Liverpool - Premier League champions 19/20 Season

Judge Red

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This isn’t a case of bad luck for City. After being formidable for the last two seasons, they totally Woodwarded their defence this summer and everyone saw it coming back then.

Liverpool will continue to widen the gap.
 

Fosu-Mens

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What's that "expected points" stat based on ?
Expected goals, simulated a number of times with some distribution based on chances created and the quality of those chances. Averaging the points each team gathered based on the simulation gives you expected points.
https://theshortfuse.sbnation.com/2017/11/15/16655916/how-to-calculate-xpoints-analysis-stats-xg

Both Leicester and Liverpool are "overperforming" i.e a lot more points than underlying statistics indicates.
 

el3mel

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Expected goals, simulated a number of times with some distribution based on chances created and the quality of those chances. Averaging the points each team gathered based on the simulation gives you expected points.
https://theshortfuse.sbnation.com/2017/11/15/16655916/how-to-calculate-xpoints-analysis-stats-xg

Both Leicester and Liverpool are "overperforming" i.e a lot more points than underlying statistics indicates.
That's kinda more complicated than I imagined.

Though it's fair to say yeah they haven't been that spectacular this year and scrapped several undeserved wins, so there might be some truth in this.
 

Random Task

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Still not fully convinced. We were awful from 30 minutes onwards and were (generally speaking) controlling games better last season. Firmino was strolling through that game.

Long way to go and we won’t win it playing like we are.

You were a far more balanced side last year, scoring goals for fun and rarely conceding much at the back. Moreover, you looked like a difficult team to beat, often winning games before they had even begun.

That's not the case this year. You're scraping through games - rarely winning them by more than a single goal margin - conceding chances frequently and looking like a very beatable side. Yet find yourselves 11 points clear at the top.

Go figure.
 

Fosu-Mens

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That's kinda more complicated than I imagined.

Though it's fair to say yeah they haven't been that spectacular this year and scrapped several undeserved wins, so there might be some truth in this.
Over time yes. Over a short amount of time, like 3-4 matches, this happens often. It can also be impacted by a great goalkeeper, VVD presence and efficient attacking players, but these elements do not explain the 12+ x.pts difference over only 14 games. Either they improve their performances or they will start to drop points.

City, on the other hand, are underperforming.
 

el3mel

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Over time yes. Over a short amount of time, like 3-4 matches, this happens often. It can also be impacted by a great goalkeeper, VVD presence and efficient attacking players, but these elements do not explain the 12+ x.pts difference over only 14 games. Either they improve their performances or they will start to drop points.

City, on the other hand, are underperforming.
The problem is City have been in a meltdown and the more they drop points, the more their players will lose their shite and go into a bigger meltdown.
 

Fosu-Mens

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The problem is City have been in a meltdown and the more they drop points, the more their players will lose their shite and go into a bigger meltdown.
They have not been as good as last year statistically, but comfortably better than Liverpool and Leicester.
The game today against Newcastle was another example of City being inefficient in both ends. Based on the chances created, Newcastle got expected goals of 0.22 and City 2.44. Still, the game ended 2-2. Over time this will end up going in Citys favour if they continue to perform like this. Liverpool, on the other hand, will not be able to sustain this point gathering with their performances as they currently are.
 

Random Task

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Over time yes. Over a short amount of time, like 3-4 matches, this happens often. It can also be impacted by a great goalkeeper, VVD presence and efficient attacking players, but these elements do not explain the 12+ x.pts difference over only 14 games. Either they improve their performances or they will start to drop points.

City, on the other hand, is underperforming.
Aside from Liverpool, no team is producing results as expected. That, in combination with a number of fortuitous VAR decisions, last-minute goals, opposition errors at the back and in front of goal, and a first team that is seemingly immune from injury, it's difficult to argue against it being their year.

