I completely agree, and as if to provide an example for your point about the importance of context and circumstance, look at Marcelo Gallardo at River. Absolutely worshipped for his first stint at the club, including beating Boca in the final of the Libertadores, for which they put up a statue of him.I feel like I'm losing my mind trying to read this in-depth analysis of his coaching ability based on his time at Boro. IMO there literally isn't a more irrelevant thing to talk about than this.
Because first off, he will have access to better coaches at United who can work on the technical aspects with the team. He doesn't have to be a coaching genius. Secondly, Boro weakened in the transfer market during his reign something that 100% is not happening here. The team will have access to funds, we are constantly among the top 4 spenders. Now it seems, with the structure put in place by INEOS, we might also have better scouting and target selection in the transfer market too. If this year is anything to go by, anyway.
Thirdly, I believe in many cases with managers that their success or failure at a club is completely circumstantial, because the success equation is multi-factorial. Managers are only one part, then there's the coaches, the players, the scouting department, the board and even good ol' lady luck. My point is that previous success is rarely a good predictor for future success. A good manager can fail at a club and a bad manager can succeed and made to look good, due to other circumstances. My point is, the past is rarely a good predictor for the future and it's certainly far less accurate than the present.
Fourthly and very importantly, I am adamant that there are two ways to manage a team: One is being a very strong tactical coach like Pep or Klopp, someone who can implements their very strong vision about how the team should play football. The other one is just being a sensible decision maker, a good motivator, an intelligent people manager and someone with a bit of charisma or IT factor. That guy tends to also leave some of the tactical coaching to more drilled instructors.
Ferguson in previous decades and Ancelotti and Zidane in the recent era stand out for me as managers without exceptional tactical or coaching skills, but who succeeded in a very demanding job because they fit the latter description. Xabi Alonso on the other hand, who is considered a very strong tactical coach that drilled Leverkusen to perfection, struggled to handle the personalities at Real Madrid and was forced out in less than a year.
We also tried two such coaches recently, with reputation for drilling their own system, in ETH and Amorim and it failed spectacularly. In my opinion this approach of looking for mercurial tactical coaches and then signing targets that align with their specific tactical vision, is like betting it all on your favourite number at the roulette table. It will still end in tears 98% of the time. So, if Carrick makes it to the end of the season with no collapse and he manages to grab 3rd spot against all expectations... then for me the job is his. I don't want to start again with a brand new gamble, while things are looking good for us as is. I'd much rather we keep him and focus the energy on just strengthening the squad for next year. And I don't give single F about his time at Boro, it literally doesn't matter at all.
To give confidence and certainty to the team that this is the way the club will proceed. I'm not saying that's a good reason to do it, I agree that logically we shouldn't jump the gun, but that's the main argument for it.Why not just wait til the end of the season?
Anyone who has had a great teacher in something will know too that they always seem like they're talking about really simple and basic things, but try learning the same thing from a less skilled teacher and it will sound far, far more complicated. Being able to convey complex ideas in a simple way is at the heart of good leadership and you can tell SAF had it in spades just by listening to him speak about football.Everything is relative and narratives form easily. There’s no doubt Ferguson was the tactical mastermind behind the Aberdeen that beat Celtic, Rangers, Bayern and Real Madrid, and the Man United who won the league several times and CL. His assistants up until them were never tactical masterminds, and he often outsmarted tactically acknowledged managers. People tend to simplify the identities of things, and I think the personality on show on the sidelines and in press conferences gave more showing to his authority and engagement - he didn’t like to talk tactics in public for obvious reasons, I think - and if you’re great at onething, you can’t be great at the complementary quality as well, in simple narratives.
The main narrative I think was formed when he got Carlos Quieroz to tactically rejuvenate (particularily defensively, and more than anything for Europe, I believe). That in combination with him becoming more on the sidelines and less on the training pitch, probably gave his players of later era even more of an impression he wasn’t that fussed with tactics. But I think evidence points to him being very much the main architect even when giving Queiroz and Meulensteen more responsibility for tactical development, seen in how he wentin like a Rembrant to reorchestrate things a few times when their approaches had issues (in attack for Queiroz, defensively with Meulensteen).
