Metrics of change

[Pogue Mahone]

God knows we all need a glimmer of hope right now. So I was pleased to read this:

Even in our disastrous two first games we had 63% and 67% possession. As opposed to the corresponding fixtures last season, where we had 50% and 56%. So even in these early stages we can see that shift towards more possession beginning.

Some evidence that what we’re seeing is maybe not exactly the same as the shite served up last season?

If anyone has any other data which is trending in a positive (or at least different!) direction, please add in below. Hopefully we’ll accumulate more and more as the season goes on.

 

[Skills]

We need some context here too:

When Brighton beat us 4-0 we also had 62% possession last season. Its because, once those teams go 2 goals up their best strategy is to try and hit us on the break. They weren't going for the kill anymore - and were relying on a stretched defence giving them opportunities.

That's actually why Bruno missing that chance against Brighton was such a killer for us. It gives us opportunities to do the same on the other end. We need to get better at being the team who gets the break through first and quickly, because the dynamic of the entire game changes as soon as you go up a goal.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

We need some context here too:

When Brighton beat us 4-0 we also had 62% possession last season. Its because, once those teams go 2 goals up their best strategy is to try and hit us on the break. They weren't going for the kill anymore - and were relying on a stretched defence giving them opportunities.

That's actually why Bruno missing that chance against Brighton was such a killer for us. It gives us opportunities to do the same on the other end. We need to get better at being the team who gets the break through first and quickly, because the dynamic of the entire game changes as soon as you go up a goal.

Don't p*** on his chips.

 

[pocco]

We need some context here too:

When Brighton beat us 4-0 we also had 62% possession last season. Its because, once those teams go 2 goals up their best strategy is to try and hit us on the break. They weren't going for the kill anymore - and were relying on a stretched defence giving them opportunities.

That's actually why Bruno missing that chance against Brighton was such a killer for us. It gives us opportunities to do the same on the other end. We need to get better at being the team who gets the break through first and quickly, because the dynamic of the entire game changes as soon as you go up a goal.

Sadly I feel this is a big factor so far. Both teams put the brakes on for the second half and allowed us the ball. If they continued with the intensity of the first half, I can't help but think we'd have continued to turn the ball over with ease.

 

[GazTheLegend]

If you're 4-0 up you're going to take your foot off the gas. Liverpool could have beaten us 10-0 last season but they stepped back at 4 and "settled" for the 5.

 

[sullydnl]

We need some context here too:

When Brighton beat us 4-0 we also had 62% possession last season. Its because, once those teams go 2 goals up their best strategy is to try and hit us on the break. They weren't going for the kill anymore - and were relying on a stretched defence giving them opportunities.

That's actually why Bruno missing that chance against Brighton was such a killer for us. It gives us opportunities to do the same on the other end. We need to get better at being the team who gets the break through first and quickly, because the dynamic of the entire game changes as soon as you go up a goal.

Well you sure sucked the optimsim out of this thread quickly.

But yes, you're right, game state changes a lot. We need a bigger sample size of games before we start pointing to those sort of underlying changes.

Unless it suits whatever argument I'm making obviously, in which case I'll use it anyway.

 

[Greck]

Nice stat. We'd be so much better if ETH had the right tools. Some of the goals we conceded came straight off of our own possession. The ball doesnt stick with these players. They make possession feel like the other team is just as likely to score.

 

[Teja]

Possession is too simple though. I know you have issues with xG Pogue but over the season that's by far the best metric to evaluate.

I'd propose we need to see significant improvement in xG, xGA, PPDA by the end of the season to demonstrate progress.

Points and results don't matter right now to me.

 

[Skills]

Well you sure sucked the optimsim out of this thread quickly.

But yes, you're right, game state changes a lot. We need a bigger sample size of games before we start pointing to those sort of underlying changes.

Unless it suits whatever argument I'm making obviously, in which case I'll use it anyway.

