It‘s better to have a fit donkey than a lame racehorse.
Michael Carrick - Permanent Head Coach
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I don''t know which xG model you are using but on Understat, Carrick's net xG (xG - xGA) is + 7.5, while Amorim's is + 4.1 for his 17 matches that weren't against Burnley or Wolves, + 3.1 if you ignore Brighton as well.
Each of the various xG models have their own strengths and weaknesses. Shame Fbref stopped using StatsBomb's data a few years ago as their model seemed superior to the alternatives. Some of the websites take a while to update after matches, though I don't know if that's the case with your data. Understat includes the Forest match.
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I don’t mind carrot getting the job because there’s so much better going forward, but there’s no way we can sustain playing this way in Europe against some of the better teams because they will just slice us to death. Carrick has to find a happy medium with being offensively attack minded, but a little bit more sound defensively, especially through the middle of the pitch
Its a risk but he deserved the permanent job. I for one am excited for the next season.
We looked excellent in big games under Carrick.
It's the midtable teams where we looked a bit suspect at times
I'm delighted with having Carrick staying on. Smart, he gets the club and can manage the media pressure. Many of the other options mentioned for the job were too big in a gamble in my view and we need consistency right now.
You mean he needs a new midfield and strengthen our full backs and probably needs a new CB.
All things any new manager would need.
He needs serious backing this summer if we are to do well in Europe. We need a few solid signings at least.
We'd need this even without Europe.
Getting sliced apart is always a risk with carrot.
Well played.
Exactly and he has served his apprenticeship with distinction
I honestly don’t think this squad is a million miles away, if we get recruitment right in the summer.
The standard of football is so low right now. We’ve shown we can beat Arsenal, City etc.
A front four of Cunha, Mbeumo, Bruno & Sesko will always score goals.
If we strengthen behind them correctly I can see us competing for the league. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t. It’s not like this Arsenal side who’ll win it are all that.
The standard of football is so low right now. We’ve shown we can beat Arsenal, City etc.
A front four of Cunha, Mbeumo, Bruno & Sesko will always score goals.
If we strengthen behind them correctly I can see us competing for the league. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t. It’s not like this Arsenal side who’ll win it are all that.
How come Amorim got a free pass for turning us to dog shit because he took over mid season while Carrick gets none for achieving a nearly 70% win rate in the same context?
Because he’s one of our own. It’s a real theme that has been going on all the way back to Fergie times. There was a contingent then that considered Fergie outdated and were really damaged by our two losses to Barca in the CL final and wanted us to “move on” and “modernize” after Fergie and they will not accept anyone who could represent a return to Fergie style football. That’s why there’s is such excitement when we bring in outsiders who trash the club like Ragnick, Amorim, ETH, etc. They wanted the club to turn into City basically and are jealous City managed what we cannot.
But what they cannot understand is that City could do that because they started from a blank slate - no history, no footballing heritage - so it’s easier to impose a new philosophy.
They will give vague answers like how Amorim tried to revolutionize the game whereas Carrick kept it basic, just playing players in the right position somehow got the results. That's all you need in PL, not any tactical set up apparently.
Even RVN got better results in 3-4 games he managed.
Ironically the more negative that you are stylistically and in your public demeanor as a manager, the more time you'll seemingly get with certain United fans.
Under Carrick we take a lead, 1 or 2 goals and then defend which results in less possession. Under Amorim we always chased the games, more possession, more pointless shots which increase the volume of shots and cumulative xg.
Underlying stats are important but not with such small sample size, results are skewed heavily with home & away games, difficulty of the fixtures.
IMO it's a pointless exercise to give so much importance to underlying stats for half a season.
Exactly, its raw data which needs context.
Those are good points. But I think there's a bigger point that gets insufficiently acknowledged: We were already a greatly improved team by the time Carrick took over. Not just the metrics but after all also the results told a pretty clear story: What Amorim was doing was beginning to yield results. Of course, Carrick's superior results may indicate that there were better ways towards improvement than Amorim's, but the reality is not that we were stuck in the sludge until Carrick came in .