The certainty is already there- he has a contract to the end of the season. Reassess it then.To give confidence and certainty to the team that this is the way the club will proceed. I'm not saying that's a good reason to do it, I agree that logically we shouldn't jump the gun, but that's the main argument for it.
To back up your post, in a book about klopp, he says there were meetings with players where he kept it brief and simple so they could remember and understand.Anyone who has had a great teacher in something will know too that they always seem like they're talking about really simple and basic things, but try learning the same thing from a less skilled teacher and it will sound far, far more complicated. Being able to convey complex ideas in a simple way is at the heart of good leadership and you can tell SAF had it in spades just by listening to him speak about football.
This ignores the fact at the same time we also need results, without results none of the other stuff actually matters which is what did for Ruben in the end, so rather than just broad stroke go we need some progressive football we need that and results and in the absence of the former we are still able to get the latter which is far more important
The next step doesn't happen if we keep changing philosophies every 6 months and don't manage two successive seasons in the Champions League.
If there's no decent manager available this summer, it makes zero chance to take another Amorim style punt especially when it could set us back massively. It's possible to have a short term plan that doesn't contradict our longer term goals.
It doesn't ignore it, it explicitly addresses it at the end of the post. Results suffering a bit is inevitable, so there's a balancing act that we need to get right. Finishing 8th and 15th as we have recently is clearly getting it wrong, but if we want to challenge for titles then we need to move to a more progressive style of football.
The momentum was created by Carrick, not Amorim — so what exactly is your argument?Imagine that this thread is serious and we are willing to give him a 3 year contract, another disaster for another three years. He's a great interim who profited from the momentum and other teams losing points massively, but let's be realistic.
I don't think anyone thinks SAF was bad at tactics, he clearly wasn't, but tactics weren't his best asset, his man-management and motivational skills were his best attributesTo add to this, i remember del bosque saying he was confident about playing man united because they were not the best tactically or something like that. It is crazy how ferguson seems to get that criticism. It is hard to picture the most successful coach ever wasn't good at tactics.
Arteta is potentially going to win a league title because all his rivals have been shit this season. They are on track to get 7 less points than a few seasons ago and are generally poorer in every metric vs that season but might win the league. They are an effective team however you want to look at it. Not good to watch a lot of the time but generally effective. They win games by dominating their opposition.
We are currently not winning games by dominating out opposition. Arsenals style is relatively sustainable even if its not optimum for winning competitive titles. Ours is just not.
In his biography Fergie said he never spent so much time in the video room as 2013, to get the title back from City. Also said he preferred to delegate the day to day coaching in his later years, as it helped him get a bird’s eye view of the team and spot issues with players in training (sometimes before the players even knew themselves, he claimed).To back up your post, in a book about klopp, he says there were meetings with players where he kept it brief and simple so they could remember and understand.
AgreedAnyone who has had a great teacher in something will know too that they always seem like they're talking about really simple and basic things, but try learning the same thing from a less skilled teacher and it will sound far, far more complicated. Being able to convey complex ideas in a simple way is at the heart of good leadership and you can tell SAF had it in spades just by listening to him speak about football.
Spot on!I feel like I'm losing my mind trying to read this in-depth analysis of his coaching ability based on his time at Boro. IMO there literally isn't a more irrelevant thing to talk about than this.
Because first off, he will have access to better coaches at United who can work on the technical aspects with the team. He doesn't have to be a coaching genius. Secondly, Boro weakened in the transfer market during his reign something that 100% is not happening here. The team will have access to funds, we are constantly among the top 4 spenders. Now it seems, with the structure put in place by INEOS, we might also have better scouting and target selection in the transfer market too. If this year is anything to go by, anyway.