It's funny, because thing I did last week after the Brighton game was to compare the possession stats of the two game to try and put a positive spin on it, Unfortunately, it just wasn't there.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Why do they even want possession when they could do us like they did for the 4th goal? One long ball over the top and they have a one on one vs Luke Shaw dragging his fat ass all over the grass, failing to tackle. The games were lost in the first half.

 

[rimaldo]

i had absolutely no expectations coming into this season so i didn’t feel anything when brentford scored 4 first half goals. that’s an improvement on last year.

 

[justsomebloke]

God knows we all need a glimmer of hope right now. So I was pleased to read this:



Some evidence that what we’re seeing is maybe not exactly the same as the shite served up last season?

If anyone has any other data which is trending in a positive (or at least different!) direction, please add in below. Hopefully we’ll accumulate more and more as the season goes on.

On the other hand, our combined xG for those two games were 2.32, so we didn't do much with all that possession. In the equivalent fixtures last season it was 4.81. And our opponents combined xG were 3.12, which means they outcreated us for scoring chances with much less possession. Last season, the xGA in those matches were pretty similar, at 3.34.

Not to mention that we made poor use even of the few chances we did create (1 goal for a 2.32 xG), while our 6 goals allowed was nearly twice our xGA. Normally you could reasonably interpret this as bad luck, but in this case a lack of confidence and muddled decision-making in individual situations seems like a better explanation.

Very different from last season, when we scored 5 goals off our 4.81 xG, and allowed just 1 from our 3.34 xGA in these matches.

Not sure though if any sample this small really tells us anything much. Over the season as a whole, we almost perfectly matched our xG and xGA last season.

 

[Henrik1990]

We need some context here too:

When Brighton beat us 4-0 we also had 62% possession last season. Its because, once those teams go 2 goals up their best strategy is to try and hit us on the break. They weren't going for the kill anymore - and were relying on a stretched defence giving them opportunities.

That's actually why Bruno missing that chance against Brighton was such a killer for us. It gives us opportunities to do the same on the other end. We need to get better at being the team who gets the break through first and quickly, because the dynamic of the entire game changes as soon as you go up a goal.

To reintroduce at least some of the hope presented in the opening post, your context is missing the fact that we had something like 70% of the possession after around 25-30 minutes against Brentford, so we actually had very high possession stats at 0-0 and at 1-0, despite their high press.
Against Brighton, in the early stages we also had similar possession stats, although after about 20 minutes there was a period of total ball domination by Brighton, during which they scored as well.

There were some crisp passing moves in both of the matches, but due to the inconsistent nature of our passing game and the fact that we fell behind early in both games, no one is paying attention to the fact that our passing is actually quite a bit sharper that before. It'd be interesting to see how it would translate to a game where we actually manage to take the lead and players can develop even a slither of confidence.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

On the other hand, our combined xG for those two games were 2.32, so we didn't do much with all that possession. In the equivalent fixtures last season it was 4.81. And our opponents combined xG were 3.12, which means they outcreated us for scoring chances with much less possession. Last season, the xGA in those matches were pretty similar, at 3.34.

Not to mention that we made poor use even of the few chances we did create (1 goal for a 2.32 xG), while our 6 goals allowed was nearly twice our xGA. Normally you could reasonably interpret this as bad luck, but in this case a lack of confidence and muddled decision-making in individual situations seems like a better explanation.

Very different from last season, when we scored 5 goals off our 4.81 xG, and allowed just 1 from our 3.34 xGA in these matches.

Not sure though if any sample this small really tells us anything much. Over the season as a whole, we almost perfectly matched our xG and xGA last season.

Well that all makes grim reading.

Get back in your box, @sullydnl!

 

[Lentwood]

Possession is only useful in football for teams who can use it...many teams actively pursue a strategy of not controlling the ball and instead looking to steal it in dangerous areas through a high-press or to sit-in deep and launch fast counter-attacks.

