I have added a few. All the data shows that the most successful clubs have the most stable squads. Bit of a chicken and egg situation but as a guiding principle I would want to try and avoid unnecessary upheavel where at all possible. Difficult when the squad needs a retooling. I am also of the opinion that we have to strategically make best use of our most saleable assets to generate sufficient funds, although this may involve some painful decisions. Finally, I am focused entirely on the timeframe for this being the summer (not January), and trying to factor in the cost of replacement, as well as the value of experience and burden of anticipated contract terms.
Lammens - keep
Bayindir - Sell and replaced with viable competition for Lammens
Dalot - Sell and replace with specialised right back.
Mazraoui - keep
Shaw - Keep. Still performing to a good level, valuable experience. Can be gradually phased out according to the development of Amass (who can save us a fortune). Homegrown.
Dorgu - keep. Extremely versatile, and still only 21. Far too early to make a determination. Next 2 years are vital in his development.
Maguire - Keep. Reduced terms (low basic salary, generous performance and appearance related bonuses). Excellent depth and experience for the squad that shouldn't be discarded. Sale value is minimal.
De Ligt - Keep
Yoro - keep
Martinez - Sell. Too injury prone, too short, too slow on the turn for my tastes. Love his commitment, competitiveness and ability on the ball, but would move him on. Caveat is that if he can be effectively deployed as an inverted left back, like Gvardiol or Calafiori, then I think his value to the squad increases significantly. This is really dependent on the vision and needs of the new permanent manager. Would need replacing with a young CB for depth and future planning. One of Yoro or Heaven should be getting starting minutes in the bulk of games next season because it is critical to the development of two massive talents.
Heaven - keep
Amass - Keep. Possibly on another loan, depending on where Dorgu is going to be deployed. But he has shown enough this season already to be considered a viable understudy to Shaw for next season.
Casemiro - Release, primarily due to the enormous contract. Would definitely consider retaining him on significantly reduced terms that reflect his age. Max of a 2 year deal on a low base with significant performance and appearance based bonuses.
Ugarte - Sell. Use funds towards a replacement.
Kone - Loan. Possibly to somewhere like France. Nice?
Collyer - Sell. He won't play much here, at all and his value will continue to diminish. Could try another loan, but seems like time to cut losses and try and bank some profit.
Mainoo - Keep. Needs a run in the team to resume his previously startling development. Still very young. Patience required but ceiling extremely high.
Mount - Keep. Superb squad player. If (big if) he can stay injury free, could be a key player moving forwards. Consummate professional and a proper team player.
Bruno - Sell dependent on fee. This is the hard one. At his age it makes sense to cash in and use the funds to rejuvenate the squad IF we can get a very substantial offer. His market value will diminish precipitously over the next couple of years, so this summer is sort of now or never for generating a windfall from his sale. If the squad was stable I would keep him to the end of his career. But it isn't. In the peak Fergie years we would have sold him around now (or a little earlier, when value was highest and before he really dropped off). If we can't get a big fee for him this summer (over 50-60m, and as much as 80m), then there's a threshold where you keep him for the rest of his career. Such is his leadership and presence.
Zirkzee - Sell. Replace with a pure striker to compete with Sesko.
Cunha - keep
Amad - keep
Mbeumo - keep
Lacey - Keep and fully integrate into first team squad.
Sesko - Keep.
Obi- Keep and fully integrate into first team squad. Depending on injuries and opportunities afforded by cup runs in lesser competitions, consider loaning him out for the second half of the season.
SUMMARY
SELL
Bayindir for any reasonable fee.
Dalot for an acceptable fee (25-40m)
Martinez for an acceptable fee (25-40m+)
Ugarte for a reasonable fee (30m+)
Collyer for a nominal fee plus large percentage of future profit rights (5m plus 50%)
Bruno for acceptably large fee (60-80m)
Zirkzee for a reasonable fee that recoups much of what was paid (25-40m)
RELEASE or RETAIN
Maguire - Retain on reduced terms for a 1+1 deal. Low basic wage with significant performance and appearance based bonuses.
Casemiro - Retain on reduced terms for a 1+1 deal. Low basic wage with significant performance and appearance based bonuses. If a deal cannot be struck, RELEASE.
LOAN
Kone - Needs first team minutes in a competitive but appropriately developmental environment.
Obi - Potentially loan out for the second half of the season depending on how much exposure he can actually get (likely determined by injuries to other players, and length of Carabao cup run).
SIGN - Assuming we will be moving away from a wingback model.
CB - Preferably a younger, developmental player whop will understudy and provide depth. Alternative is to buy a top CB to partner De Ligt and have Yoro and Heaven play in rotation. I think this would be detrimental to both, who have already shown they aren't far away from being the real deal at PL level.
RB - A starting quality Right Back to replace the outgoing Dalot. A very solid player in the defensive phase of the game, who has the technical ability and stamina to support rapid transitions and support the attack.
