Leicester City 19/20

[foxedup]

They do but what we are talking about here is sides that are significantly outperforming the average which Leicester currently are both with xG and xGA.

If you look at sides like Chelsea when they won the title with Conte, United when they finished 2nd under Mou, they significantly outperformed the xG or xGA before reverting closer to the mean the season after, costing them lots of places.

Up until about three games ago, we'd been playing the season with about 5 players in the team not actually playing anywhere close to the standards they are capable. We're continuously improving as well, with a young team that's learning and making better decisions as the weeks go in.

Watching the games rather than just relying on stats I'm exceptionally positive about us improving in terms of creating simpler chances. Have the stats improved in recent weeks, because early season i'd have agreed entirely with those stats. But I really do see a change when watching us.

 

[Withnail]

He's never had two creative 8's playing behind him, capable of giving him the chances that he loves. He scored 24 with basically just Mahrez as a creative partner, he scored 20 for Puel in one of the most boring and defensive Leicester teams I've ever seen. He's going to be a lot closer to 25 than he is 15.

That's really not the same as saying he'll continue to score close to a goal a game and out-perform xg at the same rate he currently is.

I'm was saying that given they are outperforming xg significantly at the moment it's likely Leicester and Vardy will revert to the mean in terms of performance.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

What was our xG the year van Persie won us our last title? Is there a way to go back and find out?

Because it would add some good perspective for the stat worshippers or likewise, those that dismiss them as tell-all (me). Because does xG take into account previous matches? I haven't delved into it and I wonder how probabilities are adjusted for intangibles like form. Because in the form of his life you expect certain players to score the crucial chance that has a 30% chance of being a goal and winning games. And that's how seasons are often defined.

They do take into account past games. It's a massive historic database that is continually added to as far as I'm aware.

My instinct would be that we outperformed our xG in the Van Persie season by a decent amount but I'm not aware of any historic data on that season.

 

[TGK]

Such an odd conversation.

"outperformed their XG"....."A month's worth of rain".

The problem with stats, and when it comes to XG - where I would put Vardy at the exception anyway....if I flipped a coin fifty times and it came up heads, there is no reason to believe that the 51st flip would come up tails. There is no causality.

Now it may be that over the course of seasons, it will average out, but again using the 'months worth of rain' scenario, statistically there is always an anomaly, if that anomaly continues it becomes the new mean.

There is no way, none at all, that you can say Vardy who has 22 in 20 (retired from International Football etc) will suddenly start to miss chances he is currently converting.

It's not a million miles to how they won the title back whenever, sooner or later they will revert to mean....except they didn't.

 

[VeevaVee]

The problem with stats, and when it comes to XG - where I would put Vardy at the exception anyway....if I flipped a coin fifty times and it came up heads, there is no reason to believe that the 51st flip would come up tails. There is no causality.

I may be being a dumbass here as it's been a long day, but considering the chance should be 50/50 for every flip, with enough flips it should be pretty much even, surely there is more chance of it beginning to even out, the more flips you do? Even if that's not correct it should be.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Such an odd conversation.

"outperformed their XG"....."A month's worth of rain".

The problem with stats, and when it comes to XG - where I would put Vardy at the exception anyway....if I flipped a coin fifty times and it came up heads, there is no reason to believe that the 51st flip would come up tails. There is no causality.

Now it may be that over the course of seasons, it will average out, but again using the 'months worth of rain' scenario, statistically there is always an anomaly, if that anomaly continues it becomes the new mean.

There is no way, none at all, that you can say Vardy who has 22 in 20 (retired from International Football etc) will suddenly start to miss chances he is currently converting.

It's not a million miles to how they won the title back whenever, sooner or later they will revert to mean....except they didn't.

Their xG when they won the title (from understat) was at the mean, their xGA was 9 less than expected so they over performed defensively but not massively like they are now.

If Vardy continues to outperform his xG at the current rate he'll finish the season with 18 more than expected. Messi's best is 10 and Kane 9. I don't recall seeing anything north of that (there could be).

 

[That_Bloke]

Maddison, Tielemans, Perreira, Soyuncu & Evans were all signed in the last year. It's not unfeesible United can't do the same in a short time frame.

If you buy smart it's certainly feasible but you have to have first a manager with good connections in others/lowers leagues, a competent DoF and a good scouting network.

 

[That_Bloke]

its completely made up because they are arbitrarily deciding how good a chance is but it doesn't take into account who the chance falls to so its complete BS, Ben Chilwell gets the same rating on a chance as Jamie Vardy, but I wouldn't expect a stats zombie to say anything different, watch the teams play and tell me how Leicester are the 13th best attacking side in the league

I agree with you but mate, that isn't necessary. You should tone down your posts a bit.