I have played tonnes of football myself, some of it very poor (Sunday League), some of it decent amateur (Manchester Saturday Division 1 and County Cup) and some of it fair (University 1st team, Premier League academy, regional low-level semi-professional) and the common theme across all of them is that being the team who has the ball and tries to play is very difficult and requires a great deal of skill and confidence!

The 'easiest' way to play football, at any level, is to move the ball forward quickly and directly when you have it and to sit-in with two solid banks of four/five when your opponent has the ball.

Hence why I believe possession is over-rated IF you can't use it effectively. IF you can use it effectively, then you're likely to be able to consistently compete for major trophies but if you can't and you try, you're going to cause big, big problems for yourself!

 

[sullydnl]

Another sort-of positive deliberate misuse stats:

Going by Fbref we conceded 1.6 xG to Brighton and 1.8 xG to Brentford.

Last season that same 4-0 Brentford loss would only have been the 14th worst of our Premier League campaign in that regard.

Equal with a game against Wolves and less than in games against Brentford, Brighton, Watford, Norwich, Villa and Leicester along with games against all the other top four contenders.

Actually maybe that's less a positive for this season and more a reflection on how terrible we were last season. But still.

 

[reelworld]

We need some context here too:

When Brighton beat us 4-0 we also had 62% possession last season. Its because, once those teams go 2 goals up their best strategy is to try and hit us on the break. They weren't going for the kill anymore - and were relying on a stretched defence giving them opportunities.

That's actually why Bruno missing that chance against Brighton was such a killer for us. It gives us opportunities to do the same on the other end. We need to get better at being the team who gets the break through first and quickly, because the dynamic of the entire game changes as soon as you go up a goal.

We already have most of the possession when it was 0-0

 

[justsomebloke]

Another sort-of positive deliberate misuse stats:

Going by Fbref we conceded 1.6 xG to Brighton and 1.8 xG to Brentford.

Last season that same 4-0 Brentford loss would only have been the 14th worst of our Premier League campaign in that regard.

Equal with a game against Wolves and less than in games against Brentford, Brighton, Watford, Norwich, Villa and Leicester along with games against all the other top four contenders.

Actually maybe that's less a positive for this season and more a reflection on how terrible we were last season. But still.

You mean the xGA we had in the 4-0 loss against Brentford would only have been our 14th worst xGA last season? Which says....what exactly?

By any reasonable reading, the performance last year home to Brighton and away to Brentford was much, much better than our opening two games this season when it comes to both xG and actual goals scored/allowed.

 

[sullydnl]

You mean the xGA we had in the 4-0 loss against Brentford would only have been our 14th worst xGA last season? Which says....what exactly?

By any reasonable reading, the performance last year home to Brighton and away to Brentford was much, much better than our opening two games this season when it comes to both xG and actual goals scored/allowed.

It doesn't really say anything. That's why I said it was a deliberate misuse of stats. I just thought it was interesting.

 

[Withnail]

On the other hand, our combined xG for those two games were 2.32, so we didn't do much with all that possession. In the equivalent fixtures last season it was 4.81. And our opponents combined xG were 3.12, which means they outcreated us for scoring chances with much less possession. Last season, the xGA in those matches were pretty similar, at 3.34.

Not to mention that we made poor use even of the few chances we did create (1 goal for a 2.32 xG), while our 6 goals allowed was nearly twice our xGA. Normally you could reasonably interpret this as bad luck, but in this case a lack of confidence and muddled decision-making in individual situations seems like a better explanation.

Very different from last season, when we scored 5 goals off our 4.81 xG, and allowed just 1 from our 3.34 xGA in these matches.

Not sure though if any sample this small really tells us anything much. Over the season as a whole, we almost perfectly matched our xG and xGA last season.

Yeah on xG, xGA and that expected points which I'm iffy about we're mid to bottom half of the table. Things need to start improving and quickly.

 

[Champ]

Possession is only useful in football for teams who can use it...many teams actively pursue a strategy of not controlling the ball and instead looking to steal it in dangerous areas through a high-press or to sit-in deep and launch fast counter-attacks.

