Jose Mourinho | Spurs manager

[Mr Smith]

That's not exactly it. It deduces the probability of a particular outcome in a similar situation based on a sample size of thousands of similar events. The term expected goals is very appropriate because it's about what you should objectively expect, it's simple probabilities.

Yeah your right, I was probably excessively simplistic. The point I was trying to make was that when discussing a team's performance it's something that's most relevant over a large sample size (as all stats are).

 

[Dancfc]

I just think they are completely pointless - to say a team 'should' have won when they didn't is irrelevant because they didn't win - not only that I can plainly see if a team should have won a game but didn't just by watching the game. I don't need somebody else explaining it to me via stats.

Its irrelevant in terms of the match just gone but it's is actually as accurate a foreshadower as it's possible to get.

Looking at it from last season Chelsea's XP tally was 10 higher than Spurs and 13 ahead of Arsenal, last season you both stayed close to us despite that but this year the difference has finally started to be reflected in the actual table.

 

[balaks]

Its irrelevant in terms of the match just gone but it's is actually as accurate a foreshadower as it's possible to get.

Looking at it from last season Chelsea's XP tally was 10 higher than Spurs and 13 ahead of Arsenal, last season you both stayed close to us despite that but this year the difference has finally started to be reflected in the actual table.

I'm going to predict that Spurs will finish next season higher than both Chelsea and Arsenal.

 

[broccoli]

How the haters keep talking about Jose is very telling. Imagine if he was on a high?

Regarding xG stats who are based on possiblity i never took them very seriously. Even less than total shots which a higher number may not suggest dominance, but instead, a lack of passing options and players being forced to shoot from range. Shots on target are a bit more valid but can also be shots from range with little chance of success and/or set pieces.

It's also difficult to actualy be precise with xG when different teams have so different ways of managing a full match with different periods of intensity. A younger and more naive team may try to be on the front foot more often than another team that concedes possession and tries to see out the game, even with just 1 goal up. It's hugely dependent on playing style, period of the season, objectives at stake, etc etc. So ye it will never substitute what an educated pair of eyes can perceive.

 

[SqualorVictoria]

How the haters keep talking about Jose is very telling. Imagine if he was on a high?

Regarding xG stats who are based on possiblity i never took them very seriously. Even less than total shots which a higher number may not suggest dominance, but instead, a lack of passing options and players being forced to shoot from range. Shots on target are a bit more valid but can also be shots from range with little chance of success and/or set pieces.

It's also difficult to actualy be precise with xG when different teams have so different ways of managing a full match with different periods of intensity. A younger and more naive team may try to be on the front foot more often than another team that concedes possession and tries to see out the game, even with just 1 goal up. It's hugely dependent on playing style, period of the season, objectives at stake, etc etc. So ye it will never substitute what an educated pair of eyes can perceive.

But the thing with Mourinho's Spurs is that xG only backs up what the educated pair of eyes see too. That is, they are a tad shit overall.

 

[roonster09]

How the haters keep talking about Jose is very telling. Imagine if he was on a high?

Then he wouldn't have been sacked from every club and all this discussion wouldn't have happened. He isn't at his peak, he is on decline, that's what most are saying here. Doesn't make them haters, more like they can see what he is instead of blindly worshiping him.

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

Please Mourinho save top 4 for us and please Moyes play like crap next round.

 

[Strelok]

But the thing with Mourinho's Spurs is that xG only backs up what the educated pair of eyes see too. That is, they are a tad shit overall.

 

[broccoli]

Then he wouldn't have been sacked from every club and all this discussion wouldn't have happened. He isn't at his peak, he is on decline, that's what most are saying here. Doesn't make them haters, more like they can see what he is instead of blindly worshiping him.

My opinion on stats has nothing to do with Mourinho nor i'm saying they are playing well despite xG and whatever.

Now my opinion on Jose has always been that he's one of the brightest managers in the world. He's been making some mistakes with player recruitment (largely dependent on agents but it's his choice who he affiliates with) and his staff team is relatively new. He isn't dogmatic like Pep or LVG or even Klopp who choose to use their philosophy wherever they manage. Mourinho actually adapts himself to the club and its culture, which sometimes can be his downfall.