I'm also not sure that it's sufficiently appreciated what we've achieved this season. Right now, we have 29 points more than than the 39 we had after rd 37 last season. No other team in the PL is on pace for even a double digit improvement. And this in a season where the relegated teams have been better and the draws more plentiful than last year. When Amorim was sacked, we were already on pace for an improvement of 15-20 points, if I remember correctly. The strides we've taken this season are just huge.
Yeah, for half a season we just have to go with what we see in the game. Team looks more solid now than before, we are creating good amount of chances to win the games.
Can we do better? Yes, there are areas which needs improvement. There was one article which pointed out that ManUtd played midblock and conservative because of midfield, Carrick wanted to save Casemiro for entire game and also it won't help Case to bomb up and down entire game, so we had to make adjustments to play Case for entire game, which also needed some support from FB.
Not sure how true this is, but if it is then it's very well done by coaching staff, to identify the issue and mitigate it. Now the challenge is to sign players, especially midfielders who can take us to next level both with and without ball and help the team to play dominant game.
Throwing stats around without cross referencing things like line up and opposition is pointless. Were the opposition at full strength, tired, in the middle of a 2 legged semi final? The great thing about football is the low scoring nature of the sport and the endless variables. High scoring games dont give the same relevance to a variable or moment or human error.
Agreed.
Why look at his last 11 games, in particular? He was sacked after GW 20. At that point, we had 31 points. Projecting that over 38 games gives 59 points, which would be an improvement of 17 points over the previous season.
I'm good. How's yourself, Nostradamus?
He's done very well and hopefully the club get the right players in as we'll need them to hit the ground running to maintain to 4 and deal with the extra games.
I still stand by most of what I said to be honest. I don't think there's any point making predictions after 6 games. Delusional was a bit strong but I couldn't see how that team was going to finish in 3rd. Fair play to Carrick though he was able to keep the team motivated and bounce back from the defeats by immediately winning the next game which is a very positive sign.
Hopefully we win the final game and do break the 70pts.
Came into the Carrick thread and I’m reading about donkeys and carrots.
Your post was fair at the time, which shows where we were and how well the team have done.
He's earned his chance and hope he can carry on and improve on what he has built so far.
I know this Amorim XG chatrer is loosley about Carrick, but let's try to stay on topic.
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Will never happen. We will struggle for top4. But let's get surprisedCarrick taking us to the 27/28 PL title then as per Berrada’s aim. Let’s go lads
I mean... the 70pts is now a pointless target to chase, because 3rd position is already secured with a game to spare. Giving some minutes to the players who haven't featured much in the season, is more important than doing everything for a pointless 3 points at Brighton. If anything we should treat it as "target achieved". I'm sure you'll agree.
But anyhow, I hope the lesson learnt here is to not use such strong language as "delusional" or "unrealistic" for entirely possible events. Improbable as this was, it looked entirely possible 6 games into his reign. My whole point was that if he achieved this remarkable 2.3ppg average and 3rd position, the club would have no real option but to offer him a contract. And it looks like this is the case.
Shouldn't take for granted how routine it now feels winning under Carrick.
Is that 8 wins in 9 games at Old Trafford?
Is that 8 wins in 9 games at Old Trafford?
Something about pressing stats
I already addressed the delusional part and that was hyperbolic on my part.
The 70 pts was a bit tongue in cheek as that's what your referenced in the first place. I really don't mind at this stage as we can't improve on league position so it would be good to see some of the younger players get minutes if possible.
I'm a little confused how you think there's a massive difference between improbable and unrealistic. They're the same in my mind but I could be missing something.
Either way I'm delighted at the turnaround but also hope people aren't calling for his head after the first 6 games of the new season if we don't get off to the best start.
I think next season is a bit of a dream scenario for Carrick. Realistically we are not expected to win the league even if we invest big (I actually think we could, the league seems open right now and we have a good team) and I think most fans would be content with another top 4 finish and some competent cup runs i.e. not going out to Grimsby or getting knocked out the CL league stage. It's genuinely very hard to do the latter as you play such weak teams amongst the good ones, so basically have a decent season (you usually get top 5 averaging about 1.8 points, way below what he's at right now) without real pressure for silverware.
Talk about turning the season around. This is suddenly our 3rd best PL campaign post-Fergie.
Good, rest of staff seem important, especially him
Good post. Once and a while someone sees the forest through the trees.
Stats have context, and you‘ve identified a major relevant point. Well done
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