Thirdly, I believe in many cases with managers that their success or failure at a club is completely circumstantial, because the success equation is multi-factorial. Managers are only one part, then there's the coaches, the players, the scouting department, the board and even good ol' lady luck. My point is that previous success is rarely a good predictor for future success. A good manager can fail at a club and a bad manager can succeed and made to look good, due to other circumstances. My point is, the past is rarely a good predictor for the future and it's certainly far less accurate than the present.
Fourthly and very importantly, I am adamant that there are two ways to manage a team: One is being a very strong tactical coach like Pep or Klopp, someone who can implements their very strong vision about how the team should play football. The other one is just being a sensible decision maker, a good motivator, an intelligent people manager and someone with a bit of charisma or IT factor. That guy tends to also leave some of the tactical coaching to more drilled instructors.
Ferguson in previous decades and Ancelotti and Zidane in the recent era stand out for me as managers without exceptional tactical or coaching skills, but who succeeded in a very demanding job because they fit the latter description. Xabi Alonso on the other hand, who is considered a very strong tactical coach that drilled Leverkusen to perfection, struggled to handle the personalities at Real Madrid and was forced out in less than a year.
We also tried two such coaches recently, with reputation for drilling their own system, in ETH and Amorim and it failed spectacularly. In my opinion this approach of looking for mercurial tactical coaches and then signing targets that align with their specific tactical vision, is like betting it all on your favourite number at the roulette table. It will still end in tears 98% of the time. So, if Carrick makes it to the end of the season with no collapse and he manages to grab 3rd spot against all expectations... then for me the job is his. I don't want to start again with a brand new gamble, while things are looking good for us as is. I'd much rather we keep him and focus the energy on just strengthening the squad for next year. And I don't give single F about his time at Boro, it literally doesn't matter at all.
Carrick has done fantastically well since he took over. Decision on whether he should be offered the permanent job should be taken in the summer, and should not be solely based on where we finish. Good results should definitely go in his favor, but I hope, our director of football looks at other factors while making the decision.
In the same vein, losing out on top 5 should not also automatically rule him out of the job. People need to remember, Amorim’s united picked up a measly 15 points from a fairly easy run of 11 games in November and December. That’s going to catch up with us at some point of time.
‘Performance posters’ (I just coined that. feel free to use it) are neglecting that we are in the ‘business end’ of the season now, where performance matters much less. Results - points, are what matters now
Don’t think anyone has an issue with the results, but the understandable focus on results masks whether he is capable of getting us performing the way we need our next manager to. The risk is that we sign him based on results, and we regress next year because he’s simply not good enough at employing a system that allows us to move to that next level. Our results have so far flattered our performances, on the whole. The sustainability is the question.
Hopefully we have a better idea by season end.
The stats would indicate the opposite, if anything.
Well I think that’s probably a leap of faith that we need to decide on. I’m sure at the moment with 10 games to go, everyone is just trying to put one foot in front of the other in the chase for results.Don’t think anyone has an issue with the results, but the understandable focus on results masks whether he is capable of getting us performing the way we need our next manager to. The risk is that we sign him based on results, and we regress next year because he’s simply not good enough at employing a system that allows us to move to that next level. Our results have so far flattered our performances, on the whole. The sustainability is the question.
Hopefully we have a better idea by season end.
It's become another one of those things that has been parroted enough times for people to take it as fact.
Same as the "can't find a tactic to beat a low block" stuff that was hilariously still being spouted after Carrick made quite obvious and bold changes to get us the equaliser against West Ham's low block.
The stats would indicate the opposite, if anything.
