No ideal outcome was they got knocked out. Celebrating they play an extra game is like wanting the, to get all the way to the final but lose (which while funny gives pundits like Michael Owen and Carragher the opportunity to bang on about almost winning 4 trophies being on par with a 1999 treble)
Liverpool are the luckiest club in the league and it will never end
- Thread starter Pexbo
- Start date
Αh, could be right, rules changing all the time, never know what It is!
Competed in 27 shootouts, won 20
They’ve won 7 cup finals on pens, lost one.
Safe to say percentage wise that is an incredible stat compared to anyone.
Not certain of ours*, but we lost in the Europa League final, and the Arsenal FA cup final. We’ve never won a penalty shootout in the entire 151 year history of the FA Cup.
*just checked, 18 shootouts, won 8.
Penalties are almost pure luck. Skill and mental fortitude has a tiny impact, but it's so small that it almost never determines the outcome of a shootout. To illustrate it, here are the actual statistics when I looked them up last year:
On average, forwards score 75.99% of their penalties.
Defenders score 73.42% of theirs.
Goalkeepers score 71.85% of theirs.
A player who takes >75% of his team's penalties scores an average of 77.33%.
A player who takes <25% of his team's penalties scores 75.34%.
This illustrates how little it matters. There's a few percent's difference between forwards and goalkeepers who virtually never take penalties at all. Skill and experience is nearly irrelevant, it's basically a coin-flip.
Ronaldo, who is known specifically for it, scores 83% of his penalties. It's less than 10% more often than the global average for forwards. The best penalty-taker in the history of football scores slightly more often than random idiots who only have to do it a few times in their entire careers. It's almost entirely luck, with a tiny margin for skill and experience. For reference, Messi's penalty record is 77%. Messi is 2% above average.
Goalkeepers generally just guess. They save roughly 25% of penalties. If you pick a random side and save half the shots that happen to go to that side, what do ya know, that's a 25% chance to save any given penalty. Goalkeepers who are said to be particularly good at penalties have the same tiny, insignificant edge as illustrated with penalty-takers.
When a team has won the vast majority of their penalty shootouts, it's just raw luck on their part. There is no such thing as being outstanding on penalties. The very best are sliiiightly better than the rest. Statistically speaking, this will very rarely change the outcome of a shootout.
It's like flipping a coin ten times and then, if you're particularly "skilled" at it (if we pretend that's possible), getting to choose the outcome on the tenth flip. Now have a coin-flipping contest with someone ten times. How many times would your 1/10 advantage actually result in you winning the contest? Randomness completely dwarfs it. It might get you one win in those ten contests.
In other words, the fact that Liverpool have won seven of their last eight cup final penalty shootouts is demonstrably a case of absurd, wildly improbable luck. It is demonstrably the case that you cannot be so "good" at penalties that skill and merit would result in such a win rate. It's 95% pure luck, and Liverpool have it in silly amounts.
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How many times do away team feck up gilt-edged chances against this mob at Anfield?
Brighton 2:1 Liverpool (FA Cup)
Thanks to @kidbob for the reminder that today, once again, these bellends are facing a team without their best player.
It never fecking ends with this mob. Jammiest team in world sport.
It never fecking ends with this mob. Jammiest team in world sport.
Oh, feck off!
Blatant handball in lead up to Elliott’s goal. No check and no disallowed goal.
Blatant handball in lead up to Elliott’s goal. No check and no disallowed goal.
The decisions at this point in their games follow completely different principles. Klopp has corrupted the game since his tantrum
How this wasn't a handball I don't know, he stopped the ball dead in his thigh with his hand. But nothing surprises me anymore.
Imagine where Liverpool would be this season without constantly getting the rub of the green
The answer is simple. He’s wearing a Liverpool shirt.
The more games they have to play the worse for them. Dont want them having more than enough rest, as I reckon they will get knocked out against the first decent team they play in the champions league.
Liverpool won't make top 4. Absolutely no chance. They have an average unrecognizable team on the pitch.
