Myanmar army detains country's leader Aung San Suu Kyi, president and other high-profile political leaders amid coup fears

Desert Eagle

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Death toll has reportedly risen close to 300 in the meantime, with about 2000 imprisoned. Reports also say about 600 prisoners have just been released. The opposition tries to pressurize the junta with mass civil disobedience, like strikes on services of everyday life.

The coup is still a bit puzzling to me, as the military seemed to have a firm grip on politics even with the more-or-less democracy in place. Not sure what credible threat Suu Kyi would have posed to that order, even in light of the landslide election result. From the little I know, it looks very much as if personal ambition must have played a major part in the decision for a coup.
The coup leader is the godson of general Prem. An infamous thai general who also acted as pm for almost a decade. It's a thing with generals in this part of the world. Thailand, Myanmar and until recently Indonesia. They control the guns and therefore the country. The youngest casualty passed away today. A 7 year old girl.
 

Gehrman

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Death toll has reportedly risen close to 300 in the meantime, with about 2000 imprisoned. Reports also say about 600 prisoners have just been released. The opposition tries to pressurize the junta with mass civil disobedience, like strikes on services of everyday life.

The coup is still a bit puzzling to me, as the military seemed to have a firm grip on politics even with the more-or-less democracy in place. Not sure what credible threat Suu Kyi would have posed to that order, even in light of the landslide election result. From the little I know, it looks very much as if personal ambition must have played a major part in the decision for a coup.
I think maybe it was a more longterm prospect. The more they get used to democracy the more they would pressure the milltary to relinquish power. Its not out of the question that the CCP might have put pressure on them.
 

Karel Podolsky

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The coup leader is the godson of general Prem. An infamous thai general who also acted as pm for almost a decade. It's a thing with generals in this part of the world. Thailand, Myanmar and until recently Indonesia. They control the guns and therefore the country. The youngest casualty passed away today. A 7 year old girl.
What?

I don't have TVs and don't read local news. I may miss something in my country.
 

Desert Eagle

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Karel Podolsky

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https://www.brookings.edu/articles/...ilitary-relations-and-democracy-in-indonesia/

Plenty of articles if you want to go back. Indonesia has obviously gone through the toppling of Suharto and stopping military personnel from getting directly involved in politics. However a lot of similarities in the conflicts between the people and dictatorships in South East Asia.
Right.
I misread it "recently" not "until recently" though I bolded it.

99% Indonesians think Suharto was a hero/good president.
May he rot in hell!
 

Desert Eagle

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Scumbag Putin has sent a representative to broker more ties to the military junta. Not only selling them weapons to kill their own people but trying to offer them legitimacy. In better news the rebel army has apparently successfully retake a military base. This looks like it's going to be long and deadly civil war with the results hard to predict.
 

Solius

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89 shot dead including children. That’s fecking insane. At what point does another country step in?
 

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Scumbag Putin has sent a representative to broker more ties to the military junta. Not only selling them weapons to kill their own people but trying to offer them legitimacy. In better news the rebel army has apparently successfully retake a military base. This looks like it's going to be long and deadly civil war with the results hard to predict.
There’s a rebel army now? You know anything about its composition?
 

The United

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There’s a rebel army now? You know anything about its composition?
There are a lot of ethnic armed forces who signed a treaty with the previous governments to siege their activities. But, it is gone in the wind now. So, there have been skirmishes around.

They are trying to form a 'federal army' which will unit most of them against the military. We will have to wait and see how it goes. Burmese military is well equipped and battled hardened for its size. It will not be easy.

Plus China is backing them.
 

Desert Eagle

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Russia China India Pakistan Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam and Laos all sent representatives to Myanmar for their military day. May i take this opportunity to say feck you to all of them.
 

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There’s a rebel army now? You know anything about its composition?
When I was visiting North Myanmar I was in a town where I saw a rebel army doing drills and formation in a Buddhist monastery. Locals told me it was the State guerrilla that was fighting the government army. Arms were supplied by china. I have 0 knowledge of what good military equipment is but their uniforms and guns/rifles looked shinny new. After the drills, most of them went to sleep inside the village houses. Apparently there is the 2 most northern-est states (Shan and Kachin) that somewhat fight guerrilla war with the government to get independence but I don't know how real it is

But I am sure some Burmese posters from here know much more
 

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There are a lot of ethnic armed forces who signed a treaty with the previous governments to siege their activities. But, it is gone in the wind now. So, there have been skirmishes around.

They are trying to form a 'federal army' which will unit most of them against the military. We will have to wait and see how it goes. Burmese military is well equipped and battled hardened for its size. It will not be easy.

Plus China is backing them.
Could you explain this a bit more mate? When you say ethnic armed forces, what are their purposes? A homeland for their ethnic group? More rights? Just generally an overthrow of the military junta? And do they all have overlapping aims?

