Leicester City 19/20

Varun

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Maddison, Tielemans, Perreira, Soyuncu & Evans were all signed in the last year. It's not unfeesible United can't do the same in a short time frame.
Starts with the manager.
 

Litch

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They are a stunning and exciting team to watch. Their midfield and defense are up there with the best in the league, and Vardy is still same old goalmachine. For me one of the best teams in Europe right now.
Europe?
 

Classical Mechanic

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Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
 

VorZakone

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Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
Vardy has a conversion rate webshops would kill for.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
it's almost like XG is a made up statistic, its not even applied universally the same way by different sources, our XG against Southampton for example was 4 IIRC
 

Classical Mechanic

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it's almost like XG is a made up statistic, its not even applied universally the same way by different sources, our XG against Southampton for example was 4 IIRC
It’s not made up and yes, against Southampton is was about 4. In a 9-0 you’d expect absolutely that the players had been exceptionally clinical. It’s why you rarely see results like that.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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It’s not made up and yes, against Southampton is was about 4. In a 9-0 you’d expect absolutely that the players had been exceptionally clinical. It’s why you rarely see results like that.
its completely made up because they are arbitrarily deciding how good a chance is but it doesn't take into account who the chance falls to so its complete BS, Ben Chilwell gets the same rating on a chance as Jamie Vardy, but I wouldn't expect a stats zombie to say anything different, watch the teams play and tell me how Leicester are the 13th best attacking side in the league
 

RedDevilRoshi

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Comparing the current Leicester team with the one that won the league below, I personally think this present Leicester team looks better than the one that won the league in 2016:

2016 - Current

Schmeichel - Schmeichel

Simpson - Pereira
Huth - Evans
Morgan - Soyuncu
Fuchs - Chilwell

Kanté - N’Didi
Drinkwater - Tielemans

Mahrez - Perez
Okazaki - Maddison
Albrighton - Barnes

Vardy - Vardy
 

Classical Mechanic

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its completely made up because they are arbitrarily deciding how good a chance is but it doesn't take into account who the chance falls to so its complete BS, Ben Chilwell gets the same rating on a chance as Jamie Vardy, but I wouldn't expect a stats zombie to say anything different, watch the teams play and tell me how Leicester are the 13th best attacking side in the league
It’s not perfect and will be improved as time goes on but it isn’t arbitrary and its a decent enough predictor. If you look at Chelsea’s last title win they massively outperformed their xG so it can be sustained for a season but it told you that it wasn’t much of a surprise when they got nowhere near the title the season after.

All it tells you this season about Leicester is that you’ve been exceptionally clinical in front of goal, you can frame that as being a great attacking side if you want.
 

Josh 76

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Comparing the current Leicester team with the one that won the league below, I personally think this present Leicester team looks better than the one that won the league in 2016:

2016 - Current

Schmeichel - Schmeichel

Simpson - Pereira
Huth - Evans
Morgan - Soyuncu
Fuchs - Chilwell

Kanté - N’Didi
Drinkwater - Tielemans

Mahrez - Perez
Okazaki - Maddison
Albrighton - Barnes

Vardy - Vardy
Can't understand with all this crap about how this Leicester team is better than the Leicester team that won the PL. So fecking what, there was no team like Liverpool that season, this Liverpool team would have walked the PL that year.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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Can't understand with all this crap about how this Leicester team is better than the Leicester team that won the PL. So fecking what, there was no team like Liverpool that season, this Liverpool team would have walked the PL that year.
our 15-16 team got more points than the United treble winners in 99, its just another stick for the media to pat us on the head with, they will say Man City are still in the title race but won't say Leicester are even though we are second in the league, you just have to laugh at the idiots
 

Andersonson

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The thing that's missing with these type of comparisons is context. I think that's why you could change the shirts of both teams as they are and you'd potentially see completely different outcomes. I think we have seen this with Harry, the weight of expectation makes a massive difference in the freedom to get results. Leicester can dine out on winning the league for the next lifetime. Better is subjective and the only comparisons in regard to context of performances and winning is a handful of teams in the world and that's why it's not a level Plainfield........

Sure, and I agree. But that doesnt change the fact that I think they were outsiders for a top 4 position.

Arsenal struggeling I could see, and same with us. So that Leicester capitalizing on that aint a surprise for me.
 

Pagh Wraith

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Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
They are fourth in xG as well as xPts in the model I use which is more sophisticated than Understat's. But even then the margins are incredibly tight (only 2 xG between 4th and 12th) with City, Liverpool and Chelsea far ahead of the pack. But they are indeed massively outperforming their xG created which won't last. With the points advantage they have and assuming they can avoid injuries to their key players, top 4 should be a realistic aim. Anything above is silly.
 