They need at least 2 new midfielders to replace Henderson/Fabinho/Thiago.
It will be too late before they get back the likes of Diaz, Nunez, Jota, Firmino.
and they don't have VVD, (Matip to some extent) in CB.
They will get tonked in CL against Madrid and most likely end up around 8th or 10th (I wish it was 5th to 7th, but not happening). It will be interesting to see if they buy just-for-this-season midfielders to huff and puff them towards 4th spot (or fail there after) or if they forego this season and build a quality mid for next season. I hope they squander it and buy somebody in Feb (like a Gakpo).
They need at least 2 new midfielders to replace Henderson/Fabinho/Thiago.
It will be too late before they get back the likes of Diaz, Nunez, Jota, Firmino.
and they don't have VVD, (Matip to some extent) in CB.
They will get tonked in CL against Madrid and most likely end up around 8th or 10th (I wish it was 5th to 7th, but not happening). It will be interesting to see if they buy just-for-this-season midfielders to huff and puff them towards 4th spot (or fail there after) or if they forego this season and build a quality mid for next season. I hope they squander it and buy somebody in Feb (like a Gakpo).
They do look a little knackered which is strange given that there was a world cup break. But they aren't pressing as intensely as they used to.
Just madness what they get away with. It’s beyond coincidence at this point
Don’t worry VAR won’t get involved
People call United fans obsessed/bitter/jealous etc. for pointing out the ludicrous decisions and non-decisions these wankers get, but surely the football fraternity at large are seeing this farce for what it is at this point?
2 reds in 2 minutes. Can’t make it up.
escaped handball for the goal and 2 red cards.
Someone needs to call Liverpool out. This is a disgrace
This is going to be offside isn't it?
Bloody Luckypool. Tried their best to cheat to a win. Still lost.
I despise this club. Ever since Klopp's tantrums, it's been one thing after another. Repugnant club. Came out of the tunnel with 13 players and still couldn't win against Brighton.
VAR Referee decisions that's gone Liverpool's way in the FA Cup this season:
1. Salah offside goal v Wolves
2. Wolves goal wrongly disallowed for offside
3. Goal v Brighton from a Keita handball
4. Konate last man elbow not given as a red
5. Fabinho red card offence given in yellow
Yet Liverpool still got knocked out of FA Cup
Yet the media don't talk about that and Man Utd is still "VAR/referee's darling" because of a single decision in our favor.
1. Salah offside goal v Wolves
2. Wolves goal wrongly disallowed for offside
3. Goal v Brighton from a Keita handball
4. Konate last man elbow not given as a red
5. Fabinho red card offence given in yellow
Yet Liverpool still got knocked out of FA Cup
Yet the media don't talk about that and Man Utd is still "VAR/referee's darling" because of a single decision in our favor.
And they only made round 4!
All those dodgy decisions in only 2 rounds. It's insane
Yep. Whenever we get a rare “Liverpool decision” it’ll be highlighted to high heaven for weeks and months. Ignoring that we get at least one of those against us every match.
I knew as soon as that Rashford decision happened that we’d get awful decisions against us for the next few matches and we have. Just like every time. So annoying because it’s so predictable
For a man that once got all up in arms about us getting penalties, Klopps very fecking quiet about his team getting the rub of the green over and over again.
In fairness he's hardly gonna say "Cor blimey referees need to start giving more pens against us and sending our lads off."
it was indeed ABU media/pundits' psychological warfare
The media/social media made a very very huge fuss about Owen scoring at 95:1x in the derby and invented "Until United Scores" meme
and no fuss were made when Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Liverpool had all scored beyond added time plus beyond 96:00 in the next few years
I don’t expect that but I expect people who live in glass houses to shut the feck up.
Yeah very true.
I think it's a good thing. Really goes to show how big we are as a club.
I'm sure Richard Keys is ramping up the campaign to call out Liverpool's favourable decisions right now.