With United he was doomed to fail simply because the mummies at OT never liked him and never made him feel at home. Still he won you a couple trophies in his first season or two. Let's see how far the loved and fully backed Ole will take you.

Yes Jose makes mistakes and I believe his Tottenham's identity is not yet clear even for him. But with a few transfers and a little more time with the players and the new staff, something good will come out. He just needs a club that trusts him completely to come back to the top.

 

[roonster09]

My opinion on stats has nothing to do with Mourinho nor i'm saying they are playing well despite xG and whatever.

Now my opinion on Jose has always been that he's one of the brightest managers in the world. He's been making some mistakes with player recruitment (largely dependent on agents but it's his choice who he affiliates with) and his staff team is relatively new. He isn't dogmatic like Pep or LVG or even Klopp who choose to use their philosophy wherever they manage. Mourinho actually adapts himself to the club and its culture, which sometimes can be his downfall.

With United he was doomed to fail simply because the mummies at OT never liked him and never made him feel at home. Still he won you a couple trophies in his first season or two. Let's see how far the loved and fully backed Ole will take you.

Yes Jose makes mistakes and I believe his Tottenham's identity is not yet clear even for him. But with a few transfers and a little more time with the players and the new staff, something good will come out. He just needs a club that trusts him completely to come back to the top.

Well your post sums up why he is on decline. We are talking about manager who said finishing 2nd was a failure, now here we are, posters justifying his couple of trophies after spending shit of money. Didn't even challenge for PL, CL for years.

His last few seasons, was in relegation zone with Chelsea when he was sacked, 6th, 2nd, 6th when he was sacked. That's a decline for a manager who used to win lot of league titles.

If he was one of the brightest managers in the world, he would have adapted to the modern game instead of falling out with every dressing room in last 10 years. If he was also one of the brightest managers then he wouldn't take up the job where he was doomed to fail.

You have blamed playes, player recruitment team, agents, staff and everyone. IMO easier thing to see here is, Jose is not the same manager anymore.

Re bold part, are you saying Jose wasn't backed? Did you see how much our wages increased and how much we spent under Jose? If not signing Perisic was not backing him then not signing Dybala/Sancho means not backing Ole.

Also even if Ole don't win a thing here, it won't change anything about Jose and his time here.

 

[Josh 76]

"If I was selfish I would say Spurs would be 4th, if you only count the games since I started. But I'm not selfish and won't say that."

Haha.
What a guy. Pure box office. Just glad he's not Utd manager anymore though.

 

[joedirt87]

Mou’s going to take points from Leicester and then make a jab at United, worth it.

 

[mancan92]

Fair enough.
Concerning the CL,yeah Liverpool were there for the taking.
Hugely underwhelming and defeatist performance from Spurs,imo.

But to be fair that's against Liverpool not sitting on your goal line and hoping for luck at the other end against Newcastle

 

[EwanI Ted]

Now my opinion on Jose has always been that he's one of the brightest managers in the world. He's been making some mistakes with player recruitment (largely dependent on agents but it's his choice who he affiliates with) and his staff team is relatively new. He isn't dogmatic like Pep or LVG or even Klopp who choose to use their philosophy wherever they manage. Mourinho actually adapts himself to the club and its culture, which sometimes can be his downfall.

Umm... did you miss his time at United?

 

[broccoli]

Well your post sums up why he is on decline. We are talking about manager who said finishing 2nd was a failure, now here we are, posters justifying his couple of trophies after spending shit of money. Didn't even challenge for PL, CL for years.

His last few seasons, was in relegation zone with Chelsea when he was sacked, 6th, 2nd, 6th when he was sacked. That's a decline for a manager who used to win lot of league titles.

If he was one of the brightest managers in the world, he would have adapted to the modern game instead of falling out with every dressing room in last 10 years. If he was also one of the brightest managers then he wouldn't take up the job where he was doomed to fail.

You have blamed playes, player recruitment team, agents, staff and everyone. IMO easier thing to see here is, Jose is not the same manager anymore.

Re bold part, are you saying Jose wasn't backed? Did you see how much our wages increased and how much we spent under Jose? If not signing Perisic was not backing him then not signing Dybala/Sancho means not backing Ole.

Also even if Ole don't win a thing here, it won't change anything about Jose and his time here.