They may even end up winning it unchallenged.
 

el3mel

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They have not been as good as last year statistically, but comfortably better than Liverpool and Leicester.
The game today against Newcastle was another example of City being inefficient in both ends. Based on the chances created, Newcastle got expected goals of 0.22 and City 2.44. Still, the game ended 2-2. Over time this will end up going in Citys favour if they continue to perform like this. Liverpool, on the other hand, will not be able to sustain this point gathering with their performances as they currently are.
They have been better performance wise for sure, but I believe the points gap and Liverpool scrapping wins while being not that great are starting to get into their players heads and the more this will keep on, the more they'll lose more points.
 

Finn MacCool

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It's hard to see us continuing to win games if performances don't pick up. Even though we narrowly won a lot of the first ten games we were still the better team in most of those games. But the last 3 performances which includes Napoli we have for majority of the game been poor or average. We look tired and we're too slow to close down especially in midfield where we're not hounding the opposition as normal. Short breaks for last two summers and a gruelling last campaign look like they're finally catching up on us. We need to rotate but the drop off in quality is so big. If tiredness is the issue then I think we'll pick up more injuries as a result.

Hope the 2nd string lose to Villa in the LC - we don't need a semi-final double header in January. If we can manage to get thru December with the gap maintained (albeit it will likely be cut because of game against WHU being postponed due to CWC) it will be an achievement. Leicester away on Boxing Day looms large as a huge hurdle to overcome. I don't think they have the squad to get 90+ points and can't see lightning strike twice in such a short period of time but the sooner they fall away the better.
 

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It's hard to see us continuing to win games if performances don't pick up. Even though we narrowly won a lot of the first ten games we were still the better team in most of those games. But the last 3 performances which includes Napoli we have for majority of the game been poor or average. We look tired and we're too slow to close down especially in midfield where we're not hounding the opposition as normal. Short breaks for last two summers and a gruelling last campaign look like they're finally catching up on us. We need to rotate but the drop off in quality is so big. If tiredness is the issue then I think we'll pick up more injuries as a result.

Hope the 2nd string lose to Villa in the LC - we don't need a semi-final double header in January. If we can manage to get thru December with the gap maintained (albeit it will likely be cut because of game against WHU being postponed due to CWC) it will be an achievement. Leicester away on Boxing Day looms large as a huge hurdle to overcome. I don't think they have the squad to get 90+ points and can't see lightning strike twice in such a short period of time but the sooner they fall away the better.
Hope to go out from a cup sounds crazy. You got a big gap down so can afford to rotate more. Also can rotate in the cups.
 

Fosu-Mens

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They have been better performance wise for sure, but I believe the points gap and Liverpool scrapping wins while being not that great are starting to get into their players heads and the more this will keep on, the more they'll lose more points.
I think City will take some points on them before Christmas. Will go for a new centre back in January and Laporte coming back in February will fix things in defence. Liverpool with an injury to VVD, Firmino or Mane will make them vulnerable. City still able to dominate games despite missing their best defender that is important for their attacking play says something about their abilities as a team.

Don't think it is over yet, far from it.
 

elánius

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Everything is working for them. Looks like Leicester might be their biggest contender. ManCity will focus on Champions League and without top CB, they are definitely nothing to worry about. And they probably deserve it, Klopp is doing wodnerful job.
 

Finn MacCool

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Hope to go out from a cup sounds crazy. You got a big gap down so can afford to rotate more. Also can rotate in the cups.
In an ideal world I would agree. But the LC and to a lesser extent the FAC are very much second rate trophies nowadays. Sad but true. And the other 3 in the LC semi-finals are likely to be Utd, City and Leicester - not much room for rotation against any of those sides.

This is shaping up to be our best opportunity to won the title since 1990 - I'm more than happy to sacrifice the domestic cups and cut down on games. We still have our mid December jaunt to Qatar to deal with.
 

Josh 76

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In an ideal world I would agree. But the LC and to a lesser extent the FAC are very much second rate trophies nowadays. Sad but true. And the other 3 in the LC semi-finals are likely to be Utd, City and Leicester - not much room for rotation against any of those sides.