Sorry about everything that is going on over there, hope you're staying safe.
 

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Could you explain this a bit more mate? When you say ethnic armed forces, what are their purposes? A homeland for their ethnic group? More rights? Just generally an overthrow of the military junta? And do they all have overlapping aims?

Sorry about everything that is going on over there, hope you're staying safe.
Myanmar has different ethnic groups and they are in several states. several ethnic groups had been forming their military groups since the decolonization. Some of this ethnic groups were promised back in the 40s to get a referendum of independence in 10 years if they were not happy with the Myanmar government but it was not honored. Along the decades several military groups had been formed, fought against the government reach peace treates, fought again, created military alliances again rinse and repeat.

I guess this coup changed how they see the treaties that they reached with the "democratic" government previous to the coup
 

The United

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Could you explain this a bit more mate? When you say ethnic armed forces, what are their purposes? A homeland for their ethnic group? More rights? Just generally an overthrow of the military junta? And do they all have overlapping aims?

Sorry about everything that is going on over there, hope you're staying safe.
The history and purposes of those are a bit complicated. The likes of China and even Thailand grommed them for their own interests for decades in the past.

In Shan state, there were about 8 or so armed forces. The 3 biggest keep their own territories and would fight any that step into. Those area swere well known for producing heroin and part of the infamous Golden triangle. They are so well equipped that even the military avoid having conflict with them. China probably back them as well.

But, most of others wanted to have more rights, a right to govern their own. The military has denied it since 1962. They thought it will break the union. So, they cracked down on them brutally.

Many of them have been weakened in the past decade. And, the stronger ones play politics with whoever has the central power.

Some of them lost their true purposes and went for individual interests. Most of their senior leaders are living rich in countries like Thailand or China while their foot soldiers are doing the dirty work. Their income sources are shady of course since they can't get any legitimate funds.

Failures of the previous government in the past 6 decades to do anything tangible for minority ethnic groups kept all the mess alive for as long as it has.

Now, the disposed government is trying to negotiate with all of them to unite against the military on the promises of giving them more and equal rights in a federal system.
 
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calodo2003

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89 shot dead including children. That’s fecking insane. At what point does another country step in?
I can see some right wingers using Myanmar in some propaganda grift to get donations from the flock.

‘Myanmar is what happens when a country doesn’t have a SECOND AMENDMENT!!! Will you donate $1 $5 $1000 so we can ensure America will never become Myanmar?!?’
 

VorZakone

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I can see some right wingers using Myanmar in some propaganda grift to get donations from the flock.

‘Myanmar is what happens when a country doesn’t have a SECOND AMENDMENT!!! Will you donate $1 $5 $1000 so we can ensure America will never become Myanmar?!?’
You're giving them ideas!
 

Synco

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Now, the disposed government is trying to negotiate with all of them to unite against the military on the promises of giving them more and equal rights in a federal system.
How much chances do you see for this to happen?
 

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And I'm all out of bubblegum.
I can see some right wingers using Myanmar in some propaganda grift to get donations from the flock.

‘Myanmar is what happens when a country doesn’t have a SECOND AMENDMENT!!! Will you donate $1 $5 $1000 so we can ensure America will never become Myanmar?!?’
The American right are doing the opposite. They're pointing to Myanmar as an example of what should have happened in the US.
 

calodo2003

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The American right are doing the opposite. They're pointing to Myanmar as an example of what should have happened in the US.
This is the grift to the more erudite, sophisticated element of their party, the high dollar donor, the grift that requires more than just a couple of hundred characters to close.

The 2A grift is geared to the 5 cent slot machine players, the numbers base.

But I can see both being used, no doubt.
 

The United

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How much chances do you see for this to happen?
Close to 0.

They are literally trying to crowdfund for the expenses. Who is going to sell the weapons? Who will train them? etc. For some groups, it would be better for them with military government as they can do what they please. Let us be and we won't fight you. With a democratic government, they will be under pressure to disband or fight to the death due to the way they are making their money. China would not let that happen as well. That is assuming that those groups will be fine with the way the territories will be divided among them in ONE state. We have 14 states and about 7 states have armed groups.

And, Burmese military is well equipped for its size.

The only way to dispose the junta is to do 100% civil disobedience movement for months. And, for that, many (many) will die and go to jail every day. Assuming no western countries directly help.
 
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Synco

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Close to 0. They are literally trying to crowdfund for the expense. Who is going to sell the weapons? Who will train them? etc. For some groups, it would be better for them with military government as they can do what they please. Under a bit more democratic government, most of their income will stop. China would not let that happen as well.

And, Burmese military is well equipped for its size.

The only way to dispose the junta is to do 100% civil disobedience movement for months. And, for that, many (many) will die and go to jail every day. Assuming no western countries directly help.
Cheers. What a grim situation overall.