I have played tonnes of football myself, some of it very poor (Sunday League), some of it decent amateur (Manchester Saturday Division 1 and County Cup) and some of it fair (University 1st team, Premier League academy, regional low-level semi-professional) and the common theme across all of them is that being the team who has the ball and tries to play is very difficult and requires a great deal of skill and confidence!

The 'easiest' way to play football, at any level, is to move the ball forward quickly and directly when you have it and to sit-in with two solid banks of four/five when your opponent has the ball.

Hence why I believe possession is over-rated IF you can't use it effectively. IF you can use it effectively, then you're likely to be able to consistently compete for major trophies but if you can't and you try, you're going to cause big, big problems for yourself!

You are statistically less likely to score the more passes you have.

Most goals are conceded through mistakes and turnovers, which support everything you have said.

The issue with our possession is we don't actually control the game with it. It's always Infront of the opposition, never behind it.
Brentford were controlling the game without the ball.

 

[ThomasEmil]

FC statistics

 

[Infra-red]

They allowed us to have the ball. The United players appear to have given up pressing about as quickly as they did under Rangnick, so it certainly wasn't a case of us winning the ball back.

Both Potter and Frank generally prefer playing out from the back (as they did in both fixtures last season) but both of them changed tack and played long in the opening two games. Frank said after the game this was so they could target Martinez, because they knew they'd win all the second balls that way and it would allow for an easy progression up the pitch.

https://www.skysports.com/football/...rgeting-manchester-united-defender-in-4-0-win

Both Brighton and Brentford going more direct obviously had a negative impact on their share of possession, but it was very successful in winning them the games. City, Chelsea and Liverpool will probably still look to dominate the ball in games against us, but many other sides will have taken note of what Brighton and Brentford did - we'll probably finish the season with a high share of possession but a low share of the points.

 

[Superden]

if i remember, before brighton scored that breakaway goal, we had possesion for quite a while, but just couldnt get past their low block. several times a cross or through ball was on, but players werent prepared to take it on. so just a remnant of the zombie passing from days past, but a bit closer to the oppositions goal.

 

[tomaldinho1]

We really need a heat map of where the possession takes place, it's very easy to knock the ball around a back four and not make any inroads - we'd regularly have 50% plus under Mou and Ole for example. What we're hopefully building towards is kind of where Chelsea were last season - they could pin most teams around their box but lacked the ability then get in and regularly score, which is what City can do.

 

[Brwned]

We need some context here too:

When Brighton beat us 4-0 we also had 62% possession last season. Its because, once those teams go 2 goals up their best strategy is to try and hit us on the break. They weren't going for the kill anymore - and were relying on a stretched defence giving them opportunities.

That's actually why Bruno missing that chance against Brighton was such a killer for us. It gives us opportunities to do the same on the other end. We need to get better at being the team who gets the break through first and quickly, because the dynamic of the entire game changes as soon as you go up a goal.

I’m fairly sure we were dominating possession before they shut up shop too, though? It flashed up on the screen when it was 0-0, 1-0, from what I remember?

It’s the one thing that is different doing into this Liverpool game, I’d say. I don’t really expect them to dominate possession this time. Still expect a mauling though…

 

[Pogue Mahone]

We really need a heat map of where the possession takes place, it's very easy to knock the ball around a back four and not make any inroads - we'd regularly have 50% plus under Mou and Ole for example. What we're hopefully building towards is kind of where Chelsea were last season - they could pin most teams around their box but lacked the ability then get in and regularly score, which is what City can do.

Not with our goalkeeper it isn’t.

 

[justsomebloke]

I’m fairly sure we were dominating possession before they shut up shop too, though? It flashed up on the screen when it was 0-0, 1-0, from what I remember?

It’s the one thing that is different doing into this Liverpool game, I’d say. I don’t really expect them to dominate possession this time. Still expect a mauling though…

We did, massively. I remember being surprised by it.