This is shaping up to be our best opportunity to won the title since 1990 - I'm more than happy to sacrifice the domestic cups and cut down on games. We still have our mid December jaunt to Qatar to deal with.
Oh come one Liverpool fans. 11 fecking points clear and with the consistency you have shown in the last 2 years, this is in the bag. So why do you want to go out of the domestic cups??
I could understand if it was only 2 or 3 points.
You will never get a better chance to win the treble in my opinion. Klopp has Europe sussed (never lost a 2 legged European game at Liverpool backs that up) and with all the big European Clubs in a "transistion" and as mentioned earlier (11 points clear), surely you should be going for the TREBLE.
 

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Oh come one Liverpool fans. 11 fecking points clear and with the consistency you have shown in the last 2 years, this is in the bag. So why do you want to go out of the domestic cups??
I could understand if it was only 2 or 3 points.
You will never get a better chance to win the treble in my opinion. Klopp has Europe sussed (never lost a 2 legged European game at Liverpool backs that up) and with all the big European Clubs in a "transistion" and as mentioned earlier (11 points clear), surely you should be going for the TREBLE.
That Salzburg game in 10 days won't be a walkover. It'll be a bear pit and they are fantastic offensively. Liverpool have a job on their hand there, especially without Fabinho. Can't afford to start slow or casually, because Salzburg would blitze them.
 

Dick Dastardly

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Just watched the Liverpool v Brighton game. Their record over the last couple of seasons is fantastic and they are going to improve over the next few years. The only players past their peak are Milner and Lalana. Both are peripheral players and will be improved upon. Henderson is a big strong player with poor technical skills, he will be upgraded on. Salah is way off the pace but could be sold for a fortune. Lovren is a liability and will be upgraded.

I won’t comment on Wrexham, so sad.
 

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League has been over since Mane dived to win that penalty against Leicester and they gave it, it was a real momentum shift in the title race from there when they shouldn't have even been allowed the opportunity

I really don't care anymore If they win it or not but I want United to get back to wanting to being the best team in England again, or at least showing us next season that we are improving instead of the shit and excuses we get now from Ole, Woodward etc.
 

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I don't think we would have been able to do anything about Liverpool even in our prime.

We were an 85-90pt side with only ever one rival a season.

Man City and Liverpool are 95-100 point teams and have to battle against each other as well as at least 3 other decent sides.

Sad but that's the way it is.
Nah, the most frustrating thing about SAF was that he almost always knew how to do just enough to win the league. Everything in his track record points to him being able to do whatever it took to catch up with 95-100 point teams if that's what was needed to win the league. It's just that there was no one pushing Utd to the extent that Liverpool and City pushed each other last season. I mean, in the 2008-2009 season, starting Boxing Day, Utd went P 20 W 18 D 0 L 2 before a 0-0 draw against Arsenal clinched the title.
 
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DAK222

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Many on here were bad wrong that this season Liverpool won't continue to be this strong. Last season didn't break them, they go on just like they did in Europe after their first Champions-League under Klopp's guidance. Their mental fortitude has to be amazing...:(
Amazing yes, but hardly a surprise. Players like Salah, Mane, Robertson have had a tough journey to the top, not to mention Klopp's time at Mainz. In his first full season managing Mainz they missed promotion by a point, in the second season they missed it on goal difference and then got promoted the third year -- for the very first time in the club's history. That kind of experience is priceless.
 

Fussball13251

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That Fabinho injury is a massive blow. People underestimate in the importance of him in the team.... he controls the midfield. Without him they will be way more susceptible to dropping points. Just makes them a little more beatable.

Fabinho is probably the best defensive midfielder you there. The amount of dispossessions he does in midfield.... a tank. He also drops back to help in defence.
 
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MrVolley

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Nah, the most frustrating thing about SAF was that he almost always knew how to do just enough to win the league. Everything in his track record points to him being able to do whatever it took to catch up with 95-100 point teams if that's what was needed to win the league. It's just that there was no one pushing Utd to the extent that Liverpool and City pushed each other last season. I mean, in the 2008-2009 season, starting Boxing Day, Utd went P 20 W 18 D 0 L 2 before a 0-0 draw against Arsenal clinched the title.
08/09 is a cherry picked season out of 25! We were slow starters nearly every other season (except '93).

I think it's a case of Man City and Liverpool have a different view of the game. They treat draws as losses. We used to play the percentages.

