Ex Liverpool players should never be given punditry roles. Excluding Carragher, they are all extremely biased which is shocking when they are meant to be impartial.
Liverpool: The Invincibles 2016/2017 (as imagined by Mark Lawrenson) | Now Double Invincibles
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As much as Liverpool are perhaps an achilles heel for him, he’s actually a profitable predictor.
The aggregated league tables of predictions always look strange because the big teams are favourites for most of their matches, even if their odds will also imply that they will drop points somewhat frequently. You might have predicted City to win 35+ of their individual games this season, even if you expect them to ultimately win fewer than that in total. It is more likely that they win than drop points though in each individual game, so predicting them to win is the sensible pick. I’m sure if you asked Lawrenson at the start of the season he would predict United, Spurs and Liverpool to lose more than 1, 1 and 0 games respectively.
You see this fallacy on this forum every single year when we have a kind run of good fixtures, then numerous mugs line up to say that United should get 30/30 points or 28 at a bare minimum, and we inevitably fall well short. People failing to fully appreciate odds is why bookies have a licence to print money.
Most matches end 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 or 2-1, so you should rarely predict otherwise.
Don't even know what's this all about.
he's actually got the order of the top 6 correct, which is pretty decent going.
Bang on. Under Fergie there would have been plenty of seasons where United would have been bookies favourite to win every single match at home, and realistically it would be the most likely outcome of each individual match taken in isolation. On a week by week basis, predicting each game as an individual event picking United to win would be the move. You wouldn't actually expect them to win every game over the course of the season.
Game A - You think a team has a 60% chance of winning
Game B - You think they have a 75% chance of winning
Game C - You think they have a 40% chance of winning, a draw 30% chance and a loss 30%
Game D - You think they have a 50% chance of winning, 30% draw, 20% loss
You're going to pick them to win every game in your predictions aren't you because you think it's the most likely outcome each time? A league table would show that you had them down for 12 points out of 12 but you wouldn't think they're going to do that. If you're actually right with your percentage assessments for each match the chances of wining all 4 and getting 12 points are 9%.
I used to play I Know The Score, it was the official score prediction game of Premier League. It was never as popular as fantasy football but I preferred it, was pretty good at it too. I didn't do anything special and would enter very obvious choices week in week out, using a couple of betting systems that I toyed around with/partly made myself. Everything very stat driven. I got top 100 in the world a couple of times and one year I noticed a player called 'Lawro's tips' or 'Lawro's predictions', something like that. Someone was entering all his predicitions (I checked) and he was right up there too.
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hahaha well there is also that
Erm, not really. He makes the score predictions on a weekly basis so can make adjustments by using the real table as an indication.
Double Invincible’s without winning the damn thing
I wonder if they still receive the gold trophy Arsenal got?
I wonder if they still receive the gold trophy Arsenal got?
So what about the games where he predited they wouldn't lose and dammit they did?
So is he going to have an open top bus parade for the two titles they have won, but actually haven't?
I think we've discussed this a year or two ago on here, but each week Mark Lawrenson does predictions on that week's games. It seems that for two seasons running he has forecast Liverpool to repeat the Invincibles' effort and go unbeaten. Now, admittedly he only forecasts each week's games in isolation, so he's not really taking into account the idea that logic and probability would suggest that they're bound to lose at some point and he basically treats it like a bookie by just deciding which result is most likely without any real context, but even so, this means that he just never expects Liverpool to lose, even against the top 4.
Also, it's quite a Liverpool thing to forecast a two season, 76 game unbeaten streak and only have a second place and sneaking into the CL places in fourth to show for it. That team would have been the most amazing team in the history of English football, statistically, and they'd be just about qualifying for the first CL qualifier.
This season's effort is also pretty extraordinary. The top 4 were forecast to lose 3 games between them all season.
Also, it's quite a Liverpool thing to forecast a two season, 76 game unbeaten streak and only have a second place and sneaking into the CL places in fourth to show for it. That team would have been the most amazing team in the history of English football, statistically, and they'd be just about qualifying for the first CL qualifier.
This season's effort is also pretty extraordinary. The top 4 were forecast to lose 3 games between them all season.
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I hope Real Madrid gives them an epic thrashing.
25 points is all you needed to stay up this season.
ridiculousGood post and something I hadnt really considered (not that I had spent much time thinking about the topic anyway).
Also @Chipper
It would be funny other than the fact he’s paid a ridiculous wage as an expert and then has a ridiculous bias to his own team.
Mere words cannot express how funny it will be if Liverpool were to drop out of the top 4 on the last day of the season, then get destroyed in the CL final.
I would literally give blood to see this happen.
I would literally give blood to see this happen.
Also we got 97 points and didn’t win the league
Imagine the uproar if it was Gary Neville who did that.
Yeah, we did a predictions league at work for a few years and I always used to compare to Lawro's and it would only ever be me, him and one other guy topping the table. Other colleagues used to regularly mock his article without realising he's actually darn good at it.
Unless you know what you are doing, taking Lawro's predictions wholesale bar Liverpool matches is actually a decent strategy. Radio 4's More or Less have done a feature or two on his predos too.
he has never been the same since he lost the tashNice to see Southampton in 10th.
fecking hell, Alaska. He's a bit thick isn't he?
BBC themselves taking the piss
Still amazes me he didn't get fired. Vile.
The funny thing is that Lawro is very good predictor on the whole and has been consistently profitable for some time.
That’s hilarious
to be fair though didn’t someone bet all of his predictions for a season & end up being quite profitable. I remember reading that somewhere.
to be fair though didn’t someone bet all of his predictions for a season & end up being quite profitable. I remember reading that somewhere.
You would win a lot of casual prediction leagues taking Lawro's predictions verbatim and just replacing his Liverpool ones with the favourite scoreline of the betting markets.That’s hilarious
to be fair though didn’t someone bet all of his predictions for a season & end up being quite profitable. I remember reading that somewhere.
Time to retire it looks like.
They changed it.
Lawro losing it or website bod with a typo?
They changed it.
Lawro losing it or website bod with a typo?
Lawrenson outsmarted all of you.
Congrats to Sheffield for winning 2-2 and congrats to Lawro for correctly predicting it.
He predicted 2-1.
I don't get it. Samid's post was to highlight that in the text he said he fancied Sheffield United to win, but then the score at the bottom of the pic he posted said 2-2. He was making fun of the 2-2 prediction not matching what was written.
My post was to show that they changed it 2-1. I'm quite sure it was just an error by whoever works at the BBC typing up what he said incorrectly but it was fun to entertain the idea that it was a mistake by him, going on about them winning it then actually predicting a 2-2 when it came down to it.
Did you think we were making fun of him for predicting them to win?
So in Lawro world Liverpool did four consecutive invincible season's on the spin
I see now that he is not only predicting every game either 1-0,2-1 or 2-0 but he isnt even giving synopsys of half the games now. Not that it matters.
I don’t begrudge him earning a wage from BBC for this but at least be realistic in predictions as for last 2-3 years it looks like he has a formula for scores and lazy reasoning.
I don’t begrudge him earning a wage from BBC for this but at least be realistic in predictions as for last 2-3 years it looks like he has a formula for scores and lazy reasoning.