 

[Jimmy Skitz]

I agree with you but mate, that isn't necessary. You should tone down your posts a bit.

if someone from the moderating team tells me to I will but until then nah you're alright I'll keep posting how I choose to.

 

[That_Bloke]

Our only hope.

Won't happen.

Firstly because aside from their obvious quality, they're relentless and mentally much stronger than last season. Secondly, we don't have the squad depth, even if we're not in Europe. We're one Vardy or midfielder injury away from seriously slowing down.

If Pep can't stop them, and I think he won't, no one will.

 

[Sterling Archer]

They do take into account past games. It's a massive historic database that is continually added to as far as I'm aware.

My instinct would be that we outperformed our xG in the Van Persie season by a decent amount but I'm not aware of any historic data on that season.

Lovely. Thank you for linking those. Bear with me now as I think this through and correct me if I'm interpreting incorrectly:

How does the typical chance creation stat compare to xG and xA? I can't help thinking chance creation and xA are more significant than xG.

The first example shown in the xG video is the one on one with the keeper, given a 33% (1 in 3)conversion rate. When I consider that kind of opportunity, my completely made up guess is that a striker like Messi or van Nistelrooy scores those 66% of the time (2 in 3). They of course don't ever look to beat the narrow angle made my a good keeper, they almost always go through the legs.

xA on the other hand seems to be more representative of a team's overall attacking play and threat. Because now we're looking at times where the buildup and play leads to the ball being put into the position of scoring even if it gets cleared before a striker connects. So maybe a more nuanced version of chance creation?

 

[AllezLesDiables]

Such an odd conversation.

"outperformed their XG"....."A month's worth of rain".

The problem with stats, and when it comes to XG - where I would put Vardy at the exception anyway....if I flipped a coin fifty times and it came up heads, there is no reason to believe that the 51st flip would come up tails. There is no causality.

Now it may be that over the course of seasons, it will average out, but again using the 'months worth of rain' scenario, statistically there is always an anomaly, if that anomaly continues it becomes the new mean.

There is no way, none at all, that you can say Vardy who has 22 in 20 (retired from International Football etc) will suddenly start to miss chances he is currently converting.

It's not a million miles to how they won the title back whenever, sooner or later they will revert to mean....except they didn't.

Except that flipping a coin is a 50/50 event. To get to 50 results of the same side in a row is 1 in 2 to the 50th power in probability. Over time there is a regression to the mean so it would be next to impossible to have a 50 heads 50 tails split after an additional fifty tosses the more tosses completed the closer one would get to 50% of each.

In terms of regression in a much more complicated statistical assessment the more information involved the less statistical error. You would look at the team’s relative performance to it’s normalized patterns, which is what xG attempts to quantify. It is flawed; however again with increased amount data tabulated you can determine the level of error with increased accuracy, which allows to better understand the probability of standard deviations and the amplifier of those deviations.

 

[jeff gurr]

Except that flipping a coin is a 50/50 event. To get to 50 results of the same side in a row is 1 in 2 to the 50th power in probability. Over time there is a regression to the mean so it would be next to impossible to have a 50 heads 50 tails split after an additional fifty tosses the more tosses completed the closer one would get to 50% of each.

In terms of regression in a much more complicated statistical assessment the more information involved the less statistical error. You would look at the team’s relative performance to it’s normalized patterns, which is what xG attempts to quantify. It is flawed; however again with increased amount data tabulated you can determine the level of error with increased accuracy, which allows to better understand the probability of standard deviations and the amplifier of those deviations.

I bet you are fun at parties.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Lovely. Thank you for linking those. Bear with me now as I think this through and correct me if I'm interpreting incorrectly:

How does the typical chance creation stat compare to xG and xA? I can't help thinking chance creation and xA are more significant than xG.

The first example shown in the xG video is the one on one with the keeper, given a 33% (1 in 3)conversion rate. When I consider that kind of opportunity, my completely made up guess is that a striker like Messi or van Nistelrooy scores those 66% of the time (2 in 3). They of course don't ever look to beat the narrow angle made my a good keeper, they almost always go through the legs.

xA on the other hand seems to be more representative of a team's overall attacking play and threat. Because now we're looking at times where the buildup and play leads to the ball being put into the position of scoring even if it gets cleared before a striker connects. So maybe a more nuanced version of chance creation?

Actually only Messi out of any player really consistently beats the average by an impressive amount. Kane is fairly impressive too but most as closer to the average than you might imagine.