As I always say... the game has changed. Just like athletes get faster over the years, teams also get better - mentally and physically.

Much of this is assisted by money. For 20 years we were the biggest spenders by far and that showed in the domestic results and trophies. In Europe where we were matched on spending, we struggled relatively.

Now Man City and Liverpool are matching us on the spending and the results are there to see.

But for a few exceptions, it's a money game. It has been ever since I can remember. This is why over in the US they have a salary cap and draft procedure, but that's a totally different discussion.

Until we get a manager and owners who can galvanize the club with a single vision (like City and Liverpool) and back it with funds, I'm afraid we will struggle.

Owner+Manager+Funds=Success

At the moment we only have the 3rd part of the equation.
 

Buchan

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Firmino and Salah are woefully out of form lately. Mane’s form has tailed off noticeably, too. In their last two games, they’ve only scored set-piece goals from their centre-halves. That isn’t sustainable. Their bum-rush midfield doesn’t create a jot and teams are becoming wise to their Moyes-esque penchant from launching (pretty much) aimless balls into the box from the wide areas in the hope a ball will inevitably pinball to the feet of an attacker, who’ll duly scuff a goal. Absolutely shite football but somehow - inexplicably - gets lauded.

They may have a case to deserve being top of the table this season thus far, but to be that far clear is preposterous. Their run of good fortune is nigh-on two seasons long now. It truly is remarkable and unprecedented in the sport.
 
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Dumbstar

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Always reminds me of a sportsman when asked of accusations that he was always so lucky. He replied, I agree, the harder I work the luckier I get.
 

Dick Dastardly

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Always reminds me of a sportsman when asked of accusations that he was always so lucky. He replied, I agree, the harder I work the luckier I get.
I believe it was the golfer Gary Player who said that.
 

DAK222

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08/09 is a cherry picked season out of 25! We were slow starters nearly every other season (except '93).
I picked that season because when you needed to put in a run to beat Liverpool pretty much like Man City had to in 18/19, you did! :( Show me a time where the bar was raised and SAF didn't raise his game. Sometimes it took him 2-3 years, but he always did it. I wouldn't have been caught dead saying something like this 9 or 10 years ago. But time is a great healer. That and Utd now struggling to get into the top 4.;)

I think it's a case of Man City and Liverpool have a different view of the game. They treat draws as losses. We used to play the percentages.
You used to play the percentages because that was good enough back then! That's my point.

Firmino and Salah are woefully out of form lately. Mane’s form has tailed off noticeably, too. In their last two games, they’ve only scored set-piece goals from their centre-halves. That isn’t sustainable. Their bum-rush midfield doesn’t create a jot and teams are becoming wise to their Moyes-esque penchant from launching (pretty much) aimless balls into the box from the wide areas in the hope a ball will inevitably pinball to the feet of an attacker, who’ll duly scuff a goal. Absolutely shite football but somehow - inexplicably - gets lauded.
Aimless balls? Haha! Good then that our attackers have huge feet and our defenders have huge heads. Also, who are these people lauding our football?! All the talk is about the mentality that keeps the players going deep into the game in spite of playing poorly and still managing to nick a win.

Maybe the shite football has something to do with how the opposition teams are setting up? But from what I've learned on this thread so far, Klopp shouldn't complain if teams set up defensively against Liverpool but then also ensure that against such teams Liverpool only score smooth flowing goals while at the same time forbidding players to score headers or worldies because that would look too lucky.
 

PickledRed

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Firmino and Salah are woefully out of form lately. Mane’s form has tailed off noticeably, too. In their last two games, they’ve only scored set-piece goals from their centre-halves. That isn’t sustainable. Their bum-rush midfield doesn’t create a jot and teams are becoming wise to their Moyes-esque penchant from launching (pretty much) aimless balls into the box from the wide areas in the hope a ball will inevitably pinball to the feet of an attacker, who’ll duly scuff a goal. Absolutely shite football but somehow - inexplicably - gets lauded.