No one knew he would fail at United before attempting but it would take a lot to convince Sir Bobby and the rest. Without trust and tranquility your work is undermined like it or not, the players feel it. If the first season had no issues it was clear they started in the 2nd. After those successive 4 goals spankings.

As i said it's his fault to go with the Mendes catalogue. Lindelof, Baily, weren't his first choice but had his consent. No question they had potential but weren't yet mentally ready hence he wanted Maguire. No one outside Mourinho's haters believe he asked for Sanchez too. I actually got ridiculed in here at the time of the signing for saying he was overrated and a woodward decision, not jose's.

His recent Chelsea stint went bad after a premier league title at a time City were spending like lunatics and Abramovich decided to slow things down.

Jose's last season at Chelsea he picked Pedro, Abdul Rahman, Begovic, Kenedy and Falcao on loan. That was their investment. Next season Conte buys a prime David Luiz for CB, [Irrelevant point], Kanté and Batshuayi. He wins the league with merit.

Next season conte spends 260M euros on Morata, Bakayoko, Drinkwater, Rudiger, Zappacosta but ends at 5th, 11 points behind José's United..

Now is Conte a bad coach who's out of touch with the modern game? nah, it's just that results aren't solely dependent on a manager's capabilities but on several factors. Just because he failed it doesn't mean he's suddenly a football dinosaur and the newer managers have access to updated tactics or some other arbitrary concept.

football tactics evolve with the changing of game rules or the advancement of physical training. Besides, a head coach doesn't work alone and sometimes forms a whole new staff team like SAF used to do.

A manager won't lose the ability to understand and see what's missing during a match. SAF won his 2nd UCL in his mid 60s.. did he get out of touch? Most World Cup winners are well into their 50s. When you're good you're good but someday you lose the drive or the resources to compete in the same manner as you used to.

Now life goes on, separate ways for José but not for you!

 

[roonster09]

No one knew he would fail at United before attempting but it would take a lot to convince Sir Bobby and the rest. Without trust and tranquility your work is undermined like it or not, the players feel it. If the first season had no issues it was clear they started in the 2nd. After those successive 4 goals spankings.

As i said it's his fault to go with the Mendes catalogue. Lindelof, Baily, weren't his first choice but had his consent. No question they had potential but weren't yet mentally ready hence he wanted Maguire. No one outside Mourinho's haters believe he asked for Sanchez too. I actually got ridiculed in here at the time of the signing for saying he was overrated and a woodward decision, not jose's.

His recent Chelsea stint went bad after a premier league title at a time City were spending like lunatics and Abramovich decided to slow things down.

Jose's last season at Chelsea he picked Pedro, Abdul Rahman, Begovic, Kenedy and Falcao on loan. That was their investment. Next season Conte buys a prime David Luiz for CB, [Irrelevant point], Kanté and Batshuayi. He wins the league with merit.

Next season conte spends 260M euros on Morata, Bakayoko, Drinkwater, Rudiger, Zappacosta but ends at 5th, 11 points behind José's United..

Now is Conte a bad coach who's out of touch with the modern game? nah, it's just that results aren't solely dependent on a manager's capabilities but on several factors. Just because he failed it doesn't mean he's suddenly a football dinosaur and the newer managers have access to updated tactics or some other arbitrary concept.

football tactics evolve with the changing of game rules or the advancement of physical training. Besides, a head coach doesn't work alone and sometimes forms a whole new staff team like SAF used to do.

A manager won't lose the ability to understand and see what's missing during a match. SAF won his 2nd UCL in his mid 60s.. did he get out of touch? Most World Cup winners are well into their 50s. When you're good you're good but someday you lose the drive or the resources to compete in the same manner as you used to.

Now life goes on, separate ways for José but not for you!

Fair enough with few points but again you are just giving excuses for poor transfers. Lindelof was his first choice target, confirmed by his mouthpiece Duncan.

Also don't compare him with SAF. He won as he changed with times. His man management changed and also he knew how to manage each individual. Almost everyone saw him as father figure, then you have Jose who fought with most players at every club.

He didn't lose his ability to read games, he failed to adapt with modern game.

Also just because manager didn't get his transfers doesn't mean he should down tools and throw away seasons. Every manager who works with limited budget face the same problem.

