Middle East Politics

Kaos

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Politically it doesn't make sense why he's doing this now.

Was reading over social media posts by Trump supporters and they are happy because it is fulfilling some sort of Christian prophecy. Might be far fetched but anything is possible with Trump, could he be believing the same thing? Or he could be doing this to appease these supporters.
His nutty Christian fundamentalist base genuinely believe Israel's ascension would speed up the rapture and bring back the Messiah.

Must be awkward for his alt-right Nazi base though. All this George Soros anti-Semitic nonsense and then watching their orange saviour bend over for the Israeli lobbies :lol:
 

Kaos

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The Arab and Muslim world leaders will make a few statements over the next few days palatable to their audience. Then it will be all forgotten in a short time and Israel will carry on with their illegal expansion activities.

Similar to the gun lobby US politicians being financially backed by the Zionist movement will not see the error of their ways in destabilising the whole region.
ISIS will use this to recruit the angry and cause chaos throughout the world. Unfortunately meaning the number of terrorist activities will increase.

The general narrative will be to then blame Iran, Saudis, Wahhabism, Salafism and Islam.
This is all too true. The Arab world couldn't care less for the Palestinian plight outside of paying lip service to their population. The focus for them is Iran, so in that respect they consider Israel a covert ally.
 

Synco

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The Arab and Muslim world leaders will make a few statements over the next few days palatable to their audience. Then it will be all forgotten in a short time and Israel will carry on with their illegal expansion activities.

Similar to the gun lobby US politicians being financially backed by the Zionist movement will not see the error of their ways in destabilising the whole region.
ISIS will use this to recruit the angry and cause chaos throughout the world. Unfortunately meaning the number of terrorist activities will increase.

The general narrative will be to then blame Iran, Saudis, Wahhabism, Salafism and Islam.
This is all too true. The Arab world couldn't care less for the Palestinian plight outside of paying lip service to their population. The focus for them is Iran, so in that respect they consider Israel a covert ally.
No, again, it is not.

The US are Israel's close ally, and Trump is a massive idiot, but their foreign policy is not run by the "Zionist lobby". The region is instable for many reasons, homegrown ones are among them as well as outside meddling. Islamism and Islamist terrorism are developments in their own right, claiming their motives are grounded in mere "righteous anger" is simply echoing their self-justifications.

The readiness of so many people to believe that all the Middle East's woes ultimately boil down to Israel is a damn scary thing.
 
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Sultan

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No, again, it is not.

The US are Israel's close ally, and Trump is a massive idiot, but their foreign policy is not run by the "Zionist lobby". The region is instable for many reasons, homegrown ones are among them as well as outside meddling. Islamism and Islamist terrorism are developments in their own right, claiming their motives are grounded in mere "righteous anger" is simply echoing their self-justifications.

The readiness of so many people to believe that all the Middle East's woes ultimately boil down to Israel is a damn scary thing.
The clue is the words: Islamism and Islamist are relatively new terms. There was no terrorist activity in Iraq, Syria, Libya, or any other Middle East countries prior to last few decades. Iraqi invasion was the making of ISIS. The facts are there was no terrorist activity in the world prior to Russian aggression in Afghanistan when Al Qaeeda were created. The only flashpoints were in the land occupied by Israel.

If you're in denial Israel has a massive influence on US politicians you're not taking notice to the obvious.
 
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Sultan

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Even the most passive observors will see this as a provocation and sticking a finger up at the legitimate Palestinian cause. A step too far even for Israeli right wing and the Trump administration.
 

SteveJ

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Trump's endorsements are like Krusty's: he'll endorse anything or anyone which personally benefits him.
 

Adisa

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Trump creating incidents left, right and centre.
Can't the man just die?
 

Kaos

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No, again, it is not.

The US are Israel's close ally, and Trump is a massive idiot, but their foreign policy is not run by the "Zionist lobby". The region is instable for many reasons, homegrown ones are among them as well as outside meddling. Islamism and Islamist terrorism are developments in their own right, claiming their motives are grounded in mere "righteous anger" is simply echoing their self-justifications.