I was also asking because a friend (who knows Myanmar from professional work) assessed that minority ethnic groups (can't say if he meant some or all) have little reason to trust the old government, for its past role inside the country's power structure. So I wondered if there's a possibility that some of them can still be drawn to their side.
 

The United

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Cheers. What a grim situation overall.

I was also asking because a friend (who knows Myanmar from professional work) assessed that minority ethnic groups (can't say if he meant some or all) have little reason to trust the old government, for its past role inside the country's power structure. So I wondered if there's a possibility that some of them can still be drawn to their side.
It really is.

Su Kyi's government had its limitations mainly because the military was just watching them over. She tried both soft and hard ways and didn't succeed. Creating a federal system is doable if military just stays out of the politic all together. Any time any sign of any reform will happen, they would just take the power every single time in the past 60 years or so. The congress had 25% from non elected members from military. And, more than 75% of vote were needed to amend certain parts the constitution (which was created by military in 2008) to lessen their influence and kick them out of the congress. Which means it would never happen.

Su Kyi's government can not be blamed for everything with all the mess and promises that she gave. Military controls all the armed forces and most of justice system. Once the military thought Su Kyi thought she was able to make a move on them, this happened.
 
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Eyepopper

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If only they had rich natural resources and there was something the West could do about it :(
 

4bars

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If only they had rich natural resources and there was something the West could do about it :(
Like raid them to the ground in the name of freedom and "help them reconstruct with a PIB per capita a 10% than before paying for the reconstruction
 

4bars

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It really is.

Su Kyi's government had its limitations mainly because the military was just watching them over. She tried both soft and hard ways and didn't succeed. Creating a federal system is doable if military just stays out of the politic all together. Any time any sign of any reform will happen, they would just take the power every single time in the past 60 years or so. The congress had 25% from non elected members from military. And, more than 75% of vote were needed to amend certain parts the constitution (which was created by military in 2008) to lessen their influence and kick them out of the congress. Which means it would never happen.

Su Kyi's government can not be blamed for everything with all the mess and promises that she gave. Military controls all the armed forces and most of justice system. Once the military thought Su Kyi thought she was able to make a move on them, this happened.
Oh wow. There is no way walk the path towards a democracy with this
 

The United

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Oh wow. There is no way walk the path towards a democracy with this
Suu Kyi had increasingly distanced herself from military for awhile. Didn't even ask for help with the covid from military who had resources and was itching to show how much they 'care' about the country.

The generals thought it was disrespectful to them. There was some momentum from people to put pressure to modify the 2008 constitution right before the covid.

Everyone praised how Su Kyi's government dealt with early outbreaks of covid 19 and still everyone was on board with their plans in later stages.

The military saw it as a threat to their agenda as "the saviors" of the country while it was getting more and more distance with them, and people listened to more of Su Kyi's government. They accused them of being dictators which is funny as that's what they had been for the past 50 years or so.

So, they created some BS and justified the coup with it hoping the resistance would be minimal with people and economic being devastated by the covid.

They called their act of the coup as ' the balancing act' and saving the country from 'dictatorship'.

You can't just make it up.
 
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4bars

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Suu Kyi had increasingly distanced herself from military for awhile. Didn't even ask for help with the covid from military who had resources and was itching to show how much they 'care' about the country.

The generals thought it was disrespectful to them. There was some momentum from people to put pressure to modify the 2008 constitution right before the covid.

Everyone praised how Su Kyi's government dealt with early outbreaks of covid 19 and still everyone was on board with their plans in later stages.

The military saw it as a threat to their agenda as "the saviors" of the country while it was getting more and more distance with them, and people listened to more of Su Kyi's government. They accused them of being dictators which is funny as that's what they had been for the past 50 years or so.

So, they created some BS and justified the coup with it hoping the resistance would be minimal with people and economic being devastated by the covid.

They called their act of the coup as ' the balancing act' and saving the country from 'dictatorship'.

You can't just make it up.
So basically fear of losing control. Show that they are still there, retrieve the few well greased democratic mechanisms that had been implemented, disrupt democracy and start over. Hope people raise against them and overthrow them, but as you said, will cost so many lives.
 

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The world watches on as thai country sinks further into the abyss.
The US would be well in there as a "peace keeper " if there was oil I bet.

Are the UN just going to stand by and watch?
 

Adisa

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The world watches on as thai country sinks further into the abyss.
The US would be well in there as a "peace keeper " if there was oil I bet.

Are the UN just going to stand by and watch?
Intervention of any kind is suicide politics at the moment. That's all that matters to these people.
There is nothing much anyone can do.
 

Gehrman

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The world watches on as thai country sinks further into the abyss.
The US would be well in there as a "peace keeper " if there was oil I bet.

Are the UN just going to stand by and watch?
The UN has been pretty pointless for ages now. At least on these matters.