Classical Mechanic

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They are fourth in xG as well as xPts in the model I use which is more sophisticated than Understat's. But even then the margins are incredibly tight (only 2 xG between 4th and 12th) with City, Liverpool and Chelsea far ahead of the pack. But they are indeed massively outperforming their xG created which won't last. With the points advantage they have and assuming they can avoid injuries to their key players, top 4 should be a realistic aim. Anything above is silly.
Which model do you use? I'd be interested to see the stats on them from it.

It's their xGA too (using understat), if they continue as they are now they'd concede 16 (rounded) less than expected over the course of the season. The only side to produce a similar figure over the course of the season in the PL (past 5 seasons) was United when we finished 2nd under Mourinho with 15. My point is it seems highly unlikely that they'll be able to continue this form and a significant drop off, although not certain, would not be a surprise.

From understat their xG over the course of the season, if you discount the Southampton result, would be 28, Chelsea having the previous highest in the past 5 seasons at 23.
 
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Pagh Wraith

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The main problem with Understat is that it doesn't take defensive pressure into account, i.e. it doesn't distinguish between one or four defenders between the shooter and the goalline or a free header and the attacker being surrounded by three defenders when jumping. I also read somewhere that a certain xG range is completely missing from Understat's data (e.g. no shots between 0.15 and 0.21; don't remember the exact numbers) which tells me they're using a rather simplistic formula. That doesn't matter too much in the long run and it is still a very useful tool but when you cross-check certain chances you'll see that some of the numbers are off. I do suspect though this is the reason why they have Atletico significantly outperforming their defensive stats season after season. It can't be all down to Oblak.

I use Wyscout (huge analysis platform that players and clubs use as well, and pricy) and also xgstats. The latter only covers English football but is by far the most accurate model I know as every single attempt is manually recorded. I can post the current xG table in the gameweek thread when the weekend games have been updated.
 

Classical Mechanic

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The main problem with Understat is that it doesn't take defensive pressure into account, i.e. it doesn't distinguish between one or four defenders between the shooter and the goalline or a free header and the attacker being surrounded by three defenders when jumping. I also read somewhere that a certain xG range is completely missing from Understat's data (e.g. no shots between 0.15 and 0.21; don't remember the exact numbers) which tells me they're using a rather simplistic formula. That doesn't matter too much in the long run and it is still a very useful tool but when you cross-check certain chances you'll see that some of the numbers are off. I do suspect though this is the reason why they have Atletico significantly outperforming their defensive stats season after season. It can't be all down to Oblak.

I use Wyscout (huge analysis platform that players and clubs use as well, and pricy) and also xgstats. The latter only covers English football but is by far the most accurate model I know as every single attempt is manually recorded. I can post the current xG table in the gameweek thread when the weekend games have been updated.
Cheers. Crikey that is expensive. Are you an enthusiast or do you have an official capacity, if you don't mind me asking?
 

foxedup

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Starts with the manager.
No, it starts with the owner and those making the decisions above the manager.

Those pinning this all on Rodgers are missing the point entirely, as are people who pin our title win on "luck" or a "miracle" or Ranieri. Do people seriously think it's all a coincidence that we romped league one, romped the championship, had the great escape, a title win, champions league quarters and are now sat second again?

It's decision making from the very top and a consistent and professional way of doing absolutely everything at the club that is what achieves all of this.

I took pelters on here last season for saying I thought this season that the club would have a good chance of top 4. That wasn't guess work, it's from seeing our plan in action. Sometimes you get something wrong. Puel, for instance was never going to push us on a level. But it was blindingly obvious to anyone seeing us regularly, that there was a very good but very inexperienced squad there that only needed a few tweaks. Puel transitioned us and moved us a step in the right direction, putting a squad together of young talent (with those above him). If Rodgers had taken over what Puel did, we wouldn't be where we are right now.

I don't think OGS is a good manager, but I do think he has the right vision for your football club. I think he'll provide you with an identity again and a vision that someone else (they must have a similar outlook) will take over and push on more than he can. But he'll lay some important foundations.
 