Explains why the refs rarely give a big decision our way because the media make a massive deal out of it for ages and the refs are scrutinised for it, its easier for them to not give us anything
You are for the most part correct obviously but you tend to oversimplify the edges. Small edges add up... If a team manages to get a 55-60% total edge in a shootout they have massive edge over a span of something that's statistically significant.
They don't. This is by far where the biggest edges are gained in shootouts. Donkey Lloris saves 14% of his regular penalties (17/112) and are 0/9 in major tournaments for France. He basically have to get hit by the ball to save a penalty.
On the other hand Martinez saves more than 30% in both high pressure situations and on regular penalites in recent years. Alissons' successrate is 40% in regular penalties throughout his career (lower in shootouts) and Kelleher have been saving above 30% of penalities in shootouts.
However, only Lloris' stats have somewhat statisitical significance and these numbers is not necessary telling the truth.
My assumption is also that the underdog generally have a not irrelevant advantage in cup finals and in other high pressure situations. They have less to lose and I believe Liverpool have been underdogs in most of those finals.
Imagine taking a penalty for Milan in 2005 after bottling 3-0 with a far superior team. And now imagine taking one for Liverpool.
It doesn't. It is statistically insignificant and means nothing. If Liverpool somehow managed to win 700 of 800 shootouts we're talking about a case of absurd, wildly improbable luck.
Confirmation bias (google it) is the reason people tend to feel less lucky than others and why every fan base is whining 24/7. Your eyes and mind is looking to confirm your original belief but the truth is usually somewhere in the middle of everything.
I grew up during Uniteds dominance and as a kid I always felt that United was the luckiest team in the world. Today I realise that the best team is unlucky as well, you just don't see it because they still tend to win even when the descisions go against them.
Every "close" victory United had back in the day felt like unreal luck, even though it in most of the cases ironically probably was the opposite, with United running bad for 80+ minutes and clutching a late victory against tired legs in the end.
Don't turn into Bluemoon guys. This is by far the best forum out there and I've been reading here for years to get a more balanced view on my own team as well as United.
You might ask why?
Yin and yang. I love to "hate" United but United is also a needed "evil" to make football interesting and enjoyable for my part. Football is dead to me the day one of us are bought by an oil-state.
However, in general I agree that Liverpool have been very lucky this season. Especially the game vs Wolves was a joke and painful to watch, even as a Liverpool fan. Given our luck this season the current standings it's almost unbelievable and must be enjoyable for you lot. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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It's crazy how much luck they've had and yet they're still doing absolutely awful
The Faes own goal game was probably the most glaring bit of luck but there's so much else.
The Faes own goal game was probably the most glaring bit of luck but there's so much else.
I don't really believe there are agendas or anything but how on earth Fabinho didn't get sent off is an absolute mystery.
Absolute horror tackle. What were VAR looking at? Even Fabinho looked disgusted with the tackle and he made it!
Absolute horror tackle. What were VAR looking at? Even Fabinho looked disgusted with the tackle and he made it!
If it wasn't for the refs and the luck they have got they would be in the bottom half
Can't wait for Alison to go on a scoring run and get them top 4
The Fabinho tackle - if it was a United player, he'd have got sent off, 6 match ban, there would have been debates in parliament, and United would get no decisions for the next 6 months.
Honestly, it's not even about Liverpool. United get one slightly fortunate decision and after the resulting furore we get nothing for a season. Literally week after week, month after month, nothing. Virtually every debatable var decision goes against us these days.
We should play everybody else's game and start making a big deal about things like the Fabinho tackle and put doubts in referees' heads as to whether they want to be seen as Liverpool biased.
Honestly, it's not even about Liverpool. United get one slightly fortunate decision and after the resulting furore we get nothing for a season. Literally week after week, month after month, nothing. Virtually every debatable var decision goes against us these days.
We should play everybody else's game and start making a big deal about things like the Fabinho tackle and put doubts in referees' heads as to whether they want to be seen as Liverpool biased.
Just seen that Fabinho tackle. It's a form of assault ffs