The readiness of so many people to believe that all the Middle East's woes ultimately boil down to Israel is a damn scary thing.
Except that wasn't what I was suggesting at all.

If you ask me, the core issues source from radical islamic terrorism being propagated by states like Saudi Arabia and exacerbated and incensed by reckless western foreign policy.

Taking the Israeli-palestinian conflict however, it would be naive to downplay the sheer influence lobbies like AIPAC have on US politics, to the extent that US elections become a competition as to who can swoon the lowest towards them. Even Obama who's probably been the president most critical of Israel in recent decades has had to pay lip service to the likes of AIPAC.

The problem here is that the US is supposed to be a mediator of peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinian yet clearly backs the Israeli horse at the expense of the Palestinians. If it wasn't obvious before (with the countless UNSC vetos on any condemntation angled towards Israel's illegal settlement program) then it certainly is now with this stupidly provocative initiative to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
 

Raoul

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Sounds like Trump is announcing this but had a slight change of heart last night and won't be moving the Embassy there.
 

Water Melon

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The Arab and Muslim world leaders will make a few statements over the next few days palatable to their audience. Then it will be all forgotten in a short time and Israel will carry on with their illegal expansion activities.

Similar to the gun lobby US politicians being financially backed by the Zionist movement will not see the error of their ways in destabilising the whole region.
ISIS will use this to recruit the angry and cause chaos throughout the world. Unfortunately meaning the number of terrorist activities will increase.

The general narrative will be to then blame Iran, Saudis, Wahhabism, Salafism and Islam.
Hear, hear.
 

adexkola

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Politically it doesn't make sense why he's doing this now.

Was reading over social media posts by Trump supporters and they are happy because it is fulfilling some sort of Christian prophecy. Might be far fetched but anything is possible with Trump, could he be believing the same thing? Or he could be doing this to appease these supporters.
Probably Pence.

In a 2002 interview with Congressional Quarterly, for example, he explained, “My support for Israel stems largely from my personal faith. In the Bible, God promises Abraham, ‘Those who bless you I will bless, and those who curse you I will curse.’ ”
What a nutter. What the feck does that have to do with foreign policy regarding Israel, I'll never understand.

Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/gods-plan-for-mike-pence/546569/
 

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How are S.Arabia ok with this. Unless the price for US support and stability for all in their country was this.

Israel and S.Arabia not at each other’s throats, using US as a broker. All in their anti-Iran aims?

Food for thought.
 

Synco

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Except that wasn't what I was suggesting at all.

If you ask me, the core issues source from radical islamic terrorism being propagated by states like Saudi Arabia and exacerbated and incensed by reckless western foreign policy.

Taking the Israeli-palestinian conflict however, it would be naive to downplay the sheer influence lobbies like AIPAC have on US politics, to the extent that US elections become a competition as to who can swoon the lowest towards them. Even Obama who's probably been the president most critical of Israel in recent decades has had to pay lip service to the likes of AIPAC.

The problem here is that the US is supposed to be a mediator of peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinian yet clearly backs the Israeli horse at the expense of the Palestinians. If it wasn't obvious before (with the countless UNSC vetos on any condemntation angled towards Israel's illegal settlement program) then it certainly is now with this stupidly provocative initiative to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
Fair enough, I read the first sentence as agreement with @Sultan's post which in my understanding amounts to just that. The points I made were an answer to that particular argumentation, so it's probably better to take the discussion over there.

On the matter of pro-Israel lobbyism: Of course it carries considerable weight in US politics, that's undeniable. But not to the point of a uniform "Zionist lobby" presumably steering US Middle East politics. That's a widespread prejudice, and again something that other post suggested in my eyes, whether intended or not.

I think the Jerusalem/capital/embassy issue actually seems a pretty good example for the limits of the influence of these lobby groups. It has been on the agenda for decades now, yet all recent US administrations, Democrat or Republican, have ultimately opted to not follow through for political considerations, time and time again. Lobbying existed all the time, but it didn't make the difference. It took a chronically impatient idiot, who doesn't care much about the established mechanisms of politics and diplomacy, to make that move.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerusalem_Embassy_Act
 

berbatrick

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Taking the Israeli-palestinian conflict however, it would be naive to downplay the sheer influence lobbies like AIPAC have on US politics, to the extent that US elections become a competition as to who can swoon the lowest towards them. Even Obama who's probably been the president most critical of Israel in recent decades has had to pay lip service to the likes of AIPAC.
Bernie skipped AIPAC this time, just before the NY primary. I was amazed.