They may have a case to deserve being top of the table this season thus far, but to be that far clear is preposterous. Their run of good fortune is nigh-on two seasons long now. It truly is remarkable and unprecedented in the sport.
‘May have’?

11 clear...who else has a case?
 

Paul_Scholes18

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In an ideal world I would agree. But the LC and to a lesser extent the FAC are very much second rate trophies nowadays. Sad but true. And the other 3 in the LC semi-finals are likely to be Utd, City and Leicester - not much room for rotation against any of those sides.

This is shaping up to be our best opportunity to won the title since 1990 - I'm more than happy to sacrifice the domestic cups and cut down on games. We still have our mid December jaunt to Qatar to deal with.
Then rotate in the semi final too if needed and also rotate in the Fa cup and easier league games. Better to do that then go out. I guess you fear being knocked out by us in the semi?
 

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You were a far more balanced side last year, scoring goals for fun and rarely conceding much at the back. Moreover, you looked like a difficult team to beat, often winning games before they had even begun.

That's not the case this year. You're scraping through games - rarely winning them by more than a single goal margin - conceding chances frequently and looking like a very beatable side. Yet find yourselves 11 points clear at the top.

Go figure.
liverpool’s last loss in the league was 03 jan 2019. In about a month the will go unbeaten in the league for 1 year. Yeah the title race is over. Do you see Liverpool who have been cruising so far and haven’t even hit peak form yet lose 4 games this season? Also do you see city/Leicester winning all their remaining games? Because that is what it will take to even have a chance of challenging Liverpool this season
 

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LiVARpool at it again this round. Using illegal Brighton players in their wall without VAR stepping in. Shocking, sickening, and shows how the FA is well and thoroughly bought. Disgrace.
 

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liverpool’s last loss in the league was 03 jan 2019. In about a month the will go unbeaten in the league for 1 year. Yeah the title race is over. Do you see Liverpool who have been cruising so far and haven’t even hit peak form yet lose 4 games this season? Also do you see city/Leicester winning all their remaining games? Because that is what it will take to even have a chance of challenging Liverpool this season
In about a month, we'll go unbeaten for a whole year?
Yes that will happen... if we don't lose during our hectic December schedule. If watching football for 35+ years has taught me anything, it's that nothing is guaranteed. We have to play Leicester away yet and they have proved they're no pushovers.
 

ScouseDipper

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In about a month, we'll go unbeaten for a whole year?
Yes that will happen... if we don't lose during our hectic December schedule. If watching football for 35+ years has taught me anything, it's that nothing is guaranteed. We have to play Leicester away yet and they have proved they're no pushovers.
I am more worried about the lesser teams like Watford. They will park the bus so the front 3 needs to find their form soon. Leicester will be easier because they will attack and Liverpool are deadly on the counter.
 

Klopper76

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Firmino and Salah are woefully out of form lately. Mane’s form has tailed off noticeably, too. In their last two games, they’ve only scored set-piece goals from their centre-halves. That isn’t sustainable. Their bum-rush midfield doesn’t create a jot and teams are becoming wise to their Moyes-esque penchant from launching (pretty much) aimless balls into the box from the wide areas in the hope a ball will inevitably pinball to the feet of an attacker, who’ll duly scuff a goal. Absolutely shite football but somehow - inexplicably - gets lauded.

They may have a case to deserve being top of the table this season thus far, but to be that far clear is preposterous. Their run of good fortune is nigh-on two seasons long now. It truly is remarkable and unprecedented in the sport.
You post some absolute nonsense about Liverpool but this is right up there. Aimless balls into the box? You think Alexander-Arnold just pumps aimless balls? If it’s that easy why aren’t more full backs getting his sort of numbers?

We haven’t always played well this season but we create plenty in most games and it’s anything but Moyes-esque. You’re desperate to find some excuse to link to our position but the reality is that we’re a very good side. Not perfect but very good.

Moyes-esque...ffs.
 

TheOx

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We need to find our form again ASAP. We did not play well in our last two games.
We can’t enter our toughest month so far playing like this. Really worried.
 

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They're all the soppy bedwetters RAWK has Banhammered for not believing 40 years of total domination is inevitable.