 

[Mindhunter]

Can't agree more

We can help too by giving him back his beloved Sanchez, for free

It was sarcasm mate

He's no fan of both Spurs and Mourinho.

Thanks for explaining. I have been getting quite a few raised eyebrows from United fans over that post. We should definitely give him Sanchez for free and Mata too if he would have him. Each win makes my heart smile gleefully as the fall will be all the more satisfying to see.

I don't hate Spurs but it will be cathartic to watch what we experienced happen to a rival club

 

[Mindhunter]

I'm technically a complete club neutral but I have a soft spot for Spurs. Having said that, there's nothing bullshit about xG as long as you have the statistical nous to use it correctly while understanding its limitations.

xG models can't currently be used for determining who "should" have won a game (which is how a lot of people are using it, and giving the entire concept a bad rep). They can, however, provide a pretty accurate picture of comparative attacking prowess over a long enough time period (i.e. a large enough sample size). The range of games being discussed here is large enough that any trends observed are worth paying attention to.

Besides all that, xG accurately identifies that Kane and Son have been two of the top four most clinical finishers in all of Europe over the last six years.

You are seriously trying to explain xG to a fan of a club coached my Mourinho? It's like throwing both ends of the rope to a drowning man.

 

[Strelok]

Thanks for explaining. I have been getting quite a few raised eyebrows from United fans over that post. We should definitely give him Sanchez for free and Mata too if he would have him. Each win makes my heart smile gleefully as the fall will be all the more satisfying to see.

I don't hate Spurs but it will be cathartic to watch what we experienced happen to a rival club

You're welcome.

Same here, I don't hate Spurs at all, rather I used to like them a bit back then.

Tbh I just hate Jose

 

[Kevin]

This dino wasted Martial and showed no faith in him. Mourinho fanatics on here thought he would come back to roar in our faces once he found another big club (only spurs wanted him), look at these fools now.

Learn to spot a fossil of a thinker as a dino and a superb young talent as the future.

 

[Red Devil 26]

This dino wasted Martial and showed no faith in him. Mourinho fanatics on here thought he would come back to roar in our faces once he found another big club (only spurs wanted him), look at these fools now.

Learn to spot a fossil of a thinker as a dino and a superb young talent as the future.

Hear hear. Everytime he notches it's extra sweet knowing this fecking idiot wanted to ship him off for mediocre wide men now over the age of 30. To think most of his acolytes would have readily approved too.

 

[The Purley King]

If Jose can beat Leicester in the next game I’ll half forgive him for the mental torment of his Utd tenure.
Ok, maybe a 1/4

 

[Eddy_JukeZ]

This dino wasted Martial and showed no faith in him. Mourinho fanatics on here thought he would come back to roar in our faces once he found another big club (only spurs wanted him), look at these fools now.

Learn to spot a fossil of a thinker as a dino and a superb young talent as the future.

This forum wouldn't be the same without your insights

 

[Jackal981]

Hear hear. Everytime he notches it's extra sweet knowing this fecking idiot wanted to ship him off for mediocre wide men now over the age of 30. To think most of his acolytes would have readily approved too.

He’s done at top flight. Everyone who is objective certainly can see that. I read on his interview that he does not really coach the attacking aspect of team and instead rely on their creativity. No wonder we and Spurs look clueless on attack under him. His approach might work 10 years ago but as defending, tactics and players are getting better. Him getting Lukaku here really set us up for route one ugly football and shows that he does not have the comprehension of current game. We have not had strikers as stiff as Lukaku since ever even in early 2000s.

 

[Lj82]

No one knew he would fail at United before attempting but it would take a lot to convince Sir Bobby and the rest. Without trust and tranquility your work is undermined like it or not, the players feel it. If the first season had no issues it was clear they started in the 2nd. After those successive 4 goals spankings.

As i said it's his fault to go with the Mendes catalogue. Lindelof, Baily, weren't his first choice but had his consent. No question they had potential but weren't yet mentally ready hence he wanted Maguire. No one outside Mourinho's haters believe he asked for Sanchez too. I actually got ridiculed in here at the time of the signing for saying he was overrated and a woodward decision, not jose's.

His recent Chelsea stint went bad after a premier league title at a time City were spending like lunatics and Abramovich decided to slow things down.