Messi

https://understat.com/player/2097

Kane

https://understat.com/player/647

Aguero

https://understat.com/player/619

Lewandowski

https://understat.com/player/227

Vardy fairly impressive

https://understat.com/player/755

xA seeks to contextualises chances. A ‘key pass’ can be a cross that skims off the top of an attacking players head in a position hard to score from, xA will give that chance a low value.

The overall xG of a game will give a better indication of the balance of play than the score line often does.

 

[Litch]

This sort of comment really erks me, they clearly don't want to dine out on if for their next lifetime, this team is a much better team than the title winning one and with City and Liverpool much better sides, they are clearly a very ambitious club with an owner who genuinely wants success. Rodgers is a good manager, they have a 20-25 goal a season striker, no reason they cant push Liverpool all the way this season.

I said they can dine out on winning the prem for a lifetime and I made no reference to whether they want to or not. If they were that ambitious, why do they sell their best players? Why didn't they keep them and add to them with more quality to try and retain the prem the following season? No doubt they are playing well but in reality, this is like when they won it, there were a number of big teams that weren't. If Spurs, Arsenal and us weren't in so much disarray, they'd be 3 places lower which is about their level. Push Liverpool all the way, who comes in for anyone of their starting 11 if injured including their 20 goal striker?

 

[sharpstar69]

Top 4 done for Leicester. Easily the 3rd/4th best team in the Prem with top manager who wants to play exciting football.

Brenda could've been mint at Arsenal.

 

[Fox_Chrys]

So you're expecting Vardy to finish the season with more than 30 PL goals, something he's never gotten close to, at 32?

Its much more likely that he'll have a dry spell and finish off somewhere around his usual 15 - 20.

Even the season he scored 24 he only outperformed XG by a couple of goals.

How many seasons has he been playing under Rodgers? Rodgers, expects his teams to create and feed the forward players. He has managed Vardy to be more central as well I assume so he scores more. I am not saying of course he will score 30+ goals, I cannot predict the future, he could score no more at all, but he could also clear 30, who knows. But I wouldn't rule it out simply based on historical seasons under different managers. In the season he scored 24 he took less than half our penalties and was banned a few games as well.

Here is what I have observed that is different.

1 - After title season, we brought in new strikers, and Mahrez no longer put all through balls to Vardy, this led to his goals drying up (I think also he lost some motivation due to the Arsenal interest). This didn't get addressed properly until Puel came in, but then Mahrez ended up leaving to Man City.
2 - After Mahrez left and even when we still had Mahrez (to a lesser extent) we were struggling with forward play, no proper creative players. Maddison was brought in but took 3/4 of a season to get up to speed.
3 - When we got Youri, was also when Maddison was improving, and we started to look much more dangerous in forward play, Vardy's form started improving.
4 - We got Rodgers final 1/3 of last season who added a lot more variety to our forward play so we less predictable. He also has clearly encouraged his players to feed Vardy when there is a chance to.
5 - This season some of our forward play has been outstanding, the passage of play prior to some of our goals is really top draw stuff, this has created more goals for the entire team, in the past Vardy and the team in general had a unhealthy amount of reliance on long balls to Vardy for goals, his pace is weakening due to his age so this wasn't sustainable. Under Rodgers these still happen but only a few times a match now.
6 - Goals are been spread throughout the team, Youri and Maddison both scoring a decent amount of goals, as well as both wing backs. This has lowered the pressure on Vardy, and defenders also cant just mark Vardy as they now know there is goals in more of our players, these things combined I think all contribute to his better form.

So no its not just a upturn in luck, there is reasons for what is happening.

 

[Withnail]

I may be being a dumbass here as it's been a long day, but considering the chance should be 50/50 for every flip, with enough flips it should be pretty much even, surely there is more chance of it beginning to even out, the more flips you do? Even if that's not correct it should be.

Well that's it, exactly. Probability says it will even out over a long enough time-frame.

In football there is always the chance that it takes til next season to even out but I think that's unlikely.

How many seasons has he been playing under Rodgers? Rodgers, expects his teams to create and feed the forward players. He has managed Vardy to be more central as well I assume so he scores more. I am not saying of course he will score 30+ goals, I cannot predict the future, he could score no more at all, but he could also clear 30, who knows. But I wouldn't rule it out simply based on historical seasons under different managers. In the season he scored 24 he took less than half our penalties and was banned a few games as well.

Here is what I have observed that is different.