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Jimmy Skitz

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@foxedup the owners were t here in the league one season that was Mandaric, they took over second season back in championship
 

InLevyITrust

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The thing that's missing with these type of comparisons is context. I think that's why you could change the shirts of both teams as they are and you'd potentially see completely different outcomes. I think we have seen this with Harry, the weight of expectation makes a massive difference in the freedom to get results. Leicester can dine out on winning the league for the next lifetime. Better is subjective and the only comparisons in regard to context of performances and winning is a handful of teams in the world and that's why it's not a level Plainfield........
This sort of comment really erks me, they clearly don't want to dine out on if for their next lifetime, this team is a much better team than the title winning one and with City and Liverpool much better sides, they are clearly a very ambitious club with an owner who genuinely wants success. Rodgers is a good manager, they have a 20-25 goal a season striker, no reason they cant push Liverpool all the way this season.
 

foxedup

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@foxedup the owners were t here in the league one season that was Mandaric, they took over second season back in championship
I'm aware of that. But much of what the club have taken on board is what Pearson installed and they have run with it. The scouting, sports science, how they put a team together and the personalities etc. But you need owners and decision makers who are able to see that and embrace and take it forwards. It's become the clubs blueprint, the owners original blueprint for success was something else entirely.... big names and expensive signings with little cohesion (hello Sven).
 

GazTheLegend

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it's almost like XG is a made up statistic, its not even applied universally the same way by different sources, our XG against Southampton for example was 4 IIRC
So if your team drops off, and the likes of Everton (who are underperforming as per xG) start to rise, will you admit there’s something to it?

It’s logical to my mind that if you have a defence that’s giving away 3 clear cut chances every game, but they somehow only let in 0-1 goals, then eventually that’s going to get found out.

Like don’t get me wrong results and goals are god, but the one thing xG does show is consistency in defending and creating chances, which eventually even a teams season out.
 

Withnail

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Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
I was just looking at that table today. Vardy's due a dry spell as well as he's scored 5 more than expected.

This isn't the result of some genius by the owners or Rodgers. Its a purple patch and as you say it's unlikely to last.

As we saw last year with United, performances usually revert to the mean and they'll be out of the top 4 come the end of the season.
 

foxedup

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So if your team drops off, and the likes of Everton (who are underperforming as per xG) start to rise, will you admit there’s something to it?

It’s logical to my mind that if you have a defence that’s giving away 3 clear cut chances every game, but they somehow only let in 0-1 goals, then eventually that’s going to get found out.

Like don’t get me wrong results and goals are god, but the one thing xG does show is consistency in defending and creating chances, which eventually even a teams season out.
You can have all the xG stats in the world, but if one team has Jamie Vardy, Maddison and Tielemans on the end of their chances, whilst the other has Iwobi, Calvert-Lewin and Walcott. You might apply those xG rules the same, but it's a total bloody mismatch in terms of what one group of players is capable of achieving over the others.

Also, lets take Vardy for example. His finishing has always been unreal with certain kinds of chances, you get him running in on an angle and he scores a crazy amount where others would just miss. Yet if you put him through straight in the middle of the goal, with what stats wise is probably registered as an easier chance, he's never been great at one on ones.

I love my stats and there is always a truth to these things, but it only scratches the surface. Nobody could have watched us regularly and thought we shouldn't have got the points we actually have, other than perhaps the first few weeks of the season.
 

acnumber9

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Xg is a load of shite. The best teams should always be outperforming the average. If they aren’t then the stat is worthless because then it’s not an average.
 

TGK

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"Vardy's due a dry spell".

Is not based in reality, causality or statistics.

He has 20 goals in something like 22 games. There is no evidence whatsoever that this run won't continue.....other than the fanciful notion of having a 'purple patch'. Historically, there may be precedents as regards other strikers etc, but they have no value in predicting his ongoing form.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Xg is a load of shite. The best teams should always be outperforming the average. If they aren’t then the stat is worthless because then it’s not an average.
They do but what we are talking about here is sides that are significantly outperforming the average which Leicester currently are both with xG and xGA.

If you look at sides like Chelsea when they won the title with Conte, United when they finished 2nd under Mou, they significantly outperformed the xG or xGA before reverting closer to the mean the season after, costing them lots of places.
 
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Sterling Archer

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Comparing the current Leicester team with the one that won the league below, I personally think this present Leicester team looks better than the one that won the league in 2016:

2016 - Current

Schmeichel - Schmeichel

Simpson - Pereira
Huth - Evans
Morgan - Soyuncu
Fuchs - Chilwell

Kanté - N’Didi
Drinkwater - Tielemans

Mahrez - Perez
Okazaki - Maddison
Albrighton - Barnes

Vardy - Vardy
Kante and Mahrez are special. The two of them alone would elevate us to top 4 team.

This current team feels better managed than the one that won the title.
 

Pagh Wraith

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No team historically outperforms xG by more than 15%. Leicester are doing so by 80% in front of goal this season, so yes there are due "a dry spell".

Here's a nice practical example on the usefulness of the metric:



The xG numbers couldn’t say any more clearly that Peterborough seemed to have gotten results much, much better than their performances suggested they “deserved”. On average with the chances they created you’d have expected them to score around 14 – 15 goals, have conceded around 19 – 20 and picked up around 10 – 11 points.