Fair enough, I read the first sentence as agreement with @Sultan's post which in my understanding amounts to just that. The points I made were an answer to that particular argumentation, so it's probably better to take the discussion over there.

On the matter of pro-Israel lobbyism: Of course it carries considerable weight in US politics, that's undeniable. But not to the point of a uniform "Zionist lobby" presumably steering US Middle East politics. That's a widespread prejudice, and again something that other post suggested in my eyes, whether intended or not.

I think the Jerusalem/capital/embassy issue actually seems a pretty good example for the limits of the influence of these lobby groups. It has been on the agenda for decades now, yet all recent US administrations, Democrat or Republican, have ultimately opted to not follow through for political considerations, time and time again. Lobbying existed all the time, but it didn't make the difference. It took a chronically impatient idiot, who doesn't care much about the established mechanisms of politics and diplomacy, to make that move.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerusalem_Embassy_Act
The US does have a unique position wrt Israel. That act itself (even the thinking behind it) would be very very far from possible in any other major country. I posted an article here that there is a provision within *US* law that they will cease to recognise the PA if they take Israel to the ICC. Which is just breathtaking. There are many state laws against BDS - if you want any contract with the Texas govt, you need to swear you will never boycott settlement/Israeli goods. Again, in the land of the 1st amendment and vocal free-speech warriors, this is amazing. And while BDS is popular among students, anti-BDS is strong among campus administrators and funders and has ha serious impacts (stopped courses, denied tenure)
 

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The facts are there was no terrorist activity in the world prior to Russian aggression in Afghanistan when Al Qaeeda were created. The only flashpoints were in the land occupied by Israel.
Wtf?! Terrorism has been around for 1,000’s of years. How did WWI start for example?
 

Sultan

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Bernie skipped AIPAC this time, just before the NY primary. I was amazed.



The US does have a unique position wrt Israel. That act itself (even the thinking behind it) would be very very far from possible in any other major country. I posted an article here that there is a provision within *US* law that they will cease to recognise the PA if they take Israel to the ICC. Which is just breathtaking. There are many state laws against BDS - if you want any contract with the Texas govt, you need to swear you will never boycott settlement/Israeli goods. Again, in the land of the 1st amendment and vocal free-speech warriors, this is amazing. And while BDS is popular among students, anti-BDS is strong among campus administrators and funders and has ha serious impacts (stopped courses, denied tenure)
Until very recently in the UK you would not be eligible to contest a Parliamentary seat unless you signed a "friends of Israel" declaration. Our local MP and her Jewish husband are barred from entering Israel for questioning and debating their conduct in Parliament. So much for being the only democracy and a beacon of free speech in the Middle East.
 

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@berbatrick @Raoul

What do you guys think about the fact that US Congress or Senate get forced to sign the AIPAC Loyalty Oath or they are hounded out and funding removed from them unless they toe the line?

I find this inconceivable that this would be allowed to happen. Is it nothing short of treason to put another countries interests over your own or am I overacting? The tail is wagging the dog.
 

EyeInTheSky

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Until very recently in the UK you would not be eligible to contest a Parliamentary seat unless you signed a "friends of Israel" declaration. Our local MP and her Jewish husband are barred from entering Israel for questioning and debating their conduct in Parliament. So much for being the only democracy and a beacon of free speech in the Middle East.
So it does happen in the UK as well. See my post below regarding the similar and more virulent pledge in the US.
 

2cents

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That's going to be one lonely embassy. Although based on UN voting records on the status of Jerusalem, maybe Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau and Tuvalu will join them. :lol:
Some reports that the Philippines and the Czech Republic (Czechia now?) are considering the move. Interestingly, plenty of other countries had embassies in Jerusalem up to the 1980s, and apparently El Salvador and Costa Rica only moved to Tel Aviv in the 2000s.