Jose's last season at Chelsea he picked Pedro, Abdul Rahman, Begovic, Kenedy and Falcao on loan. That was their investment. Next season Conte buys a prime David Luiz for CB, [Irrelevant point], Kanté and Batshuayi. He wins the league with merit.

Next season conte spends 260M euros on Morata, Bakayoko, Drinkwater, Rudiger, Zappacosta but ends at 5th, 11 points behind José's United..

Now is Conte a bad coach who's out of touch with the modern game? nah, it's just that results aren't solely dependent on a manager's capabilities but on several factors. Just because he failed it doesn't mean he's suddenly a football dinosaur and the newer managers have access to updated tactics or some other arbitrary concept.

football tactics evolve with the changing of game rules or the advancement of physical training. Besides, a head coach doesn't work alone and sometimes forms a whole new staff team like SAF used to do.

A manager won't lose the ability to understand and see what's missing during a match. SAF won his 2nd UCL in his mid 60s.. did he get out of touch? Most World Cup winners are well into their 50s. When you're good you're good but someday you lose the drive or the resources to compete in the same manner as you used to.

Now life goes on, separate ways for José but not for you!

No. Sorry but you really got his time in United very wrong. He was made to feel welcome, esp by SAF who was fantastic towards him (as Jose admitted himself). Yes Sir Bobby didn't like him, but he hardly has any input anyway.

The board backed him with money. But he made strange requests, such as wanting to dump Martial for Willian and Perisic. He didn't really adapt to United, he changed how Utd play. Yet, the Old Trafford faithful continued to support him.

The problem was, Jose never planned for sustained success at United. LvG did, even though his football philosophy was really too tedious for Old Trafford to get behind. And now Ole is also planning for the long term. With Jose, that was never the case. He didn't even bother to look for a house in Manchester. He stayed in a hotel throughout his stint, which really reflects that he didn't think he would there for the long term anyway.

 

[1966]

You are seriously trying to explain xG to a fan of a club coached my Mourinho? It's like throwing both ends of the rope to a drowning man.

I lol'd even though, as I said, I have a soft spot for Spurs (mostly because of their contribution to England in recent times, especially HK).

To be fair to the lad, xG is an understandably maligned and complicated concept that I think most fans could use a primer on. Generally, it's presented as this sort of magical black box that spits out these numbers that don't seem like they should be able to exist. On the other hand, if you want to understand how and why xG really works, you have to go balls deep into some non-trivial concepts like weight vectors, linear classification, set training, multiway regression analysis etc.

You don't need to be able to construct your own model from scratch to understand why xG is logically sound and not simply voodoo. At the same time, I don't think many fans understand even the basics needed to apply xG data properly and the limitations of current/theoretical xG models. The biggest problem is pundits and the media etc. (even MOTD now) showing xG data for matches without providing any context or explanation at all (allowing - even encouraging - fans to come to the incorrect conclusion that xG is supposed to determine who should've won a game, which is a concept they're naturally resistant to).

(Sorry for going on a bit of an irrelevant rant, mate! I'm passionate about this subject because xG is hugely interesting and useful and represents the next great evolution in football stats and quantitative analysis, but it's being rejected because fans are suddenly being overexposed to it without even being correctly informed about what it really is -- largely through no fault of their own.)

 

[Bobcat]

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Brilliant. This type of Jose was so much better and fun.

 Hes a miserable bastard, but hes still funny at times.

Beat Leicester 5-0 and all is forgiven

 

[MphoG]

Just beat Leicester and all is forgiven

 

[Saddy]

Arsenal only 2 points behind them so that will maintain the focus of Spurs to keep their league position by beating Leicester or at least drawing the match - Kane appears to have found some form which is also a good sign. They will want 6th place

 

[hmchan]

I lol'd even though, as I said, I have a soft spot for Spurs (mostly because of their contribution to England in recent times, especially HK).

To be fair to the lad, xG is an understandably maligned and complicated concept that I think most fans could use a primer on. Generally, it's presented as this sort of magical black box that spits out these numbers that don't seem like they should be able to exist. On the other hand, if you want to understand how and why xG really works, you have to go balls deep into some non-trivial concepts like weight vectors, linear classification, set training, multiway regression analysis etc.