CM - A robust, hard working, competitive central midfielder with primarily screening and defensive leanings. A 6 in other words, but a player comfortable stepping forwards to an 8. Peak Baleba is a good manifestation of this.
CM - A competitive and technically gifted playmaking central midfielder who excels at progressing the ball, linking attack to defence, with an expansive passing range, but a good enough engine to be part of a side that presses aggressively when needed. Wharton and Stiller are excellent examples.
LW - A left sided forward player who is comfortable going inside and outside, to provide depth, variety and rotation for Cunha. Diomande is a potential example of this type of player. Likely a player initially seen as an understudy but with the talent to push Cunha all the way for his starting spot. A developmental project.
CF - A player to compete with Sesko for the striker berth (when we decide to play an orthodox striker). Essential depth and rotation value, and importantly a player that can provide variety in the approach. The archetypal example for the ideal candidate would be Julian Alvarez, although the man himself would be unaffordable. The question will linger as to whether this would be a player to whom Sesko would be an understudy, or vice versa. Likely due to budgetary restrictions, and this not being football manager, it is likely we will be looking at someone very affordable rather than revolutionary for this squad role. Experience may be a valuable factor in this determination as we seek to take the burden off a still relatively young Sesko. Revisiting the Ollie Watkins situation would be ideal, although there is no reasonable indication yet that this deal would represent better value in the summer than it did last summer. We should potentially be looking at players coming out of contract, or with a year left on their deal.
In total that's 6 signings. Which is quite a lot. But would also put us in an excellent position. Especially when balanced against the 7 outgoings, and 1 or 2 possible releases.
The following summer, a few of the KEEPS will turn into SELLS. Prime candidates for this would be Shaw and Mazraoui, while further determinations may be made on players whom are still in the development phase (Mainoo, Heaven, Yoro, Dorgu, Sesko, Amass and Lammens).
An Impassioned Reminder
United's history is littered with examples of players who were written off after one bad campaign, or a stall in their development. The reminder constantly needs to be made that the development of young players is anything but linear. It comes in bursts and has peaks and troughs. There has been a shift in narrative over the last 15 years, due to the emergence of teen sensations like Messi, Neymar, Yamal etc., that creates an inappropriate and misguided expectations that players should be delivering at high levels in their teens. It is a sensationalist society. The reality is that teen sensations are the exception, not the benchmark. Sensible development of academy players, and players signed who are under 22, is that they will almost always need time to fully develop; and there will be protracted periods where they don't look as good as the early hype perhaps suggested.
The club has always been excellent at giving these players time to develop; but the fanbase has fallen way short in recent times. The vitriol spewed towards players in the early stages of their careers has often been disheartening, and occasionally disgusting. Darren Fletcher is an early example of this phenomenon. He was derided and discarded by huge sections of the fanbase until he finally "came good", and if those fans had had their way, he never would've made his career at United. This is a phenomenon that keeps repeating itself. Right now we have the following players who are either already being written off, sometimes straight up slagged off and derided, and in other cases are probably only a few games or a few weeks away from going from flavour of the month, to shit of the day. These include: Patrick Dorgu (21), Leny Yoro (20), Ayden Heaven (19), Kobbie Mainoo (20), Chido Obi (18), Shea Lacey (18), Harry Amass (18), Benjamin Sesko (22), Senne Lammens (23), and Sekou Kone (19). We will see many of these written off, others told they are shit and will never be good enough, others hyped to the heavens and then torn down. In all cases that would be wrong. In all cases it is far too early to make any meaningful determination of how good they will be at 23-25 (the window is older for a GK).
We have seen too many times a player explode in performance levels once they hit 23 or 24, as they figure out how to apply all they have learned, apply the mental side of the game which they are still developing, and to complete and overcome all the issues that comes with a still developing body. One thing all, or almost all, of these players have in common, is that they have already passed the threshold of being considered good enough to be worth the breakthrough into the first team. But all too often we discard them quickly when that development isn't uninterrupted and linearly upwards. I don't use the word stupid very often on here, despite the temptation, but it is indeed incredibly stupid to take such a myopic and impatient approach to the development of younger players. Any education gleaned on the careers of some of the all time great players will show people the folly of the nearly ubiquitous mentality fans take to developing young players. Just in this thread I see people writing off Mainoo. Who is 20. 20!!! By all rights he should barely be breaking into the first team squad at 20, let alone having already had a great season in his past and national team caps. We are now judging him not against relevant benchmarks of player development, but against our own overhyped expectations from the past.
I know this speech won't really change any hearts and minds, and people will come back with reasons why Kobbie, or others, are actually crap - using specific elements of their game to drive home their point; but it'll only make me chuckle because it is indicative of the entire problem and how most people are completely missing the bigger picture.
Some of those players won't make it. Some will be stars. Others will be okay, but perhaps slightly sort of what was first hoped. The time to make that determination is not now. Now is the time to be responsible with their development, and to do so conscientiously and with purpose; because regardless of the outcome of this group, another group will follow them, and another, and the cycle goes on.