After a closer match-by-match inspection, it was obvious that marginal moments had pretty much all gone their way in almost every game. They were scoring at a completely unsustainable rate – over 25% of their 102 total shots and 74% of their “big chances” resulted in a goal. They also got 3 penalties at crucial times in tight games. Their opponents also missed their big opportunities at an unsustainable rate. Basically, anything that could go their way, was going their way. There seemed little chance they could keep up that level of good fortune.

I remember someone tweeted Posh owner Darragh Macanthony sometime around this point pointing this out and he replied sarcastically something along the lines of “yeah we are just really lucky. Top of the league but rubbish. Cant wait until we get it right!” P’boro fans were pretty much in unanimous agreement with replies of “it’s a results business”, “whatever we are doing it’s working”, “the only stat that matters is the league table” etc etc

4 months later and manager Steve Evans was sacked after claiming just 26 points from their next 20 games. The numbers suggest their overall performance level didn’t change in any meaningful way. They just stopped getting all the breaks they had previously got earlier in the season. They were now in the position their overall play merited, a solid but unspectacular 6th – 8th range. You wonder if the breaks had fell in a more even pattern, whether owner and supporters would have been perfectly content with their league position and Evans would still be in the job?

Unless you were a regular Peterborough spectator it would have been difficult to spot that early season overperformance without xG. Even if you suspected it, having the stats laid out to prove the theory is incredibly useful.

People need to stop taking offense on behalf of their team when someone points these things out. It happened last season when Man United were doing great after Ole took over and so far this season Leicester have been very fortunate. They are still playing a very good season. Both can be true.
 
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Withnail

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"Vardy's due a dry spell".

Is not based in reality, causality or statistics.

He has 20 goals in something like 22 games. There is no evidence whatsoever that this run won't continue.....other than the fanciful notion of having a 'purple patch'. Historically, there may be precedents as regards other strikers etc, but they have no value in predicting his ongoing form.
So you're expecting Vardy to finish the season with more than 30 PL goals, something he's never gotten close to, at 32?

Its much more likely that he'll have a dry spell and finish off somewhere around his usual 15 - 20.

Even the season he scored 24 he only outperformed XG by a couple of goals.
 

TGK

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No team historically outperforms xG by more than 15%. Leicester are doing so by 80% in front of goal this season, so yes there are due "a dry spell".
Fair point. Have to say, it kind of falls in with 'a months worth of rain in 24 hours' weather forecast. If a month's worth landed in a day, you might have to re-calibrate. When it comes to XG, the sample size is relatively small.
 

TGK

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So you're expecting Vardy to finish the season with more than 30 PL goals, something he's never gotten close to, at 32?

Its much more likely that he'll have a dry spell and finish off somewhere around his usual 15 - 20.

Even the season he scored 24 he only outperformed XG by a couple of goals.
Again, I'd say it's a fair point, but if he was 22 would you say it's more likely, and why? There is no real reason to suggest Vardy won't carry on his goal scoring form, other than "it's unlikely". It may be, but it's not an argument that is being backed up by facts/stats other than XG, and again, I'd say it's a good stat with limited historical data.
 

foxedup

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So you're expecting Vardy to finish the season with more than 30 PL goals, something he's never gotten close to, at 32?

Its much more likely that he'll have a dry spell and finish off somewhere around his usual 15 - 20.

Even the season he scored 24 he only outperformed XG by a couple of goals.
He's never had two creative 8's playing behind him, capable of giving him the chances that he loves. He scored 24 with basically just Mahrez as a creative partner, he scored 20 for Puel in one of the most boring and defensive Leicester teams I've ever seen. He's going to be a lot closer to 25 than he is 15.
 
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Red_Beans

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xG is silly in general but especially so in this case. Vardy has a much higher than average conversion rate which unless I am misunderstanding this whole malarkey means that his teams will always out perform their expected statistical output.
Vardy is the real difference maker in that team. Put a 20 league goal striker in our team we would also be top 4
 

Sterling Archer

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Their xG says they’re performing out of their skin in front of goal and have had a bit of luck. 13 more goals than expected and they have conceded 5 less than they should. Seems unlikely that it will last.
What was our xG the year van Persie won us our last title? Is there a way to go back and find out?

Because it would add some good perspective for the stat worshippers or likewise, those that dismiss them as tell-all (me). Because does xG take into account previous matches? I haven't delved into it and I wonder how probabilities are adjusted for intangibles like form. Because in the form of his life you expect certain players to score the crucial chance that has a 30% chance of being a goal and winning games. And that's how seasons are often defined.