 

[Skills]

29% possession home vs Liverpool
52% possession away vs Southampton
46% possession away vs Leicester
39% possession home vs Arsenal
46% possession away vs City

46% against City isn't bad tbf.

 

[Bojan Djordjic]

29% possession home vs Liverpool
52% possession away vs Southampton
46% possession away vs Leicester
39% possession home vs Arsenal
46% possession away vs City

46% against City isn't bad tbf.

I would be interested the possession stats per half in today's game. It felt like City were happy to cede possession in the second half today and just play United on the break. Game was over at that point.

 

[kundalini]

I would be interested the possession stats per half in today's game. It felt like City were happy to cede possession in the second half today and just play United on the break. Game was over at that point.

Whoscored have United with 39% possession in the first half, 52% in the 2nd half

 

[croadyman]

Whoscored have United with 39% possession in the first half, 52% in the 2nd half

Yeah because they were 4-1 up,wouldn't have had that much if it was still a game

 

[giggs-beckham]

29% possession home vs Liverpool
52% possession away vs Southampton
46% possession away vs Leicester
39% possession home vs Arsenal
46% possession away vs City

46% against City isn't bad tbf.

Isn't he supposed to be a coach that instills a possession based system? Early days though obviously

 

[kouroux]

29% possession home vs Liverpool
52% possession away vs Southampton
46% possession away vs Leicester
39% possession home vs Arsenal
46% possession away vs City

46% against City isn't bad tbf.

What about Brighton and Brentford ?

 

[Skills]

What about Brighton and Brentford ?

It's in the OP - when this thread was made. 63 & 67%.

 

[Arka_BleedingRed]

Keeping a high possession is good if the team can do something with it. We do not have possession oriented players, rather, we have players much more suited to counter attacking football, who can hardly utilize the ball, use movement or passing effectively, they usually make some silly mistakes and loose possession cheaply. Case in point, Rashford, Scott, Bruno, AWB, Maguire etc.

Until we get more players suited to possession play to replace these players, I would assume ETH wouldn't much a fuss about possession, rather focus on winning.

 

[croadyman]

Keeping a high possession is good if the team can do something with it. We do not have possession oriented players, rather, we have players much more suited to counter attacking football, who can hardly utilize the ball, use movement or passing effectively, they usually make some silly mistakes and loose possession cheaply. Case in point, Rashford, Scott, Bruno, AWB, Maguire etc.

Until we get more players suited to possession play to replace these players, I would assume ETH wouldn't much a fuss about possession, rather focus on winning.

Until we have someone willing to let Erik rip things up and sign possession based players nothing is gonna change

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Until we have someone willing to let Erik rip things up and sign possession based players nothing is gonna change

We let him bring in 5 new players this Summer that have all gone straight into the first team. It appears someone is willing. That’s 50% of an outfield team.

 

[croadyman]

We let him bring in 5 new players this Summer that have all gone straight into the first team. It appears someone is willing. That’s 50% of an outfield team.

Problem is he's still lumbered with players who can't pass it well enough,also too many forwards not willing to track back. Even a luxury side like City don't accept players demonstrating that trait.

 

[NoPace]

Until we have someone willing to let Erik rip things up and sign possession based players nothing is gonna change

4 of the 5 signings were probably Ten Hag signings, but I imagine you're talking more about selling Bruno and Maguire and maybe Rashford go?

Maguire should go. Rashford I have no idea what the market is. I'd love him to get going here again but it's hard not to feel like Garnacho should get the non-Sancho LW minutes (and if Garnacho becomes a starter then Sancho can be the backup RW) if he's the player we hope.

Bruno is the biggest call. You'd think he'd want to move and also big teams would be after him, even with him losing the ball too much, but he seems to be happy here and nobody big seems to have gone hard after signing him. In theory you could see him being what Coutinho was to Klopp where they sold him for a ton and then bought players that suited the manager, so like us selling Bruno to say Newcastle for 80M and then spending 200M in the summer on quality players who fit what Ten Hag wants at the #8, RB, CB, and striker positions.