The clue is the words: Islamism and Islamist are relatively new terms. There was no terrorist activity in Iraq, Syria, Libya, or any other Middle East countries prior to last few decades. Iraqi invasion was the making of ISIS. The facts are there was no terrorist activity in the world prior to Russian aggression in Afghanistan when Al Qaeeda were created.
Assuming you mean Islamist militancy, try googling for:

Shukri Mustafa (1970s)
The Muslim Brotherhood insurgency in Syria (1976-82)
Assassination of Anwar Sadat (1981)
Grand Mosque Siege of Mecca (1979)

All pre-dating the founding of al Qaeda, the first three inspired by the Qutbist wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, and only the killing of Sadat linked to Israel in any way (Sadat was killed for signing a peace deal with Begin).

Even the most passive observors will see this as a provocation and sticking a finger up at the legitimate Palestinian cause. A step too far even for Israeli right wing and the Trump administration.
You underestimate their right wing.
It's not really a right/left issue in Israel. Some Israeli leftists will moan about the potential repercussions and inconveniences, but the mainstream parties of right and left are on board with it, whatever the opposition may try to imply in the coming days. Not a single Zionist politician in Israel would turn down the chance of claiming to have persuaded the superpower to do this.

Until very recently in the UK you would not be eligible to contest a Parliamentary seat unless you signed a "friends of Israel" declaration. Our local MP and her Jewish husband are barred from entering Israel for questioning and debating their conduct in Parliament. So much for being the only democracy and a beacon of free speech in the Middle East.
Are you saying that British MPs such as George Galloway, Tony Benn, and Jeremy Corbyn have signed such a declaration?

@berbatrick @Raoul

What do you guys think about the fact that US Congress or Senate get forced to sign the AIPAC Loyalty Oath or they are hounded out and funding removed from them unless they toe the line?

I find this inconceivable that this would be allowed to happen. Is it nothing short of treason to put another countries interests over your own or am I overacting? The tail is wagging the dog.
Have you got a link for this? A quick google of "AIPAC loyalty oath" leads to Veterans Today and a claim by Cynthia McKinney.

On the influence of Israel in American politics and the success of the Israel lobby, there's no real mystery involved. Right or wrong, Israel remains quite popular with Americans, especially in contrast with the Palestinians and Arabs in general. Not just because of the obvious religious angle, although that's major, but due also to the obvious similarities in the narratives they hold about how they came about - refugees escaping persecution from Europe, settling in the New World/Promised land, bringing civilization to the natives, etc.
 

Synco

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The clue is the words: Islamism and Islamist are relatively new terms. There was no terrorist activity in Iraq, Syria, Libya, or any other Middle East countries prior to last few decades. Iraqi invasion was the making of ISIS. The facts are there was no terrorist activity in the world prior to Russian aggression in Afghanistan when Al Qaeeda were created. The only flashpoints were in the land occupied by Israel.
There still remains a gap that you cannot bridge with this interpretation. How do we come from 'anger about imperialism' to killing Muslim 'apostates', throwing gays from rooftops, oppressing and violating women by law and deed, committing massacres in mosques, synagogues, bars, schools, kindergartens? Where is the missing link?

To me, the reason for this gap is that your depiction of Islamist terrorism as mainly driven by anti-imperialism confuses the appearance of Islamism under conditions of strategical defense with the nature of the thing. Like all authoritarian revolutionary movements, they can present themselves as more virtuous - freedom fighters - when in opposition (if you choose not to take a closer look).

What various kinds of Islamic fundamentalism look like when in power can be seen on the examples of Saudi-Arabia, Iran, the ISIS caliphate, or Afghanistan under the Taliban. Reports on the Gaza strip under Hamas rule suggest similar. And imo that's much closer to what they're about.
If you're in denial Israel has a massive influence on US politicians you're not taking notice to the obvious.
Depending on how it is put, I don't deny that, but I specifically criticized the way you depicted it.
 