1 - After title season, we brought in new strikers, and Mahrez no longer put all through balls to Vardy, this led to his goals drying up (I think also he lost some motivation due to the Arsenal interest). This didn't get addressed properly until Puel came in, but then Mahrez ended up leaving to Man City.
2 - After Mahrez left and even when we still had Mahrez (to a lesser extent) we were struggling with forward play, no proper creative players. Maddison was brought in but took 3/4 of a season to get up to speed.
3 - When we got Youri, was also when Maddison was improving, and we started to look much more dangerous in forward play, Vardy's form started improving.
4 - We got Rodgers final 1/3 of last season who added a lot more variety to our forward play so we less predictable. He also has clearly encouraged his players to feed Vardy when there is a chance to.
5 - This season some of our forward play has been outstanding, the passage of play prior to some of our goals is really top draw stuff, this has created more goals for the entire team, in the past Vardy and the team in general had a unhealthy amount of reliance on long balls to Vardy for goals, his pace is weakening due to his age so this wasn't sustainable. Under Rodgers these still happen but only a few times a match now.
6 - Goals are been spread throughout the team, Youri and Maddison both scoring a decent amount of goals, as well as both wing backs. This has lowered the pressure on Vardy, and defenders also cant just mark Vardy as they now know there is goals in more of our players, these things combined I think all contribute to his better form.

So no its not just a upturn in luck, there is reasons for what is happening.

Look I understand the team are playing brilliantly and are 2nd in the league and that's fantastic and here I am pissing on your chips.

Its just a word of caution, as Leicester are out-performing both the xg for and against and it's pretty even between the two, so the team are giving up decent goal chances as well.

As Jagga, said it would be unprecedented for a team to through a whole season out-performing xg at the current rate which is over 80%.

They could be in the top 4 by the end of the season but to do that they'll have to create a lot more chances than they currently are as a scoring close to twice the amount of expected goals is unsustainable.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

What the stats tell you about Vardy is that he if continues scoring at his current rate then he'll hit about 35 goals. xG tells you that he'd be outperforming the mean from the quality of his chances created by about 18 if he continues like this to the end of the season. I don't recall a player ever scoring more than 10 (Messi) than xG predicted for them.

His xG only predicts him to score 22 if he reverted to the mean from now on from the chances Leicester are creating for him currently, which would take him back to match his best performance against the mean previously. It's not impossible for him to continue this vein of form but it's exceptionally unlikely.

Vardy's best performance against the mean was +5 (rounded) in 17/18 so if he repeated that he'd hit 21 - 22. If he could match Kane's (+9) or Messi's (+10) best performance against the mean then he'd hit 25 -27.

So unless Leicester improve their chance creation significantly or Vardy has the most remarkable season by a striker in the last 6 years then it wouldn't be sensible to bet on him hitting 30. I think the sensible estimate would be 22 - 27.

Any corrections or data for other xG models welcome.

Source

https://understat.com/player/755

 

[meamth]

Who is the scout that keep finding the midfield powerhouse?

First it was Kante, now it's Ndidi. Who is responsible for that? Need to get him on board.

 

[Fox_Chrys]

I had a look at that website, what is this xG system based on exactly?

Looking across the league it's not particularly accurate, I have determined that from a quick glance.

Is it silly enough to assume shots from defenders have equal chance as shots from strikers and a shot from Southampton with poor build up play has same chance as a shot from Liverpool or Leicester?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I had a look at that website, what is this xG system based on exactly?

Looking across the league it's not particularly accurate, I have determined that from a quick glance.

Is it silly enough to assume shots from defenders have equal chance as shots from strikers and a shot from Southampton with poor build up play has same chance as a shot from Liverpool or Leicester?

Refer to the videos in #163

 

[Bestietom]

A much improved outfit over the past few months. Not missing Maguire, and they still have that money to spend.

 

[kerryman]

If you buy smart it's certainly feasible but you have to have first a manager with good connections in others/lowers leagues, a competent DoF and a good scouting network.

They have bought very wisely, they have built a great team without breaking the bank at the same time as cashing in for some of their top players. Very impressed with how the club is run.

 

[UNITED ACADEMY]

Who is the scout that keep finding the midfield powerhouse?

First it was Kante, now it's Ndidi. Who is responsible for that? Need to get him on board.

However, that person might also be responsible for some money they wasted on Mendy, Musa & Slimani.

 

[meamth]

However, that person might also be responsible for some money they wasted on Mendy, Musa & Slimani.

Apparently that might not be the same person.