Are you sure? 22/23 — 84 goals from 73.9 xG. 23/24 — 71 goals from 69.5 xG . How is that a significant drop off? How can a difference of 4 goals go from very good to struggling? While also admitting they lost their best player. The top scorer in the league.That's not really what happened though, there's a few factors at play but the guy in the reddit post I linked kind of summed it up. In the first season they were genuinely very good under Carrick, but that was largely because 1) his system hadn't been worked out yet and 2) Akpom was in Championship-Bruno levels of form and they still had issues with low blocks. He lost Akpom and made Boro a more transitional side (they were barely above 50% possession that season) and they struggled, their xG dropped significantly, their xG against went up and their possession skewed much more towards their own 3rd than it previously had. The next season even more teams started to do it and they entered the dreaded horseshoe phase where they'd see lots of the ball but lower quality chances as they struggled to break teams down. They overcommitted chasing goals and got caught at the back.
You don't need to take my word for it. Look at the actual reporting on Boro from the time. Those supporters weren't playing down Carrick so he wouldn't get the Man Utd job, they were just calling it as they saw it. Better players might have gotten Boro promotion under Carrick, but he was never going to get a group of players playing the same way Kompany did at Burnley, for example.
If we win tomorrow, I'd announce him as the manager for next season. Start planning for the summer which is something we've not been able to do at this stage of the season for a while.
I mean our results have been pretty much perfect so unless you think our performances have been literally perfect then it’s not a particularly controversial statement to make, surely?
If we win tomorrow, I'd announce him as the manager for next season. Start planning for the summer which is something we've not been able to do at this stage of the season for a while.
Because the "underlying metrics" that apparently expose our performances as unsustainable don't actually support that narrative.
We were well worth the wins against City, Spurs, Everton and Palace, and the stats reflect that.
The Fulham game we slightly edged in terms of chances, but even then, we were well on top until the penalty and anyone who watched that match would agree that 3-0 would have been a fair result if Maguire hadn't lunged in.
It's only really the Arsenal and West Ham games where you could argue we were a bit lucky, but the Arsenal game was a fairly even affair, and we were basically the only side trying to create something from open play, and the West Ham game only saw them ahead in chances because Carrick made tactical changes to beat the low-block. as they were basically at one decent chance until stoppage time.
You're forgetting the first 13(?) games of the season weren't managed by Carrick. If you look at it on a per game basis for Carrick's tenure the drop off is more significant. Combine that with significant weakness at the back, less possession etc. and it's a clear drop off.Are you sure? 22/23 — 84 goals from 73.9 xG. 23/24 — 71 goals from 69.5 xG . How is that a significant drop off? How can a difference of 4 goals go from very good to struggling? While also admitting they lost their best player. The top scorer in the league.
They also lost Cameron Archer, Aaron Ramsey, Ryan Giles, Alex Mowatt, Rodrigo Muniz, and Morgan Rogers. How is that not a major rebuild? I don't agree that his system hadn't been worked out yet in the first season at its well know he transformed Boro from a defensive side into an attacking team, consistently creating high-quality chances. I feel that his system took time to implement in his second season due to turnover reflecting in the poor start where they had no wins in the first 7 games. However after getting the team to jell they really took off finishing respectively in 8th all things considered. Also taking the team to the League cup semi finals and beating Chelsea at home is no small accomplishment. Even though they lost the return match.
Defensively from the 22/23 season they had a xga of 48.3 to 55 for the 23/24 season. Would that be significant considering the changeover in personal? Also while admitting that recruitment was a problem. Not getting the right players for his system. Taking everything into account wouldn't you say that Carrick did a pretty good job with the players at his disposal and changeover? I feel that he did a really good job. JMO. If you don't agree that's fine as looking into all the fine details of Carrick's time at Boro its telling me we have the right man in charge. It also is making me more confidant that he has all the right attributes to be a top manager. So thanks for the insight.
I think we need to make sure the plan to change the footballing approach is directed from higher up than the manager. If we don't have to tear everything up after every managerial change we'll fare a lot better at not going back to square one when someone doesn't work out. So if Carrick can move us from C to B but not to A, we can simply change manager and carry on with our plan.
If we win tomorrow, I'd announce him as the manager for next season. Start planning for the summer which is something we've not been able to do at this stage of the season for a while.