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Sultan

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What various kinds of Islamic fundamentalism look like when in power can be seen on the examples of Saudi-Arabia, Iran, the ISIS caliphate, or Afghanistan under the Taliban. Reports on the Gaza strip under Hamas rule suggest similar. And imo that's much closer to what they're about.
Hamas, ISIS, Al Qaeeda and their likes in my opinion have done a massive disservice to the legitimate causes of Palestinians. They deserve to be called out on their actions. However, I rarely, if ever, hear any acknowledgement from friends of Israel the devastation, massacres and misery they have caused the Palestinians. State sponsored terrorism by Israel under the guise of self protection is on a another scale. Just because the Israelis' are suited fundamentalists, elected by a fundamentalist population does not make them any better than any other terrorist group. Basically Fundamentalists have created counter fundamentalists. That is the reality of the region.
 

Synco

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Hamas, ISIS, Al Qaeeda and their likes in my opinion have done a massive disservice to the legitimate causes of Palestinians. They deserve to be called out on their actions. However, I rarely, if ever, hear any acknowledgement from friends of Israel the devastation, massacres and misery they have caused the Palestinians. State sponsored terrorism by Israel under the guise of self protection is on a another scale. Just because the Israelis' are suited fundamentalists, elected by a fundamentalist population does not make them any better than any other terrorist group. Basically Fundamentalists have created counter fundamentalists. That is the reality of the region.
As ugly as many aspects of Israeli wars and the occupation were and are, I don't think it has been on another scale to what has happened in other ME war zones. Both currently and historically. Also not to the methods of the Arab/Palestinian militants over the decades, whose damage was only limited (in relative terms) due to being the weaker side. So a different scale in terms of military power, absolutely, but in terms of general brutality, no.

What is often markedly different, though, is the perception. But I feel going deeper into this issue will only lead to bitter fights here, so perhaps it's best to leave this topic alone for now.
 

2cents

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The Palestinians have an opportunity here, although they might not see it as their leadership tries to whip them up into a violent rage. They should declare the two-state solution dead on the basis that the US has negated its commitments to the Oslo process, and immediately begin a peaceful campaign for the granting of Israeli citizenship to the Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza.
 

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The clue is the words: Islamism and Islamist are relatively new terms. There was no terrorist activity in Iraq, Syria, Libya, or any other Middle East countries prior to last few decades. Iraqi invasion was the making of ISIS. The was no terrorist activity in the world prior to Russian aggression in Afghanistan when Al Qaeeda were created. The only flashpoints were in the land occupied by Israel.

If you're in denial Israel has a massive influence on US politicians you're not taking notice to the obvious.
Would guess some of the following might fall outside your time line.


Munich Olympic attack.
Hijacking to Entebbe.
Lockerbie
Air India Flight 182
Various terror attacks related to Ireland and England.
Cinema Rex Fire
1983 Beirut Barracks plus various kidnap pings of westerners in Lebanon.
OPEC siege
March 1984 attacks by Libyan nationals at Manchester and London airports.
Taking and holding of hostages at the US embassy in Tehran.
Various killings bombings etc related to drug cartels starting as far back as the 70's.
Oklahoma City Bombing
Various terror attacks committed by pro-communist groups in Europe in the 70's.
Unabomber.
Bombings by pro Puerto Rico independence groups.
Several bombings related to the anti-war protests in the US in the 60's and 70's.
And on and on and on
 
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Synco

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The US does have a unique position wrt Israel. That act itself (even the thinking behind it) would be very very far from possible in any other major country. I posted an article here that there is a provision within *US* law that they will cease to recognise the PA if they take Israel to the ICC. Which is just breathtaking. There are many state laws against BDS - if you want any contract with the Texas govt, you need to swear you will never boycott settlement/Israeli goods. Again, in the land of the 1st amendment and vocal free-speech warriors, this is amazing. And while BDS is popular among students, anti-BDS is strong among campus administrators and funders and has ha serious impacts (stopped courses, denied tenure)
Sure, a unique relationship between Israel and the US exists for many reasons, I already meant to acknowledge this in the post you quoted. But my general point was more that any discussion on these issues has to first seperate facts from fiction. And as various recent discussion strands in this and the Iraq/Syria thread show, that is a major problem. There's just so much stuff made up, left out, blown out of proportion about Israel and the Middle East in general.