You don't need to be able to construct your own model from scratch to understand why xG is logically sound and not simply voodoo. At the same time, I don't think many fans understand even the basics needed to apply xG data properly and the limitations of current/theoretical xG models. The biggest problem is pundits and the media etc. (even MOTD now) showing xG data for matches without providing any context or explanation at all (allowing - even encouraging - fans to come to the incorrect conclusion that xG is supposed to determine who should've won a game, which is a concept they're naturally resistant to).

(Sorry for going on a bit of an irrelevant rant, mate! I'm passionate about this subject because xG is hugely interesting and useful and represents the next great evolution in football stats and quantitative analysis, but it's being rejected because fans are suddenly being overexposed to it without even being correctly informed about what it really is -- largely through no fault of their own.)

I'm a fan of xG and I quote it occassionally myself. It is useful in proving certain points but it is dangerous to jump to conclusion solely based on these stats without considering the context, just like you said. I don't think it's applicable in this case though. Mourinho's sides always look inferior in this aspect, but this doesn't necessarily mean he is a poor manager. We won the Europa with an xG of 1.1 (against Ajax's 1.7) but anyone who saw the match knew we were the better team and we were going to win the game. Mourinho's biggest strength is his defefensive tactic, which is never fairly reflected in these stats.

 

[Cloud7]

I didn’t realize there were actually still some rabid Mourinho fans on here

 

[peridigm]

I didn’t realize there were actually still some rabid Mourinho fans on here

We’re all Jose fans for match day 37.

 

[anant]

I'm a fan of xG and I quote it occassionally myself. It is useful in proving certain points but it is dangerous to jump to conclusion solely based on these stats without considering the context, just like you said. I don't think it's applicable in this case though. Mourinho's sides always look inferior in this aspect, but this doesn't necessarily mean he is a poor manager. We won the Europa with an xG of 1.1 (against Ajax's 1.7) but anyone who saw the match knew we were the better team and we were going to win the game. Mourinho's biggest strength is his defefensive tactic, which is never fairly reflected in these stats.

That's not really true.

Season	Club	Goals Scored	Goals Against	xG	xGA	xG difference	xGA difference
2014-15	Chelsea	73	32	68.64	31.52	-4.36	-0.48
2015-16 (till Leicester game - 16 games)	Chelsea	18	26	19.5	18.37	+1.5	-7.63
2016-17	Man Utd	54	29	57.57	31.62	2.57	2.62
2017-18	Man Utd	68	28	59.04	43.54	-8.96	15.54
2018-19 (Till Pool game - 17 games)	Man Utd	29	29	28.22	26.53	-0.78	-2.47
2019-20 (From WHU game - 24 games)	Spurs	39	29	34.03	34.92	-4.97	+5.92

All in all, that one season apart and this season to a certain degree, he has remained round about at the xG level only (averaging 2.5 more goals scored per season and conceding 2.25 goals less per season than expected numbers)

And if we remove that 17-18 season, his teams have scored 1.2 more goals a season and conceded 0.4 goals more than expected.

 

[roonster09]

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Luck

Only luck we had this season was that he is not our manager anymore.

 

[romufc]

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Luck

Only luck we had this season was that he is not our manager anymore.

He isnt happy that Manutd football is better under a manager he called a puppet.

Typical Jose.

 

[caid]

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Luck

Only luck we had this season was that he is not our manager anymore.

You make your own luck. Theres a reason we win penalties under ole and didn't under him, he should recognise that and adjust, its overdue.

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

We have been lucky that Spurs are so bloody shit that they are not fighting for top 4. Arsenal too.
Key part in that is Jose being manager for Spurs.

 

[RDCR07]

He can help both his previous employers if he beats Leicester at the weekend. They can also solidify their position in the Europa league.

 

[RDCR07]

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Luck

Only luck we had this season was that he is not our manager anymore.

Luck? You Buffon!! Your team was higher than United in the table when you took over or if not then they were in Jan before we signed Bruno. It’s not because of luck every single game. It’s cause we have played better than you. And will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

 

[okLaptop1]

Feck off, Ole's attitude and tactics are what got us here, not luck. Pure salt.

Although I'm not gonna lie, when his salt is directed at anyone other than us (like his FFP comment when talking about buying players), I still find it amusing. If he lets go of his failure with United, I'll be more than willing to get behind his shithousery again.