recent win against Liverpool when Wolves were never behind Gomes managed: Tackles (6) Interceptions (1) Clearances (1) Blocks (2) and was given MOTM
Your highlighting this game also actually supports my view more than anything. Although you try and twist things in saying Wolves were never behind, they weren't ahead until the 78th minute. Liverpool dominated possession throughout the entire match, totalling 65.8% of the ball. Perhaps in line with the Mainoo vs City example you gave above, a player making more tackles could merely be a function of more tackles and defending being required when playing against opponents better than you who dominate the ball. That occurs more often for the weakest teams. Weaker teams are less likely to dominate possession, whether winning, drawing or losing.
Why are you leaving out metrics like passes per defensive action?
If I had access to it I would use it. Are you able to show it?...
I'm yet to see a single major analytics site where Joao Gomes doesn't rank near the top of defensive contribution points, he's 2nd in the premier league for ball recoveries and 96th percentile for possession won. Can you show me any major site that doesn't feature Gomes among the best in the league when all these factors are taken into account?
Again, those are not relativised stats. The only defensive stats of his I have which are relativised are his tackles+interceptions. But relativising them does bring him down from one of the few highest performers for the total tackles+interceptions to having many players ahead of him. That would surely also be the case for whichever other defensive metric one would care to relativise.
Btw, if you also want to take all defensive actions in to account, Joao Gomes is also out of PL CMs 18th for blocks per 90, 29th for clearances per 90 and bottom 1/3rd percentile for defensive headers per 90 (all before adjusting for possession). He is also number 1! for, erm, fouls committed...
Pertinently, if you also look at the very much possession-neutral stat of "% of Dribblers Tackled', you'd see that Joao Gomes at 51% is merely 31st out of PL CMs. Funnily and unsurprisingly enough, those above him on this all tend to be the players who elsewhere feature above him for 'Pass-Adjusted Tackles+Interceptions', which again underlines that Joao Gomes' numbers are skewed by having more opportunities to defend (through game circumstance, plus also minutes on the pitch if you pretend to ignore per 90 stats).
Finally, when you do look at your "major analytics site" - consider that typically 50% or more of the highest players for duels, tackles, recoveries etc., both on a total and per 90 basis, come from players at the bottom 6 clubs in the table... while rarely more than a few of them are from the top 6 clubs...
Am I really supposed to believe that the bottom 6 clubs, with typically inferior players, have somehow miraculously managed to in most cases find superior players than the top 6 at winning the ball in midfield?! Or again, is there something else at play here...
You're not a serious person. Do you honestly not realise you're embarrassing yourself here? Sorry, no, constantly going on about Locatelli as if he was Keane when Juventus fans are begging for United to take him from them just demonstrates the opposite. You don't watch football, you look at statistics and graphs.