On the two specific issues you mention: The US seem to have a knack for making bizarre laws possible, even some of those who backed that BDS one felt a bit embarassed after the hurricane relief farce. Something like this shouldn't exist, but at the same time I have no truck with BDS at all. I also don't suspect the division lines to be as clear cut as you seem to do, I'm sure there are other students who are uncomfortable with or feel intimidated by the surrounding activism.

I haven't read the article (yet), but I generally don't pay too much attention to that "international community"/UN/ICC etc. hassle. There's a certain pathos surrounding these institutions, but in the end they are barely more than an arena for political/diplomatic dodges from all parties, loaded with the usual fake moralism. I don't know what specific acts the Palestinian side plan to charge Israel with, but when it comes to war crimes, I mean, their own tactics consisted of massacres for decades.
 

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The Palestinians have an opportunity here, although they might not see it as their leadership tries to whip them up into a violent rage. They should declare the two-state solution dead on the basis that the US has negated its commitments to the Oslo process, and immediately begin a peaceful campaign for the granting of Israeli citizenship to the Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza.
Agreed. But I wonder what the Israeli right wing have in mind. They must have known that this would kill the 2 state solution. And they definitely know what a one state solution with equal rights for all would mean.

One suspects they either want to go with the apartheid bantustan model (which one imagines would become untenable given world opinion on apartheid) or they are banking on war, in which case they can carry out a third Nakba.
 

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I haven't read the article (yet), but I generally don't pay too much attention to that "international community"/UN/ICC etc. hassle. There's a certain pathos surrounding these institutions, but in the end they are barely more than an arena for political/diplomatic dodges from all parties, loaded with the usual fake moralism. I don't know what specific acts the Palestinian side plan to charge Israel with, but when it comes to war crimes, I mean, their own tactics consisted of massacres for decades.
The settlements are the focus of the ICC preliminary investigation. Violation of Fourth Geneva Convention is a war crime.
 

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Some reports that the Philippines and the Czech Republic (Czechia now?) are considering the move. Interestingly, plenty of other countries had embassies in Jerusalem up to the 1980s, and apparently El Salvador and Costa Rica only moved to Tel Aviv in the 2000s.
There was a UN General Assembly vote passed on Jerusalem last week. It passed 151-6 (Canada, Federated States of Micronesia, Israel, Marshall Islands, Nauru, United States). The usual. Not one state in all of Europe, Africa, Asia and South America supports Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem.
 

2cents

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There was a UN General Assembly vote passed on Jerusalem last week. It passed 151-6 (Canada, Federated States of Micronesia, Israel, Marshall Islands, Nauru, United States). The usual. Not one state in all of Europe, Africa, Asia and South America supports Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem.
CZECH REPUBLIC ANNOUNCES IT RECOGNIZES WEST JERUSALEM AS ISRAEL'S CAPITAL

Philippines and Czech Republic consider moving embassies to Jerusalem after Trump announcement, report
 

rotherham_red

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As ugly as many aspects of Israeli wars and the occupation were and are, I don't think it has been on another scale to what has happened in other ME war zones. Both currently and historically. Also not to the methods of the Arab/Palestinian militants over the decades, whose damage was only limited (in relative terms) due to being the weaker side. So a different scale in terms of military power, absolutely, but in terms of general brutality, no.

What is often markedly different, though, is the perception. But I feel going deeper into this issue will only lead to bitter fights here, so perhaps it's best to leave this topic alone for now.
The use of white phosphorus on civilian populations, the brutalisation of the last two to three generations of Palestinian children (i.e. the fact that you can get years in jail for throwing a fecking stone at a fully kitted out soldier), and so many other aspects of Israeli rule in the region betray the image you are trying to present of Israel... And I won't even begin on what happened in Hebron, where an innocent population was punished for being the victims of a terror attack perpetrated by a squatter-settler. If you want to see what the Israeli apartheid regime will look like if taken to its nth degree, then you need look no further than Hebron.