However, the person who signed Kante has become shyte:

Walsh scouted obscure players such as Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy and N'Golo Kanté for Leicester, and their contribution to the club's success in the 2015–16 season ostensibly led Arsenal to express an interest for his services. He had a £1 million release clause written into his contract.[4] On 8 May 2016, a few days after the club secured their maiden Premier League title, both Walsh and assistant manager Craig Shakespeare agreed to extend their contracts with Leicester City.[5]

On 21 July 2016, he returned to his native North West England, joining his brother's former team Everton as Director of Football, signed by their new majority shareholder Farhad Moshiri.[6]

In November 2017, Walsh's job was reported as under pressure. Everton had spent £150 million on new players over the summer but found themselves in danger of relegation and were eliminated from the UEFA Europa League.[7] On 16 May 2018, Walsh was relieved of his duties, being replaced by Marcel Brands.[8]

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Apparently that might not be the same person.

However, the person who signed Kante has become shyte:

The truth is that there's a fair bit of luck involved when humans scout which is why clubs are becoming more and more interested in technological solutions.

 

[AllezLesDiables]

I bet you are fun at parties.

Actually, I’m a blast.

 

[meamth]

The truth is that there's a fair bit of luck involved when humans scout which is why clubs are becoming more and more interested in technological solutions.

Hence the new scouting software rumors. We're moving ahead of the pack boys.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Hence the new scouting software rumors. We're moving ahead of the pack boys.

Sad truth is that we're only just catching up.

 

[meamth]

Sad truth is that we're only just catching up.

Late to the moneyball party?

Is there any proof that we're just catching up?

 

[robinamicrowave]

I really like the look of Leicester this season and I think Rodgers has them playing some great stuff, but in terms of their chances of winning the title I'm less certain. I don't think they've won any games yet this season that you wouldn't have expected them to before kick-off. And on the three occasions they've had to really prove themselves as genuine contenders they've floundered and dropped points. Dropped points at Stamford Bridge, lost at Old Trafford and Anfield, would have lost at home to Spurs had VAR not turned the game around. I think they'll finish in the top four, they're dead certs for the top six, but I'm not sure about them winning the league at all.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Late to the moneyball party?

Is there any proof that we're just catching up?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...r-way-to-scout-transfer-targets/#658e56682adb

It's been going since 2004.

 

[meamth]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...r-way-to-scout-transfer-targets/#658e56682adb

It's been going since 2004.

Great read that was. Thank you.

It stated that we've been using it too though.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Great read that was. Thank you.

It stated that we've been using it too though.

According to the puff piece that came out recently it's Ole that has been advocating for us to use data driven methods and modernise.

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

Schmeichel
Simpson Morgan Huth Fuchs
Mahrez Kante Drinkwater Albrighton
Okazaki Vardy

Schmeichel
Ricardo Evans Soyoncu Chilwell
Ndidi
Tielemans Maddison
Perez Vardy Barnes
​

I can literally name their strongest eleven from their last 2 great teams. That's the key to success, having a settled starting eleven. We've not had that in over a decade. They are very lucky with injuries too to be fair.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

I said they can dine out on winning the prem for a lifetime and I made no reference to whether they want to or not. If they were that ambitious, why do they sell their best players? Why didn't they keep them and add to them with more quality to try and retain the prem the following season? No doubt they are playing well but in reality, this is like when they won it, there were a number of big teams that weren't. If Spurs, Arsenal and us weren't in so much disarray, they'd be 3 places lower which is about their level. Push Liverpool all the way, who comes in for anyone of their starting 11 if injured including their 20 goal striker?

They didn't want to sell Maguire they were offered money they simply couldn't refuse. If they can stay fit, like they did when they won it they will stay up there and this whole if Arsenal, United and Spurs had their shit together they would be 3-4 steps back is bullshit. Times change and no team has some divine right to be up there

 

[mwake]

According to the puff piece that came out recently it's Ole that has been advocating for us to use data driven methods and modernise.

What's been going on at United over the years that it took ole to come in and recommend common sense?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

What's been going on at United over the years that it took ole to come in and recommend common sense?

The narrative is that we fell behind the times in Fergie's later years. Moyes famously released a puff piece in the press claiming that he was leading a technological revolution at OT by introducing the use of iPads among the staff, no really.

This latest pro Woodward/Ole puff piece claimed that the scouting department was being revolutionised and that we were using some modern scouting databases and moving towards a data driven method. It highlighted the fact that we had trouble getting a visa for Rojo when we signed him because he has a criminal record but if we were signed up to this new fancy database we would have known that before signing him.

 

[VidaRed]

There is more chance of me playing for Manchester United than Leicester finishing in the top 6 or higher than us.